PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by summersm343

I would put very little stock into these "Census" numbers. The yearly counts are deeply flawed, as it's been proven time and time again. The only time they actually truly "count" the population of the country is for the decennial count, but even those "counts" are flawed.

All this is showing is the people whom temporarily or permanently moved out due to COVID, with no immigration. Now that COVID is winding down, people are moving back to cities (especially more affordable cities like Philly), and immigration is picking up as well. I expect a population rebound for the 2022 "census count." Anybody whom claims Philadelphia is declining is blind and doesn't get out much. If they're building new homes in Strawberry Mansion and Allegheny West.... Philly is doing well.

Housing construction is at an all time high in Philly. houses are still selling briskly, rental units are 97% leased (which is higher than pre-COVID by the way and with more units on the market) across the city, and you're hearing of NO homes being abandoned and left to rot in certain parts of the city.... so how is Philadelphia declining exactly?

All these things can be true, and the population could go down still. Immigration has been the net-positive thing along with births keeping the population going up, but there's some serious headwinds into keeping that going.

As Pew pointed out recently, there is no one path the city could go on, but a number of different ones. My gut says to be pessimistic but hopeful. I think the population may drop or be flat by 2030, but my hope is that poverty/crime/etc. will go down and average incomes go up in the same period of time.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by TempleGuy1000

All these things can be true, and the population could go down still. Immigration has been the net-positive thing along with births keeping the population going up, but there's some serious headwinds into keeping that going.

As Pew pointed out recently, there is no one path the city could go on, but a number of different ones. My gut says to be pessimistic but hopeful. I think the population may drop or be flat by 2030, but my hope is that poverty/crime/etc. will go down and average incomes go up in the same period of time.

How do you expect population to decrease with new construction left and right and no reports of homes being abandoned in parts of the city? You think people are what, just moving out and holding onto their homes and leaving them empty? Only the wealthy can afford to do that. If people are holding onto them but renting them out, then guess what.... renters count as residents.

I would be interested to know your line of thinking here.

Again, this census count covers the throes of the pandemic where it was widespread knowledge that renters were moving out and moving back in with their parents, the wealthy were fleeing for their country or suburban estates and vacation homes, etc. etc.

Why anybody would take stock in this census and say Philadelphia is now on a permanent decline or will be flat in growth over the next decade is pretty mind boggling. Again, we have to wait for the next year or two at least to see if Philadelphia has recovered (which I believe it already has or is close to a full recovery).

[skyhigh07]

Originally Posted by summersm343

I would put very little stock into these "Census" numbers. The yearly counts are deeply flawed, as it's been proven time and time again. The only time they actually truly "count" the population of the country is for the decennial count, but even those "counts" are flawed.

All this is showing is the people whom temporarily or permanently moved out due to COVID, with no immigration. Now that COVID is winding down, people are moving back to cities (especially more affordable cities like Philly), and immigration is picking up as well. I expect a population rebound for the 2022 "census count." Anybody whom claims Philadelphia is declining is blind and doesn't get out much. If they're building new homes in Strawberry Mansion and Allegheny West.... Philly is doing well.

Housing construction is at an all time high in Philly. houses are still selling briskly, rental units are 97% leased (which is higher than pre-COVID by the way and with more units on the market) across the city, and you're hearing of NO homes being abandoned and left to rot in certain parts of the city.... so how is Philadelphia declining exactly?

Agreed. And the only two cities (Phoenix and San Antonio) which experienced some marginal growth are near the border and likely made some gains via immigration.

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by summersm343

How do you expect population to decrease with new construction left and right and no reports of homes being abandoned in parts of the city? You think people are what, just moving out and holding onto their homes and leaving them empty? Only the wealthy can afford to do that. If people are holding onto them but renting them out, then guess what.... renters count as residents.

I would be interested to know your line of thinking here.

Again, this census count covers the throes of the pandemic where it was widespread knowledge that renters were moving out and moving back in with their parents, the wealthy were fleeing for their country or suburban estates and vacation homes, etc. etc.

Why anybody would take stock in this census and say Philadelphia is now on a permanent decline or will be flat in growth over the next decade is pretty mind boggling. Again, we have to wait for the next year or two at least to see if Philadelphia has recovered (which I believe it already has or is close to a full recovery).

The metro's demographics aren't in favor of sustained growth. I'm just being realistic. Births and immigration have bee the reasons for the 'growth'. Domestic migration has not been in the city's favor for a century. Gen Z in the Delaware Valley is markedly smaller than the previous generation. So you aren't going to get as much of a bump from that either. From most accounts, the QOL/crime/economy is getting worse in NE and SW (along with large parts of North and West Philly that seemingly have no bottom) areas of Philadelphia which is a doubly bad thing because that's the landing spot for a lot of immigrants. People having less babies in general. All projections show the population is getting older by the year now.

Like I said, I hope socioeconomic factors for the median resident improve by the end of the decade as more and more units come online in gentrified neighborhoods. I'm sorry, I'm a big city booster and have been for a long time, but the fact that the city had the best decade economically in a generation and completely squandered it already, makes me feel very much that the 'revival' is much more a house of cards than anything else.

[summersm343]

Guess we'll just have to wait to see what the 2022 and 2023 census numbers hold. Even those we should take with a huge grain of salt though as the yearly census counts are literally just educated guesses. Never got why anybody put any stock in them whatsoever.

I mean, the census literally said Philadelphia decline by like 3,000 people in 2019 (despite it growing for an entire decade at least before then), then gained like 17,000 people in 2020. They're ridiculous inaccurate with the yearly counts.

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Guess we'll just have to wait to see what the 2022 and 2023 census numbers hold.

Yes, and I don't think any year will be close to this past year's -25,000. I'm not suggesting Philadelphia of 2022 is Philadelphia of 1975 and bleeding thousands of manufacturing jobs by the month like then. I just think the toll of the last several years along with the general demographics of the area is going to make it difficult to climb up and above 1.6 million in the city.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by TempleGuy1000

Yes, and I don't think any year will be close to this past year's -25,000. I'm not suggesting Philadelphia of 2022 is Philadelphia of 1975 and bleeding thousands of manufacturing jobs by the month like then. I just think the toll of the last several years along with the general demographics of the area is going to make it difficult to climb up and above 1.6 million in the city.

Disagree. Keep in mind, most students weren't in the city from 2020 until about mid-2021 really either.... so most students weren't counted in the census either.

I'm willing to bet Philadelphia shows at least a 15,000-20,000 population increase for 2022, and we'll be right back above 1.6M by 2023/2024.

Plus, you're not thinking about the sheer affordability of this region (compared to other major metro areas) and the job growth in the region. That plays a huge factor.

Is crime, trash, ATVs/Dirt Bikes and some other items a standing problem? Yes.... Do they need to be addressed? Yes... but where else in a major urban city can you buy a new construction townhome/rowhome for $600K-$800K within walking distance to every amenity you need? Where else can you buy a full home with parking close to the city for $250K-$450K? It's not happening anywhere else in NYC, or DC, or Boston, or San Francisco, or Miami, or Seattle, or Los Angeles, etc.

[mcgrath618]

I think that this entire conversation is stupid given that every census estimate from 1990 to present has been vastly incorrect about Philly's population.

[3rd&Brown]

Honestly can we stop having these doom and gloom conversations? It's exhausting. It's also all been discussed ad nauseum.

[mcgrath618]

Philly area sees venture capital investment grow more in Q1 than any other US Metro

https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadel...rowth-q1-2022/

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Philly area sees venture capital investment grow more in Q1 than any other US Metro

https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadel...rowth-q1-2022/

PhIlLy Is DeClInInG

In also seriousness... this is huge. Life Sciences is the industry of the future for Philadelphia. Wish we could get city and state leaders on board.

[iheartphilly]

Originally Posted by summersm343

PhIlLy Is DeClInInG

In also seriousness... this is huge. Life Sciences is the industry of the future for Philadelphia. Wish we could get city and state leaders on board.

I'm not sure what city and state leaders getting on board means. But, businesses consider many factors when establishing roots (e.g. HQ) in a city or expanding its presence in our city leading to investments from banks and venture capital. Not sure city and state leaders are necessary to swing the pendulum. These businesses go where the talent and infrastructure and hub is formed or located. This is evident in the recent business investments in cell/gene therapy and life sciences sector. Bottom line: I don't think businesses are waiting for our state or city leaders to get on board if they see an opportunity to support, grow, or move their business where they can help their businesses grow.

[Mikieman]

Edgewater 2 going up modular

20220525_164730 by
, on Flickr

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by BroadandMarket

12th and Reed New rendering:

Nice. I like the new one. Looking forward to this one happening.

Originally Posted by Mikieman

Edgewater 2 going up modular

It will be interesting to see what this ends up looking like. The other modular low-rises have been geared towards more affordable apartments. This one will probably be marketed a bit differently given it's prime location.

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by summersm343

PhIlLy Is DeClInInG

In also seriousness... this is huge. Life Sciences is the industry of the future for Philadelphia. Wish we could get city and state leaders on board.

Awesome news!

Random question, unless I missed the article, I wonder why the Inquirer hasn't mentioned this? Pretty big economic news IMO.

[PHLtoNYC]

...

Let's hope the Spring Garden revamp is easier...

After all that, Washington Avenue could end up with two separate safety configurations

https://www.inquirer.com/transportat...-20220527.html

"A March compromise plan to put Washington Avenue on a mixed-road diet with fewer lanes in some sections and new traffic-calming features seemed to offer a chance to make the thoroughfare safer and end a nine-year battle. But Councilmember Kenyatta Johnson on Thursday declined to introduce legislation changing parking rules on the part of the avenue in his district, meaning it would be repaved but stay five lanes wide."

"Councilmember Mark Squilla introduced a bill enabling parking and loading-zone changes on Washington Avenue in his district, from Fourth Street to Broad Street."

"Johnson said he wants Washington Avenue to remain five lanes through the Second District, reflecting the needs and concerns of residents and business owners."

[DeltaNerd]

Originally Posted by PHLtoNYC

...

Let's hope the Spring Garden revamp is easier...

After all that, Washington Avenue could end up with two separate safety configurations

https://www.inquirer.com/transportat...-20220527.html

"A March compromise plan to put Washington Avenue on a mixed-road diet with fewer lanes in some sections and new traffic-calming features seemed to offer a chance to make the thoroughfare safer and end a nine-year battle. But Councilmember Kenyatta Johnson on Thursday declined to introduce legislation changing parking rules on the part of the avenue in his district, meaning it would be repaved but stay five lanes wide."

"Councilmember Mark Squilla introduced a bill enabling parking and loading-zone changes on Washington Avenue in his district, from Fourth Street to Broad Street."

"Johnson said he wants Washington Avenue to remain five lanes through the Second District, reflecting the needs and concerns of residents and business owners."

I hope the other city council members can step up and do something about this. 10 years of this Washington Ave process to be stopped by one city council member

[Justin7]

Fucking unbelievable.

[summersm343]

Really truly unbelievable. We need to get Johnson and Clarke out now. Both of these men are a complete plague on this city.

[mcgrath618]

https://www.ocfrealty.com/naked-phil...tnut-structure
TIL that the Chestnut Street East Historic District exists. Explains why 709 hasn't gotten off the ground yet.

Would love if that could be expanded to cover more of Chestnut and maybe even East Market.