DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Life is what's happening while you're conflating issues

Originally Posted by laniroj

That's why money isn't the problem...zoning is. No amount of money in the world can force municipalities to rezone the land to let building proceed. This is why I propose the federal government establish a housing entity

One thing I found interesting as I was searching for new metro construction projects was the number of affordable units being built including in Arvada, in Lakewood, even in Parker Co. I would also be in favor of building more affordable housing that prioritized seniors.

America’s homeless ranks graying as more retire on streets
April 10, 2022 - An AP article written by Anita Snow

Finocchio is one face of America’s graying homeless population, a rapidly expanding group of destitute and desperate people 50 and older suddenly without a permanent home after a job loss, divorce, family death or health crisis during a pandemic.

Maybe a retrospective is in order. Too many fail to appreciate how 'good' things are.

There have been times in addition to the Great Depression where jobs were scarce. Today the problem is a shortage of people willing to work as there's plenty of jobs available
- but that could change.

It appears that Fed "Jaw-Boning" is taking hold.

Consumer fears over inflation hit a record high in March, New York Fed survey shows
APR 11 2022 By Jeff Cox - CNBC

Nasdaq slumps 1.7% to lead stock-market selloff as Treasury yields continue to surge
April 11, 2022 By William Watts and Steve Goldstein - MarketWatch

Try telling the hard-working rural and blue-collar workers including Hispanics that they should (help) pay for free housing for those who don't want to work and watch the Trump-Republicans jump all over that. Yes, I realize this may not be fair but that's what 'politics' does.

Inflation is hammering the voters who will soon decide some key midterm races
APR 11 2022 By Thomas Franck - CNBC

Even if your 'scheme' was feasible this country will be recovering from the next recession (which is looking more probable every day) before that could have any impact. Chances are people will have bigger things to worry about.


Note: I found a good "explainer" for fighting inflation. Yes, it's generally about the demand-supply curve but it's never as simplistic as many would wish. GOOD READ:

Here’s how the Fed raising interest rates can help get inflation lower, and why it could fail
APR 9 2022 By Jeff Cox - CNBC

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Same problem as with local leaders, state leaders will never do it because of local politics. WTF does the head of HUD or HHS care about local politics? Yes there is some correlation in a national election every 4 years with this kind of proposed power taking, but nothing like local political blowback should a governor or state sens/reps get involved and initiate something like this. Just look to CA...the state is trying (and largely failing) despite having a pretty strong mandate from their governor and state congress. Need to simplify the process and have the Feds guarantee partnership for any/all housing anywhere for property developers willing to partner with them - and keep it simple so ordinary folks can maybe build an ADU or duplex, triplex, etc.

HUD is not a mission-oriented organization. It's a large, soulless, bureaucracy that mostly exists for itself as a self-fulfilling feedback loop at this point. Right now across America, you cannot develop new affordable housing EVEN with grants and tax credit awards, because HUD will not release new 2022 affordable rents.

This is the first time in decades (ever? Idk, I've only been involved in affordable housing since 2007) that they have not released new rents by April 1st. The expectation is for affordable housing development to somehow absorb skyrocketing construction costs with stagnant or declining income.

Those of you who really want affordable housing to be scaled up, need to start putting pressure on your public leadership that claims to be involved with that. Are they really helping or hurting? All the evidence you need is whether enough affordable housing is getting built, or not. If you want affordable housing, yes we need resources to buy down the cost, but at the same we need LESS not MORE federal government involvement. Block grant this stuff, don't manage it from HUD HQ. We need fewer construction labor requirements (ahem Section 3), fewer off-site requirements, fewer two-year or longer HUD Section 106/ER reviews, etc.

This whole industry is a house of cards on a foundation of regulations that don't work.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

HUD is not a mission-oriented organization. It's a large, soulless, bureaucracy that mostly exists for itself as a self-fulfilling feedback loop at this point. Right now across America, you cannot develop new affordable housing EVEN with grants and tax credit awards, because HUD will not release new 2022 affordable rents.

This is the first time in decades (ever? Idk, I've only been involved in affordable housing since 2007) that they have not released new rents by April 1st. The expectation is for affordable housing development to somehow absorb skyrocketing construction costs with stagnant or declining income.

Those of you who really want affordable housing to be scaled up, need to start putting pressure on your public leadership that claims to be involved with that. Are they really helping or hurting? All the evidence you need is whether enough affordable housing is getting built, or not. If you want affordable housing, yes we need resources to buy down the cost, but at the same we need LESS not MORE federal government involvement. Block grant this stuff, don't manage it from HUD HQ. We need fewer construction labor requirements (ahem Section 3), fewer off-site requirements, fewer two-year or longer HUD Section 106/ER reviews, etc.

This whole industry is a house of cards on a foundation of regulations that don't work.

All fair points but it's a theoretical, sensible, logical world you speak to...not the immovable, emotional one in which we currently live. The change you speak has not materialized anywhere in this country, to my knowledge. Even in property rights states like Texas, Florida, deep south and midwest red states, zoning is stiflingly restrictive.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...I found a good "explainer" for fighting inflation. Yes, it's generally about the demand-supply curve but it's never as simplistic as many would wish. GOOD READ:

Here’s how the Fed raising interest rates can help get inflation lower, and why it could fail
APR 9 2022 By Jeff Cox - CNBC

Since you seem to have the time, and because I think you'd be interested, pull the quarterly GDP growth rate (inflation) and then pull the federal funds rate (or its equivalent) for each quarter going back to the Great Depression. You can even pull much less reliable data going back to the 1800's, but that's more for shits than giggles. Measuring inflation is extremely difficult and we didn't used to be very good at it - we still aren't. What you will notice is that once our federal reserve thinks to raise rates, it's typically 3 quarters behind really strong growth and then those rate increases are followed by a recession within 2 quarters. I did this two decades ago for a graduate research paper I wrote - eye opening so much so that I've built on that paper over 20 years and one of these days when I have time, I'm going to start a geek blog to nerd out with numbers.

All this to say, we've never been and still aren't good at anticipating things and once we do act, we over-react. If hedge funds ran an altruistic algorithm to time interest rate increases/decreases to control inflation/stimulate growth, they could very likely manage that model to avoid ever having another recession again. Unfortunately, they are not altruistic because chaos is opportunity for them and sadly, our government will never be capable of an awesomely complicated predictive model that would effectively manage rates and even if it were capable, the government wouldn't make decisions based on it because....politics.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Same problem as with local leaders, state leaders will never do it because of local politics. WTF does the head of HUD or HHS care about local politics? Yes there is some correlation in a national election every 4 years with this kind of proposed power taking, but nothing like local political blowback should a governor or state sens/reps get involved and initiate something like this. Just look to CA...the state is trying (and largely failing) despite having a pretty strong mandate from their governor and state congress. Need to simplify the process and have the Feds guarantee partnership for any/all housing anywhere for property developers willing to partner with them - and keep it simple so ordinary folks can maybe build an ADU or duplex, triplex, etc.

Again I'll point to Washington state for a half-solution. In 1990 we passed the Growth Management Act, which requires that participating counties and all major cities (94% of the state pop) plan for and accommodate 20 years of growth per State projections. The GMA reduces sprawl and encourages infill.

It's not enough, and our zoned capacity is way too tight, resulting in expensive land. But we'll never have California-level issues.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Since you seem to have the time, and because I think you'd be interested, pull the quarterly GDP growth rate (inflation) and then pull the federal funds rate (or its equivalent) for each quarter going back to the Great Depression.

All this to say, we've never been and still aren't good at anticipating things and once we do act, we over-react.

The fact that recessions tend to follow Fed rate increases is by intent. And if this was the only reason for recessions it wouldn't be so bad. But sometimes the economy gets way ahead of itself to the point of "Irrational Exuberance" which causes times like the Great Recession/financial crisis.

But nobody, including the Fed accurately predicted a Pandemic or the ensuing supply chain problems and thought early on that 'this too shall pass' a lot quicker than it has. While some weren't that surprised in hindsight, nobody really thought after 50 years of peace in Europe that Putin would invade Ukraine.

What most people don't understand is that the Fed only sets one minor rate, the so-called "overnight rate" to large banks and 'qualified' institutions for parking money with the Fed. All consumer/business rates and all T-Bill rates are determined by Mr. Market. But the Fed deciding to raise their one little rate causes others to stop and wonder....

And if the rates double on Treasury Bills then interesting things may happen. Double the rates on now 30 Trillion $'s in government debt and we might learn the definition of austerity.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

Again I'll point to Washington state for a half-solution. In 1990 we passed the Growth Management Act, which requires that participating counties and all major cities (94% of the state pop) plan for and accommodate 20 years of growth per State projections. The GMA reduces sprawl and encourages infill.

It's not enough, and our zoned capacity is way too tight, resulting in expensive land. But we'll never have California-level issues.

I picked up a couple of gals who looked to be in their 40's who lived outside of Vancouver WA. Said they'd been there about 15 years. Portland was just the nicest place in the world - 15 years ago. Today, not so much; now they think Portland is just awful. Most of it goes to what everybody complains about: the homeless; the increase in crime; high living costs and in Portland all those 'riots'.

IIRC, Denver thought about, talked about growth limiting plans. After all Boulder had done this - but the results have nothing to do with affordability.

Turns out Denver didn't need a growth limiting plan as the Great Millennial Migration happened and the city center has exploded with dense growth. But this craze also came at the expense of the more traditional starter homes that were built in the 'burbs typically. As we've come to learn urban living is not so affordable.

The advantage of sprawl is better affordability

As new neighborhoods are created further out the old neighborhoods become less desirable over time and more affordable as a result. The exceptions are the favored city-areas where older homes will be more affordable within the context of high housing costs.

Scottsdale and the SE tech areas of Chandler and Gilbert as examples, older neighborhoods have generally held their values, proportionally, but generally housing costs are high. But in 'sprawling' Phoenix there's just tons of areas that have been left behind to deteriorate which leaves a lot of affordable homes for those that truly need them.

[mhays]

You don't need sprawl to be affordable. Dense infill can do that if you keep zoned capacity plentiful.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

You don't need sprawl to be affordable. Dense infill can do that if you keep zoned capacity plentiful.

But it all comes down to "desirability." You need less desirable areas or affordability is an illusion. Or give me one example where your 'theory' has worked.
BTW, I do keep pointing out how Denver has and continues to develop 'designated' affordable housing.

This is why I've also reverted to the value of protecting intercity neighborhoods ie protecting the character of the neighborhood. I have no desire to see Denver, the city center turn into a garbage dump. You can't necessarily prevent all the homeless nor crime but lose those people who anchor the city... well Denver has already "been there done that" and the "white flight" of the 1970's is not your best option to try and repeat even if it results from different reasons than white flight.

The Legacy of Denver’s Forced School Busing Era
June 2018 BY NATASHA GARDNER - 5280.com

While we're on the topic of desirability, KDVR has a follow-up to their piece about people moving out of Denver. They also obtained feedback for the reasons people moved away or are intending to move.
CHECK IT OUT. Of course we've already heard from many 'forumers' who have given their own feedback as to why they moved away.

[coolmandan03]

Not the people here or those that follow Not Just Bikes, but single family housing is what most American's want. I don't know of many people that enjoyed their apartment neighbors below, above, or to the sides of them. They would rather have 2,000+ sf of house, an extra bedroom and office, a media room, and a yard (albeit tiny). American's want large affordable homes - and no changes in zoning are going to change that. They'll just seek out the suburban life where it's available.

[bunt_q]

Media rooms - are those like the home theaters of the 1990s? I can live with suburbia surviving as long as golf dies.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Or give me one example where your 'theory' has worked.

Rio de Janeiro. You could've had a spot of your very own with stellar views in a favela walkable to Copacabana until the land use regulators showed up and put a stop to it all.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

You don't need sprawl to be affordable. Dense infill can do that if you keep zoned capacity plentiful.

^^TRUTH. However, the unsophisticated/untrained eye tends to equate density with large/expensive buildings, not necessarily with a duplex or fourplex here and there, everywhere. This is why the pre-WWII neighborhoods are so great; they have every imaginable mix of housing which, over the entirety of a neighborhood, makes it a dense neighborhood. Nothing like our overwhelming cruise ship model du jour.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Media rooms - are those like the home theaters of the 1990s? I can live with suburbia surviving as long as golf dies.

RIP Park Hill GC!

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Rio de Janeiro. You could've had a spot of your very own with stellar views in a favela walkable to Copacabana until the land use regulators showed up and put a stop to it all.

Who can forget Lola?

Personally, I've always been fond of that girl from Ipanema.

Here's a fun video of Rio from April, 2022 so like yesterday.

[TakeFive]

I love "missing middle" housing

Originally Posted by laniroj

^^TRUTH. However, the unsophisticated/untrained eye tends to equate density with large/expensive buildings, not necessarily with a duplex or fourplex here and there, everywhere. This is why the pre-WWII neighborhoods are so great; they have every imaginable mix of housing which, over the entirety of a neighborhood, makes it a dense neighborhood. Nothing like our overwhelming cruise ship model du jour.

Off of Colorado Blvd they tore that — down and built beautiful new (not affordable) apartments.

But I don't recall you responding to my post about all the new missing middle housing coming to Denver with access to transit etc. In case you missed it.

Welcome to Uplands

Housing for the missing middle at every price point. Built with affordability, mobility, and climate resilience in mind.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

Again I'll point to Washington state for a half-solution. In 1990 we passed the Growth Management Act, which requires that participating counties and all major cities (94% of the state pop) plan for and accommodate 20 years of growth per State projections. The GMA reduces sprawl and encourages infill.

It's not enough, and our zoned capacity is way too tight, resulting in expensive land. But we'll never have California-level issues.

I've worked in several areas of the country where these consortium entities operate within large metros...successfully near as I can tell. I wonder if it could work in CO given our home rule carve outs. We are a progressive state, but when it comes local property rights, municipalities round these parts are very proud and aren't really interested in working collectively.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I love "missing middle" housing


Off of Colorado Blvd they tore that — down and built beautiful new (not affordable) apartments.

But I don't recall you responding to my post about all the new missing middle housing coming to Denver with access to transit etc. In case you missed it.

I don't respond because there's no need for me to. You point to specific projects as though they're proof that housing is affordable or attainable. Technically, you're correct, that project is attainable and it's all great but I could care less about that project or any other projects unless the collective production of all those projects meaningfully changes housing affordability in Denver - which they do not and will not.

[TakeFive]

Talk about needed new construction

Does anybody know the Hotline to Trump?

Colorado needs to build a "Big Beautiful Wall" along the Continental Divide and this wall should be paid for by all states to the West of Colorado.

https://www.cpr.org/2022/04/12/front-range-air-quality-ozone-violations-epa/

An additional challenge is background pollution. Out-of-state sources account for one-half to two-thirds of the region's ozone total, according to aerial surveys and the Regional Air Quality Council, the air quality planning agency for the Front Range.

-----------------
No Need Agreed

Originally Posted by laniroj

I don't respond because there's no need for me to. You point to specific projects as though they're proof that housing is affordable or attainable. Technically, you're correct, that project is attainable and it's all great but I could care less about that project or any other projects unless the collective production of all those projects meaningfully changes housing affordability in Denver - which they do not and will not.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

But I don't recall you responding to my post about all the new missing middle housing coming to Denver with access to transit etc. In case you missed it.

Ehhhh..... it's Central Park (Stapleton) only smaller and without a choo-choo. Or it's Painted Prairie.


It was visionary 25 years ago, not so much now. It's hardly missing middle asides from the duplexes and townhomes, everything else such as triplexes, quads, three-stacks, multiplex's, live-work (not to mention in-neighborhood retail) is still absent.