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Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller
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1. No, this doesn’t show a “reversal of the recent trend of population growth.” 2020 was a very strange year, obviously, due to the pandemic. I would say this was 100% a fluke year due to a global pandemic, and not indicative of a new norm or trend.
2. We all knew the city “lost” population during the pandemic. Keep in mind the 2020 census was a culmination of all population trends from 2011 to 2020. The decennial population counts are even estimates in themselves, but are far more accurate, and are usually counted in the months leading up to April 1st of that year. So, the 2020 census is the population as of January, February and March of 2020. The pandemic hit at the end of March 2020. The yearly estimates are as of July 1st, so therefore, this population estimates covers the pandemic and maybe only a few months of the beginning of the recovery. There were estimates that Philly “lost” 30,000+ residents during the pandemic. So, if anything, this population estimate may show a slight recovery already of anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 people by early to mid 2021.
3. The population “loses” are most likely temporary and not permanent, and are more than likely mostly students staying home, renters not renewing their leases and moving back with their parents, and the upper class and those with suburban, countryside, beach or vacation homes moving to those properties during the pandemic. We all know students were remote, and with everything shut down during the pandemic, people fearful of getting the virus, rioting/looting/protesting/civil unrest, etc… people were looking for more space and breathing room during this time.
4. The population “estimates” show that NYC metro, LA metro, DC Metro, San Fran Metro, Chicago Metro, Miami Metro etc. “lost” anywhere from 100,000 up to 300,000+ residents, and Philly Metro only “lost” about 15,000. If these estimates are close to factual, I would say that’s a HUGE win for the city and metro area, and the region actually fared pretty well when compared to other major metros. Andddd… where did all of these people go????? Seriously. I just don’t really believe these estimates.
5. A big factor in population growth for the Northeastern Metros is Immigration, which was basically nonexistent during the pandemic.
6. These are ESTIMATES. They’re basically educated guesses at best. Why anyone continues to put any stock in the yearly estimates is completely mind boggling to me. The only numbers that are close to factual are the decennial census counts, and even these are not 100% accurate.
7. If you’ve been to Philadelphia in the past several months, there’s no way you can’t see that the city is on a fierce comeback. The streets are lively again, everything is opening back up, places that closed permanently during the pandemic are being replaced at a rapid clip. The streets are being cleaned up again. There’s construction EVERYWHERE. Not just in Center City either - I can name at least 40 city neighborhoods with active ongoing construction currently. Obviously there are lingering issues from during the pandemic and before, with crime being the most notable…. BUT the city has an obvious swagger and vibe to it likes it’s on a comeback. You can feel it. And with such a tight housing market even within the city (in both the limited number of for sale homes and the high occupancy rate for apartments), despite an insane amount of the new construction, I have NO DOUBT that the city has either fully recovered, or has almost fully recovered any temporary population loses during the pandemic.
I do believe this was a fluke year due to a global pandemic and civil unrest, and not indicative of a new norm or trend. I have no doubt 2022 will show a population increase, for the city and the region. You don’t have all of this new construction with population loses. Plus, the city and region is ON FIRE lately with all of the life sciences luster, so there’s no doubt in my mind that this region is due for increased growth into the future.