Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

Cute.

Canmore, Alberta

Average Sale Price

Detached Homes 2,033,000.00

Townhomes 1,040,400.00

Duplexes 1,484,000.00

Apartments 658,500.00

I wonder what the stats for Whistler are?

[casper]

Originally Posted by Denscity

I wonder what the stats for Whistler are?

Perhaps we are at point where we need to built another Whistler.

My dad immigrated to Canada in the 1950s and worked for BC Rail. During the 50s and 60s he regularly in and out of Whistler. He remembers it as a lag stop with a few homes and not much of anything. So in under 60 years it went from nothing to the destination it is today. There are lots of other potential sites in that mountain range for Whistler #2.

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by Denscity

I wonder what the stats for Whistler are?

Currently the average transaction value of a single-family home is $4,139,555 (median of $3,300,000);

townhouses are averaging $1,586,389 (median of $1,303,000

condominiums are averaging a sales value of $852,699 (median of $770,000)

https://www.realestateinwhistler.com/about/market-report/

[SignalHillHiker]

A friend is selling her recently-deceased partner's half-finished flip. It's already good enough to live in, and the only room that's barely finished is the kitchen. $90K Insane. Only other house for sale on that street is $210K.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

A friend is selling her recently-deceased partner's half-finished flip. It's already good enough to live in, and the only room that's barely finished is the kitchen. $90K Insane. Only other house for sale on that street is $210K.

How can it be this cheap? I'm tempted to buy it and sit on it.

[lio45]

That's an acceptable deal, but I've seen better.

How much would it rent for, if finished?

Now, yes, if you held a gun to my head and forced me to invest in real estate in Anglo-Canada, this would likely be among the least bad (i.e. least unjustifiable, from an operating ROI POV) investments available out there.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by rofina

How can it be this cheap? I'm tempted to buy it and sit on it.

It's one of those unofficial "for offers above" situations. Showings don't begin until tomorrow and no offers will be opened until Friday. Basically the opposite of what my realtor did for me (bully offer, expiring end of business the first day it was listed; no one else even got to see the house). I expect it'll be a cash offer with no home inspection that takes it.

Lio, depends how you rent it. If you're just renting out the whole house, there's one on the street now that's $1,400 POU. If you operated it as a bedsit or halfway house, you could probably get closer to $1,800.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

It's one of those unofficial "for offers above" situations. Showings don't begin until tomorrow and no offers will be opened until Friday. Basically the opposite of what my realtor did for me (bully offer, expiring end of business the first day it was listed; no one else even got to see the house). I expect it'll be a cash offer with no home inspection that takes it.

Lio, depends how you rent it. If you're just renting out the whole house, there's one on the street now that's $1,400 POU. If you operated it as a bedsit or halfway house, you could probably get closer to $1,800.

Thats madness. Assuming $30,000 to finish up renos with low cost materials, this would be something like 12% cap rate. That's 4X the cap rate I would expect in BC.

[lio45]

And that's my point. 12% cap rate sucks, but at gunpoint, I'd most definitely take that over Vancouver-style sub-interest-rates cap rates.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by lio45

And that's my point. 12% cap rate sucks, but at gunpoint, I'd most definitely take that over Vancouver-style sub-interest-rates cap rates.

Hold the phone.

12% cap rate sucks? In Canada, today?

[casper]

Originally Posted by rofina

Hold the phone.

12% cap rate sucks? In Canada, today?

I think your confusing Canada with Toronto & Vancouver.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by casper

I think your confusing Canada with Toronto & Vancouver.

BC. You're not finding double digits in BC, no way. Toronto, same. And fair, I cant speak for anywhere else. But double digit cap rates anywhere else, really? A place that folks actually live?

[suburbanite]

I don't know Quebec, but I'd love to know where Lio is getting 12%. That's $4k/month NOI on a $400,000 unit.

I have a 20% interest in a 3-unit place with my dad in rural Ontario. Town of 4,000 people 45 minutes away from Toronto. Going-in cap rate was about 8%, but sub-2% interest rates, high cost of living pushing people out of Toronto, and Covid leading people to seek more space has pushed that down to probably 3.5% now. Hopefully sell it before June and the next few interest rate hikes.

[Coldrsx]

Canmore continues to go nuts and is in serious need of supply, but the type of supply continues to be visitor accommodation and less for actual residents thereby exacerbating a lot of the issues.

---
Month over month, active standing inventory is up to 89 properties listed between Harvie Heights and Exshaw. There are 50 residential properties and 39 short term rental properties listed; last March, there were 113 residential properties listed. With the decline of active standing inventory, multiple offers and sales over asking are the norm. In February detached and semi-detached homes sold on average 5.2% over asking price and the average days on market fell to 20 days. Detached and semi-detached home sales fell year over year by 75% as a direct result of the 70% year over year decline in active listings. Year over year, the three month average sale price for townhouses has increased 33% to $954,000. Apartment condominium properties three month average sale price increased 13% year over year to $663,334. Tourist home and visitor accommodation units that have a short term rental use, prices have increased 49% on the three month average to $665,932. Detached and semi-detached median home price increased to 35% to $1,411,500 over the past three months.

https://www.canmorebanffrealestate.com/b...e&utm_medium=email&utm_source=activepipe

[urbandreamer]

I hate these Home Depot-style renovations. Why are we turning quality Victorian era craftsmanship into insta garbage using the cheapest factory made foreign materials? That house isn't even worth $50k.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I hate these Home Depot-style renovations. Why are we turning quality Victorian era craftsmanship into insta garbage using the cheapest factory made foreign materials? That house isn't even worth $50k.

Are you referring to the St John’s row? The pictures are more shack than quality Victorian, istm.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I hate these Home Depot-style renovations. Why are we turning quality Victorian era craftsmanship into insta garbage using the cheapest factory made foreign materials? That house isn't even worth $50k.

I hate that as well - luckily it really only happens to these working class ones, and often times it genuinely is an improvement, just cheaply done. My house is very similar, but it was done well - same new hardwood on both floors, crown moulding throughout. Bare minimum, I know, but that's enough for these types of houses.

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Are you referring to the St John’s row? The pictures are more shack than quality Victorian, istm.

I understand the point, but diving deeper into this just for fun:

You've got a 50-50 shot of being literally correct. This particular area is directly adjacent to the former Central Slum and certainly would've been considered part of it until the rest was cleared. Surviving slum houses basically all have this type of roof (I don't know the term, but it's not flat and not Mansard):



If it has that roof, the home is almost certainly one of the emergency ones hastily erected after the Great Fire of 1892. If it doesn't, there's a chance the attic floor was just removed (that happened lots), or it could be newer, post-Victorian construction (typically from 1918-49).

The freakishly high ceilings in that one for sale for $90K suggests to me it's from WWII era. That was one of the wealthiest times in our history and the only way someone building in this type of neighbourhood could've afforded that type of ceiling height.

A few pics from FB just to explain.

Central Slum prior to clearing:



Central Slum during clearing:



Surviving parts of the Central Slum fixed up (this street is the main drag through my neighbourhood and looks basically identical today):



And a non-slum but still working class block from the same period:

[SignalHillHiker]

B'ys, I'm done. So friggin' excited. I moved in at the beginning of October, and I've finally finished the entire house. Last night I finally got the bulky, ugly chair I wanted for the reading area in the office so that's every room, done. I mean, I'm sure I'll change a few more thermostats and faucets and whatever but that's it! Hopefully doesn't read too tacky to people not in downtown St. John's, , because it fits well here and I NEED it colourful. New Yorker owned the house before me and put everything matte white. Must've cost as much as the house, that paint is expensive.

A few before/afters now that it's finished...

So, I think I've managed to do this for a little over $5K by thrifting, buying Wayfair "Open Box" returns, etc. To be honest, I think the most expensive thing was new doorknobs throughout and new hinges for the kitchen lol

The entry/hallway before:



After:





The living room before:







The living room after:









The kitchen before:





The kitchen after:







The upstairs hallway/bathroom before:







Upstairs hallway/bathroom after:











Bedroom before:





Bedroom after:







And, finally, office before (this is the last room, it's just a two-up, two-down):





And after, I'm DONE!

[north 42]

^ Looks amazing Signal!

[Harrison]

Love the colour and mid-century furniture in your place!