2021 Census: The NCR re-overtakes Calgary for 4th Largest CMA

[Dominion301]

This isn't surprising. Ottawa has grown substantially in the past five years while Calgary's oil economy has struggled.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...ties-1.6344179

The three other Canadian CMAs with a population over one million in 2021 are: Ottawa–Gatineau at 1,488,307, marking a rise to fourth place again after temporarily losing that title in 2016 to Calgary; Calgary, which now has a population of 1,481,806; and Edmonton, with a population of 1,418,118.

[Dominion301]

In raw numbers here is the change in population for Canada's six CMAs with a population over 1 million:
Toronto: +274,185
Montreal: +192,805
Vancouver: +179,394
Ottawa: +164,524
Calgary: +100,461
Edmonton: +118,506

[J.OT13]

Here's the Stats Can link.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=9810000501

EDIT:

Breakdown by neighbourhood.

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/3054#12/45.4058/-75.7343

[Aylmer]

According to Fox News, there are 1.5 million occupiers in Ottawa. So at 3 million, we've actually overtaken Vancouver.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Aylmer

According to Fox News, there are 1.5 million occupiers in Ottawa. So at 3 million, we've actually overtaken Vancouver.

How are they allowed to exist?

[Proof Sheet]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

How are they allowed to exist?

Are you referring to Fox News, Ottawa or Vancouver being allowed to exist

For many, Fox News is the only mainstream beacon of truth. Others find it just a waste of bandwidth and are glad it isn't available on their cable/satellite package.

[GeoNerd]

Maybe an admin can move the census conversation simultaneously happening in the General Update/Rumour thread over to this thread. Also, the title is incorrect for this thread. Ottawa did not re-overtake Calgary. It just regained 4th. Re-overtaking would imply it overtook Calgary more than once, when in reality it was always larger than Calgary, except for a brief overtake by Calgary in the last census.

[J.OT13]

More numbers in the central core:

Downtown: 15.5%
Centretown: 8.6%
Lowertown: 5.2% (but that will shoot way up once the Rideau towers are all completed)
Island of Hull: 20.3%
Old Ottawa East: 20.9%
Mechanicsville: 10.1%
Glebe: 3.1%

Pretty much everything in pre-war Ottawa gained a decent amount of population.

Meanwhile, central Montreal has either decreased, or gained very little, with a few exceptions. Same with Quebec City.

Toronto is a mixed bag, with huge gains and huge loses in the central area.

We can really see that Ottawa's policies encourage growth in streetcar suburbs in the core compared to Toronto and Montreal.

Before criticizing the Glebe's respectable 3.1%, check out the huge loses in similar Toronto areas.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

More numbers in the central core:

Downtown: 15.5%
Centretown: 8.6%
Lowertown: 5.2% (but that will shoot way up once the Rideau towers are all completed)
Island of Hull: 20.3%
Old Ottawa East: 20.9%
Mechanicsville: 10.1%
Glebe: 3.1%

Pretty much everything in pre-war Ottawa gained a decent amount of population.

Meanwhile, central Montreal has either decreased, or gained very little, with a few exceptions. Same with Quebec City.

Toronto is a mixed bag, with huge gains and huge loses in the central area.

We can really see that Ottawa's policies encourage growth in streetcar suburbs in the core compared to Toronto and Montreal.

Before criticizing the Glebe's respectable 3.1%, check out the huge loses in similar Toronto areas.

As you point out, at the neighbourhood level, a couple of projects can make a massive difference. At 1.5 people per unit, you need about 80 new units in a neighbourhood of 12,000 to grow by 1%. A project like Lansdowne or Royale would change these neighbourhood numbers by approximately 3-4% all on their own.

[Acajack]

My inner suburban area of Gatineau and all adjacent areas have declined slightly.

The area isn't actually in serious decline. It's just the reflection of households getting older, kids leaving home, and parents not selling off the family house just yet. 2 people living in houses that used to have 2 or 3 more people living in them.

[Mille Sabords]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

This isn't surprising. Ottawa has grown substantially in the past five years while Calgary's oil economy has struggled.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...ties-1.6344179

Good. Calgary goes back where they belong. Fourth place was never available in the first place.

[Williamoforange]

Originally Posted by phil235

As you point out, at the neighbourhood level, a couple of projects can make a massive difference. At 1.5 people per unit, you need about 80 new units in a neighbourhood of 12,000 to grow by 1%. A project like Lansdowne or Royale would change these neighbourhood numbers by approximately 3-4% all on their own.

Downtown +2277
Centretown +1067
Lowertown +673
Island of Hull +2051
Old Ottawa East +1083
Mechanicsville +935
Glebe +363 (Total Pop 11,922)

Other inner greenbelt areas:
Carlington West +535 (not near rapid transit)
Carlington East +1005 (12089 total pop)
Cityview +838
Bel-air +473
Alta-Vista +917 (Total pop 14,714)
Cityview/skyline/Fischer-Heights +365 (Not near rapid transit)
Borden farms/Fisher Glen +724 (not near rapid transit)

The Glebe grew 363 in five years even with "all" of that new development going on that the vocal minority have fought so hard. So, Lets look to the next 5 years for the Glebe to welcome 500 new neighbours, as it stands with its restrictive zoning of on average R3 in the neighbourhood it would take the conversion of 166 lots or 2.8% of all existing dwelling (Existing dwelling include apartments, condos, triplexes, duplexes, which i've been told the Glebe is already "full" of).

Map of the type of dwelling as of 2016, roughly 170 SFH in the area bounded by 417, lyon, glebe ave, and Percy.....

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/717#15/45.4023/-75.6977

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Williamoforange

Downtown +2277
The Glebe grew 363 in five years even with "all" of that new development going on that the vocal minority have fought so hard. So, Lets look to the next 5 years for the Glebe to welcome 500 new neighbours, as it stands with its restrictive zoning of on average R3 in the neighbourhood it would take the conversion of 166 lots or 2.8% of all existing dwelling (Existing dwelling include apartments, condos, triplexes, duplexes, which i've been told the Glebe is already "full" of).

Map of the type of dwelling as of 2016, roughly 170 SFH in the area bounded by 417, lyon, glebe ave, and Percy.....

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/717#15/45.4023/-75.6977

Not sure that your target will be much of an issue. By my count there are at least 370 new units coming on line this year alone, between Minto, Amica and the Marabella on Pretoria. Katasa at Carling and Bronson is another 168 units under construction, so you've blown through 500 units just in large projects that are underway, with four years to go. That's roughly 800 new residents.

The two proposed towers on either side of Bank on Chamberlain and Isabella will give you another 300 units, and the proposed tower at Carling and Bronson pushes that to 500. And that's not counting the smaller infill projects like Monk and Fifth. (And as an aside, the community association is also pushing for additional affordable housing at Lansdowne, which itself consists of several hundred units that came on line just before the 5-year period that you are citing.) All told, this would result in a population increase of about 15% in 5 years.

I think most reasonable people would suggest that is quite a lot of development for a neighbourhood that is mostly built out.

[Stephen Ave]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

This isn't surprising. Ottawa has grown substantially in the past five years while Calgary's oil economy has struggled.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cen...ties-1.6344179

You probably already know this, but in case people aren't aware, it's not necessarily due to the struggling oil economy, it's because the CMA for Ottawa has increased in area adding an extra 1,200 square kms. Calgary has actually grown by more people than Ottawa over the past 5 years using the previous boundaries. I'm not saying the Ottawa increase due to adding extra land isn't legit, only that it's not necessarily economy related, though the hit on oil and gas over the past 5 years would still be part of the reason. If Calgary's economy was doing better, they may have still held onto 4th place even with Ottawa's CMA area bump.

Not to through further gas on the fire, but for those gleefully celebrating Calgary's demotion 'back to where it belongs', they may be disappointed in 5 years or less. Even if the two cities grew at the same pace, Calgary is very close to adding Foothills MD, which would give Calgary an 80K boost. The commute rule statistics have been changing over the past 5 years, and the MD was narrowly missed to being added to Calgary's CMA this past census. It's likely going to be added next census.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Aylmer

According to Fox News, there are 1.5 million occupiers in Ottawa. So at 3 million, we've actually overtaken Vancouver.

I don't know if I should LOL or scream, but good one.

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave

You probably already know this, but in case people aren't aware, it's not necessarily due to the struggling oil economy, it's because the CMA for Ottawa has increased in area adding an extra 1,200 square kms.

I did not know that. Thanks! Depending on where those 1,200 sq km are, it would either result in a 10-40K bump or a negligible bump. I haven't had the time to look.

The fact of the matter is, Calgary, Ottawa & Edmonton will no doubt continue to be cities/CMAs of roughly the same size for quite some time. The impact of remote working thanks to COVID-19 could also slow these cities.

[sgera]

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave

You probably already know this, but in case people aren't aware, it's not necessarily due to the struggling oil economy, it's because the CMA for Ottawa has increased in area adding an extra 1,200 square kms. Calgary has actually grown by more people than Ottawa over the past 5 years using the previous boundaries. I'm not saying the Ottawa increase due to adding extra land isn't legit, only that it's not necessarily economy related, though the hit on oil and gas over the past 5 years would still be part of the reason. If Calgary's economy was doing better, they may have still held onto 4th place even with Ottawa's CMA area bump.

Not to through further gas on the fire, but for those gleefully celebrating Calgary's demotion 'back to where it belongs', they may be disappointed in 5 years or less. Even if the two cities grew at the same pace, Calgary is very close to adding Foothills MD, which would give Calgary an 80K boost. The commute rule statistics have been changing over the past 5 years, and the MD was narrowly missed to being added to Calgary's CMA this past census. It's likely going to be added next census.

Well...not sure i agree. I think the stats canada CMA estimates based on 2016 boundaries overestimated growth in Calgary and Edmonton over the last few years...and underestimated growth for Ottawa....if we assume all had the typical of 2-3% undercount...that would suggest that the NCR Ottawa-Gatineau is well north of 1.5M (we'll find out later in the year) and Calgary / Edmonton are lower than recent estimates. Using 2021 boundaries, no doubt that the NCR gained 20k people from the inclusion of Arnprior and Carleton Place, which is legit ...if you drive out there and see how much new housing construction is going on with Ottawa residents moving out further to seek cheaper housing it's clear that these are new 'suburbs of ottawa'. If we fast forward five years from now...just as Calgary gains Foothills...one can expect Ottawa to gain Kemptville and Rockland at a minimum as folks look for the next fringe suburb to escape housing pricing affordability.

[waterloowarrior]

I've been posting on SSP for 16 years and every census the Calgary forumers complain about Ototoks and Foothills not being included in the CMA lol... One day!!

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by sgera

Well...not sure i agree. I think the stats canada CMA estimates based on 2016 boundaries overestimated growth in Calgary and Edmonton over the last few years...and underestimated growth for Ottawa....if we assume all had the typical of 2-3% undercount...that would suggest that the NCR Ottawa-Gatineau is well north of 1.5M (we'll find out later in the year) and Calgary / Edmonton are lower than recent estimates. Using 2021 boundaries, no doubt that the NCR gained 20k people from the inclusion of Arnprior and Carleton Place, which is legit ...if you drive out there and see how much new housing construction is going on with Ottawa residents moving out further to seek cheaper housing it's clear that these are new 'suburbs of ottawa'. If we fast forward five years from now...just as Calgary gains Foothills...one can expect Ottawa to gain Kemptville and Rockland at a minimum as folks look for the next fringe suburb to escape housing pricing affordability.

Kemptville and Rockland (along with Embrun and Russell) are already part of the CMA. Kemptville was added in 2016, and Embrun/Russell/Rockland have been in since the 1990s.

[GeoNerd]

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave

You probably already know this, but in case people aren't aware, it's not necessarily due to the struggling oil economy, it's because the CMA for Ottawa has increased in area adding an extra 1,200 square kms. Calgary has actually grown by more people than Ottawa over the past 5 years using the previous boundaries. I'm not saying the Ottawa increase due to adding extra land isn't legit, only that it's not necessarily economy related, though the hit on oil and gas over the past 5 years would still be part of the reason. If Calgary's economy was doing better, they may have still held onto 4th place even with Ottawa's CMA area bump.

Not to through further gas on the fire, but for those gleefully celebrating Calgary's demotion 'back to where it belongs', they may be disappointed in 5 years or less. Even if the two cities grew at the same pace, Calgary is very close to adding Foothills MD, which would give Calgary an 80K boost. The commute rule statistics have been changing over the past 5 years, and the MD was narrowly missed to being added to Calgary's CMA this past census. It's likely going to be added next census.

Why are Calgarians so insecure about their population? It seems very census people in Calgary go haywire one way or another over their population stats. I think 99% of people in Ottawa don't care whatsoever or even notice. Strange.

[davee930]

Originally Posted by GeoNerd

Why are Calgarians so insecure about their population? It seems very census people in Calgary go haywire one way or another over their population stats. I think 99% of people in Ottawa don't care whatsoever or even notice. Strange.

Because we are surrounded by hay bales instead of real people. What do you expect??