SAN DIEGO | Boom Rundown, Vol. 2

[eburress]

Originally Posted by YourBuddy

People are far more likely to leave for cheaper housing prices than income taxes. Funny enough they end up paying some of the highest property tax rates in the country.

Trust me, you still come out WAY ahead. lol

[IrvineNative]

Originally Posted by YourBuddy

People are far more likely to leave for cheaper housing prices than income taxes. Funny enough they end up paying some of the highest property tax rates in the country.

Or maybe job opportunities on top of cheaper housing?

Detroit and Cleveland have cheap housing but anemic growth because the economy isn't good.

"But that's different! People are going to move out because of the cold weather!"

New Orleans metro has good weather but it isn't growing terribly fast either, because the economy there isn't good.

"Yeah, New Orleans has good weather until it floods, so it's the floods scaring people away!"

Greater Houston flooded during Harvey, and it's still growing fast. It so happens that Greater Houston has a stronger economy than NOLA or the Rust Belt.

So yes, corporate growth matters. Even if San Diego became super YIMBY from now on, the business unfriendly policies of California would continue to drive businesses away from the state.

And the latest in taxation: SANDAG proposes charging builders more to build in sprawly suburbs than in the urban core.

I mean SANDAG has some great ideas for transit (the airport APM) but this is not one of them. This will only add to the cost of housing. Families with kids won't choose a Downtown apartment instead of a suburban SFH, because Downtown (and Mission Valley) have poor public schools. They're going to pack up and move to the suburbs of Dallas where they'll contribute to even more suburban sprawl.

That's why I believe improving inner city education and quality of life to attract families is one of the biggest tools in our arsenal to fight sprawl. Lots of families would love to not have to drive everywhere and upkeep a gigantic SFH. Problem is dense urban areas in the US are overwhelmingly filled with failing schools, high crime, and/or homelessness. So families see no choice but to live in the burbs.

[roletand]

Hot off the press!

San Diego Padres offer $35M for Tailgate Park, planning $1.5B residential project
BY JENNIFER VAN GROVE
MARCH 3, 2022 2:29 PM PT
The San Diego Union-Tribune

The city and the development team, which are in agreement on sale and development terms, are now racing to close escrow by the end of the year.

After 14 months of negotiating, the city of San Diego and a development team led by the Padres have reached a deal on sale terms for a four-block, East Village parking lot known as Tailgate Park where the Major League Baseball club and its partners now want to build 1,800 apartments.

Wednesday, San Diego’s Economic Development & Intergovernmental Relations Committee will consider sending the deal to the full council for approval in April. The city and Padres are racing against the clock — because of state disposition laws, the transaction must close escrow by Dec. 23 or it will be aborted altogether.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus...e-park-planning-1-5b-residential-project

[YourBuddy]

Originally Posted by eburress

Trust me, you still come out WAY ahead. lol

Wouldn’t for me, but I wouldn’t be significantly downgrading my quality of home just to live in Texas to avoid income taxes on my salary.

[YourBuddy]

Originally Posted by IrvineNative

Or maybe job opportunities on top of cheaper housing?

Detroit and Cleveland have cheap housing but anemic growth because the economy isn't good.

"But that's different! People are going to move out because of the cold weather!"

New Orleans metro has good weather but it isn't growing terribly fast either, because the economy there isn't good.

"Yeah, New Orleans has good weather until it floods, so it's the floods scaring people away!"

Greater Houston flooded during Harvey, and it's still growing fast. It so happens that Greater Houston has a stronger economy than NOLA or the Rust Belt.

So yes, corporate growth matters. Even if San Diego became super YIMBY from now on, the business unfriendly policies of California would continue to drive businesses away from the state.

And the latest in taxation: SANDAG proposes charging builders more to build in sprawly suburbs than in the urban core.

I mean SANDAG has some great ideas for transit (the airport APM) but this is not one of them. This will only add to the cost of housing. Families with kids won't choose a Downtown apartment instead of a suburban SFH, because Downtown (and Mission Valley) have poor public schools. They're going to pack up and move to the suburbs of Dallas where they'll contribute to even more suburban sprawl.

That's why I believe improving inner city education and quality of life to attract families is one of the biggest tools in our arsenal to fight sprawl. Lots of families would love to not have to drive everywhere and upkeep a gigantic SFH. Problem is dense urban areas in the US are overwhelmingly filled with failing schools, high crime, and/or homelessness. So families see no choice but to live in the burbs.

The significant majority of people will say cost of living and cheaper housing is the number 1 reason they move, followed by a job.

Most families don’t live in downtowns around the country is some combination of space and schools. It’s hard to afford space in downtowns, and for decades we have subsidized highways and the growth of those suburbs with more space. Personally I would stop subsidizing that type of growth and put that money towards schools and affordable housing.

[IrvineNative]

Originally Posted by roletand

Hot off the press!

San Diego Padres offer $35M for Tailgate Park, planning $1.5B residential project
BY JENNIFER VAN GROVE
MARCH 3, 2022 2:29 PM PT
The San Diego Union-Tribune



https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus...e-park-planning-1-5b-residential-project

If we want TOD, how much will more condos and apartments contribute to transit ridership?

I have a hunch that all these new condo/apartment towers are filled with a lot more remote workers and rich retirees than in your average neighborhood. Am I right? Because remote workers and retirees tend not to take many trips and therefore don't contribute to ridership.

[Streamliner]

Originally Posted by IrvineNative

If we want TOD, how much will more condos and apartments contribute to transit ridership?

I have a hunch that all these new condo/apartment towers are filled with a lot more remote workers and rich retirees than in your average neighborhood. Am I right? Because remote workers and retirees tend not to take many trips and therefore don't contribute to ridership.

Some text/pics from the article below. For what it's worth, it calls out the reasoning for the office-to-housing change:

Padres development team offers $35M for Tailgate Park, plans $1.5B residential project
March 3, 2022
Jennifer Van Grove

The latest iteration of the project, called East Village Quarter, differs greatly from the original vision. Instead of an office campus, the $1.5 billion project centers around 1,800 residential units spread across three residential towers — between 350 feet and 500 feet in height — with 1,620 underground parking spaces.
On the northwest block, which was deemed unbuildable in the seismic analysis, East Village Quarter now calls for a privately owned public park, to be paid for and operated by the developers, that will be designed in a future process. On the southeast block, the group is planning a 1,200-space parking garage to replace the existing surface spaces and accommodate baseball fans.
The project is tied together by 50,000 square feet of storefronts along a street that bisects the site and leads toward Petco Park.

“The pandemic really threw us a curveball in the sense that the work-from-home and hybrid work environments that were put in place ... have abated some of the demand for office,” said Paul DeMartini, who is an executive with New York-based real estate developer Tishman Speyer. “We thought that, based on the city’s housing needs and based on the demand that we were seeing for housing in the market, that it was more appropriate to meet that market demand to get this project into production and make it a reality sooner.”

[IrvineNative]

Originally Posted by Streamliner

Some text/pics from the article below. For what it's worth, it calls out the reasoning for the office-to-housing change:

Padres development team offers $35M for Tailgate Park, plans $1.5B residential project
March 3, 2022
Jennifer Van Grove

Aha, so yes, Tailgate Park is not going to be very successful TOD because if you live in a high end condo you'll probably be teleworking, not commuting.

I know post-COVID, teleworking is big.

But look at Austin. It's still getting a ton of office skyscrapers. Maybe not as much as it would if COVID never happened, but still a lot.

Which shows that if San Diego wants more office TOD, it's going to need to economically diversify beyond tourism and bring big corps who will demand big campuses near transit. Turns out NIMBYs may be bad but the biggest barrier to office TOD isn't NIMBYs, it's California's businesses hostile policies that curb office demand. Little office demand means developers build less office. Simple.

[Northparkwizard]

Originally Posted by IrvineNative

Aha, so yes, Tailgate Park is not going to be very successful TOD because if you live in a high end condo you'll probably be teleworking, not commuting.

I know post-COVID, teleworking is big.

But look at Austin. It's still getting a ton of office skyscrapers. Maybe not as much as it would if COVID never happened, but still a lot.

Which shows that if San Diego wants more office TOD, it's going to need to economically diversify beyond tourism and bring big corps who will demand big campuses near transit. Turns out NIMBYs may be bad but the biggest barrier to office TOD isn't NIMBYs, it's California's businesses hostile policies that curb office demand. Little office demand means developers build less office. Simple.

Welcome to the SD forum, San Diego isn't Irvine or Austin.

Thank goodness.

[JSW]

Originally Posted by IrvineNative

Aha, so yes, Tailgate Park is not going to be very successful TOD because if you live in a high end condo you'll probably be teleworking, not commuting.

I know post-COVID, teleworking is big.

But look at Austin. It's still getting a ton of office skyscrapers. Maybe not as much as it would if COVID never happened, but still a lot.

Which shows that if San Diego wants more office TOD, it's going to need to economically diversify beyond tourism and bring big corps who will demand big campuses near transit. Turns out NIMBYs may be bad but the biggest barrier to office TOD isn't NIMBYs, it's California's businesses hostile policies that curb office demand. Little office demand means developers build less office. Simple.

OK... we GET IT. You can stop parroting the CA hostile policies thing. We heard you. No one wants to get into a political debate on here.

[HurricaneHugo]

As far as office/residential goes, I go with the option that brings down the cost of housing.

More condos, increases supply, lowers prices.

Right?

[Andy-4-SD]

Originally Posted by HurricaneHugo

As far as office/residential goes, I go with the option that brings down the cost of housing.

More condos, increases supply, lowers prices.

Right?

Bravo

[Nerv]

Originally Posted by HurricaneHugo

As far as office/residential goes, I go with the option that brings down the cost of housing.

More condos, increases supply, lowers prices.

Right?

Not trying to sound negative but although building more housing will ease some of the demand I’d say the ship has sailed long ago for affordability in San Diego. You’d have to go back several decades for affordability in this city. We are heading into San Francisco market pricing with the makeup of the city changing with the pricing and times. There’s only so much land on or close to ocean and we are sitting on prime real estate here without all the headaches that some of our neighbors up north face…

[SamFlood]

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by Nerv

Not trying to sound negative but although building more housing will ease some of the demand I’d say the ship has sailed long ago for affordability in San Diego. You’d have to go back several decades for affordability in this city. We are heading into San Francisco market pricing with the makeup of the city changing with the pricing and times. There’s only so much land on or close to ocean and we are sitting on prime real estate here without all the headaches that some of our neighbors up north face…

If you use the home sale price to income ratio, we're the least affordable metro in the nation, passing up San Francisco this year, with the highest utility rates too.

Average income is $68,000. Median home price January $764,000.

[IrvineNative]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

If you use the home sale price to income ratio, we're the least affordable metro in the nation, passing up San Francisco this year, with the highest utility rates too.

Average income is $68,000. Median home price January $764,000.

Why are incomes in SD so low? Is it just because SD is very tourism dependent? What about tech jobs, are you paid less in SD vs in LA?

[SDCAL]

Is 7th/Market (Ritz Carlton hotel project) dead?

I can’t believe that prime site is STILL a surface parking lot.

At what point can new plans be worked on? This is turning into another Manchester disaster. That prime bay front land rotted for years and years while Manchester sat on it with his lofty plans, then when he finally started his big development he couldn’t even finish it.

[IrvineNative]

Originally Posted by SDCAL

Is 7th/Market (Ritz Carlton hotel project) dead?

I can’t believe that prime site is STILL a surface parking lot.

At what point can new plans be worked on? This is turning into another Manchester disaster. That prime bay front land rotted for years and years while Manchester sat on it with his lofty plans, then when he finally started his big development he couldn’t even finish it.

"It must be NIMBYs!" JK. It's probably market forces. I really wonder if the hotel market is oversaturated with the new Seaport Village and Gaylord Pacific resorts, and that might turn 7th and Market into more residential.

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by SDCAL

Is 7th/Market (Ritz Carlton hotel project) dead?

I can’t believe that prime site is STILL a surface parking lot.

At what point can new plans be worked on? This is turning into another Manchester disaster. That prime bay front land rotted for years and years while Manchester sat on it with his lofty plans, then when he finally started his big development he couldn’t even finish it.

I have always thought that that's a strange place to have a luxurious brand like the Ritz Carlton.
Waterfront - nope.
Gaslamp - nope.
Fronting a large city park - nope.
Near the convention center - nope.
Near the core of office towers and courts - nope.
Busy, street with busses - yep.
Homeless, street people presence - yep.

I would scrap the Ritz and replace it with something that will work right away. A mixed use, apartments, maybe a smaller boutique hotel with ground floor retail.

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by IrvineNative

Why are incomes in SD so low? Is it just because SD is very tourism dependent? What about tech jobs, are you paid less in SD vs in LA?

I think even our hospitality and tourism jobs pay less hourly here than in LA and SF because we have a large pool of laborers that can commute in from Mexico. The first trolley line was built to shuttle in those workers from the border to downtown. The close proximity to Mexico drags our median incomes down compared to other California cities.