Gas Prices

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by logan5

Just watched the gas station across the street change the price to 185.9. We will easily surpass the 2.00 mark.

Demand will probably drop quite a bit though so it will be interesting to watch.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Demand will probably drop quite a bit though so it will be interesting to watch.

Yes, perhaps it will give a bit of a boost to Translink's ridership.

[WarrenC12]

Too bad there's still a long wait for EVs. The wait might get even longer.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Too bad there's still a long wait for EVs. The wait might get even longer.

Not just EV's. My dealership said they had a 12 month wait for some gas models.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Yes, perhaps it will give a bit of a boost to Translink's ridership.

I guess if it wasn't Covid it would. Translink will also take a hit on less fuel taxes if people use less gasoline.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

I guess if it wasn't Covid it would. Translink will also take a hit on less fuel taxes if people use less gasoline.

If I had to guess, demand for gas is price inelastic in the short term. For example, if the price goes from 1.50 to 2 (an increase of 33%), will a third of vehicle kilometers disappear? People who must drive for work won't be able to stop doing so, and a number of consumers are not sensitive to price changes or will allocate funds from another budget line. In the long-run, high prices would eventually motivate a behavioral shift such as buying an EV or ditching the truck for a sedan, allocating more of your budget to fuel costs, or living near a transit stop/your place of employment and taking transit/walking. If anything, the gas tax revenues will increase in the short term. Build the UBC and North Shore subways while the getting is good!!!

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

If I had to guess, demand for gas is price inelastic in the short term. For example, if the price goes from 1.50 to 2 (an increase of 33%), will a third of vehicle kilometers disappear? People who must drive for work won't be able to stop doing so, and a number of consumers are not sensitive to price changes or will allocate funds from another budget line. In the long-run, high prices would eventually motivate a behavioral shift such as buying an EV or ditching the truck for a sedan, allocating more of your budget to fuel costs, or living near a transit stop/your place of employment and taking transit/walking. If anything, the gas tax revenues will increase in the short term. Build the UBC and North Shore subways while the getting is good!!!

But Translink's cut is a fixed rate so it won't matter. Seems like they've been forecasting a pretty steady gas tax revenue of $400 million with the rest being covered through fares and other taxes (pre-Covid)

https://sfb.nathanpachal.com/2018/05/translink-reducing-reliance-on-fuel-tax.html

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

If I had to guess, demand for gas is price inelastic in the short term. For example, if the price goes from 1.50 to 2 (an increase of 33%), will a third of vehicle kilometers disappear? People who must drive for work won't be able to stop doing so, and a number of consumers are not sensitive to price changes or will allocate funds from another budget line. In the long-run, high prices would eventually motivate a behavioral shift such as buying an EV or ditching the truck for a sedan, allocating more of your budget to fuel costs, or living near a transit stop/your place of employment and taking transit/walking. If anything, the gas tax revenues will increase in the short term. Build the UBC and North Shore subways while the getting is good!!!

Is it inelastic though, after the WFH experience. Employees could just say give me a raise or let me work from home to cover increased costs.

[madog222]

Heard on the radio it’s expected to jump 10$ Cents overnight.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Is it inelastic though, after the WFH experience. Employees could just say give me a raise or let me work from home to cover increased costs.

Most employees don't have the option of working from home. Construction workers, medical professionals, cooks, etc. all have to work in person. So even if every employee who could WFH did, would that really eliminate a third of kilometers driven?

The inelasticity comes into play because individuals cannot or won't immediately change their consumption habits. If the price of beef rises in the grocery store shoppers can purchase a package of chicken instead. However, if you decide you want to WFH and your employer has said you can't, it may take a while to negotiate with that employer or find a new job. Or maybe you need to exit the workforce, re-train, and enter the workforce again as a white collar worker. Or maybe you need to move closer to your place or work. All of these decisions take time, and in the meantime maybe you cancel your weekend trip to Whistler or Seattle but you still have to drive to and from work five times per week.

[jollyburger]

Up to 193.9 now.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

Up to 193.9 now.

I saw 194.9 in Vancouver for Regular today. Sadly, this will all hit low income earners who depend on a car the most. I wonder if the Feds and the provincial NDP will go ahead with their planned carbon tax increases on April 1. If so, they'll be hammered for it.

[rofina]

This doesn't even take into account the usual summer increase anyway. That puts us over $2 easily.

Good luck with the cost of everything.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I saw 194.9 in Vancouver for Regular today. Sadly, this will all hit low income earners who depend on a car the most. I wonder if the Feds and the provincial NDP will go ahead with their planned carbon tax increases on April 1. If so, they'll be hammered for it.

Again, no election so unless it continues for a year I doubt you will see anyone do anything about it.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I saw 194.9 in Vancouver for Regular today. Sadly, this will all hit low income earners who depend on a car the most. I wonder if the Feds and the provincial NDP will go ahead with their planned carbon tax increases on April 1. If so, they'll be hammered for it.

They've already confirmed the carbon tax will increase on April 1. It's 1c per litre - given what 'market forces' are doing to the price of gas, it's pretty much irrelevant.

[cov]

Sanctions on Russia actually excluded energy products, which is Russia's entire export. High gas prices aren't even because of a shortage, it's just gas companies capitalizing on car-dependent consumers. They are raising prices because you pinned yourself to their whims and now have no choice.

The only real solution is to build denser housing forms serviced by public transit to reduce overall gas consumption.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by cov

Sanctions on Russia actually excluded energy products, which is Russia's entire export.

Even so, Russia is having a hard time getting many energy products out of the country because shipping has been disrupted and shipments have become very difficult to insure.

And European leaders are telling their citizens to conserve fuel as a way to reduce dependency on Russia - that's partly so that they can survive if the taps get turned off but is also reduces the amount of western currency that has to be paid to Russia.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by cov

Sanctions on Russia actually excluded energy products, which is Russia's entire export. High gas prices aren't even because of a shortage, it's just gas companies capitalizing on car-dependent consumers. They are raising prices because you pinned yourself to their whims and now have no choice.

It's also that companies are reluctant to buy Russian Ural oil because ships carrying Russian product could be barred from entering ports in future. So it's a de facto sanction, if not an actual one.

U.S. has not sanctioned Russian oil but traders avoiding it
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/...-oil-traders-are-avoiding-it-2022-03-01/

Russia Oil Shunned Even Without Sanctions, Sparking Supply Panic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/R83VQCT0AFBA01

[scottN]

Current price of oil is ~$110 per barrel. From 2010-2014, the price of oil averaged over $100 per barrel. What were gas prices then? A lot less than $2.00 per liter I think.

[mcminsen]

Dunbar and West 41st Avenue in Vancouver.





March 3 '22, my pic