Vancouver Civic Election 2022

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I believe I called Kirby-Yung a moderate, not a reactionary. She has taken a fairly NIMBY line against some more conspicuous items like 2538 Birch.



Fair enough, so here's another one showing total votes since 2020.
Note Hardwick's giant "abstain" pile, which is when you don't want to vote Yes but really don't want a No on the record. There's really no graph that shows her as a moderate; she's been even against the recent sixplex rezonings.

Chinatown's character and filth appear to be one and the same in Vancouver's case, especially right now; most of the newer openings are for upscale or artisanal venues, not local/traditional ones, and in modern developments and renovations. Like it or not, the options seem to have narrowed down to "adapt" or "perish."

Yeah, Calgary hasn't always had it at 20% - now they have it at over 30%. That's its sixth year in a slump. Attractive cities don't have boom-bust cycles to begin with, because there's always somebody waiting to fill the vacuum... evidence would indicate that all the tax breaks in the world can't overcome the fact that they'd have to live in Calgary. Same reason you wouldn't buy a dirt-cheap mansion in Cleveland.

Vancouver's problem is a supply one, not demand - we stopped building office towers for a few years sometime during the Robertson administration, and now we're trying to catch up. If 5.7 million square feet under construction and 6.7 million in the pipeline (a ninefold increase over current available space) doesn't increase the vacancy rate, nothing will.
I'll concede that the lack of big floorplates is a problem. That's probably why we're building The Post and Main Alley Campus, among others.

I see that most of the newer restaurant openings in Chinatown have paid homage to history and have worked hard and spent money to bridge the two. That shows people do care about preserving the heritage of the area and are willing to put their money where their mouths are. Now it’s the city’s turn. San Fran stepped up to the plate but we sadly have not.

Calgary’s cycle is down now, but it will bounce back. Maybe real soon given the prices at the pump currently.
Vancouver actually stopped building commercial way before Robertson came around. I think it was during Owen’s time (maybe? Or just after). We’ve been playing “catch up” for a generation now. Now to be fair to infant have gotten better, but they still aren’t healthy. That vacancy rate needs to hover around 10% and we’re nowhere near that. We build to suit current needs so that by the time the project is complete, you’re already in the red zone for vacancy and need to start the process again. Meanwhile landlords exploit this situation and Jack up rates to levels that do not match the area’s economic standing. Tax breaks was the driver that lead Calgary to surpass us for head offices and leave us in the dust. And before people say “but oil” Edmonton is even closer to the oil and home to regulatory bodies, but Calgary surpassed them too. Also, non oil companies located there too instead of us; a much more logical choice geographically in some instances.

[GenWhy?]

I think Calgary has had an overall office vacancy above 10% since 2014, hence companies moving there, for a large part, over the last few years. Been above 20% since 2016.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

Calgary’s cycle is down now, but it will bounce back. Maybe real soon given the prices at the pump currently.
Vancouver actually stopped building commercial way before Robertson came around. I think it was during Owen’s time (maybe? Or just after). We’ve been playing “catch up” for a generation now. Now to be fair to infant have gotten better, but they still aren’t healthy. That vacancy rate needs to hover around 10% and we’re nowhere near that. We build to suit current needs so that by the time the project is complete, you’re already in the red zone for vacancy and need to start the process again. Meanwhile landlords exploit this situation and Jack up rates to levels that do not match the area’s economic standing. Tax breaks was the driver that lead Calgary to surpass us for head offices and leave us in the dust. And before people say “but oil” Edmonton is even closer to the oil and home to regulatory bodies, but Calgary surpassed them too. Also, non oil companies located there too instead of us; a much more logical choice geographically in some instances.

Let's hope for Calgary's sake it 'bounces back', but right now it isn't. In the past 12 months (to Q4 2021) according to CBRE, Vancouver added 1,515,000 sf of new office space, and absorbed 1,016,000 sf, so the vacancy rate went up slightly to 7.0% (7.2% Downtown). There were 3,703,000 sf of new buildings under construction.

Calgary added 78,000 sf of new office space, and absorbed -2,438,000 sf, so the vacancy rate went up to 30.4% (33.2% Downtown). There were no new buildings under construction.

Calgary's office rents are half those of Vancouver, and yet they're still seeing office space emptying out. Edmonton's occupied space went down too, and their vacancy rate is over 20%. Nothing's being built there either.

You seem to enjoy trash talking Vancouver even while it's currently the best performing office market in Canada. As this is the Civic Election thread, it's relevant to point out that in recent years City Council have approved every office proposal that developers have proposed, almost always unanimously (except for Councillors Hardwick, Kirby-Young and Swanson on small mixed-use projects).

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

I see that most of the newer restaurant openings in Chinatown have paid homage to history and have worked hard and spent money to bridge the two. That shows people do care about preserving the heritage of the area and are willing to put their money where their mouths are. Now it’s the city’s turn. San Fran stepped up to the plate but we sadly have not.

Calgary’s cycle is down now, but it will bounce back. Maybe real soon given the prices at the pump currently.
Vancouver actually stopped building commercial way before Robertson came around. I think it was during Owen’s time (maybe? Or just after). We’ve been playing “catch up” for a generation now. Now to be fair to infant have gotten better, but they still aren’t healthy. That vacancy rate needs to hover around 10% and we’re nowhere near that. We build to suit current needs so that by the time the project is complete, you’re already in the red zone for vacancy and need to start the process again. Meanwhile landlords exploit this situation and Jack up rates to levels that do not match the area’s economic standing. Tax breaks was the driver that lead Calgary to surpass us for head offices and leave us in the dust. And before people say “but oil” Edmonton is even closer to the oil and home to regulatory bodies, but Calgary surpassed them too. Also, non oil companies located there too instead of us; a much more logical choice geographically in some instances.

If you think Straight Outta Brooklyn, London Pub or Hunnybee are trying to fit in, then you're entitled to such an opinion, but I would strongly disagree with it.

Again, boom-bust economy. Non-oil companies moved there during the boom, now they're staying away during the bust.
That sticker shock is the refineries' new break-even rate in the middle of the whole Ukraine thing, not added profit. Calgary's at half our average rent and still struggling, as is Edmonton, so I have a hard time seeing any kind of bounce in the near future.

Good thing we're building 9x the amount of currently vacant space, as previously mentioned - if demand is as low as you say, that's up to 41% vacancy.

[GenWhy?]

As I mentioned before, hearing from companies looking for larger office space, and internally with companies we work with, the largest factor impacting employment / healthy growth and a sustainable, stable economy in the city is housing affordability related.

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by Changing City

You seem to enjoy trash talking Vancouver even while it's currently the best performing office market in Canada. As this is the Civic Election thread, it's relevant to point out that in recent years City Council have approved every office proposal that developers have proposed, almost always unanimously (except for Councillors Hardwick, Kirby-Young and Swanson on small mixed-use projects).

I don’t enjoy it (quite to the contrary actually), but I don’t live in a dream world either where i can ignore the dumbass policies in the city either.

And since it is an election thread, I will wait until they approve something that doesn’t conform to the needless, never ending stream of artificial limits they have dreamed up.

By what metric is Vancouver the best performing office market? (Although am
Encouraged by that 7% vacancy), Are we looking at the whole picture or only looking at one aspect isolation of everything else?

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If you think Straight Outta Brooklyn, London Pub or Hunnybee are trying to fit in, then you're entitled to such an opinion, but I would strongly disagree with it.

Again, boom-bust economy. Non-oil companies moved there during the boom, now they're staying away during the bust.
That sticker shock is the refineries' new break-even rate in the middle of the whole Ukraine thing, not added profit. Calgary's at half our average rent and still struggling, as is Edmonton, so I have a hard time seeing any kind of bounce in the near future.

Good thing we're building 9x the amount of currently vacant space, as previously mentioned - if demand is as low as you say, that's up to 41% vacancy.

My apologies. I was referring to recent Chinese establishments that have opened in a likeness or trying replicate entirely an old restaurant in either a close by or exact same location. That’s an uphill climb but they’re doing it. The city should help as other cities have. To date, we have not.

Ya, I already said they aren’t doing well. That’s not news. But they will emerge again. The fundamentals are strong and if you look back in history, the city made inroads before oil took off and on the process took some non oil petroleum head offices with them away from us while we were asleep at the switch. Never mind attracting news business cause they did that much better too. Maybe now that we finally appear to be removing our heads from our asses in the tech sector, maybe at least one of those tech companies that bypassed us the first time to set up shop in Alberta will come this way.

Also, I never said demand was low. I said we don’t have enough supply online. As it pertains to the election, we need to ensure there is enough incentive to keep our supply robust. Other cities have policies in place to do just that. It wouldn’t hurt us to follow that path. But you need cooperation at the municipal level.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

I don’t enjoy it (quite to the contrary actually), but I don’t live in a dream world either where i can ignore the dumbass policies in the city either.

And since it is an election thread, I will wait until they approve something that doesn’t conform to the needless, never ending stream of artificial limits they have dreamed up.

By what metric is Vancouver the best performing office market? (Although am
Encouraged by that 7% vacancy), Are we looking at the whole picture or only looking at one aspect isolation of everything else?

There's still a lot of capacity, and already a whole series of future projects that can deliver more job space both Downtown and in the suburban centres. In Vancouver (as that's this thread's topic) both Mount Pleasant and Railtown are seeing record investment in new buildings - I can list 4.8m sq. ft of new space under construction across the City. Quite a bit of that new development is the result of new zoning introduced in the past two or three years - in Railtown, along W2nd, up Main St and in the False Creek Flats.

Quadreal / Westbank just almost doubled the intended office space at Oakridge. Altogether over 6.7 million sq. ft. of office space has already been approved but not yet started construction, over 5 million sq. ft in the Metro Core. There's another 2.5 million sq. ft. submitted but yet to be approved, and at least 2 million more that are likely to be submitted soon, including the million sq. ft. on The Bay.

Of all the major centres in Canada, Vancouver has the lowest vacancy rate at 7%. It's attracting huge growth in the tech sector from US firms expanding (Microsoft, Apple and Amazon are the obvious businesses), and from home grown and rapidly growing startups (in biomedical, digital entertainment and broader tech sectors).

25% of all new office space in Canadian cities under construction is in Vancouver, although our existing space only represents 10.3% of all the office space in Canadian cities. Much of the space is already pre-leased, and most of it is in the city of Vancouver. So we're developing way above our existing share of the national office market. And last year over 25% of new office space completed in Canada was in Vancouver.

Most impressively, Vancouver saw over a million sq. ft. of additional occupied office space in the past 12 months. The next highest number was Ottawa, that had +184,000 of occupied space, and Halifax had +16,507. Every other city saw less occupied space. Calgary had 2.44m sq. ft. of additional empty space, Montreal -1.47m sq. ft.; even Toronto saw -1.76m sq. ft. absorption.

Those all seem to be measures of the strongest market in Canada for office space at the present time.

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by Changing City

There's still a lot of capacity, and already a whole series of future projects that can deliver more job space both Downtown and in the suburban centres. In Vancouver (as that's this thread's topic) both Mount Pleasant and Railtown are seeing record investment in new buildings - I can list 4.8m sq. ft of new space under construction across the City. Quite a bit of that new development is the result of new zoning introduced in the past two or three years - in Railtown, along W2nd, up Main St and in the False Creek Flats.

Quadreal / Westbank just almost doubled the intended office space at Oakridge. Altogether over 6.7 million sq. ft. of office space has already been approved but not yet started construction, over 5 million sq. ft in the Metro Core. There's another 2.5 million sq. ft. submitted but yet to be approved, and at least 2 million more that are likely to be submitted soon, including the million sq. ft. on The Bay.

Of all the major centres in Canada, Vancouver has the lowest vacancy rate at 7%. It's attracting huge growth in the tech sector from US firms expanding (Microsoft, Apple and Amazon are the obvious businesses), and from home grown and rapidly growing startups (in biomedical, digital entertainment and broader tech sectors).

25% of all new office space in Canadian cities under construction is in Vancouver, although our existing space only represents 10.3% of all the office space in Canadian cities. Much of the space is already pre-leased, and most of it is in the city of Vancouver. So we're developing way above our existing share of the national office market. And last year over 25% of new office space completed in Canada was in Vancouver.

Most impressively, Vancouver saw over a million sq. ft. of additional occupied office space in the past 12 months. The next highest number was Ottawa, that had +184,000 of occupied space, and Halifax had +16,507. Every other city saw less occupied space. Calgary had 2.44m sq. ft. of additional empty space, Montreal -1.47m sq. ft.; even Toronto saw -1.76m sq. ft. absorption.

Those all seem to be measures of the strongest market in Canada for office space at the present time.

What office space is being built in Railtown?

They need to get more space online that ISNT pre-leased.
But we’ll see what will happen with the Bay proposal. The city desperately needs more sources of larger floor plates when it comes to office space and their first forays into that configuration has been successful.
The only reason we’re developing more than our share of space is because we underdeveloped for so many years. We should have a much higher share to begin with.

And Toronto is developing almost most 40% of the new office space in Canada. They have 20 million waiting to come online and there vacancy rate is just under 10%. That’s better than us here. One singular building being built in Toronto has over a million square feet. That could absorb almost all of our total construction. So I can’t see how we’re stronger than them.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

What office space is being built in Railtown?

They need to get more space online that ISNT pre-leased.
But we’ll see what will happen with the Bay proposal. The city desperately needs more sources of larger floor plates when it comes to office space and their first forays into that configuration has been successful.
The only reason we’re developing more than our share of space is because we underdeveloped for so many years. We should have a much higher share to begin with.

And Toronto is developing almost most 40% of the new office space in Canada. They have 20 million waiting to come online and there vacancy rate is just under 10%. That’s better than us here. One singular building being built in Toronto has over a million square feet. That could absorb almost all of our total construction. So I can’t see how we’re stronger than them.

You're still trying to pick holes in a generally positive story because, for some reason, it doesn't fit your narrative. Of course Toronto has more space being built than Vancouver - it's a much bigger market, as we all know. The 8 million sq. ft. being built there is a smaller proportion of the total market than the 3.7m being built here. And their absorption in the past year was negative, ours was positive.

If the market has underdelivered office space in the past it isn't the fault of City Council, unless they've been refusing developments of office space, which they haven't. Rather, they've increased the permitted floorspace for office in several areas and approved high-density office buildings across the CBD and beyond. If we have an office problem, it is the apparent reluctance of developers to build the promised office space in the suburban centres, where it would really improve those economies and the stress on the transit system. Almost all the development is downtown, or in the rest of the Metro Core (notably False Creek Flats and Mount Pleasant at the moment).

In Railtown the buildings are, like Mount Pleasant, hybrid industrial and office. The zoning was changed to encourage a higher office content, and that generated development activity. Bench was recently completed. 405 Railway is nearing completion. 505 Railway and 450 Railway have been approved, and there is site clearance for 450. 365 Railway has just been submitted.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

By what metric is Vancouver the best performing office market? (Although am
Encouraged by that 7% vacancy), Are we looking at the whole picture or only looking at one aspect isolation of everything else?

By what metric isn't Vancouver doing extremely well in the office market? You're given number after number showing how much space is coming online, in the pipeline, and leased today.

For a guy that talks about "indisputable facts" you don't present any of your own to back up your case, and you keep moving the goal posts when presented with data.

[cov]

still wondering what business taxes @EastvanMark is talking about.

But I'm glad he is speaking up against the cityhall's view cone policies that handicapped Vancouver's downtown office space. I agree with him that cityhall should rezone land more expediently with better height allocations though. The view cone significantly limits every single prime commercial lot in Vancouver. I think he has a point there.

[Migrant_Coconut]

What the viewcones limit is the prettiness of the skyline, which sucks, but does almost nothing for or against capacity; 47k square feet more or less (e.g. Jenga tower) isn't going to change jack squat, especially when compared to just adding 350k next door.

Originally Posted by EastVanMark

My apologies. I was referring to recent Chinese establishments that have opened in a likeness or trying replicate entirely an old restaurant in either a close by or exact same location. That’s an uphill climb but they’re doing it. The city should help as other cities have. To date, we have not.

Ya, I already said they aren’t doing well. That’s not news. But they will emerge again. The fundamentals are strong and if you look back in history, the city made inroads before oil took off and on the process took some non oil petroleum head offices with them away from us while we were asleep at the switch. Never mind attracting news business cause they did that much better too. Maybe now that we finally appear to be removing our heads from our asses in the tech sector, maybe at least one of those tech companies that bypassed us the first time to set up shop in Alberta will come this way.

Also, I never said demand was low. I said we don’t have enough supply online. As it pertains to the election, we need to ensure there is enough incentive to keep our supply robust. Other cities have policies in place to do just that. It wouldn’t hurt us to follow that path. But you need cooperation at the municipal level.

Any examples? Not trying to start anything, but I'm seeing that even the new Chinese places are significantly more yuppie-oriented than their predecessors. Old Chinatown just doesn't work anymore.

Like I said, the low vacancy rate would indicate that they're very much coming this way and waiting in line. Just need to keep building.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by cov

how so? what have I said to make you think this? I was just having a conversation with @eastvanmark who seems very knowledgeable about successful city policies, and have business connections and experience to SF, a city that I also am quite fond of.

Oh I see.

I couldn't quite narrow your intentions through the intensely thick sarcasm you have been using over the last few pages.

My bad.

[cov]

Originally Posted by rofina

Oh I see.

I couldn't quite narrow your intentions through the intensely thick sarcasm you have been using over the last few pages.

My bad.

Not at all. I think @eastvanmark's criticisms on the slow rezoning process, and anti-business practices like the view cone constraining downtown office space growth are spot on. I wish I knew more about the Vancouver business tax. Since I don't own a business or anything, I just feel like it's much better to listen to somebody who does.

While Calgary isn't my favorite city per se, @eastvanmark's observation of Calgary's liberal commercial zoning practices has merit. I've long felt the detached family zones just 10 minutes from downtown is unnecessarily choking the office market. I too would love to see everything north of king Edwards significantly upzoned to accommodate more commercial space and consumer pool.

[Sheba]

I debated posted this in the Broadway Plan thread - Broader than Broadway: Corridor plan sets tone for city's direction

The plan for almost 500 city blocks along and around Broadway is entering its final stretch, as city hall looks to steer the future of the area as Vancouver’s “second downtown.”

The Broadway plan focuses on an 8.6-square-kilometre area, but observers and decision-makers say it will have implications for the direction of the city and broader region for generations to come.

...

Council is to vote on the plan’s final version in May, and just one month later is expected to face an even bigger city-building decision: a Vancouver-wide plan. The Broadway plan decision could set the direction of the citywide vision, observers say, and these two votes will be among the most-watched of council’s four-year term, which ends with the October election.

Postmedia News asked five mayoral hopefuls for their views on whether the Broadway plan puts Vancouver on the right track for the future. Four candidates were supportive of the plan, to varying degrees and with different concerns, while one expressed serious hesitations.

...

Four of five leading mayoral candidates support the Broadway plan’s direction: independent Mayor Kennedy Stewart, who is running for re-election, Non-Partisan Association candidate John Coupar, Progress Vancouver’s expected nominee Mark Marissen, and A Better City’s Ken Sim.

But Coun. Colleen Hardwick, who is seeking the nomination of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver, is critical of the plan and the subway project in general.

...

Mike Harcourt, a former Vancouver mayor and former B.C. premier, likes the plan’s general direction, but isn’t sure about some of the proposed building heights and densities.

“But change is coming,” Harcourt says, and Vancouver needs a plan for this vital corridor.

“Either you look in the rear-view mirror, or you look out the windshield,” Harcourt said. “I think people have to look out 30 years ahead, rather than nostalgia for what’s there now or in the past.”

[Migrant_Coconut]

Whatever happens this election, we should all celebrate not seeing Hardwick in the news again for at least another four years.

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Whatever happens this election, we should all celebrate not seeing Hardwick in the news again for at least another four years.

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by Changing City

You're still trying to pick holes in a generally positive story because, for some reason, it doesn't fit your narrative. Of course Toronto has more space being built than Vancouver - it's a much bigger market, as we all know. The 8 million sq. ft. being built there is a smaller proportion of the total market than the 3.7m being built here. And their absorption in the past year was negative, ours was positive.

If the market has underdelivered office space in the past it isn't the fault of City Council, unless they've been refusing developments of office space, which they haven't. Rather, they've increased the permitted floorspace for office in several areas and approved high-density office buildings across the CBD and beyond. If we have an office problem, it is the apparent reluctance of developers to build the promised office space in the suburban centres, where it would really improve those economies and the stress on the transit system. Almost all the development is downtown, or in the rest of the Metro Core (notably False Creek Flats and Mount Pleasant at the moment).

In Railtown the buildings are, like Mount Pleasant, hybrid industrial and office. The zoning was changed to encourage a higher office content, and that generated development activity. Bench was recently completed. 405 Railway is nearing completion. 505 Railway and 450 Railway have been approved, and there is site clearance for 450. 365 Railway has just been submitted.

Not trying to pick holes, and it is a generally positive, but no it doesn't fit the narrative of the truth, so it's worth pointing out. Again, careful pointing out proportions because things might not be favorable if you apply them across the board. Our proportion is higher because we have such a small supply to begin with so its looks better than it actually is. So in other words we gain because we have been so feeble in developing office space. And since we're so enamoured with proportions, Toronto has well over 20 million sq feet of space in the pipeline, so proportionally we should have about 10 million in the pipeline, but according to your own figures, we do not. Already dealt with absorption rates because again we are far less ambitious in building space so our absorption rate has lead the country for a while now, and as I already pointed out, thats not a good thing.

No its their fault. Their policies force developers to build certain types of buildings. If you took away all of the overregulation and silly policies, you would see more out of office developments. As you point out, they have loosened things up a bit, and voila, as if by pure magical coincidence, we now see different types of office space being developed here.

Glad to see those developments in Railtown. Thanks for posting. However, the vast majority (if not all) are really tiny. All of those combined barely equal one substantial office building (even by Vancouver standards).

[EastVanMark]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

By what metric isn't Vancouver doing extremely well in the office market? You're given number after number showing how much space is coming online, in the pipeline, and leased today.

For a guy that talks about "indisputable facts" you don't present any of your own to back up your case, and you keep moving the goal posts when presented with data.

Its doing alright. Not extremely well. The statement was made that Vancouver is the strongest office market in the country. That statement is false. The figures provided actually show that. Don't know what else to do about that.