The US Census Bureau thread

[Steely Dan]

big urban metros were apparently big losers.

no real surprise there, but i didn't think the numbers would be this bad.


April 2020 census to July 2021 estimate by MSA (approximations):

NY: -370,000
LA: -200,000
Miami: -140,000
SF: -125,000
Chicago: -110,000

source: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hin...ion-dropped-during-height-covid-pandemic

[bnk]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

We’ll have to wait until 2022 to guess at the deeper trends. Labor Force data shows a deep employment trough that recovered in many places after July 2021.


https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2...alf-of-states-between-2020-and-2021.html

Well at least Chicagoland still knows how makes babies. MSP, Grand rapids...too

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by bnk

Well at least Chicagoland still makes babies.

Chicago has been breaking headboards during the pandemic.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by bnk

Well at least Chicagoland still makes babies.

i suspect that births over deaths in chicagoland might have more to do with the fact that we export a metric —-ton of our retirees every year to places like FL and AZ where they end up dying, instead of back up in sweet home, chicago.

so i don't think chicagoland is some big baby-making outlier, we probably just have relatively fewer old people who hang around here to die. a great many of them move down to god's various waiting rooms in the sunbelt.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

big urban metros were apparently big losers.

no real surprise there, but i didn't think the numbers would be this bad.


April 2020 census to July 2021 estimate by MSA (approximations):

NY: -370,000
LA: -200,000
Miami: -140,000
SF: -125,000
Chicago: -110,000

I think it’s just a crapshoot year for census estimates.

Looking at other Surveys like BLS data.

You look at New York, and it makes sense. You expect them to be hit hard with lots of movement in 2020 and early 2021. 1st quarter of 2021 was a real low point.

New York County





Then you look at Cook County, and the numbers are all over the place. Extremely volatile.

Cook County

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i suspect that births over deaths in chicagoland might have more to do with the fact that we export a metric —-ton of our retirees every year to places like FL and AZ where they end up dying, instead of back up in sweet home, chicago.

so i don't think chicagoland is some big baby-making outlier, we probably just have relatively fewer old people who hang around here to die. a great many of them move down to god's various waiting rooms in the sunbelt.

Probably right, Florida is pretty brown, same with Tucson and Colorado River counties of Arizona.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I think it’s just a crapshoot year for census estimates.

Looking at other Surveys like BLS data.

You look at New York, and it makes sense. You expect them to be hit hard with lots of movement in 2020 and early 2021. 1st quarter of 2021 was a real low point.

New York County





Then you look at Cook County, and the numbers are all over the place. Extremely volatile.

Cook County

I find it odd that Chicago rebounded and then some, while NY never fully recovered

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I think it’s just a crapshoot year for census estimates.

fair point.

and we also have to take these figures with the GIGANTIC grains of salt that always come along with CB "estimates" of big messy urban cities with lots of natural people churn.

even prior to the pandemic, their track record in that particular arena was less than spotty.

[jboy560]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I find it odd that Chicago rebounded and then some, while NY never fully recovered

This is a complete anecdote but I feel like I’ve been meeting a TON of people moving from NYC to Chicago lately. A lot of them visited Chicago after the pandemic, loved the city, and were able to make the move since they work remotely now. One guy I know is trying to convince his social circle to relocate here, too. In general, I feel like I’m meeting more people that just moved here from other places (more than usual). Maybe Chicago is finally starting to build some momentum and having greater appeal since it’s one of the few affordable large cities left in the country?

[BnaBreaker]

Originally Posted by Cashville

Davidson Co (Nashville) the fastest declining county in TN, not sure I completely buy it but a lot of locals are cashing out and moving to the burbs.

Not surprising is the definitive line separating the mid green of Middle TN to the stagnant/declining counties of West TN, it follows the exact line of the Grand Divisions, unfortunately I don't see that side of the state catching up with the rest anytime soon.

The Davidson County estimate doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It has been growing steadily for several decades now. Even between 2020 and 2021 there were 12,000 residential permits issued, tower cranes abound, and construction of varying degrees of magnitude continues all over the city... but somehow it's suddenly shrinking faster than Wayne County Michigan? What's more, is that according to the second map births still far outweigh deaths, so it can't be a Covid thing. Something doesn't add up there.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by jboy560

This is a complete anecdote but I feel like I’ve been meeting a TON of people moving from NYC to Chicago lately. A lot of them visited Chicago after the pandemic, loved the city, and were able to make the move since they work remotely now. One guy I know is trying to convince his social circle to relocate here, too. In general, I feel like I’m meeting more people that just moved here from other places (more than usual). Maybe Chicago is finally starting to build some momentum and having greater appeal since it’s one of the few affordable large cities left in the country?

If there's momentum it's certainly not in these census numbers... unless I'm reading it wrong it only looks to be getting worse.

-91,671 from this dataset (metro data)
-47,644 the year before
-25,619 the year before that
-22,068 the year before that
+13,286 the year before that

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

If there's momentum it's certainly not in these census numbers... unless I'm reading it wrong it only looks to be getting worse.

-91,671 from this dataset (metro data)
-47,644 the year before
-25,619 the year before that
-22,068 the year before that
+13,286 the year before that

They were referring to a chart I posted about civilian labor force which does monthly population surveys.

Starting from about September 2021, the Federal Reserve started seeing a large labor force spike in Cook County.

January 2022 reported 2,660,069 persons employed or looking for work.

Jan 2019 - 2,601,929
Jan 2020 - 2,552,262
Jan 2021 - 2,478,857
Jan 2022 - 2,660,069

The January 2022 numbers are notably higher than some pre-pandemic June employment peaks.

Jun 2018 - 2,641,905
Jun 2019 - 2,634,904
Jun 2020 - 2,639,878
Jun 2021 - 2,606,945

January-June 2021 looks like record low population. But the data coming in from after July 2021 is looking crazy for the Chicago region.

So the census estimates have to be viewed with caution if they were working from a similar dataset. The estimates are comprehensive, but the situation is very volatile.

[badrunner]

This was already posted in the census thread. A lot of urban counties lost population during covid.

[sentinel]

I'll curious to see what the change is between 2021 and 2022 ant the end of this year, or if there will be a noticeable change.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

2021 numbers for vital statistics in the US are out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,100

2021 --- 3,600,000 --- 3,428,549

Excess deathsby Covid is about 1 million in 2020-2021. 2022 is not looking promising and the US is heading for at least 3.2 million or more, way above 2019.

It's crazy to think that as late as 2007, the US was registering a 1.9 million natural growth. In 2021, it fell to 180k. Getting very close to negative terrain.

2021 final numbers out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,084

2021 --- 3,600,335 --- 3,452,292

Projecting 2022, given the number of Covid deaths are still very high, there are good chances that deaths might have outnumbered births in the 1Q/2022 as it happened for some period in 2020 and 2021.

[dubu]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Quickly now, everyone move to Idaho!

The PNW is way too expensive already. It used to be cheap till everyone started moving here.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Chicago has been breaking headboards during the pandemic.

can confirm, have baby now.

[xzmattzx]

Some observations with that map, which are not really groundbreaking:

~ The western Plains look like they're in very bad shape (other than the Black Hills). They could be worse off than Appalachia.
~ Illinois is starting to look like West Virginia.
~ Population losses in Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta, and the Black Belt.
~ Idaho and western Montana are looking quite impressive. Utah and Nevada look good too.
~ Ex-urban areas are looking good: Cape Cod, the Poconos, central Maryland and the western panhandle of West Virginia, central Virginia, etc.
~ There's a doughnut around Atlanta.
~ Population growth in northern Michigan, northern Wisconsin, and northern/central Minnesota is interesting.

[cabasse]

seems like every core county of a 5M+ metro in the south showed decline - including fulton/dekalb, dade, harris and dallas - and even pinellas and orlando counties in FL.

[RST500]

New Census Data:

Total Foreign Born Population (all over 250K listed)
New York City: 5,652,127
Los Angeles: 4,325,657
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 1,665,902
Chicago: 1,665,972
Houston: 1,623,238
San Francisco: 1,443,907
Washington DC: 1,425,833
Dallas/Fort Worth: 1,376,117
Riverside/San Bernardino: 970,946
Boston: 918,197
Atlanta: 824,037
San Jose: 775,906
San Diego: 762,260
Seattle/Tacoma: 754,554
Phoenix: 690,389
Philadelphia: 676,070
Las Vegas: 492,606
Orlando: 481,158
Tampa: 446,559
Detroit: 434,744
Sacramento: 432,925
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 383,193
Denver: 346,314
Austin: 322,738
Portland, OR: 314,891
San Antonio: 290,406
Baltimore: 289,320
Charlotte: 269,879

New York City - 43 Countries
Dominican Republic: 636,253
China: 522,232
India: 357,012
Jamaica: 248,255
Ecuador: 239,909
Haiti: 160,525
Philippines: 145,434
Colombia: 178,839
Guyana: 169,406
Korea: 137,017
El Salvador: 133,718
Bangladesh: 106,009
Italy: 104,508
Peru: 104,182
Poland: 101,075
Trinidad and Tobago: 100,565
Guatemala: 85,578
Russia: 85,445
Ukraine: 84,442
Pakistan: 75,949
Honduras: 72,201
United Kingdom: 66,491
Cuba: 60,694
Brazil: 57,839
Egypt: 51,701
Nigeria: 45,673
Ghana: 44,130
Germany: 40,356
Portugal: 38,503
Israel: 34,690
Japan: 33,027
Uzbekistan: 30,764
Ireland: 30,641
Argentina: 28,407
Barbados: 27,504
Grenada: 27,317
Turkey: 27,412
France: 26,853
Albania: 26,201
Vietnam: 24,353
Venezuela: 22,830
Romania: 22,503
Spain: 21,749

Los Angeles - 20 Countries
Mexico: 1,547,703
China: 358,193
Philippines: 297,191
El Salvador: 285,707
Vietnam: 251,499
Korea: 209,026
Guatemala: 185,803
Iran: 137,632
India: 95,957
Armenia: 69,157
Japan: 48,447
United Kingdom: 44,517
Honduras: 37,466
Peru: 32,308
Cambodia: 27,070
Thailand: 24,818
Russia: 24,368
Nicaragua: 23,726
Colombia: 22,902
Germany: 22,619

Miami/Fort Lauderdale - 18 Countries
Cuba: 797,501
Haiti: 226,300
Colombia: 183,971
Jamaica: 141,347
Venezuela: 137,417
Nicaragua: 86,740
Honduras: 69,943
Mexico: 69,470
Dominican Republic: 67,865
Peru: 61,272
Brazil: 59,979
Argentina: 43,080
Guatemala: 42,700
Ecuador: 30,261
El Salvador: 29,555
Trinidad and Tobago: 24,305
India: 22,556
China: 22,253

Washington DC - 18 Countries
El Salvador: 190,597
India: 106,105
China: 74,168
Korea: 62,110
Guatemala: 53,812
Ethiopia: 53,506
Vietnam: 48,403
Mexico: 47,797
Philippines: 46,346
Peru: 40,116
Honduras: 38,590
Pakistan: 30,467
Bolivia: 27,928
Nigeria: 27,897
Ghana: 24,795
Jamaica: 24,385
Iran: 22,105
Colombia: 20,503

Houston - 14 Countries
Mexico: 591,287
El Salvador: 124,946
Vietnam: 98,789
India: 88,109
Honduras: 73,648
China: 67,000
Nigeria: 46,133
Guatemala: 42,754
Philippines: 41,367
Venezuela: 37,489
Pakistan: 31,254
Colombia: 30,479
Cuba: 30,392
United Kingdom: 21,567

Boston - 11 Countries
China: 105,200
Dominican Republic: 81,150
India: 64,240
Brazil: 55,290
Haiti: 54,293
El Salvador: 37,814
Vietnam: 25,257
Cabo Verde: 24,843
Guatemala: 23,390
Colombia: 20,557
United Kingdom: 20,397

Chicago - 10 Countries
Mexico: 601,025
India: 146,171
Poland: 125,024
Philippines: 82,206
China: 74,986
Korea: 35,842
Pakistan: 29,125
Ukraine: 28,542
Guatemala: 22,818
Vietnam: 20,909

Dallas/Fort Worth - 10 Countries
Mexico: 589,607
India: 129,370
Vietnam: 70,767
El Salvador: 62,169
China: 46,151
Philippines: 26,209
Nigeria: 26,145
Korea: 24,250
Honduras: 24,133
Pakistan: 21,259

San Francisco - 9 Countries
China: 301,826
Mexico: 218,056
Philippines: 162,540
India: 143,267
Vietnam: 58,397
El Salvador: 56,771
Korea: 32,282
Guatemala: 32,062
United Kingdom: 23,750

Atlanta - 8 Countries
Mexico: 139,103
India: 87,840
Jamaica: 40,240
Vietnam: 36,119
China: 36,107
Korea: 34,659
Nigeria: 22,428
Guatemala: 21,941

Orlando - 8 Countries
Haiti: 39,891
Colombia: 39,051
Venezuelan: 38,051
Cuba: 30,015
Dominican Republic: 28,160
Jamaica: 27,917
Mexico: 25,819
Brazil: 22,092

Seattle/Tacoma - 7 Countries
Mexico: 91,161
China: 88,057
India: 82,467
Philippines: 52,467
Vietnam: 48,507
Korea: 40,373
Ukraine: 22,959

Philadelphia - 7 Countries
India: 84,338
China: 57,697
Mexico: 46,668
Dominican Republic: 32,013
Vietnam: 25,107
Korea: 23,241
Jamaica: 21,213

Riverside/San Bernardino - 6 countries
Mexico: 555,948
Philippines: 69,345
China: 44,898
El Salvador: 31,970
Guatemala: 24,562
Vietnam: 22,795

San Diego - 6 Countries
Mexico: 323,158
Philippines: 92,576
China: 39,872
Vietnam: 36,159
India: 27,851
Iraq: 22,708

San Jose - 6 Countries
China: 136,581
Mexico: 133,149
India: 128,853
Vietnam: 103,106
Philippines: 57,317
Korea: 21,753

Detroit - 6 Countries
India: 55,538
Iraq: 52,608
Mexico: 35,972
China: 20,871
Yemen: 20,511
Lebanon: 20,460

Las Vegas - 5 Countries
Mexico: 176,929
Philippines: 74,842
China: 22,997
Cuba: 21,996
El Salvador: 21,505

Sacramento - 5 Countries
Mexico: 103,132
Philippines: 39,095
China: 34,112
India: 29,729
Vietnam: 27,589

Minneapolis/St. Paul - 5 Countries
Mexico: 42,790
Somalia: 28,839
India: 28,546
Laos: 22,354
Ethiopia: 20,983

Phoenix - 4 Countries
Mexico: 343,807
India: 40,765
Philippines: 24,175
China: 23,500

Tampa - 4 Countries
Cuba: 74,951
Mexico: 37,105
Colombia: 24,107
India: 23,392

Portland, OR - 3 Countries
Mexico: 75,676
China: 23,606
Vietnam: 22,702

Charlotte - 3 Countries
Mexico: 54,231
India: 32,704
Honduras: 21,171

Austin - 2 Countries
Mexico: 127,393
India: 33,464

Baltimore - 2 Countries
India: 25,764
China: 20,134

Denver - 1 Country
Mexico: 137,279

San Antonio - 1 Country
Mexico: 176,828