Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[giallo]

Originally Posted by theman23

We hear a lot about Canadians needing to get to the new normal of not owning and just renting for the rest of their life, but it doesn’t seem like the rental market offers a much better option. All levels of government have failed quite miserably on the housing front.

When two white-collar professionals (one being a by-birth Canadian) can't even get past the application process due to "complicated" references, I've got to wonder how unbelievably difficult it must be for immigrant couples/family and young Canadians to find a place to rent in Metro Vancouver right now.

It's a landlord's market here. And I can totally understand why someone would look for the perfect tenant when given the luxury of having dozens and dozens of applications to chose from.

So, if this is the new normal, what happens now? Are we nearing some kind of tipping point where you have project managers and lawyers living in their cars?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

A recession will solve these problems. It's coming.

Governments will firehose cash around if that happens. 'Deficits don't matter politically' was the lesson learned by COVID. I'm not sure how long government can just hose cash on the economy and hope the good times continue, but I'd put my rapidly deflating $100 on it.

I'm curious how long government can drive an economy. The private sector sure isn't in the driver's seat anymore.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by giallo

When two white-collar professionals (one being a by-birth Canadian) can't even get past the application process due to "complicated" references, I've got to wonder how unbelievably difficult it must be for immigrant couples/family and young Canadians to find a place to rent in Metro Vancouver right now.

It's a landlord's market here. And I can totally understand why someone would look for the perfect tenant when given the luxury of having dozens and dozens of applications to chose from.

So, if this is the new normal, what happens now? Are we nearing some kind of tipping point where you have project managers and lawyers living in their cars?

Vancouver peacocking itself into irrelevance.

It's one thing for London, Paris, or New York City to do this. The hopes and dreams of the impressionable young looking for the big city life mean those places have a steady stream of new labour to take up the menial work that keeps them humming along while anybody who wants to get ahead leaves.

But Vancouver? I don't get the appeal.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by giallo

So, if this is the new normal, what happens now? Are we nearing some kind of tipping point where you have project managers and lawyers living in their cars?

You won't have that. Those professionals will leave.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You won't have that. Those professionals will leave.

And this is just it. The first conversations of possibly considering Calgary have come up. Toronto is a non-starter as the housing shortage is just as bad as Vancouver right now.

Both of our careers offer us opportunities all over the world. The reason we chose Canada is because my wife has always wanted to live here, it's where my family is, and we want to get my wife her permanent residency. As it turns out though, we don't need to be in Canada to get said residency. As long as we're together, it counts towards the days needed.

We passed on a job in Singapore and NYC. I think we might revisit those options if I can't get a place for us in the new couple of weeks.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by giallo

Both of our careers offer us opportunities all over the world. The reason we chose Canada is because my wife has always wanted to live here, it's where my family is, and we want to get my wife her permanent residency. As it turns out though, we don't need to be in Canada to get said residency. As long as we're together, it counts towards the days needed.

You can keep residency without being resident in Canada? First I've heard of this......

In any event, Canadians always complain about how everybody moves to TMV. Seems to me the market is sort of self-correcting here and providing incentives to relocate to other cities in Canada.

And ultimately, if housing costs keep hurting quality of life broadly in Canada, I expect we'll see substantial brain drain, as our most talented workers leave in droves.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You can keep residency without being resident in Canada? First I've heard of this......

In any event, Canadians always complain about how everybody moves to TMV. Seems to me the market is sort of self-correcting here and providing incentives to relocate to other cities in Canada.

And ultimately, if housing costs keep hurting quality of life broadly in Canada, I expect we'll see substantial brain drain, as our most talented workers leave in droves.

"To maintain your status as a permanent resident, you must live in Canada for at least 2 years - 730 days - within a 5 year period. During this time you must be physically in Canada."

My bad. It's not totally cut and dry. We do need to live in Canada for at least two years out of the five.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by giallo

And this is just it. The first conversations of possibly considering Calgary have come up. Toronto is a non-starter as the housing shortage is just as bad as Vancouver right now.

Both of our careers offer us opportunities all over the world. The reason we chose Canada is because my wife has always wanted to live here, it's where my family is, and we want to get my wife her permanent residency. As it turns out though, we don't need to be in Canada to get said residency. As long as we're together, it counts towards the days needed.

We passed on a job in Singapore and NYC. I think we might revisit those options if I can't get a place for us in the new couple of weeks.

Calgary and Edmonton, while not everyone's cup of tea, have grown by leaps and bounds in the past 2 decades, and since the oil crash housing hasn't really increased too much compared to BC or southern Ontario markets. Both cities are enjoyable if you develop a good friend network, and you'll find a lot of people that are fit and enjoy the great outdoors not unlike BC.

Owning a house versus renting is definitely nice for those with kids

[goodgrowth]

I said it before but Alberta has the most potential in Canada and is the most scalable province.

When you look at provinces in terms of topography/climate/population distribution and not just provincial boundaries...Alberta is the largest province. In some cases by a lot.

[samne]

I have been hearing more talk of Calgary as a possible destination for younger people from the GTA looking to settle and buy a home.

It can make sense. Calgary’s a large city with a good quality of life and reasonable cost of living. Alternative to small town Ontario 2 hours out of the GTA.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by samne

I have been hearing more talk of Calgary as a possible destination for younger people from the GTA looking to settle and buy a home.

It's all anecdotal. Nobody I know has considered Calgary for a move. It's usually (in no order) Vancouver, Montreal, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, or abroad.

[suburbanite]

Plenty of people love the idea of living in Calgary, but if you're currently working in Toronto in banking, law, finance, tech, etc. the reality is you won't have the same job opportunities and could be taking a step back in your career trajectory.

If someone offered me my current job and salary in Calgary I'd seriously consider it, as long as I got to work remotely on the projects I currently do here and wasn't dealing with strictly O&G.

[thebasketballgeek]

Yea it seems like all my relatives and friends here in Winnipeg are still moving to Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary in droves because despite being more expensive they still provide amenities and destinations that the pancake flatlands couldn’t compare too. Imo if you are just basing on house prices and wages while keeping most amenities of a major city the best area is the prairies, but I don’t think we talk about Quebec’s affordability enough. I understand Quebec City because of potential language barriers (which are overblown imo), but I’m surprised there isn’t a mass exodus to Montreal. Simply because it’s much cheaper then Toronto and Vancouver while providing all the amenities and paired with a great urban fabric.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Yea it seems like all my relatives and friends here in Winnipeg are still moving to Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary in droves because despite being more expensive they still provide amenities and destinations that the pancake flatlands couldn’t compare too. Imo if you are just basing on house prices and wages while keeping most amenities of a major city the best area is the prairies, but I don’t think we talk about Quebec’s affordability enough. I understand Quebec City because of potential language barriers (which are overblown imo), but I’m surprised there isn’t a mass exodus to Montreal. Simply because it’s much cheaper then Toronto and Vancouver while providing all the amenities and paired with a great urban fabric.

I have an extended family member who ended up moving to the Gatineau side of the Ottawa CMA after renting in Ontario for years due to the lower real estate costs, and everyone in my family was yammering on trying to warn them about the "higher taxes that will kill you" and "having to speak french".

The language barrier is real, even in the most-english areas of the province like Gatineau, and there is an overblown common misconception about how high Quebec's taxes really are (they are higher than Ontario, but not by some insane degree).

[casper]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Yea it seems like all my relatives and friends here in Winnipeg are still moving to Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary in droves because despite being more expensive they still provide amenities and destinations that the pancake flatlands couldn’t compare too. Imo if you are just basing on house prices and wages while keeping most amenities of a major city the best area is the prairies, but I don’t think we talk about Quebec’s affordability enough. I understand Quebec City because of potential language barriers (which are overblown imo), but I’m surprised there isn’t a mass exodus to Montreal. Simply because it’s much cheaper then Toronto and Vancouver while providing all the amenities and paired with a great urban fabric.

I grew up in Vancouver, moved to small town Manitoba for 6 months after university, then with the same company to the Ottawa Valley for 6 year. Then changed employers spending 13 years in Saskatoon before coming back to BC.

Traveled for business a lot into Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal. Not certain I would want to live in any of these cities. It is not because of the cost of housing. They are just big cities with good but not fantastic public transit. You would end up spending a lot of time sitting in traffic.

Winnipeg and Saskatoon are great. It does get cold in winter. Victoria solves that problem.

I think the ideal Canadian city is somewhere between 300,000 and 1 M. Below that you don't have the city amenities. Above that it is starting to get to big.

[samne]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's all anecdotal. Nobody I know has considered Calgary for a move. It's usually (in no order) Vancouver, Montreal, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, or abroad.

Of course those are real favoured lifestyle or career destinations. Aside from visa requirements to live/work in US. I’m saying Calgary as an alternative to Exurb or even further out Ontario real estate.

At what point does your budget mean 2 hours outside the city make sense when you can live in a real city like Calgary for comparable price.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Vancouver peacocking itself into irrelevance.

It's one thing for London, Paris, or New York City to do this. The hopes and dreams of the impressionable young looking for the big city life mean those places have a steady stream of new labour to take up the menial work that keeps them humming along while anybody who wants to get ahead leaves.

But Vancouver? I don't get the appeal.

But obviously the appeal is there or the prices wouldn’t be where they are. Vancouver has the best climate of any major city in Canada (or at least just behind Victoria). The natural setting is one of the worlds best and there’s easy access to nature. Add in the international appeal of lax scrutiny of where money is coming from and its not surprising.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But obviously the appeal is there or the prices wouldn’t be where they are. Vancouver has the best climate of any major city in Canada (or at least just behind Victoria). The natural setting is one of the worlds best and there’s easy access to nature. Add in the international appeal of lax scrutiny of where money is coming from and its not surprising.

I think I'm attacking this from the standpoint of a upper middle-class person drawing semi-logical conclusions. When you're dealing with an upper crust throwing around money that I'll never be able to clear in a lifetime of effort, it's a whole different ballgame.

When renting is beyond the upper middle-class, I don't see how long momentum stays in Vancouver's favour. Sure, you can get people cruising on existing tenancies, or who got in early to a house, but I don't get how one stays there beyond a point. The bottom has to come out at some point, or stratify into an exclusive enclave of sorts.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I have an extended family member who ended up moving to the Gatineau side of the Ottawa CMA after renting in Ontario for years due to the lower real estate costs, and everyone in my family was yammering on trying to warn them about the "higher taxes that will kill you" and "having to speak french".

The language barrier is real, even in the most-english areas of the province like Gatineau, and there is an overblown common misconception about how high Quebec's taxes really are (they are higher than Ontario, but not by some insane degree).

The general perception of the language barrier ebbs and flows according to historical moments and time and even who you talk to, but generally speaking it is real and not a "nothingburger". Though obviously not insurmountable as "not speaking any French" is not an unchangeable permanent status. At least not necessarily.

To sum up, it being easy to always find someone who can speak English (as it is in this region) is not quite the same as English always being on offer in all situations without having to ask for it or insist.

There is for example the fact that when people shout out instructions to a crowd of people, they are more often than not in French only. And so when a lady working at IGA yells out to everyone "caisse 22, argent comptant seulement" and you have no idea what that means, and end up at checkout 22 intending to pay with a card and have no cash on you, then find out (after all your stuff has been scanned) that it's cash only, it's a pain in the ass that won't happen to you over in Ottawa.

Or even the fact that most mom and pop bakeries and other smaller food shops here generally have homemade labels on their products listing ingredients only in French. I suppose if I were allergic or one my children was, I'd want to know the names of the allergens in French, and hope that there isn't some other word for it out there, that I didn't learn.

[SignalHillHiker]

I haven’t been in years but I never found Quebec City bad at all. I always tried to middle through French first but lots of people voluntarily spoke English, or said I could but replied in slower French. No one was ever rude, etc. I remember once flying back from Montreal to St. John’s and the flight attendant in his announcement said, in French, if you can speak English please do, sorry, as they had no one fluent.

Jeddy1989 (fluent in Spanish) just finished three months in Malaga and still isn’t ready to face a St. John’s spring so he’s now in Mexico. It’s been less than 24 hours and he’s already messaged us to say: “The Brits have a bad rep in Spain and I did see a bit of their arrogant behaviour but they have NOTHING on the Americans. I’ve already seen a man red-faced screaming at a waitress that they should have at least one staff member who speaks English at all times. She just replied, in Spanish, you’re in Mexico.”

I’m curious if anglophone Canadians get on with that in Quebec. I assume not as much, but it probably happens.