Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Let's not forget that the provincial NDP gave Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart the opportunity to blunt land costs by allowing cities to create Rental Only zoning. This could easily be done on the West End with the justification that he area is historically and predominantly rental.

This tool is being used. I'm apply for a few projects under it.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by casper

As others have said it is still a positive. People will eventually move into these condos. That will free up units elsewhere. Perhaps some of those are in China.
That is fine. However that is far from the majority.

You need a multi-dimensional plan. Westbank can build these. Provide incentives for rentals. Fund more co-op housing and more social housing. We just need to flood the market with housing.

Building less housing is the wrong plan.

To provide additional context to this development. There is 2,330 condo units, 573 market rate rental units, 130 below-market income-tied units for household incomes below $80k (studios rent for about $1,000 brand new), 290 social housing units.

$10,630,155 in Development Cost Levies, $852,000 in public art, 9 acre public park on the roof of the mall, new community centre, library, seniors centre, music/arts performance spaces, childcare facility... I think this totals almost $500 million.

[casper]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

I like how supply and demand just seem to go out the window with housing like it's just some special category...

There's enough examples of cities to show that it is very much supply and demand. Dallas and Houston are over double Vancouver's population and you can get basically a mansion for 500K. Why is that? You think Texas of all places has defeated the capitalist developers?

It is supply and demand.

Houston, Dallas, Calgary and Saskatoon have lots of space to grow. So building SFH is low cost and provides great value for the owner. Perhaps not the city to service those homes but that is a different story.

Here in Vancouver and Victoria affordable homes are going to come in the form of condos.

[casper]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

To provide additional context to this development. There is 2,330 condo units, 573 market rate rental units, 130 below-market income-tied units for household incomes below $80k (studios rent for about $1,000 brand new), 290 social housing units.

$10,630,155 in Development Cost Levies, $852,000 in public art, 9 acre public park on the roof of the mall, new community centre, library, seniors centre, music/arts performance spaces, childcare facility... I think this totals almost $500 million.

Fantastic development. Lets get it built.

[SignalHillHiker]

The Feds announced funding for new affordable housing units here today. And my real estate agent sold her fourth house on my street in less than a year. This one was a boarded up, burned out shell for $70K. It’ll be torn down and rebuild. It’s been on the market six years. That’s the last boarded up house on my street. There’s one other (council housing) still half boarded up from the last tenants, but it’s slowly being repaired. I’ll soon have a street where every house is inhabitable. It’s my first time having that here since I moved out from my parents’ at 17 haha.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by svlt

The sale price will be but in 30 years the maintenance cost will be eye-wateringly high as is typical of older condos here.

I mean more traditionally the cheaper detached homes have lots of maintenance too. New homes have little maintenance required but that’s not the case for older detached. I live in a house built in 1974, it’s in good shape considering but there’s a long list of minor deficiencies and some sort of largish maintenance bill almost every year. It’s part of it. I could go buy a new build, but to get a new build one similar size on a similar size lot I’m looking at a 30-40% price premium. It’s the same with condos.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

I like how supply and demand just seem to go out the window with housing like it's just some special category...

There's enough examples of cities to show that it is very much supply and demand. Dallas and Houston are over double Vancouver's population and you can get basically a mansion for 500K. Why is that? You think Texas of all places has defeated the capitalist developers?

LOL well said. It's amazing to watch people twist themselves into a pretzel arguing against supply and demand as a market force.

[casper]

Good example of housing design that address the affordability problem.

The Vancouver Special allowed a single family home buyer to get into a home, and rent out one floor to help pay the mortgage. These are not built any more but the most of area where there were built in Vancouver are now being built out with building that support three units.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/stories-about-here-vancouver-special-1.6434818

[thebasketballgeek]

I love how common forms of housing in developing countries are considered innovative practices in Canada. They’ve been utilizing this type of housing in India for 2,000 years lol.

Euclidean zoning really ruined the concept of housing in this country.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by casper

Good example of housing design that address the affordability problem.

The Vancouver Special allowed a single family home buyer to get into a home, and rent out one floor to help pay the mortgage. These are not built any more but the most of area where there were built in Vancouver are now being built out with building that support three units.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/stories-about-here-vancouver-special-1.6434818

Because they are so ubiquitous and unimpressive, I think the city can afford to lose quite a few of them, they can be replaced with higher density where it makes sense. Maybe this is a better idea than razing older more historic homes. However I've seen some nice renovations of specials as well.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Architype

Because they are so ubiquitous and unimpressive, I think the city can afford to lose quite a few of them, they can be replaced with higher density where it makes sense. Maybe this is a better idea than razing older more historic homes. However I've seen some nice renovations of specials as well.

They optimize square footage and land use. Critical going forward.

If want boxy and optimized then you need to look to a country like Japan. Tokyo has very affordable single family homes close to the city center. However that is achieved by reduces the amount of land used for roads, yards etc. and having every home being a square three story building. Plus no place to park a SUV.


• Video Link

i don't think we are ready to go there.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

I like how supply and demand just seem to go out the window with housing like it's just some special category...

There's enough examples of cities to show that it is very much supply and demand. Dallas and Houston are over double Vancouver's population and you can get basically a mansion for 500K. Why is that? You think Texas of all places has defeated the capitalist developers?

Are Houston & Dallas really building significantly more than Toronto & Vancouver though? The typology of new construction is obviously different there, with more SFH and wood-framed low-rise apartments and fewer high-rise condos (which are also more expensive to build per sqft); but I'd be curious to see an actual comparison by unit count. Couldn't find any good comparative data, but keep in mind that Houston & Dallas are also some of the highest-growth cities in the Western world right now; while Toronto & Vancouver are still in the midst of a building boom, after all. I suspect that the raw people-to-housing ratio isn't too far off in any city.

There are issues of land-use regulation, development fees, and construction standards that all play a role as well; but perhaps most importantly is that they're just not in the midst of a speculative bubble. I mean, Toronto housing prices have jumped by 40% or so since 2019 while population growth has basically been zero (new construction hasn't slowed in that time either). Having enough construction relative to population growth is important, but when real estate is traded as a commodity it tends to cause some distortions in the market.

[MonkeyRonin]

A first sign that housing costs in the GTA might be coming back down to reality?



https://storeys.com/gta-housing-prices-rapid-decline-april/

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

A first sign that housing costs in the GTA might be coming back down to reality?



https://storeys.com/gta-housing-prices-rapid-decline-april/

Oh interesting. I wonder if that is just a blip or the beginning of something.
And is that due to people moving out of the GTA? And can Vancouver hope to see this happen as well.

[canucklehead2]

What's needed is for CMHC to operate like it did in the past, which is to actively design and plan affordable housing for the masses. If you look around most Canadian towns and cities, a good chunk of the existing stock comes from the era when government directly for involved in financing, planning and construction of large tract projects including most of the area of Edmonton I call home. Victory Housing indeed!

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by canucklehead2

What's needed is for CMHC to operate like it did in the past, which is to actively design and plan affordable housing for the masses. If you look around most Canadian towns and cities, a good chunk of the existing stock comes from the era when government directly for involved in financing, planning and construction of large tract projects including most of the area of Edmonton I call home. Victory Housing indeed!

I agree with that. The house I live in is definitely a CMHC designed one.

[SignalHillHiker]

Just shove the windows wherever ya wants b’y.

[Airboy]

House up about 5 doors for me went on the Market Thursday. Asking $543,000 sold sign on the house Saturday night. My street is pretty desirable but it usually takes a week to sell. this was the fastest yet. If they got the price the rest of the home are going way up in value. Mine should be around 600G.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Even MetroVancouver could solve their land shortage easily by abolishing the Agricultural Land Reserve.

It would only provide a short term solution. Long term same problem would still exist.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Vancouver city could even more easily solve much of it's land shortage by not having a whopping 83% of the city zoned as SFH...........the highest rate of any major city in the country.

Building higher density doesn't solve the land shortage.

It just means more people are fighting over smaller portions of the pie.

The size of the pie will never increase.