DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

And Candi got stuck with the rich part of Park Hill too, where people probably vote in much higher numbers than the "I'm still registered to vote at my mom's house in Chicago[land]" crowd. I'd venture she might be in trouble now.

I think she was in trouble before. This definitely seals it imo. When I lived in Curtis Park, I knew more than a few Candi voters with buyer's remorse, both irl and based on Nextdoor threads. As long as someone sane and semi-competent runs in District 9 next year, we should see the end of Candiland.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Indeed. Denver can't supplement transportation funding enough to develop any kind of real intra-city rail system. But it can do enough to upgrade several of the core bus routes to BRT routes to create a comprehensive BRT network (Colfax, Federal, Broadway, Speer/Leetsdale, Alameda, etc) . Give me six to ten routes with 10 minute headways and 24-hour service and we can talk about next steps.

This is definitely what we should be focusing on rather than streetcars or other rail pipe dreams. I'm not sure what the transport professionals think about this, but I'd also like to see routes that go perpendicular through downtown. Eg N Federal > Colfax > S Colorado and N Colo > Colfax > S Federal. I feel like that would help increase the number of one seat rides. And the Speer/Leetsdale/Parker corridor should be a top priority after Colfax imo.

[texboy]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

And Candi got stuck with the rich part of Park Hill too, where people probably vote in much higher numbers than the "I'm still registered to vote at my mom's house in Chicago[land]" crowd. I'd venture she might be in trouble now.

I'm not in her district, but some recent comments she's made have made me aware of how blatantly moronic she is. She can go for sure.

[TakeFive]

Talking RTD? Not a problem; Let's get started.

The Honorable Mayor Hancock is doing his best to stay relevant.

More RTD Officers To Be Deployed As Part Of Denver Plan To Address Drugs, Crime At Union Station
March 30, 2022 By Jesse Sarles

DENVER (CBS4) – Denver’s mayor blames deadly, illegal drugs for the ongoing disturbances in the underground bus station and platforms at Union Station. He and other city leaders as well as RTD officials discussed efforts to make that area safer in a Wednesday news conference.

As always things take time.

Long-term, there’s also a plan to create a paid fare only area where only ticketed passengers can get in, but RTD CEO Debra Johnson says it will take 12 to 16 months to get the design and materials in place.

Naturally things get complicated.

“We do not want to limit access for people with disabilities, when you want to ensure that we maintain emergency exits. All of those different things will come into play, and it’s just contingent upon us being able to go through the procurement process and basically have a design that we can then leverage and ensure that we can get a contractor on board to address those design issues,” Johnson said.

No doubt RTD is counting on the recently passed 'Infrastructure Bill' for funding this (and other things). In any case this has my full support.

Breaking:
According to CBS4, RTD canceled four A Line trips this morning due to "Police Activity."

In the News
RTD's Telephone Information Center operating hours are temporarily changing due to staffing shortages.

NEXT STEPS FOR REIMAGINE RTD
03.29.2022

RTD concluded the comment period for the draft System Optimization Plan (SOP) on March 9. The draft SOP incudes recommendations for service redesign and development through 2027. The plan will guide RTD as it works to adapt to challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic and changes in commuting behavior.

For those who are interested
APTA recently released their 4th Quarter (and yearend) Ridership Report. Go Here.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

And Candi got stuck with the rich part of Park Hill too, where people probably vote in much higher numbers than the "I'm still registered to vote at my mom's house in Chicago[land]" crowd. I'd venture she might be in trouble now.

I can't think of a more un-Candi part of town than Park Hill. Gonna get interesting.

Sadly I think this inevitably will result in a race of Candi vs. some awful NIMBY stay at home mom

[bobg]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

This is definitely what we should be focusing on rather than streetcars or other rail pipe dreams. I'm not sure what the transport professionals think about this, but I'd also like to see routes that go perpendicular through downtown. Eg N Federal > Colfax > S Colorado and N Colo > Colfax > S Federal. I feel like that would help increase the number of one seat rides. And the Speer/Leetsdale/Parker corridor should be a top priority after Colfax imo.

We've had a process for it. This is roughly what the transit professionals/consultants with the city came up with:



If you want more details you can go through the 30mb document for Denver Moves.

Those of us who have been on this forum for awhile and have been to these meetings, realize that when they say Full BRT to Rail on the graphic that means some at grade rail solution (lrt/streetcar) will be part of the alternatives analysis but will likely be dismissed. Because we just don't need that LRT capacity in the medium term, nor can we afford to spend extra for excess capacity on any one corridor, especially when we have so many corridors we need to improve.

What needs to be done isn't really as big of a question as how to get it done. I had to Google when it was because it's been so long but the city had a pretty consequential public meeting where planners tried to pass off peak period side-running transit lanes as BRT for the solution for Colfax. Some on this forum spoke out at that meeting, others wrote scathing comments on the comment cards, and online. The city got the message and it ended up being true BRT proposed. That meeting took place in late August 2014.

The city has known that BRT should be the solution for Colfax for almost 8 years, we voted on a bond for it in 2017, and it's still 6 years away. In the time since that meeting the Cubs have won the world series, we've had a reality show president, a global pandemic and Russia has gone back to acting like the USSR. But still no BRT on Colfax.

I'm 100% with Bunt that BRT is a good incremental step in the right direction. But incremental change shouldn't take 14 years to implement. The city needs to identify the funding, streamline the planning, and have the political backbone/will to implement the other corridors faster.

[TakeFive]

Looking Ahead

The back half of this year should be very interesting with respect to both development and transit.

Making the Critical Decisions

I'd expect that by the end of the second quarter through the third quarter, that RTD will be pouring over data on the latest ridership numbers as well as revenue figures. I expect the guys over at CPR will keep us updated on the latest RTD challenges and brainstorming.

By the end of the 2nd quarter I would think we'd hear from RTD about the $'s they are getting from the Infrastructure Bill and how they propose to use them. The Good News is that there should be enough money to eliminate most of the deferred maintenance in the system.

This should be fun, exciting even

The money from the Infrastructure Bill has a significant pot specifically for transit bus "Electrification" and I'm sure RTD is already eyeballing how and where they want to take advantage of this.

RTD should be able obtain some good feedback on Boulder's new HOP zero emission buses by Proterra and operated by Via Mobility Services. The buses were put in service last May.

Of course, RTD has been using buses from BYD USA for the 16th street mall and would know how well they have performed.


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[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

The money from the Infrastructure Bill has a significant pot specifically for transit bus "Electrification" and I'm sure RTD is already eyeballing how and where they want to take advantage of this.

One of the challenges transit agencies are facing is that electrification tends to significantly increase overall operating costs, fleet sizes, etc. Charging isn't fast enough yet to not have to grow fleet sizes, to say nothing of the facility needs for both the charging infrastructure and the charging storage capacity. The federal programs are going to be great for places where this is already mandated, so any free money helps agencies that are already struggling to comply (see: California). But for many, the switch isn't likely to make sense after just a single infusion of dollars, absent some other force pushing them in that direction.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bobg

The city has known that BRT should be the solution for Colfax for almost 8 years, we voted on a bond for it in 2017, and it's still 6 years away.

Hell, conceptually this goes back a long, long way - over a decade.

Nathaniel Minor/Denverite (before he moved over to CPR) updated us last August.

The big, fancy Colfax bus project’s latest chapter is a request for money from the feds
Aug. 31, 2021

There is, perhaps, not a more I’m-on-public-transit-in-Denver experience ... than sitting on a traffic-stalled 15L bus on east Colfax Avenue.

The Regional Transportation District and the city and county of Denver have long-term plans to make that ride a whole lot speedier by dedicating an entire lane to buses in each direction of Colfax between downtown and the Aurora border. Buses would join regular traffic to the Colfax light rail station on Interstate 225.

A lot of the time/delay (as you point out) was converting to a full legit center-lane BRT design. It has taken a ton of time to get the "Placeholders" to accept this design - it's still controversial.

But this was an important step forward:

The governments announced Tuesday that they’d asked the Federal Transit Administration to let them join a grant program that could ultimately lead to up to $100 million to keep that project moving. It’s a key part of the city’s overarching goal of enabling more people to move by methods that aren’t their personal vehicles.

Initial cost estimates were in the $50 to $75 million range but as the design was upgraded and time has gone by so has the cost estimate.

The overall price tag could be between $200 million and $300 million in 2021 dollars, RTD’s letter to the FTA says. That’s significantly higher than the $168 million estimate Denverite reported in 2017.

Part of the challenge as Cirrus pointed out to us is that East Colfax:

is owned by the state Department of Transportation; the city and county do much of the maintenance on the road, and RTD operates the transit service. All those cooks in the kitchen means lots of coordination and planning is necessary.

So what's next? According to RTD

The request to enter in the project development phase is part one of a multi-year process. In August 2022, the partners will apply for a project score and in 2023, provide the FTA with a cost estimate and official funding request. If the FTA approves the Small Starts application, RTD will serve as sponsor for the project.

I'm now thinking that as a result of the "Infrastructure Bill" that this project should be able to be Expedited.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

One of the challenges transit agencies are facing is that electrification tends to significantly increase overall operating costs...

Partly, this is a political problem. At least with respect to electricity costs. I thought they had worked something out with Excel but if more needs to be done - in the interest of saving the environment - then that's a political problem that can be solved.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

One of the challenges transit agencies are facing is that electrification tends to significantly increase overall operating costs, fleet sizes, etc. Charging isn't fast enough yet to not have to grow fleet sizes, to say nothing of the facility needs for both the charging infrastructure and the charging storage capacity.

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Consider the East Colfax Connector BRT
RTD secures a site east of I-225 for drivers to take a 15-minute (bathroom) break while the bus is recharging.

Takes 5 to 10 minutes



Proterra is the Tesla of the bus world but this tech isn't exclusive to Proterra and it keeps getting better and faster all the time.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

The East Colfax BRT is so frustrating. I won't pretend to fully appreciate all of the complicating factors that serve to delay this project and inflate its cost. However, there's no reason why a 5 mile BRT should take a decade and cost more than a quarter of a billion dollars. It is absurd, unacceptable, and fundamentally undermines my trust in the government to deliver even conservative infrastructure projects. This is where China is absolutely killing us.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

One of the challenges transit agencies are facing is that electrification tends to significantly increase overall operating costs, fleet sizes, etc. Charging isn't fast enough yet to not have to grow fleet sizes, to say nothing of the facility needs for both the charging infrastructure and the charging storage capacity. The federal programs are going to be great for places where this is already mandated, so any free money helps agencies that are already struggling to comply (see: California). But for many, the switch isn't likely to make sense after just a single infusion of dollars, absent some other force pushing them in that direction.

What's the increase in operating costs being driven by? I see the capital expenditure increase in having to replace the fleet, add charging infrastructure, don't see storage as an add unless these transit agencies are trying to go DG. O&M offsets would be decreased fuel and maintenance (unless you're saying that ProTerra buses are unreliable POS's which I wouldn't be surprised by given the state of the commercial fleet electrification companies).

[TakeFive]

Electric buses for mass transit seen as cost effective
October 17, 2019 By Peter Maloney - American Public Power Association

Maintenance costs for the electric buses was $0.55 per mile compared with $1.53 for the diesel fleet.

And while electric buses are still more expensive that fossil fueled buses, electric buses can provide cost savings over the long run. An average diesel transit bus costs around $500,000, compared with $750,000 for an electric bus...

Over its lifetime, however, an electric bus could save $400,000 in fuel expenses and $125,000 in averted maintenance costs, according to figures from bus manufacturer New Flyer that were cited in the report.

Also consider that this report (2019) was prior to gas costs going up.

The average price for diesel fuel in 2020 in Denver was a little over $1.50/gallon. Today's average price for diesel in Denver is ~$4.85/gallon. Not sure why but that is up from $3.50 a month ago. Put that through your tailpipe and breath in deeply.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

What's the increase in operating costs being driven by? I see the capital expenditure increase in having to replace the fleet, add charging infrastructure, don't see storage as an add unless these transit agencies are trying to go DG. O&M offsets would be decreased fuel and maintenance (unless you're saying that ProTerra buses are unreliable POS's which I wouldn't be surprised by given the state of the commercial fleet electrification companies).

Virtually all the manufacturers are now making these including New Flyer (quoted above) which RTD has bought a boatload of buses from but AFAIK Proterra have been the most reliable and roadworthy.

[TakeFive]

Two key points to consider

While I've read the rumors, I haven't yet seen the final 'rules' in the transit portion of the Infrastructure Bill but:

1) I believe FTA funding will be available to cover a higher percentage of project costs. In this regard they may be able to kick the East Colfax Connector BRT from the "New Starts" program where funding is limited into a new pot that would cover most of the cost. If so, Denver/RTD is ideally positioned due to all the work that has already been done.

2) If the "electrification" pot covers a substantial (or even all of) the bus and recharging equipment costs then the decision is a No-brainer.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

What's the increase in operating costs being driven by? I see the capital expenditure increase in having to replace the fleet, add charging infrastructure, don't see storage as an add unless these transit agencies are trying to go DG. O&M offsets would be decreased fuel and maintenance (unless you're saying that ProTerra buses are unreliable POS's which I wouldn't be surprised by given the state of the commercial fleet electrification companies).

Keeping in mind the tech is getting better - currently, you can only assume 150 miles or so on a single charge (less in the winter with heating). And about three hours to charge. (Proterra has pilots that do better on both counts, but they are not the norm yet.)

So if you figure you're driving the Route 76 - to leave the bus barn and go to Littleton starting your day at 5:24am - you go back and forth 5 times, and you are calling it a day. At about 1:30 in the afternoon. You can go back to the barn and get on the charger - but you can't charge the whole fleet in the same 3 hour window to get them back out for the evening peak. So you need a second bus to do what could be done by a single bus before.

Over-simplifying, but that's the general idea. (It's why Bustang will really struggle - you need charges and standby buses all over the place at those distances.) Shorter urban routes, obviously, it's somewhat easier.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Keeping in mind the tech is getting better - currently, you can only assume 150 miles or so on a single charge (less in the winter with heating). And about three hours to charge. (Proterra has pilots that do better on both counts, but they are not the norm yet.) .

Got it. You’re talking full system replacement now vs incremental as technology matures.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Got it. You’re talking full system replacement now vs incremental as technology matures.

Well, chunky, if not full. The IIJA funding foodfight isn't going to wait for technology to mature.

[TakeFive]

I can see the concerns on Bustang routes given they travel so many miles - and on their mountain routes.

I did some checking and it seems early versions of Proterra had some issues, the biggest being getting replacement parts.

So far as I can tell Park City is happy with the Proterra heavy duty Catalyst buses. Both Breckenridge and Summit County are using Proterra buses for shuttle service which is very different from the demands needed by Bustang I'd assume.

[TakeFive]

Last Remaining Large Development Site in LoHi Sells for $10M
March 29, 2022 By Mile High CRE

Carmel Partners... has purchased one of the last remaining large development sites in the Denver Highlands neighborhood for $10 million. The 50,318-square-foot land assemblage ... is zoned for 5-story mixed-use development.

Images courtesy Capstone Land Team

[TakeFive]

245 New Residences Open at Legacy at Fitz in Aurora
March 30, 2022 - Mile High CRE


Image courtesy Legacy Partners

Legacy Partners ... today announced the opening of the second and final phase of Legacy at Fitz, a 363-residence apartment community located in Aurora, across the street from Fitzsimons Medical Center.

Phase I of Legacy at Fitz, located at 1363 N. Victor Street, opened in May 2021 and consisted of a five-story building with 109 residences and two townhome buildings with a total of nine three-bedroom units. Phase II includes the opening of 245 new residences.

There's a lot of new projects we don't 'really' cover but do end up adding to the overall inventory of living units. This project is interesting for a few reasons.

“Legacy at Fitz is one of the most unique new apartment communities in Aurora,” said R. Lane Cutter, senior managing director at Legacy. “We designed it to appeal to a wide range of residents — from affordability-seeking Denverites to those who work and live around the Anschutz Medical School area. The community has been filling up quickly since we opened the first phase and we expect leasing efforts to dramatically increase with the opening of these new residences and the diverse amenity areas.”

The project architect was Davis Partnership and Griffin Capital Private Equity was their 'equity' partner.

[TakeFive]

$90 million Denver Tech Center multifamily project planned amid low demand for office space
Mar 17, 2022 By Kate Tracy – Reporter , Denver Business Journal

Three real estate groups are teaming up to potentially build a seven-story residential building next to an existing office building in the Denver Tech Center. Principal Real Estate Investors, Miller Global Properties and the Opus Group have submitted a concept plan and a zoning lot amendment for 4600 S. Syracuse St. to build a seven-story, 252-unit apartment building with a pool and fitness amenities.

Currently on the 10.1-acre site is a 13-story, 304,000-square-foot building, a parking garage and plenty of surface parking. Plans show the new residential building will be built on the existing surface parking along East Union Avenue and South Ulster Street. The existing office and parking structure will remain as they are, as the concept plan proposes new construction only.

Supply and Demand has changed the landscape.

“There’s becoming a really high demand for multifamily residential in the Denver Tech Center space,” Nickerson said. “For people that don’t necessarily want to be downtown but they don’t want to be suburban either, the Denver Tech Center is in-between…it essentially provides more options for the people that would like to live in this area.”