The US Census Bureau thread

[Crawford]

I find the DC numbers surprising. DC has all the ingredients (wealth, education, mobile jobs, fed govt. went remote, people basically live there for their jobs) for huge temporary outmigration.

But I agree that the numbers are probably bull, even if the snapshot of a particular moment isn't meaningless.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I mean, you really think a lot of Detroiters were hanging out on Florida beaches, or in the Tetons, during the pandemic?

This imputation was taken at the height of the pandemic. SF had the worst loss bc it's wealthy and mobile. Affluent households with mobile jobs and second homes. If Manhattan were a city, I bet you it would have been much worse than SF. The Upper East Side was basically a ghost town during peak pandemic.

It would be really weird if Detroit (city proper) had extensive temporary Covid migration.

Both St. Louis and Cleveland saw 0.5% annual drops in the 2010s turn into multiples of that in these estimates, while Detroit stayed right at its 2010s trend. True, these numbers are likely nonsense, but Detroit holding its own caught my eye. I mean, St. Louis residents won't be in the Tetons either but St. Louis saw its yearly decline go up by a factor of 5.

(Yes, I acknowledge this may just be the 2022 version of the Romans trying to read the future from entrails.)

As for Manhattan, we do have those numbers from each borough being a county.

Brooklyn......2,736,074......2,641,052.....-3.5%
Queens......2,405,464......2,331,143.....-3.1%
Manhattan......1,694,251......1,576,876.....-6.9%
Bronx......1,472,654......1,424,948.....-3.2%
Staten Island......495,747......493,494.....-0.5%

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I find the DC numbers surprising. DC has all the ingredients (wealth, education, mobile jobs, fed govt. went remote, people basically live there for their jobs) for huge temporary outmigration.

Numerically and percentage-wise, DC's estimated drop is right in Boston's same range, which seems about right. The only two places that were significantly higher were Manhattan and SF, which seems about right as they're the two densest urban pressure cookers, loaded with very rich people looking to temporarily get the hell outta dodge during the worst of covid. boston and DC aren't quite as dense.

But again, who knows if any of these figures even depict any real reality.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It would be really weird if Detroit (city proper) had extensive temporary Covid migration.

It wouldn't be weird at all, there are tons of white collar high earners in central Detroit that can temporarily ditch the city and many of them did.

[chris08876]

Hopefully the next few years will have much better numbers, and yeah, also considering the impact on the census and the numbers for 2021. I got a little sad with the Philly numbers but hopefully better figures in the years to come.

I thought Los Angeles cracked the 4 million mark. The city proper seems to grow so slow...

The growth with Dallas and Houston has been incredible. Glad NYC gained folks... should shed the notion that the city is dying (it isn't!!!).

[chris08876]

Yeah these figures are definitely BS. Was checking out the change for Miami. Ridiculously low! The city apparently lost 2000 people.

[chris08876]

[summersm343]

Yep. Numbers are BS. I like the way Crawford described it: “a snapshot of a particular moment” in time.

These numbers, if accurate, show temporary population loses of US cities during a global pandemic. They do not show a new trend. If you walk around Philadelphia today, no one with eyes and a brain would say this city lost 27,000+ people. Most neighborhoods are just as busy if not busier than before the pandemic.

[BnaBreaker]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Yep. Numbers are BS. I like the way Crawford described it: “a snapshot of a particular moment” in time.

These numbers, if accurate, show temporary population loses of US cities during a global pandemic. They do not show a new trend. If you walk around Philadelphia today, no one with eyes and a brain would say this city lost 27,000+ people. Most neighborhoods are just as busy if not busier than before the pandemic.

More like a quick, rough water color painting of a particular moment in time.

[Innsertnamehere]

They are likely relatively accurate for July 1, 2021, though. Doesn't mean the July 1, 2022 numbers are going to show the same thing.

Remember that it's not all necessarily just people moving away, too. Over a million people have died of a disease in the last 2 years that didn't exist previously. Those excess deaths had a real impact on population figures, in addition to the amount of people moving out to rural areas because of work from home.

Trends will likely revert to growth again now that excess deaths have dropped and potentially will stay down next fall (or at least lower than in the past), and with people returning to cities for work again, but I don't think we can dismiss these population losses as just a bunch of mumbo-jumbo nonsense.

[benp]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Yep. Numbers are BS. I like the way Crawford described it: “a snapshot of a particular moment” in time.

These numbers, if accurate, show temporary population loses of US cities during a global pandemic. They do not show a new trend. If you walk around Philadelphia today, no one with eyes and a brain would say this city lost 27,000+ people. Most neighborhoods are just as busy if not busier than before the pandemic.

Deaths in the US increased by 15-20% during the pandemic. That certainly had an effect on population, though many of those people were unseen - elderly, preexisting conditions, etc.

Also, foreign immigration was at its lowest in decades, and the US birth rate continued to decline, taking even a much bigger record drop in 2020.

Changes weren't all just relocations, WFH, etc. - and not just people you see out on the streets.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

but I don't think we can dismiss these population losses as just a bunch of mumbo-jumbo nonsense.

I've been dismissing CB estimates of Chicago as "a bunch of mumbo-jumbo nonsense" for the past 3 decades because they ALWAYS get this city wrong.

When they estimate Chicago is losing population, the city ends up gaining when they actually count, and when they estimate Chicago is gaining population, the city ends up losing when they actually count. It not just a mere miss on the numbers, they can't even get the general trend correct.


And once again, the CB estimates that Chicago is losing population, which is probably good news for the city given the CB's track record over the past 30 years.

[edale]

Originally Posted by benp

Deaths in the US increased by 15-20% during the pandemic. That certainly had an effect on population, though many of those people were unseen - elderly, preexisting conditions, etc.

Also, foreign immigration was at its lowest in decades, and the US birth rate continued to decline, taking even a much bigger record drop in 2020.

Changes weren't all just relocations, WFH, etc. - and not just people you see out on the streets.

Very good point.

[Docere]

Wonder why the census separates out Urban Honolulu even though Honolulu is a combined city-county.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Docere

Wonder why the census separates out Urban Honolulu even though Honolulu is a combined city-county.

I believe "urban Honolulu" is a census-designated place.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by Docere

Wonder why the census separates out Urban Honolulu even though Honolulu is a combined city-county.

What we think of as the city of Honolulu is only 60.5 square miles of land--but Hawaii County is 600 square miles, including the entire island of Oahu and also 9 of the 10 Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

[RST500]

Change in European Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Los Angeles: 14,799
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 12,695
Houston: 11,027
San Francisco: 10,005
San Jose: 7,628
Boston: 6,165
Austin: 3,109
Dallas/Fort Worth: 3,012
Washington DC: 1,810

San Diego: -385
Tampa: -1,494
Phoenix: -2,158
Detroit: -3,098
Denver: -3,156
Atlanta: -3,346
Minneapolis/St. Paul: -3,457
Portland, OR: -3,852
Philadelphia: -3,959
Seattle/Tacoma: -4,177
Sacramento: -5,797
New York City: -6,750
Chicago: -32,796

Change in Asian Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Seattle/Tacoma: 49,106
San Jose: 43,958
Dallas/Fort Worth: 41,565
Boston: 37,694
Detroit: 35,611
Houston: 33,894
Chicago: 23,979
Atlanta: 22,298
Phoenix: 21,497
New York City: 19,451
Charlotte: 18,205
Austin: 17,186
Sacramento: 14,109
Philadelphia: 10,951
Portland, OR: 10,544
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 9,820
San Diego: 9,360
San Antonio: 8,785
Tampa: 8,654
Denver: 7,056
San Francisco: 7,170
Orlando: 5,434
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 3,901
Riverside/San Bernardino: 1,093

Las Vegas: -2,199
Washington DC: -2,366
Los Angeles: -9,194

Change in Caribbean Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Houston: 10,446
Boston: 4,393
Las Vegas: 4,356
Atlanta: 3,841
Austin: 3,012
Orlando: 2,755
Dallas/Fort Worth: 2,204
Tampa: 1,825

Philadelphia: -1,448
Washington DC: -3,310
New York City: -17,416
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: -18,177

Change in Mexican Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Detroit: 1,195
Boston: 177

Baltimore: -2,746
Orlando: -4,979
Tampa: -7,243
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: -9,265
Philadelphia: -10,446
Minneapolis/St. Paul: -12,478
Washington DC: -12,631
Charlotte: -13,475
Portland, OR: -15,945
San Antonio: -18,757
Sacramento: -20,601
San Jose: -23,378
Seattle/Tacoma: -25,953
Austin: -26,324
Denver: -27,690
Atlanta: -37,984
San Diego: -40,293
San Francisco: -41,212
Phoenix: -49,479
New York City: -66,157
Riverside/San Bernardino: -82,890
Houston: -89,171
Dallas/Fort Worth: -96,167
Chicago: -110,708
Los Angeles: -222,592

Change in Central American Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Houston: 16,529
Charlotte: 6,678
Dallas/Fort Worth: 1,975
Atlanta: 1,548

Philadelphia: -1,283
San Jose: -2,245
Phoenix: -2,461
Chicago: -3,012
Boston: -3,394
Las Vegas: -3,527
Baltimore: -4,403
Riverside/San Bernardino: -5,032
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: -8,929
San Francisco: -9,049
Washington DC: -26,000
New York City: -31,242
Los Angeles: -51,186

Change in South American Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Orlando: 26,155
Houston: 14,138
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 11,365
Boston: 5,010
San Francisco: 1,921
Dallas/Fort Worth: 1,365
Seattle/Tacoma: 1,300

Chicago: -292
Tampa: -817
Riverside/San Bernardino: -2,527
Los Angeles: -3,177
Philadelphia: -3,314
Atlanta: -3,671
Washington DC: -13,677
New York City: -74,515

Change in Other Countries (Africa, Canada, Oceana) Immigration 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020
Houston: 22,436
Dallas/Fort Worth: 15,198
New York City: 11,082
Los Angeles: 10,070
Phoenix: 7,601
Chicago: 4,793
San Francisco: 4,752
Tampa: 4,730
Seattle/Tacoma: 4,495
San Jose: 4,252
Riverside/San Bernardino: 4,160
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 4,159
Denver: 3,763
Detroit: 2,449
Baltimore: 2,279
Boston: 1,843
Charlotte: 1,288
Atlanta: 1,149

Philadelphia: -2,090
Minneapolis/St. Paul: -2,222
Washington DC: -4,256

[RST500]

foreign born black growth by metro area between 2010-2020.

Washington DC: 69,493
Houston: 58,848
Dallas/Fort Worth: 55,295
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 54,981
Atlanta: 44,583
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 41,981
New York City: 41,423
Boston: 35,383
Philadelphia: 32,361
Orlando: 30,156
Seattle/Tacoma: 27,513
Baltimore: 23,206
Columbus, OH: 20,689
Charlotte: 16,811
Chicago: 13,894
Denver: 13,393
Los Angeles: 13,328
Tampa: 12,809
Indianapolis: 11,103
San Francisco: 10,572
Phoenix: 10,425
Las Vegas: 9,275
Cincinnati: 8,631
Austin: 8,215
Raleigh: 7,101
Portland: 6,075
Providence: 5,223
Nashville: 4,521
Memphis: 4,032
Hartford: 3,965
St. Louis: 3,900
Riverside/San Bernardino: 3,658
Richmond: 3,425
San Jose: 2,992
Cleveland: 2,263
Sacramento: 2,231
Virginia Beach: 2,197
San Diego: 2,119
Detroit: 2,061
San Antonio: 2,050
Salt Lake City: 2,042
New Orleans: 1,522

Birmingham: -233

[RST500]

Foreign born Hispanic growth from 2010-2020.

Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 325,304
Houston: 173,041
New York City: 149,396
Washington DC: 90,191
Orlando: 78,555
Dallas/Fort Worth: 76,297
Boston: 66,278
Tampa: 60,857
Charlotte: 33,272
Philadelphia: 28,856
San Antonio: 28,115
Austin: 24,581
Las Vegas: 24,252
Fort Myers: 22,637
Seattle/Tacoma: 21,060
Atlanta: 18,215
Jacksonville: 16,320
Oxnard: 15,463
Riverside/San Bernardino: 13,699
McAllen: 12,689
New Orleans: 11,127
Providence: 10,422
Nashville: 9,403
Baltimore: 9,238
Oklahoma City: 8,096
Hartford: 6,701
Richmond: 6,693
Virginia Beach: 6,674
Indianapolis: 6,537
Detroit: 6,115
Salt Lake City: 5,721
Cincinnati: 5,381
Grand Rapids: 4,901
Kansas City: 3,749
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 3,569
Denver: 3,432
Cleveland: 3,180
San Diego: 2,628
Columbus: 2,429
Raleigh: 1,433
Sacramento: 377

Portland: -1,587
Fresno: -3,554
Brownsville: -3,984
Tucson: -4,133
Corpus Christi: -4,849
Phoenix: -4,917
El Paso: -7,290
San Francisco: -13,515
San Jose: -16,452
Chicago: -48,737
Los Angeles: -226,082

[RST500]

Here is the breakdown of ethnicity for some of the bigger gainers for the Hispanic Population.

Miami/Fort Lauderdale
Cuba: 157,763
Venezuela: 74,969
Colombia: 33,442
Dominican Republic: 11,685
Honduras: 9,267

Houston
Honduras: 31,375
El Salvador: 27,760
Venezuela: 22,545
Cuba: 20,880
Guatemala: 14,306

New York City
Dominican Republic: 141,629
Colombia: 17,210
Guatemala: 13,926
El Salvador: 12,992
Honduras: 5,933

Washington DC
El Salvador: 37,049
Guatemala: 13,828
Honduras: 12,930
Peru: 7,932
Colombia: 5,487

Orlando
Venezuela: 28,325
Colombia: 11,470
Cuba: 10,804
Dominican Republic: 10,207
Peru: 4,299

Dallas/Fort Worth
El Salvador: 18,913
Mexico: 16,326
Honduras: 8,483
Guatemala: 7,586
Venezuela: 7,446

Boston
Dominican Republic: 26,249
El Salvador: 14,951
Guatemala: 8,711
Colombia: 4,614
Honduras: 2,573

Tampa
Cuba: 32,714
Colombia: 8,448
Venezuela: 7,557
Dominican Republic: 5,302
Honduras: 3,605

Charlotte
Honduras: 9,611
Dominican Republic: 4,005
El Salvador: 3,470
Mexico: 3,176
Venezuela: 1,787

Philadelphia
Dominican Republic: 16,364
Guatemala: 3,899
Honduras: 3,179
El Salvador: 2,614
Colombia: 1,994

San Antonio
Mexico: 17,958
Honduras: 2,798
Cuba: 2,084
El Salvador: 1,696
Guatemala: 505

Austin
El Salvador: 3,985
Honduras: 3,838
Mexico: 3,820
Cuba: 3,766
Venezuela: 1,944

Las Vegas
Cuba: 10,614
El Salvador: 5,124
Guatemala: 2,517
Honduras: 1,737
Venezuela: 807

Seattle/Tacoma
Guatemala: 3,607
El Salvador: 3,275
Mexico: 3,030
Venezuela: 1,277
Peru: 1,047