YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Denscity

So MIA is missing in action. Due to distance?

Yes, pretty much. Yield, to be more exact. It's all about yield. (number of cents earned for each passenger mile flown). And if no one is on YVR-MIA/FLL, it's because of yields. It's not lack of O&D, because that's higher than AUS.

YVR-MIA O&D was over 48,000 in 2018. Add FLL, and it's over 96,000. That's a very healthy O&D.

Considering the number of US hubs you overfly on a potential YVR-MIA, it explains why the non stop is not worth it for AC or US carriers (at least not yet). With O&D numbers like that though, AC might tempt it with the Max one day.

They could tap into the decent MIA-East Asia demand as well.

[Denscity]

And dumb question. Wouldn't a direct flight from Vancouver to Miami increase the O&D numbers further?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Denscity

So MIA is missing in action. Due to distance?

I remember flying YVR-MIA on AC twenty years ago it. It was on an A319 and was weight restricted. Given this was likely all leisure or cruise traffic I can’t imagine it was terribly lucrative based on passengers.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Denscity

And dumb question. Wouldn't a direct flight from Vancouver to Miami increase the O&D numbers further?

Yes. As a rule of thumb, the addition of a non stop always stimulates demand.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Yes. As a rule of thumb, the addition of a non stop always stimulates demand.

Well that would put the O&D over 100000 combined then. Surely there's a right plane for that.

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Well that would put the O&D over 100000 combined then. Surely there's a right plane for that.

Yep and in Western Canada previously WestJet tried Calgary YYC - Miami MIA Winter season in 2013 from their busiest WS hub and it did not work out & they dropped it in 2014. The only 2 Florida routes that currently works out at YYC is to Orlando MCO year round on WS and YYC - Fort Lauderdale FLL (winter seasons) on WS.

Flair Airlines previously tried Edmonton YEG - Miami too in winter season 2018 and it didn't work out either & was dropped in 2019. At YEG is currently to Orlando, Florida that has worked out for Swoop/WestJet.

That's leaves only Air Canada that have not yet tried to do a Vancouver YVR - Miami, Orlando or a Fort Lauderdale routes to Florida to see (if) it works for them?? Vancouver to Orlando works for WestJet as it's resuming (seasonally) this Spring year round, though 1x weekly for Spring/Summer season 2022.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Calfan12

Yep and in Western Canada previously WestJet tried Calgary YYC - Miami MIA Winter season in 2013 from their busiest WS hub and it did not work out & they dropped it in 2014. The only 2 Florida routes that currently works out at YYC is to Orlando MCO year round on WS and YYC - Fort Lauderdale FLL (winter seasons) on WS.

Flair Airlines previously tried Edmonton YEG - Miami too in winter season 2018 and it didn't work out either & was dropped in 2019. At YEG is currently to Orlando, Florida that has worked out for Swoop/WestJet.

That's leaves only Air Canada that have not yet tried to do a Vancouver YVR - Miami, Orlando or a Fort Lauderdale routes to Florida to see (if) it works for them?? Vancouver to Orlando works for WestJet as it's resuming (seasonally) this Spring year round, though 1x weekly for Spring/Summer season 2022.

See my post above.

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

See my post above.

Okay interesting Air Canada has tried to do Vancouver YVR - Miami MIA 20 years ago & didn’t work out either, that’s 3 airlines from Western Canada including WestJet from Calgary- Miami 2013 & Flair Edmonton to Miami 2018 too.

Out of the 3, AC is most likely to give YVR - MIA another go at it eventually.While WestJet YYC - MIA (seasonal) flights might return again at some point.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I remember flying YVR-MIA on AC twenty years ago it. It was on an A319 and was weight restricted. Given this was likely all leisure or cruise traffic I can’t imagine it was terribly lucrative based on passengers.

Yes, back then, there were challenges on operating such a long route. Not today. The Max 8 has considerably more range than a 20-25 year old A319, and should be able to plow the route year round, with no restrictions.

YVR-MIA distance: 2,434 nm
Max 8 range: 3,500 nm

Even the newest A319ceo's should be able to do it with no restrictions.

Those old A319/A320s with much lower MTOW than today's versions (meaning less fuel capacity as well), could barely go beyond 2,800 nm back then. That's tight for MIA-YVR, especially in the winter.

Originally Posted by Denscity

Well that would put the O&D over 100000 combined then. Surely there's a right plane for that.

Most of that demand is cruise traffic related. That demand is pretty much nil at the moment, explaining why no one is bothering with the route. That will change in the coming years, I'm sure.

[nname]

Seems like Flair update summer schedule once again.

From YVR,
YYC 18x weekly
YEG 17x weekly
YYZ 10x weekly
YKF 10x weekly
YUL 7x weekly

For less frequent flights:
5x weekly YOW
4x weekly LAS
3x weekly SFO, BUR, YLW, YWG
2x weekly ANC, YXE, YXS, YQU

No longer in schedule: YMM, YQR

3 planes based in YVR, with one of them pretty much only doing YYC and YEG work. One plane will have pretty much no flight scheduled on Saturday.

YEG base will operate some flights from the following routes:
YVR-YEG (11x weekly)
YVR-YYC (4x weekly)

The following routes are not operating out of YVR base:
YVR-YYZ
YVR-YKF
YVR-YOW

Everything else run out of YVR base.

YVR base will also operate the following routes:
YYC-YQQ
YYC-YYJ
YLW-YYJ

Note: YVR-YYC is currently scheduled for 20x weekly, but 2 of the weekly flight can't fit in the plane schedule - the 3 YVR planes are either enroute to YUL, or departing for YEG and YXS, and no other base's plane is in YVR at the moment. So I'll leave it out for now (maybe the YXS route is being cancelled...)

[Calfan12]

Originally Posted by nname

Seems like Flair update summer schedule once again.

From YVR,
YYC 18x weekly
YEG 17x weekly
YYZ 10x weekly
YKF 10x weekly
YUL 7x weekly

For less frequent flights:
5x weekly YOW
4x weekly LAS
3x weekly SFO, BUR, YLW, YWG
2x weekly ANC, YXE, YXS, YQU

No longer in schedule: YMM, YQR

3 planes based in YVR, with one of them pretty much only doing YYC and YEG work. One plane will have pretty much no flight scheduled on Saturday.

YEG base will operate some flights from the following routes:
YVR-YEG (11x weekly)
YVR-YYC (4x weekly)

The following routes are not operating out of YVR base:
YVR-YYZ
YVR-YKF
YVR-YOW

Everything else run out of YVR base.

YVR base will also operate the following routes:
YYC-YQQ
YYC-YYJ
YLW-YYJ

Note: YVR-YYC is currently scheduled for 20x weekly, but 2 of the weekly flight can't fit in the plane schedule - the 3 YVR planes are either enroute to YUL, or departing for YEG and YXS, and no other base's plane is in YVR at the moment. So I'll leave it out for now (maybe the YXS route is being cancelled...)

Interesting. I'm sure all airlines in Canada are going to update their flights schedules in the Summer 2022 months too and make some small changes to it still. But 1 thing is scheduling extra flights frenqencies is good especially as during (bad weather thunder storms / forest fires delays & cancellations are going to happen). So they will be able to consolidate some of their flights (if) needed!!

[Johnny Aussie]

^^ Thanks for the updates nname - you’ve got quite the system going!

^as for Calfan… I think it goes without saying. Obviously schedules change all the time. Don’t see the need to keep repeating that.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

^^ Thanks for the updates nname - you’ve got quite the system going!

^as for Calfan… I think it goes without saying. Obviously schedules change all the time. Don’t see the need to keep repeating that.

This doesn't have to do with the discussion but do you think AC could launch FCO from YVR? It seems successful from YYC. Although AC probably resumes YVR-CDG first.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by hehehe

This doesn't have to do with the discussion but do you think AC could launch FCO from YVR? It seems successful from YYC. Although AC probably resumes YVR-CDG first.

Vancouver to Rome nonstop? I'd love to see that, but it seems very much a longshot, according to people in the airline business. Nevertheless, it's a great dream!

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by hehehe

This doesn't have to do with the discussion but do you think AC could launch FCO from YVR? It seems successful from YYC. Although AC probably resumes YVR-CDG first.

“Could” is a very vague word. Haha. Of course they could.
Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s on a “looking into list” but CDG is probably higher up the list.
Let’s not forget not that long ago YVR-Europe on AC was a single daily flight to LHR. This summer there will be up to 5 flights a day to LHR, DUB, FRA and ZRH.
However WS hasn’t flown one flight yet so “successful” may appear to be a bit premature. I understand they have increased their frequency already but that doesn’t mean anything until the route is actually flying.
WS also much more dependent on transfer traffic at YYC.

[nname]

Originally Posted by hehehe

This doesn't have to do with the discussion but do you think AC could launch FCO from YVR? It seems successful from YYC. Although AC probably resumes YVR-CDG first.

If judging from flight number alone, AC have no plan to resume YVR-CDG.

From their new numbering system:

800-809 UK/Ireland
810-813 Portugal
814-815 (unused)
816-819 Italy (Venice)
820-825 Spain
826-827 Netherlands
828-829 Denmark
830-831 (unused)
832-833 Belgium
834-835 Germany (Munich)
836-839 (unused)
840-849 Germany (Frankfurt)
850-869 London
870-879 France
880-885 Switzerland
886-887 Austria
888-889 (unused)
890-895 Italy (Rome/Milan)
896-899 Greece

So unless 10xx number is used or AC move the flight around again, I don't think they leave any room for YVR-CDG. I can see 2 more German routes, perhaps to MUC, FRA or a different city. and if they going to add YVR-FCO, it can take the 888-889 number

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

“Could” is a very vague word. Haha. Of course they could.
Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s on a “looking into list” but CDG is probably higher up the list.
Let’s not forget not that long ago YVR-Europe on AC was a single daily flight to LHR. This summer there will be up to 5 flights a day to LHR, DUB, FRA and ZRH.
However WS hasn’t flown one flight yet so “successful” may appear to be a bit premature. I understand they have increased their frequency already but that doesn’t mean anything until the route is actually flying.
WS also much more dependent on transfer traffic at YYC.

Good points. I doubt YVR-FCO would be so lucrative for AC that they'd prioritize it right now.

[Johnny Aussie]

It’s March… well it is here already

YVR’S European network for March - 29 weekly

6 carriers to 6 cities - remember not all that long ago it was just LHR FRA and AMS in the winter…

AC LHR 5x weekly 77L (then daily 77W starting last week of March)

LH FRA 5x weekly 343
LH MUC 3x weekly 359

BA LHR daily 772

KL AMS 3x weekly 333

AF CDG 3x weekly 789

TK IST 3x weekly 789

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It’s March… well it is here already

YVR’S European network for March - 29 weekly

6 carriers to 6 cities - remember not all that long ago it was just LHR FRA and AMS in the winter…

AC LHR 5x weekly 77L (then daily 77W starting last week of March)

LH FRA 5x weekly 343
LH MUC 3x weekly 359

BA LHR daily 772

KL AMS 3x weekly 333

AF CDG 3x weekly 789

TK IST 3x weekly 789

So now that India requires a stop on AC due to Russian airspace being off limits will that cause some of the European route start to become
More popular Again?

[Klazu]

I might have missed it but did Russia close its airspace for Canada or does Air Canada just choose not to fly through there? Eastern Siberia is nowhere near the warzone, so should still be safe. Back home Finnair is starting to feel the impact of being closed out of Russian airspace very soon as their entire strategy has relied on flying through there. Not looking good for them depending on how long the crisis will continue.