Will we ever have a modern Green Bay in sports?

[xzmattzx]

Green Bay is an anomaly in the four major leagues of North America. It is much smaller than any other TV market, and it is an obvious holdover from earlier times before World War II. Nowadays, a place like Green Bay would never get or have a team in one of the four major leagues.

But, could a small city get a major league team in the future at some point? If so, what dynamics would have to be in their favor, and what place would you see getting a team, and in what sport?

For instance, Green Bay doesn't make sense on the surface, but it works because Milwaukee never got an NFL team (it almost got an AFL team when that league started, and the NFL threatened to move the Packers to Milwaukee in the 1950s unless a bigger stadium was built, hence Lambeau Field now). Green Bay is Milwaukee's de facto NFL team. In fact, Green Bay is the home team for all of Wisconsin, since it doesn't have to share the state with another team, like is the case in Pennsylvania or Ohio. While Green Bay isn't too close to Milwaukee, it also isn't too far away, and going there for just a day works. It also helps that it's the NFL, which largely plays on Sundays, so it's easier for fans to go on a day off from work, compared to a random Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday for the NBA or NHL, or half of a week for an MLB series. There are only 8/9 home games a season, so anyone from farther away doesn't have to plan too many trips. Finally, the NFL is pretty decentralized as far as fans go (although that is kind of the case for all four leagues), and it is common to find Packers fans in Virginia, New York, Florida, Arizona, Oregon, etc, who may or may not have connections with Wisconsin.

So, could a franchise in one of the four major leagues of North America work in a smaller city like Green Bay, if it happened in the future?

[Steely Dan]

The short answer to the question in the thread title is "NO".

There would be absolutely no compelling reason for a major league franchise, in this day and age, to locate themselves in the 158th largest MSA in the nation when there are dozens of other FAR larger candidates without teams. There's just zero sense in it.

To put that into perspective, the second smallest MSA to host a major league team is Buffalo at #49. Green bay is WAY off the charts tiny for pro sports. The Packers being located in little old Green Bay might be a fun and silly anachronism these days, but it's still an anachronism nonetheless.




but speaking of the Packers and Milwaukee, it seems that not everyone remembers that from 1933 until 1995, the Packers actually played 1 preseason game and 2 or 3 regular season "home" games each year down in Milwaukee, first at State Fair Park, then switching to Milwaukee County Stadium in 1953. So several generations of Milwaukeeans had a very real and tangible hold on their packer fandom that went way beyond ""hey, at least they're from Wisconsin" or "green bay isn't that far away". Milwaukee literally was the second home city of the Packers for over 6 decades.

By the mid 90s, renovations to Lambeau made the stadium expansive enough that the Packers decided to forgo the old Milwaukee games and decided to permanently play all home games in green bay. However, they still honor all of the old Milwaukee season ticket holders with the "gold package" that gives them tickets to one preseason and two regular season games a year. My father in law, a 75 year Milwaukee packer fan for life, inherited his packer "gold package" season tickets from his father, who had them since the 60s. And he will pass them down in his will when he passes on.

[Manitopiaaa]

Betteridge's law of headlines applies here.

[DCReid]

And don't even think about moving them!

[iheartthed]

The only reason the Packers are in Green Bay is because of the very unique ownership structure of the team. The NFL doesn't even allow that type of ownership model anymore, so it has zero chance of being replicated in football. I doubt the other major leagues allow it either.

[jmecklenborg]

The continued existence of the publicly-owned Packers enriches the character of the league.

Another totally ridiculous NFL ownership situation is that the Cleveland Browns retained the "Browns" name even after Paul Brown was fired, moved, and founded a new team in Cincinnati. He took the old orange Browns helmets with him so he had to choose a new team name that could use them - that's how Cincinnati's NFL team ended up being The Bengals.

The Brown family still owns The Bengals. They bought out all of their minority shareholders around 2012, with the exception of one share. So they are impervious to a minority shareholder plot, since there aren't any. Up in Cleveland, Art Model ended up losing control of The Browns when his minority shareholders colluded to get the Indians moved out of Cleveland Municipal Stadium, which Model bought for cheap from the city in the 1970s. His finances collapsed when the Indians no longer paid him rent and he couldn't maintain the old stadium. That's when the minority shareholders forced him to move to bring in more revenue but he wasn't able to get out from under the Cleveland Municipal Stadium costs in time and was forced to sell his stake in the team. He died and apparently his kids inherited nothing.

Meanwhile, the Brown family will pass ownership to the third generation when Mike Brown dies. His daughter Katie will inherit a franchise worth well over $1 billion. She has a law degree and has been actively negotiating player contracts for the past 20 years so she's well-poised to take over management of the team.

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The continued existence of the publicly-owned Packers enriches the character of the league.

Another totally ridiculous NFL ownership situation is that the Cleveland Browns retained the "Browns" name even after Paul Brown was fired, moved, and founded a new team in Cincinnati. He took the old orange Browns helmets with him so he had to choose a new team name that could use them - that's how Cincinnati's NFL team ended up being The Bengals.

The Brown family still owns The Bengals. They bought out all of their minority shareholders around 2012, with the exception of one share. So they are impervious to a minority shareholder plot, since there aren't any. Up in Cleveland, Art Model ended up losing control of The Browns when his minority shareholders colluded to get the Indians moved out of Cleveland Municipal Stadium, which Model owned. His finances collapsed when the Indians no longer paid him rent, which forced the move of the team, and that's when the minority shareholders pounced and forced him to sell to them.

The next two generations of the Brown family are all women so The Bengals are poised to be a female-owned NFL team for the next 50+ years.

Speaking of the Bengals, aren't they in the superbowl this year?

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by MAC123

Speaking of the Bengals, aren't they in the superbowl this year?

Yes, despite losing to Green Bay in the regular season.

[Boisebro]

if i'm not mistaken, i believe Winnipeg is the next-smallest metro with a major league team (Jets)... and Winnipeg is more than twice the size of Green Bay. if you add CFL teams into the "major" mix, Regina is smaller than Green Bay.

technically, i'd say it's possible for a small city to support a major league team. i think it'd most likely need to be an NFL team... look at how many small towns and villages pack enormous stadiums for college football every autumn saturday, so it's not about logistics, it's more about regional interest and passion. question is, could the NFL duplicate that? and if so, where? what sub-500k metro in the U.S. or Canada could be the "safest bet"?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Boisebro

if i'm not mistaken, i believe Winnipeg is the next-smallest metro with a major league team (Jets)... and Winnipeg is more than twice the size of Green Bay. if you add CFL teams into the "major" mix, Regina is smaller than Green Bay.

technically, i'd say it's possible for a small city to support a major league team. i think it'd most likely need to be an NFL team... look at how many small towns and villages pack enormous stadiums for college football every autumn saturday, so it's not about logistics, it's more about regional interest and passion. question is, could the NFL duplicate that? and if so, where? what sub-500k metro in the U.S. or Canada could be the "safest bet"?

How far does Winnipeg's fan base reach? It's probably quite a bit smaller base than Green Bay, since the Packers are the de facto pro football team for the entire state of Wisconsin. They'd have the exact same fan base if they played in Milwaukee instead of Green Bay.

[Razor]

Originally Posted by Boisebro

if you add CFL teams into the "major" mix, Regina is smaller than Green Bay.

Not to change topics, but speaking of the CFL and Regina, the CFL is the only sports league with two of their teams having the same name playing at the same time..The Saskatchewan Rough Riders (Regina), and the Ottawa Rough Riders..I never researched why this was, but what made it even more unusual, was that it was/is such a small league to begin with.

Other than that, Yes Winnipeg is the next smallest metro to have a pro Sports franchise in one of the big 4..Buffalo, while larger then Winnipeg, would be the next smallest, and Buffalo has two of the big 4 like already mentioned! Buffalo has a big draw for the NFL though..The GTA and Niagara region on the cdn side is a big market for them to tap into.

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

To put that into perspective, the second smallest MSA to host a major league team is Buffalo at #49. Green bay is WAY off the charts tiny for pro sports. The Packers being located in little old Green Bay might be a fun and silly anachronism these days, but it's still an anachronism nonetheless.

but speaking of the Packers and Milwaukee, it seems that not everyone remembers that from 1933 until 1995, the Packers actually played 1 preseason game and 2 or 3 regular season "home" games each year down in Milwaukee, first at State Fair Park, then switching to Milwaukee County Stadium in 1953. So several generations of Milwaukeeans had a very real and tangible hold on their packer fandom that went way beyond ""hey, at least they're from Wisconsin" or "green bay isn't that far away". Milwaukee literally was the second home city of the Packers for over 6 decades.

By the mid 90s, renovations to Lambeau made the stadium expansive enough that the Packers decided to forgo the old Milwaukee games and decided to permanently play all home games in green bay. However, they still honor all of the old Milwaukee season ticket holders with the "gold package" that gives them tickets to one preseason and two regular season games a year. My father in law, a 75 year Milwaukee packer fan for life, inherited his packer "gold package" season tickets from his father, who had them since the 60s. And he will pass them down in his will when he passes on.

Yes. . . not only is Green Bay a small city for hosting an NFL team. . . as a city it's basically a non-entity for even the state of Wisconsin. . . most of the nearby anything-to-do in that area is in the nearby Fox Cities, in neighboring Door County or simply further north. . . I've never been to Green Bay unless I was at a Packer game. . . and as you noted, also a gold package ticket holder, so we're up there at least a couple times a year. . .

. . . and with that they're only NOW getting the idea - with the adjacent Titletown entertainment complex - that they could capitalize on the fact that people will come to the city even when there are no games, if only to visit the stadium pro shop. . .

It's a weird place for sure. . . not merely an anachronism. . .

. . .

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

How far does Winnipeg's fan base reach? It's probably quite a bit smaller base than Green Bay, since the Packers are the de facto pro football team for the entire state of Wisconsin. They'd have the exact same fan base if they played in Milwaukee instead of Green Bay.

With the exception of about 75,000 people living in Kenosha (about half the county population), which are Bears fans. . . but carry on, I'm intrigued by anything and everything Winnipeg. . .

. . .

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

How far does Winnipeg's fan base reach? It's probably quite a bit smaller base than Green Bay, since the Packers are the de facto pro football team for the entire state of Wisconsin. They'd have the exact same fan base if they played in Milwaukee instead of Green Bay.

Winnepeg has about 780K in its metro per Canadian stats. Plus, its hockey, and traditionally the league was willing to favor northern cities that would favor the sport. Then the league started relocating teams to bigger metros with more TV audience and bigger corporate support even if they were not traditional cities - like Dallas, Phoenix and Miami. Anyway, Green Bay draws from all over the state and even nationwide. They are similar fan base outreach as the Pittsburgh Steelers and even the Cowboys.

[Innsertnamehere]

Quebec City could eventually get an NHL team at some point, and it's only slightly larger than Winnipeg.

Buffalo does have a bit of pull from the Canadian side of the border for the NFL.. but I can tell you it's not much. There are a decent amount of Bills (and Sabres) fans in Niagara, but once you get into Hamilton and the GTA the number of people who follow any Buffalo sports drops of a cliff. Hamilton has a popular CFL team which diverts attention and most people in the GTA that pay attention to football, of which there aren't a ton, tend to cheer for a random dispersal of NFL teams from across the US.

Toronto is peculiar in a sense that it's CFL team is by far the worst performing CFL team despite being in the largest market. I think it suffers from not being a part of the "big four", of which Toronto has the other three teams, so people tend to focus on those sports and ignore the "minor league" CFL.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

With the exception of about 75,000 people living in Kenosha (about half the county population), which are Bears fans. . .

. . .

you'll also find a decent number of vikings fans up in the NW corner of wisconsin over by the twin cities. the MN/WI border (the st. croix river) is only 16 miles due east of downtown st. paul. in fact two WI counties are part of the twin cities MSA (St. Croix and Pierce counties) with a combined population of 136,000 people.


but yes, 95% of wisconsin is thoroughly cheesehead nation, as they should be considering how well the franchise is run and the success the team has had over the decades. playing in, BY FAR, the smallest metro area of any of the major NA sports leagues has not hampered them one bit. in fact, for a nice counterpoint, look at two of their sad and pathetic main rivals, the bears and lions, who play in the two largest MSAs in the midwest.

being big clearly does not automatically equal being good on the athletic field.

Originally Posted by Boisebro

if i'm not mistaken, i believe Winnipeg is the next-smallest metro with a major league team (Jets)...

you're right.

like a typical american, i forgot about canada when i said buffalo was the second smallest.

and i even have a much higher general awareness of the NHL than the average american.

shame on me.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Boisebro

technically, i'd say it's possible for a small city to support a major league team. i think it'd most likely need to be an NFL team... look at how many small towns and villages pack enormous stadiums for college football every autumn saturday, so it's not about logistics, it's more about regional interest and passion. question is, could the NFL duplicate that? and if so, where? what sub-500k metro in the U.S. or Canada could be the "safest bet"?

I imagine Green Bay kind of mirrors the big college football example? The big college teams and their giant stadiums draw fans from the entire state and region (these are usually the big state universities), much like Green Bay does in Wisconsin.

But I just don't see an NFL team working in many sub-500k metros that are not in relative proximity to larger metro areas. It's not so much about regional interest and passion, as it is about media market money. The Packers can exist in Green Bay because they are in media market which is within a 300-mile radius of huge population (and they have the history to get eyes watching TVs).

Basically, I don't see how an NFL team could even exist in a Boise or an Albuquerque... even though they are larger metros than 500k.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by pj3000

it is about media market money.

exactly.

it's not about filling a giant stadium 8 sundays a year.

numerous flyspeck college towns sprinkled all across the nation have proven that is a fairly simple task if you've developed a loyal die-hard fanbase.

it's the size of the media market that matters, and the packers have very successfully made themselves into "wisconsin's team".

the whole damn state, and its 5.9M people, is their media market. if you've ever driven anywhere in wisconsin during football season, you know this from seeing the innumerable green and gold packer flags flying outside of homes, bars, restaurants, gas stations, churches, other businesses, and everywhere else, from one end of the state clear across to the other. people in the far extreme SW corner of the state 200 miles from green bay are every single bit as passionate about "their" packers as the people who live across the street from Lambeau. it is 100% a full-on state-wide phenomenon.

and of course, their underdog "small market success story" aspect has also earned them legions of fans all across the nation. they are one of the few NFL franchises with true national penetration. and lucking their way into having two of the best and most popular QBs of the past 30 years playing back-to-back for them didn't hurt with that either.

[JManc]

Packers' fans are all over the place as well. Many aren't even associated with WI at all. Extremely loyal fan base that seems to transcend physical location.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Winnepeg has about 780K in its metro per Canadian stats. Plus, its hockey, and traditionally the league was willing to favor northern cities that would favor the sport.

Recent estimates for Winnipeg put the city population close to 770k, and the Metro over 850k. The past decade had fairly high growth.

It's also a provincial capital and has many Provincial and Federal government jobs (Royal Canadian Mint, National Microbiology Lab) with 2 universities and many colleges so it "punches will above its weight" compared to an equivalent sized US Metro.
http://citypopulation.de/en/canada/agglo/manitoba/602__winnipeg/

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Quebec City could eventually get an NHL team at some point, and it's only slightly larger than Winnipeg.

Buffalo does have a bit of pull from the Canadian side of the border for the NFL.. but I can tell you it's not much. There are a decent amount of Bills (and Sabres) fans in Niagara, but once you get into Hamilton and the GTA the number of people who follow any Buffalo sports drops of a cliff.

Quebec deserves to get the Nordiques back. It's growing and is a huge fan base for NHL. Between Montreal and Quebec City there's more than enough of a potential fanbase.


With Buffalo, people forget there's not only almost 500k Canadians in Niagara within a 35 minute drive to the border crossing, but Rochester, NY just 65-70 miles down the I-90 is a Metro of over 1 Million people as well.

For sports, Buffalo essentially has a potential market of 2.5M+ people to pull from.