The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

Glad to see Saint John cracking 130k and with a 3.5% growth rate since 2016. Surely CBC and co. will find a way to spin this negatively, however

Jones' headline will be something like 'Saint John grows but not as fast as Moncton and Halifax' or something else equally as negative.

[someone123]

I thought this census was an undeniably good news story for Saint John, with nearly 10% growth in the population of the "downtown" as defined by Statistics Canada.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Also if the trends keep going well, we'll easily crack 800k in the entire province by 2026 (the next Census cycle). We added over 25k last time, and we're at 775ish now.

We're almost there now.

It is generally agreed that Statistics Canada's population "estimates" are more accurate than the actual "official" census numbers, and this is due to structural "undercount" for a variety of reasons.

The current Statistics Canada population estimate for NB is 796,587. We should crack 800,000 within a couple of months at most.

The real value of the semi-decadal census figures is that it allows detailed information on population characteristics and distribution, not necessarily population size.

[ChampduLarge]

As a relatively recent transplant from Toronto (though I've spent a lot of time here and my partner is Acadian) this was the first census that I wasn't counted within a Census Metropolitan Area, as I am just outside the border for Moncton. It is an easy walk for me, in two different directions, to the edge of the CMA but I am not in it. I was temporarily in NB, working from home, when the census happened, so I counted myself here. When back in Toronto for just a few weeks to wrap things up there, the enumerator came to the door and I was trying to explain this all and happy that I finally got the long form. Congrats to the Maritimes for their renewed growth. Also interested to see that Drummondville tipped the scales into a CMA, had not expected that. I have a project of documenting CMAs in photography and have been for a few years trying to visit each one, plus any capitals that aren't CMAs. Now I guess I will be driving to Drummondville some day.

[Smevo]

I'll probably dive into this more deeply over the coming week, but for now for CBRM:

Economic Region (Cape Breton Island) - stagnant (+/- 0%, +9)

CA (CBRM) - slight drop (-0.4%, -404)

CSD (CBRM) - slight drop (-0.6%, -591)
IR Eskasoni - increase (+2.9%, +99)
IR Membertou - increase (+8.7%, +88)

PC Sydney - increase (+2.6%, +790)
PC Glace Bay - decrease (-3.9%, -689)
PC Sydney Mines (aka Northside) - decrease (-3.7%, -470)
PC New Waterford - decrease (-9.3%, -693)
PC Eskasoni - increase (+9.5%, +223)
PC Howie Center - decrease (-4.4%, -51)
Current population of all Population Centers combined (within 15-20 minutes of downtown Sydney) 70,632.

I decided to look at the Population Center maps to see why Howie Center appeared to be removed from Sydney UA 2011 to make Sydney PC 2016, only to be added as it's own PC in 2021. Well, the maps are definitely weird. Note the large swath of harbour in Sydney PC in South Bar, the subdivision cut in half in Howie Center PC, none of New Victoria included in New Waterford, among other decisions that appear to be a "coin toss" on the surface. The current maps make me wonder if there's a lack of local knowledge contributing to this, although much of the South Bar - Victoria Mines and Sydney River - Howie Center gaps where there appears to be a continuous population that should be included are larger lot properties (especially longer narrow lots in many of these areas, adding to land area more than population, reducing legal boundary population densities in these areas). The acreages on the Coxheath side have the same effect, though their of a more common acreage style than the narrow lot legacy of the Acadian property system on the island.

[Pugsley]

We moved to Saint Andrews this past fall from Toronto as we saw a surge in home sales and thought we better move now before it becomes unaffordable as a potential longer-term retirement choice. When we arrived, we couldn't believe the buzz of construction and home sales here.

The Statscan numbers show the town grew 14.7%. I wonder how that ranks compared to other towns across the region. We tend to focus on the larger cities on this site. Would be great to understand if some of the smaller communities within the Maritimes are actually more popular!

Look out Moncton, Saint Andrews is coming for ya! LOL

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

We moved to Saint Andrews this past fall from Toronto as we saw a surge in home sales and thought we better move now before it becomes unaffordable as a potential longer-term retirement choice. When we arrived, we couldn't believe the buzz of construction and home sales here.

Great choice! St. Andrews is beautiful. We visit every couple of years (last year we did a getaway weekend at the Algonquin). Lovely town a bit off the beaten path.

Yup, a LOT of towns in NB are benefitting from the "Real Estate Exodus" as well. Another friend of my wife has just sold their self-built homestead in middle-of-nowhere ON for a sum that can easily have them with a paid off house in any city in NB (and most of NS) right now. It's not a bad move, especially if you can work remotely.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Woodstock grew by 6.2%. Very impressive for Carleton County.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Woodstock grew by 6.2%. Very impressive for Carleton County.

Man, what happened in Woodstock? Southern Carleton and 'suburban' Edmundston are the only bright spots in the three valley counties. Surprising to see rural York grow so much too.

[Taeolas]

Woodstock is at the upper edge of the Fredericton growth region, and is boosted by being a transportation hub since the I-95 and TCH meet up there. It's also a major regional centre for the valley in general (Grand Falls services the upper part of the valley, Woodstock services from Perth Andover down basically). So while it isn't putting out doorbuster growth numbers like the southern cities, it's still been slowly growing (borderline stagnant).

My parents still live in Woodstock, and like Freddy, the housing market there is very hot. Realtors are begging people for houses to sell because there is a lot of demand. I was also surprised at how much has built up in behind Carleton Mall/Canadian Tire; there's a few hundred new homes in there that weren't there a few years ago.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Man, what happened in Woodstock?

It's close to Fredericton.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's close to Fredericton.

So is friggin' New Maryland, which somehow shrunk. That must be an undercount right? There's like two new subdivisions under construction you can see in PAOL.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

So is friggin' New Maryland, which somehow shrunk. That must be an undercount right? There's like two new subdivisions under construction you can see in PAOL.

If subdivisions are currently under construction and not open then its occupants won't be counted in the 2021 Census. New Maryland can shrink due to undercount, due to CFB switchover at Gagetown, due to lack of space, due to empty-nesting, or any other reason, really. If housing in Woodstock is cheaper and there's enough of it then it's an easy decision for those who really want to own a home. I'd put more weight on Estimates in this instance - the Census is more useful for the data we don't have yet...household incomes, languages, commuting profiles. Estimates are better for population counts.

[OliverD]

Those new subdivisions in New Maryland are fairly small, and some (though not many) of those houses already existed back in 2016. IIRC the population of New Maryland has been fairly stagnant for forever.

[adamuptownsj]

I was thinking if the imagery is from 2019 than the census should have caught it. I certainly don't think the Census missed a booming New Maryland or anything, it just sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Pugsley]

I've been looking at the StatsCan data and while urban growth, specifically in downtown areas, is growing, I have concerns (or questions) around the type of housing. Having moved from Toronto, the majority of the downtown development there has been condo with only recently growth in rental apartments. In Halifax, there appears to be several condo developments.

However, when I look at Fredericton, Saint John, and Moncton...almost everything is rental - both downtown and in the suburbs. This concerns me.

I'm not sure why, but for some reason the fix to housing shortages in these cities is more and more rental units compared to other urban centres. While it is fixing the short-term housing need and bringing more people into the city, my concern is that it isn't resolving the home ownership affordability problem.

Home ownership has been, and will continue to be one of the major drivers of growth for an individual in terms of net worth and assets. Rentals are more transient meaning that people can decide to leave and are not setting financial roots in the city. With no new construction of affordable condominiums, younger people are not being given the opportunity to buy something affordable and build their personal financial net worth. You might be a single person who buys their first condo, then marries and merges into a larger one, then eventually buys a home to raise a family.

I realize there are still houses being built, but if the population is moving towards more urban living in a downtown, shouldn't there be more opportunities for people to live downtown yet be able to actually own their home? As in, a condo?

Sharing simply because I find it odd how in New Brunswick, the concept of a downtown condo is almost unheard of in the three major cities in terms of NEW development.

Does anyone else find this bizarre?

[OliverD]

At least in Fredericton, the condo market has been quite soft for years. The ones that did get built in the suburbs are all very similar and have been very slow to appreciate, at least until lately. Picked a random unit on Lian Street and here are the sale prices:

2011 $149,777
2013 $148,000
2020 $148,500

The condo conversion of York House downtown, they had to cut prices by six figures to move the units. 1019 Brookside Drive, these apartments were initially marketed as condos and I don't think the sold a single one and they were converted to rentals. Same with the townhouses on Woodstock Road near Orchard Drive. Five of them are still on their own PIDs but none sold and they were converted to rentals. The 10 townhouses on Woodstock by the Tim's, when those were built they took forever to sell, and they never built the second phase.

There have been some townhouses and garden houses that are selling quite well but it seems the market for rentals is just generally stronger.

[Taeolas]

I own a townhouse condo here in Freddy, and things have worked well for over a decade now. But I don't follow the housing scene much here so I have no idea how many condos there actually are. But like all housing lately, the condos have been moving quickly; any unit that hits the market is usually sold almost before the sign goes up.

As for why rentals are more popular; I'd just guess but I suspect it is partly because of Freddy's three main pillars:
* University
* Military
* Government

Having a high University and a high Military population probably puts more pressure on providing rental properties instead of home ownership. Even the Government pillar probably makes rental more popular than buying, as politicians may not want to be tied down to the city when they own out in their riding.

What will be interesting to see is how this changes in the future. With e-Tech steadily becoming Freddy's 4th pillar, that's an industry that is a little less mobile so it should encourage more home ownership. But it may take time for the market to shift and start putting more condos, and quality condos on the market vs more rental units.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

What will be interesting to see is how this changes in the future. With e-Tech steadily becoming Freddy's 4th pillar, that's an industry that is a little less mobile so it should encourage more home ownership. But it may take time for the market to shift and start putting more condos, and quality condos on the market vs more rental units.

True. But I'm not sure if all jobs in Fredericton are that transient. Most employment is currently longer-term and secure government public-service roles and you are correct, the tech growth will add more to this.

I wonder if the developers are simply not taking the risk of building condos or if the developments to date haven't been inspiring enough to fill up? I look at Fundy Quay in Saint John and the new King Street development there. Both are planned to be rental apartments as opposed to condos. In any other city, these would definitely be sold as luxury condos.

If it is a lack of inspiration, I wonder how condos would sell in these three markets if they were truly URBAN developments like the ones you see elsewhere in Canada? Not the garden or townhome condo model, but true podium and tower developments in the downtown core. Buildings that offer all the amenities one expects in a larger city like underground parking, fitness facilities, yoga rooms, retail at street level, party rooms with gourmet kitchens, dog washing stations, a front desk and security, etc.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I own a townhouse condo here in Freddy, and things have worked well for over a decade now. But I don't follow the housing scene much here so I have no idea how many condos there actually are. But like all housing lately, the condos have been moving quickly; any unit that hits the market is usually sold almost before the sign goes up.

As for why rentals are more popular; I'd just guess but I suspect it is partly because of Freddy's three main pillars:
* University
* Military
* Government

Having a high University and a high Military population probably puts more pressure on providing rental properties instead of home ownership. Even the Government pillar probably makes rental more popular than buying, as politicians may not want to be tied down to the city when they own out in their riding.

What will be interesting to see is how this changes in the future. With e-Tech steadily becoming Freddy's 4th pillar, that's an industry that is a little less mobile so it should encourage more home ownership. But it may take time for the market to shift and start putting more condos, and quality condos on the market vs more rental units.

Anecdotal but I was also a condo owner until this past year (sold before I had pictures up). I have always thought there is a bit of hesitancy concerning condos and town houses as the concept is still fairly foreign to many in NB. Condo fees and the limits to what one can do with their property come as a shock to many around here as they have not been exposed to this concept previously.

This is changing quickly however. Would not mind seeing a few condo/retail developments sprinkled in with the plethora of apartments projects. As long as they are not 4 story walk ups (like my condo was).