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  #741  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2022, 5:25 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
California needs a break from this madness

The year-over-year data in the link is very interesting as well. SoCal's numbers are soaring, along with much of the country for that matter...

Redfin: US Metros By No. of Homes That Have Sold $100,000+ Above Asking Price This Year

Metros by Number of Homes
Sold $100,000+ Above Asking This Year:

Los Angeles 718
Oakland 580
San Jose 490
Seattle 488
Anaheim 365
San Francisco 335
San Diego 323
Boston 158
Denver 125
New York 109
Dallas 95
Washington DC 93
Riverside 90
Phoenix 89
Austin 74
Newark 65
Nashville 58
Portland 57
New Brunswick, NJ 48
Sacramento 42
Nassau-Suffolk 39
Atlanta 36
West Palm Beach 34
Miami 28
Montgomery County, PA 23
Charlotte 23
Baltimore 22
Tampa 22
Fort Lauderdale 16
Kansas City 15
Fort Worth 12
Chicago 12
Columbus 11
Philadelphia 10

The rest can be found here:
https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sold-above-asking-price-2022/
Isn't Oakland a part of SF's metro? Not sure why it's listed separately.
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  #742  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2022, 6:31 PM
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Isn't Oakland a part of SF's metro? Not sure why it's listed separately.
There are several cities within the same metro listed separately; e.g., Dallas/ Ft. Worth and NYC/ Newark.
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  #743  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2022, 7:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
I don't know about that. I suspect that millennials will still have higher standard of living. Contrary to popular belief boomers were not well off when they were young.
The post-war tract houses built across America to house returning soldiers’ families, in which most boomers grew up, were tiny compared to typical suburban homes today. Most had a single bathroom, 3 small bedrooms, a living room and no auxilliary rooms like “family rooms” or home offices. Most had no garage and most families had only one car. Before the mid 1950s, TVs were luxury items and so were home freezers (kitchen refrigerators had a small—maybe 2 cubic feet—freezer compartment). Homes had a single landline phone, often on a “party line” shared with neighbors (yes, they could listen to your calls). Soon after the war washing machines became common but not clothes dryers or dishwashers—people hung laundry outside to dry and did dishes by hand. Boomer kids walked or biked to school unless they lived a number of miles away in which case they took a school bus. Homes did not have air conditioning and niether did school classrooms—mostly only movie theaters and department stores did (by 1960 or so, the upper middle class was beginning to get window air conditioners).

The parents of many older boomers were still going to college on the GI Bill when they were born and had very little money, having seen their own parents wiped out in the Great Depression. Those whose parents ultimately became professionals—doctors, lawyers etc—were preteens by the time affluence arrived. And it never arrived for the many whose parents did not go to college at all.
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  #744  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2022, 8:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
The post-war tract houses built across America to house returning soldiers’ families, in which most boomers grew up, were tiny compared to typical suburban homes today. Most had a single bathroom, 3 small bedrooms, a living room and no auxilliary rooms like “family rooms” or home offices. Most had no garage and most families had only one car. Before the mid 1950s, TVs were luxury items and so were home freezers (kitchen refrigerators had a small—maybe 2 cubic feet—freezer compartment). Homes had a single landline phone, often on a “party line” shared with neighbors (yes, they could listen to your calls). Soon after the war washing machines became common but not clothes dryers or dishwashers—people hung laundry outside to dry and did dishes by hand. Boomer kids walked or biked to school unless they lived a number of miles away in which case they took a school bus. Homes did not have air conditioning and niether did school classrooms—mostly only movie theaters and department stores did (by 1960 or so, the upper middle class was beginning to get window air conditioners).

The parents of many older boomers were still going to college on the GI Bill when they were born and had very little money, having seen their own parents wiped out in the Great Depression. Those whose parents ultimately became professionals—doctors, lawyers etc—were preteens by the time affluence arrived. And it never arrived for the many whose parents did not go to college at all.
Not only that, but for example, you needed to save about a week's worth of salary to buy a bicycle, while today you can buy one for around 3-4 hours of minimum wage pay. The people who think standard of living or incomes back then were higher have no idea. People wouldn't just throw stuff away, but use them and repair items for decades before upgrading, simply because they couldn't afford to. People would even repair things like paperback books, not as collection items, but simply to keep for reading later.
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  #745  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2022, 11:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
Not only that, but for example, you needed to save about a week's worth of salary to buy a bicycle, while today you can buy one for around 3-4 hours of minimum wage pay. The people who think standard of living or incomes back then were higher have no idea. People wouldn't just throw stuff away, but use them and repair items for decades before upgrading, simply because they couldn't afford to. People would even repair things like paperback books, not as collection items, but simply to keep for reading later.
Is there such a thing as a "TV repairman" today?

Incidentally, just the other day I was reading that the current fad among audiophiles for analogue amps and receivers means that actual vacuum tubes are becoming hard to get and valuable. even though the article mentioned a company still making them.
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  #746  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2022, 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
Not only that, but for example, you needed to save about a week's worth of salary to buy a bicycle, while today you can buy one for around 3-4 hours of minimum wage pay. The people who think standard of living or incomes back then were higher have no idea. People wouldn't just throw stuff away, but use them and repair items for decades before upgrading, simply because they couldn't afford to. People would even repair things like paperback books, not as collection items, but simply to keep for reading later.
It was also possible to pay for college (or a substantial part of it) with a part-time job, afford a home and support a family in many places with a single middle-class income, etc.

I think it's fair to say that "stuff" has become substantially more attainable, while many of the fundamental building blocks of the Western lifestyle like education, home ownership, reasonable retirement, etc. are increasingly out of reach for many. Whether this translates into an objectively higher standard of living is a different question, but it's always felt a bit Brave New World to me to use the availability of cheap consumer products as a barometer on quality of life.
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  #747  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2022, 12:46 AM
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Originally Posted by suburbanite View Post
It was also possible to pay for college (or a substantial part of it) with a part-time job
One of the big arguments for single-payer healthcare in the United States is that it would relieve K-12 public schools of paying directly for health insurance, along with colleges.

Today, much of a typical college graduate's student loan payment is paying down the past health insurance of the institution's excessive admissions staff.

That said, a typical state university is wildly extravagant today, in the 2020s, even as compared to the 1990s. I paid about $3,000/yr to attend a state school in the mid-late 90s and we didn't have air conditioning in the dorms. There was a single pay phone for each floor and the cafeteria food was very plain (although we could by cigarettes with our meal plan card). There was no wiring for the internet because the internet didn't really exist yet. We went to the library pretty much every day because that's where the materials were. I remember there being only two computers on the entire campus with internet access back in 1996-97. Only one computer on the entire campus had a CD burner.
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  #748  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2022, 2:51 AM
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^^ No air-conditioning still very much exists for some college dorms
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  #749  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2022, 2:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Bonsai Tree View Post
^^ No air-conditioning still very much exists for some college dorms
It probably has more to do with when the dorms were built than anything else. The dorms weren't air conditioned at Stanford. This was typically fine due to the mild climate--unless you were living on campus in summer doing summer research. Made you stay in the air-conditioned lab late...
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  #750  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2022, 4:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
California needs a break from this madness

The year-over-year data in the link is very interesting as well. SoCal's numbers are soaring, along with much of the country for that matter...

Redfin: US Metros By No. of Homes That Have Sold $100,000+ Above Asking Price This Year

Metros by Number of Homes
Sold $100,000+ Above Asking This Year:

Los Angeles 718
Oakland 580
San Jose 490
Seattle 488
Anaheim 365
San Francisco 335
San Diego 323
Boston 158
Denver 125
New York 109
Dallas 95
Washington DC 93
Riverside 90
Phoenix 89
Austin 74
Newark 65
Nashville 58
Portland 57
New Brunswick, NJ 48
Sacramento 42
Nassau-Suffolk 39
Atlanta 36
West Palm Beach 34
Miami 28
Montgomery County, PA 23
Charlotte 23
Baltimore 22
Tampa 22
Fort Lauderdale 16
Kansas City 15
Fort Worth 12
Chicago 12
Columbus 11
Philadelphia 10

The rest can be found here:
https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sold-above-asking-price-2022/
Yep - Chicago is still an affordable Alpha US city... Good to see my suspicions play out in numbers. Denver is up there in the madness as well. Great to see my condo appreciate from a distance with a tenant, but not good for people moving there for work, or hoping to upgrade to something larger.
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  #751  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2022, 4:49 AM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
It probably has more to do with when the dorms were built than anything else. The dorms weren't air conditioned at Stanford. This was typically fine due to the mild climate--unless you were living on campus in summer doing summer research. Made you stay in the air-conditioned lab late...
Ironically, the top schools get away with housing people in old dorms. Either Oxford or Cambridge (I can't remember which - or maybe it's both) has dorms with no interior bathrooms - students have to walk outside to a neighboring building that has bathrooms. Such a situation would never be tolerated in even a minor branch campus in the United States.

Where I grew up the private and Catholic schools were almost always in their original buildings from the 1800s or 1900s - that meant boiler heat, single-pane glass, and no air conditioning. Meanwhile the public schools went on a building binge that saw most of the prewar schools demolished or butchered with all sorts of modern updates.

Last edited by jmecklenborg; Apr 19, 2022 at 1:36 PM.
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  #752  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2022, 1:29 PM
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Isn't Oakland a part of SF's metro? Not sure why it's listed separately.
That's Metro Divisions.
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  #753  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2022, 2:26 AM
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If y'all are comfortable living in a trailer...50k.
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  #754  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 5:17 AM
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Following up on my earlier post re: how much more money there is in the United States today than just 25 years ago, take a look at this Instagram site:
https://www.instagram.com/90sartschool/

These are what middle/upper-middle class college students looked like in the 90s and how they lived (most of these photos are from RISD in Providence - a very expensive school then as now). There is no hint of a luxury product anywhere - none of the fancy clothes or apartments that became ubiquitous in the 2010s from coast to coast.

Apartments were cheap. Art studios and band practice spaces were cheap. Few skyscrapers were under construction anywhere in the U.S. after the 1991 recession. Muggings, car break-ins, and other property and violent crime was a constant issue. Music and parties were way, way better.
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  #755  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 12:21 PM
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Comparing 1950 today is silly.

People back then didn't demand a garage, and if they got one, it was probably a one-car garage. They also lived in homes that were around 1,000 sq ft less and demanded fewer amenities we demand today. They usually had only one care and their commutes were a lot shorter, didn't have 5 cell phones for each member of the family, etc..
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  #756  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 1:05 PM
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Also, 1950 isn't the Boomer generation, it's still the Silent and Greatest generations. No one disputes that Silent/Greatest standard of living were significantly lower than today. Boomers weren't born, or were too young to conceptualize relative affluence.

Boomers came of age in the late 1960's, at the earliest, at which point the U.S. was at peak postwar affluence, society was mostly suburbanized and auto-oriented and the culture of bigger and more was well underway.
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  #757  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 1:54 PM
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It was also possible to pay for college (or a substantial part of it) with a part-time job, afford a home and support a family in many places with a single middle-class income, etc.

I think it's fair to say that "stuff" has become substantially more attainable, while many of the fundamental building blocks of the Western lifestyle like education, home ownership, reasonable retirement, etc. are increasingly out of reach for many. Whether this translates into an objectively higher standard of living is a different question, but it's always felt a bit Brave New World to me to use the availability of cheap consumer products as a barometer on quality of life.
things like housing aren't that much more expensive though, in most US metros. The coastal cities are expensive but that's because they are large cities and have restricted supplies.

Someone living in middle America (or Canada) can buy a house easily still. I mean go look at suburban areas of Austin, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Ottawa, Calgary, etc.

The standard educated suburban middle class lifestyle these days is a 2-3,000sf home, 2-car garage, yard, 2-3 cars which are newer and better outfitted than ever before, higher quality building finishes than ever before, lots of toys, tech, regular, expensive vacations, etc.

The way these things have been financed has changed a lot, with the rise of cheap debt and higher overall debt loads, but from a physical abundance standpoint society is very much wealthier than ever.

The differences are mostly in demand perspectives which have changed since a generation ago. Cities are far more popular places than they were in the 1960's, so yea, you can't afford a rowhouse in a hip Brooklyn neighborhood like you could in 1980.. but that neighborhood is also now full of cool coffee shops and bars, etc., not full of crime and dilapidated buildings like it was in the 1980's. A suburban house within commuting distance of Manhattan on the LIRR is just as affordable as always though.

Education has indeed gone up in cost substantially, but so have university-level incomes, and servicing that debt is also a lot cheaper than it once was. People couldn't afford to go into 100k of debt in 1980 to go to university as they would have been paying 10-15% interest on those loans. Someone going to college today can go to school, graduate, and make modest payments off of an excellent income from their job on their debt. It's the same thing for housing, which has gone up in price but also has cheaper debt servicing offsetting most of that.

The places that have had real "quality of life declines" are places that have grown to be different places than they once were, and have had restricted housing supply for whatever reason be it NIMBYism or planning policies. The places, like most of middle america, that have not had that restricted supply vs. demand, are wealthier than ever.

A lot of Millennials simply don't make the choice to be in middle America, trying to fight it out in LA or NYC or SF or Seattle or something and complaining that they can't buy that 3,000sf detached 15 minutes from downtown that they grew up in Dayton, OH or something. The difference isn't that they are poorer than their parents, it's that they are living in a high cost metro which has restricted supply factors limiting housing options to higher cost, denser forms. And sure, those cities weren't as expensive like that in 1980 either, but again, the cities have changed too. In 1980 LA was still sprawling across the valley with nearly unlimited new detached housing supply. It ran out of land. There is still lots of affordable housing stock in Riverside.
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  #758  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 2:10 PM
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While I generally agree with the above, the non-coastal metros have also had significant RE increases in recent years and aren't all that cheap anymore.

My brother lives in Metro Detroit, in upper middle class (but not fancy) sprawl. Homes go in 2-3 days, often above asking, and home prices have basically doubled in a decade, so far faster than inflation. Yes, nothing like the Boises and Bozemans of the world, but relative affordability has dropped. He recently sold his home in a weekend, above asking, at a price that would likely require two high earners, or one very high earner.

And, yeah, there are still places with dirt-cheap homes, but they tend to be extremely undesirable with terrible schools, crime and (and rural areas) few jobs. Rural backwaters, inner-city slums and the like.

Also, I question whether more stuff = higher quality of life. Yes, people used to have 0 cars, then 1, then 2, now often 3, and homes have grown correspondingly (and are more filled with more 🞵🞵🞵🞵), but I'm not getting how this means people live better.
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  #759  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 2:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
things like housing aren't that much more expensive though, in most US metros. The coastal cities are expensive but that's because they are large cities and have restricted supplies.

Someone living in middle America (or Canada) can buy a house easily still. I mean go look at suburban areas of Austin, Indianapolis, Charlotte, Ottawa, Calgary, etc.

The standard educated suburban middle class lifestyle these days is a 2-3,000sf home, 2-car garage, yard, 2-3 cars which are newer and better outfitted than ever before, higher quality building finishes than ever before, lots of toys, tech, regular, expensive vacations, etc.

The way these things have been financed has changed a lot, with the rise of cheap debt and higher overall debt loads, but from a physical abundance standpoint society is very much wealthier than ever.

The differences are mostly in demand perspectives which have changed since a generation ago. Cities are far more popular places than they were in the 1960's, so yea, you can't afford a rowhouse in a hip Brooklyn neighborhood like you could in 1980.. but that neighborhood is also now full of cool coffee shops and bars, etc., not full of crime and dilapidated buildings like it was in the 1980's. A suburban house within commuting distance of Manhattan on the LIRR is just as affordable as always though.

Education has indeed gone up in cost substantially, but so have university-level incomes, and servicing that debt is also a lot cheaper than it once was. People couldn't afford to go into 100k of debt in 1980 to go to university as they would have been paying 10-15% interest on those loans. Someone going to college today can go to school, graduate, and make modest payments off of an excellent income from their job on their debt. It's the same thing for housing, which has gone up in price but also has cheaper debt servicing offsetting most of that.

The places that have had real "quality of life declines" are places that have grown to be different places than they once were, and have had restricted housing supply for whatever reason be it NIMBYism or planning policies. The places, like most of middle america, that have not had that restricted supply vs. demand, are wealthier than ever.

A lot of Millennials simply don't make the choice to be in middle America, trying to fight it out in LA or NYC or SF or Seattle or something and complaining that they can't buy that 3,000sf detached 15 minutes from downtown that they grew up in Dayton, OH or something. The difference isn't that they are poorer than their parents, it's that they are living in a high cost metro which has restricted supply factors limiting housing options to higher cost, denser forms. And sure, those cities weren't as expensive like that in 1980 either, but again, the cities have changed too. In 1980 LA was still sprawling across the valley with nearly unlimited new detached housing supply. It ran out of land. There is still lots of affordable housing stock in Riverside.
I'm reading a business related book that was written in the 1960s. Yesterday I finished a chapter that focuses on management of GE and gives some salary ranges of middle and upper management roles at the company. Upper management probably made less then than what they would in today's dollars (ranges were roughly 1.5M - 3M in 2022 dollars), but middle management was paid about the same for a company like GE based in NYC (roughly $0.5M - $1M in today's dollars).

Anyway, my theory is that places like NYC are pretty much the same as they were mid-century. There was probably a 1-2 decade dip in the city during the heart of white flight, but they have kept pace with inflation. It's the "cheaper" cities that have fallen behind inflation.
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  #760  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2022, 2:19 PM
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Salaries have impacted some housing markets. Manhattan (and affluent Wall Street-oriented suburbs) had a price boom when Wall Street took off in the early 1980s. London saw the same a few years later. Obviously Silicon Valley is an even more extreme example.

The current RE frenzy in Manhattan is to some extent a function of this year's record-setting bonuses. And when Silicon Valley has a downturn, as in the early 2000's, RE will get (temporarily) crushed.
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