CHICAGO | General Discussions

[MayorOfChicago]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

So are these new numbers going to be official?

No, had to dig for that but they won't restate.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

So are these new numbers going to be official?

Nope. Unfortunately.

I know the ACS also had population declining almost every year after 2010. Why are they so far off all the time?

[VKChaz]

For context, article on both the under and over-counts.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/10998...ennessee-texas

A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally's accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).

It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%).

Not a huge suprise. Some numbers seemed off

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by MayorOfChicago

No, had to dig for that but they won't restate.

Even if not "official," much needs to be done using updated numbers.

One is federal funding. Another is ensuring that any business looking to invest in the state know the growth numbers as it can factor into decisions about hiring or customer potential. That kind of thing will be important for leaders to drive home.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by marothisu

The city gained 51K people and the region gained 150K between 2010 and 2020. Now the Census says they had a statistically significant undercount for Illinois and the state probably gained close to 250K people and very possible Chicago could have actually gained close to 100K people.

curious about this, i went back to an older post of mine:

Illinois 2010: 12,830,632

Illinois 2020: 12,812,508

growth: -18,124 (−0.1%)




9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2010: 8,586,609

9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2020: 8,730,688

growth: +144,079 (+1.7%)




the rest of IL 2010: 4,244,023

the rest of IL 2020: 4,081,820

growth: -162,203 (−3.8%)

if we take the 252,406 people the CB now thinks that they missed in the 2020 count and distribute them proportionally to "chicagoland" and "downstate" then:

chicagoland: +171,994

downstate: +80,412



if we add those "missing" people to the growth numbers as calculated by the 2020 count from above, we get:

chicagoland: +316,073

downstate: -81,791



and since the city of chicago was responsible for ~1/3 of the MSAs growth last decade, the city really might've added 100K people, or possibly even more given the CB's long history of undercounting minorities.

[Kngkyle]

I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of the undercount was actually in Chicago proper.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Nope. Unfortunately.

I know the ACS also had population declining almost every year after 2010. Why are they so far off all the time?

It's based on response rates first and foremost. I know it's anecdotal but it seemed like there was more talk this time around about people not filling in the Census. So many people think it's about the government knowing where you live (hello, mail? Paychecks? etc) instead of the allocation of federal funding, congressional seats, etc. Even with the ACS - I got it this year actually but haven't filled it out yet apparently I have 4 days left. But I'm guessing many people don't fill it out at all.

Then with this we had COVID which probably made it harder for in person visits to households that didn't fill it out online or the mail. And we also had a lot of people working a month or 2 at a time in other states or cities. The Census report says duplicates this time were an issue - Hawaii was the most overcounted state. We vacationed there in spring 2021 and met numerous remote workers who were residents of other states. I'm just going to guess that Hawaii was so overcounted due to a lot of these people claiming Hawaii as their own when it wasn't and then filling out another form at their actual home a few months later.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Good on Crain's for acknowledging the correction, but I still have some degree of respect for them, unlike the stupid fucking trib.

Crain's runs positive op-eds all the time from people like Rob Paral and Ed Zotti who point out reasons for optimism in the numbers, and are careful to note the many caveats of using ACS and census data.

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of the undercount was actually in Chicago proper.

I doubt it. Supposedly a lot of the undercounting was driven by fear in Latino communities, especially among the undocumented. Nowadays new immigrants are just as likely to live in West Chicago or Carpentersville as they are in Little Village or Back of the Yards.

Downstaters are likely to be undercounted too, but that's more of the "greet census workers with shotguns" type of undercounting.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Crain's runs positive op-eds all the time from people like Rob Paral and Ed Zotti who point out reasons for optimism in the numbers, and are careful to note the many caveats of using ACS and census data.

right, crain's hasn't degraded itself into rag status like the tribune has, which is why i wasn't really directing my ire at them.

and i'm not necessarily even asking for "positive" op-eds, but how about just some good old fashioned balanced, rational takes instead of the trib's full-bore "doom & gloom misery festival".


anyway, it's been over a day since the news first broke about the census undercount and i still haven't seen a peep about it on the tribune's website. anyone seen anything on that front?

after an entire fucking decade of "The Great Illinois Exodus!" are they really just going to ignore it and rely on the short attention span of their readership?

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

It's based on response rates first and foremost. I know it's anecdotal but it seemed like there was more talk this time around about people not filling in the Census. So many people think it's about the government knowing where you live (hello, mail? Paychecks? etc) instead of the allocation of federal funding, congressional seats, etc. Even with the ACS - I got it this year actually but haven't filled it out yet apparently I have 4 days left. But I'm guessing many people don't fill it out at all.

Then with this we had COVID which probably made it harder for in person visits to households that didn't fill it out online or the mail. And we also had a lot of people working a month or 2 at a time in other states or cities. The Census report says duplicates this time were an issue - Hawaii was the most overcounted state. We vacationed there in spring 2021 and met numerous remote workers who were residents of other states. I'm just going to guess that Hawaii was so overcounted due to a lot of these people claiming Hawaii as their own when it wasn't and then filling out another form at their actual home a few months later.

I get what you are saying, but why does Illinois have this problem so often? Other states don't it seems.

[left of center]

Originally Posted by MayorOfChicago

No, had to dig for that but they won't restate.

So how will the updated numbers be reflected then? The ACS already showed another decrease for 2021, so will 2022 show a quarter of a million bump? Or will they continue off the incorrect 2020 baseline number in all ACS reports this decade until the next census at 2030?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

I get what you are saying, but why does Illinois have this problem so often? Other states don't it seems.

I forget who it is on this forum but they were a Census worker and said that they can't send questionnaires or go to addresses that aren't official USPS ones. The CBS News clip I posted yesterday had a year (?) old interview with the head of the Census who straight up said the Latino population is typically undercounted each Census. I think when you have immigrant communities, illegal dwelling units there without an official address, etc perhaps they don't get counted. I'm going to also guess fears about immigration stuff as well cause some people to not even fill it out. Following that same thread - both Texas and Florida were also undercounted this time around significantly. Texas was almost as bad as Illinois with that and Florida was much worse.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by left of center

So how will the updated numbers be reflected then? The ACS already showed another decrease for 2021, so will 2022 show a quarter of a million bump? Or will they continue off the incorrect 2020 baseline number in all ACS reports this decade until the next census at 2030?

The ACS and Decennial Census are 2 different surveys with 2 different methodologies. They aren't going to update the ACS based on this to my knowledge. The ACS results is going to depend on who fills it out too and their methodology with that.

[sentinel]

Can any state take legal action for undercounting, especially when congressional representation is affected within that state?

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

I get what you are saying, but why does Illinois have this problem so often? Other states don't it seems.

A quote from this article

Although few patterns could be discerned among the states that had statistically significant over- or undercounts, the new findings underscore the importance of state investment in census outreach, said Arturo Vargas, chief executive of the NALEO Educational Fund, a Latino advocacy group.

“In Census 2020, what did Texas and Florida have in common? Virtually no ... state investment in census outreach,” he said, referring to states with large immigrant populations that did not gain as many House seats as they were predicted to. “And then you compare that to states that went all out, like California and New York,” which had overcounts. “I think the investment really made a difference.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md...t-2020-census/

IL may have been somewhere in the middle in terms of successful outreach. A lesson is make a good plan and fund it.

[the urban politician]

The bottom line is that a lot of the undercount probably happened in Chicago

Which means Chicago’s population increased by a pretty decent amount.

Is it back over 2.8 million residents again?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

The bottom line is that a lot of the undercount probably happened in Chicago

Which means Chicago’s population increased by a pretty decent amount.

Is it back over 2.8 million residents again?

If their estimate of undercounting is pretty accurate, then I'd bet money that it's over 2.8 million people currently. Obviously what I'm about to say is anecdotal but Chicago feels more crowded than when I moved away a handful of years ago. Some of the areas outside of downtown have more people on the streets and traffic is a much worse (way more cars on the road).

I have been "fighting" with people about this for years - all the data I had seen was showing a growing city overall. No, not everywhere is growing and everyone knows that - but there's some major growth in a large part of the city. I brought up many times how the number of persons in the labor force and were employed were pretty much the same or over the year 2000. If we remember, the official population of Chicago was nearly 2.9 million people. Even a net drop in 75K kids/teens in the city in that time period would give you 2.8M+ people.


I just found this from CMAP in 2020 saying how Illinois is at risk for an undercount. How right they were.
https://www.cmap.illinois.gov/update...ities-of-color

Fewer people in northeastern Illinois are filling out the census, putting the region at risk of a costly undercount. A new analysis of 2020 census data by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning found that the region’s reduction in self-responses, compared to 2010, is concentrated in communities with large Hispanic and Black populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has made achieving a complete count more difficult at a time when maintaining government support is more important than ever.

Each of metropolitan Chicago’s seven counties has communities — urban, suburban, and rural — with below average response rates, including some areas with rates lower than 40 percent.

Honestly, after seeing the data, maps, and graphs on here - you have to wonder what the real population of cities including Chicago is. I mean, entirely possible the real population is over 3 million people here, close to 9 million in NYC, etc.

Originally Posted by sentinel

Can any state take legal action for undercounting, especially when congressional representation is affected within that state?

I'm not sure if it has to do with congressional representation, but Rahm tried to sue the Census Dept upon seeing the 2010 results. Rumor has it that the city was undercounted by a bit. He lost and no recount happened. I think the mayor of Aurora tried the same thing this time around.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I mean, entirely possible the real population is over 3 million people here.

2,746,388 + 252,406 = 2,998,794

Close, but no cigar


But seriously, if this undercount has any legs, it's a very safe bet that the city is back over 2.8M, surpassing 1990.

1980, we're coming for ya!

Is it possible that I might actually one day live in a Chicago that is more populous than it was when I was born (1976)?

Who woulda thunk it?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

2,746,388 + 252,406 = 2,998,794

Close, but no cigar


But seriously, if this undercount has any legs, it's a very safe bet that the city is back over 2.8M, surpassing 1990.

Pretty sure it's over 2.8M. My comment about 3M is based on the CMap study. TONS of tracts just a few weeks before the deadline had less than 50% response rates. You just have to wonder how many people truly didn't fill it out. As they noted in the study, some tracts had 20 percentage points less response rate than 2010. That could be hundreds of people not counted per tract where that was true versus what was counted in 2010.

[bnk]

Not sure if this is true but this article stated we passed up PA and is the 5th largest state in population again. Anyone able to confirm this?

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columni...mn-rich-miller


If true someone is going to have to edit wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population