DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

That was quite the narrative and at the least well articulated

But it reminds me of the client who brings in a long list to the therapist's office and the therapist calmly asking "Which one of these items would you like to tackle first?" Or my Ex deciding she's unhappy and it's all my fault b/c ofc she's having a bad hair day.

I'm more of a Macro guy

A decade ago (which isn't long in hindsight) we were still trying to recover from the greatest financial crisis in my lifetime and in most places there were so many 'extra' houses around that affordability was the last thing anybody concerned themselves with.

Housing affordability has only become a 'growing' problem over the last four to five years and if you want to understand where this is true then take a second look at the migration map I posted and a larger sample size over the last decade would include Colorado and Washington State.

While there's no shortage of land, Millennials decided they wanted to live in city centers so why build outward if nobody wants to live there (going back a decade)? Unfortunately urban construction is expensive and Denver doesn't have the needed depth of 40 year old properties to mitigate the higher cost of new construction.

Don't forget there's the Pandemic created constipated global supply chain. But at the end of the day if buyers weren't willing to step up and pay higher prices then prices wouldn't go up.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I'm not so sure that the fact that COVID disproportionately kills the old explains why we haven't rallied together around defeating it. I think we live in an age where misinformation is easily spread and there are a million actors competing for every last second of the public's ever diminishing attention span. The fact that a novel pathogen is responsible for a million excess American deaths in under two years should be enough to cause a country to come together even if it spares the young. As a fit 32 year old, I've never been afraid of becoming seriously ill but I guess I can tolerate trivial inconveniences if that might save someone's grandpa or grandma.

[TakeFive]

Impressive comment; very well said

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I'm not so sure that the fact that COVID disproportionately kills the old explains why we haven't rallied together around defeating it. I think we live in an age where misinformation is easily spread and there are a million actors competing for every last second of the public's ever diminishing attention span. The fact that a novel pathogen is responsible for a million excess American deaths in under two years should be enough to cause a country to come together even if it spares the young. As a fit 32 year old, I've never been afraid of becoming seriously ill but I guess I can tolerate trivial inconveniences if that might save someone's grandpa or grandma.

Speaking of bad hair days

that would be today's markets. Interest rates and crude oil are 'popping' while stocks are down.

What this means

Higher interest rates will impact the resale housing market but less so new home construction. That may be a good thing, sort of.

Higher crude oil prices mean higher gas costs at the pump (obviously) but I don't expect we'll ever again see an 'over-investment' in oil & gas drilling leading to a crash in prices like happened in 2014.

We are going to have to live with higher gas costs moving forward I suspect. The now over $85/barrel (today's closing @ $86.04) means where I'm at gas costs reaching $4.00/gallon. Just something else that will aggravate inflation as oil is a component of hundreds of products and the now habit of warehouse to home delivery will mean increasing costs to the consumer on a number of things.

[TakeFive]

Changing the Topic

How many of you have been around long enough to remember January of 1995? Well I remember. What a year that was!

This time in 1995 we were anticipating the opening of Denver International Airport (February 28, 1995). But that's not all. We were also anticipating the opening of Coors Field (April 26, 1995). And just to top things off there was all this buzz about a "New Urbanism" neighborhood developing where the old Stapleton airport was vacating.

When DIA was built there was this natural anticipation of duplicating the success of DFW and it's surrounding development. But that never happened. Denver has never attracted the 'heavier' industry whether aircraft related or in general.

It has taken 25 years for DIA to finally begin to see the original vision of development. The opening of the Gaylord Rockies Resort (Dec 17, 2018) was one catalyst for the area.

Using a smaller lens I understand that many bemoan the "sprawl" but using my macro lens and thinking of the ongoing development of the greater Denver metro area from (say) Castle Rock to Longmont, development around DIA is amazingly centrally located.

The wait was a godsend as today's warehouses and fulfillment centers are very different from 20 years ago; they're modern; they're automated and they're designed to meet all of our lifestyle changes over the last 25 years.

With respect to residential development today's new neighborhoods are much more dense; they're mixed use and mixed density which is so much more efficient from when Denver's own 'suburbs' were developed 40 to 50 years ago.

[TakeFive]

Somebody mentioned this recently

Tom's Diner prior to closing in March 2020 and construction activity January 2022


Photo courtesy GBX Group LLC via Mile High CRE

Construction Underway at Tom’s Diner
January 17, 2022 - Mile High CRE

I didn't realize exactly what had happened as a part of a happy ending

Tom’s Diner, an iconic 24/7 hotspot owned and operated for more than two decades by Denverite Tom Messina — that was recently saved from demolition and landed itself on the National Register of Historic Places — is currently undergoing a full renovation of the original space, a unique design pioneered in the mid-20th century by nationally recognized Los Angeles architecture firm Armét & Davis.

Cleveland-based GBX Group, a firm specializing in the acquisition, preservation, and operation of historic real estate in urban markets, and project developer Denver Land Company, played a key role in facilitating and materializing project plans.

[TakeFive]

I debated bringing this up; decided to throw it out there

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

Most of us are urbanists who want to live in a walkable neighborhood. All such areas in Denver have become stupid expensive.

I’m looking for two bedrooms so I can have enough space to not have to live like a 20-year-old anymore. Every once in a while one pops up that’s less than $400k (I only make $100k per year so my options are very limited) and they’re virtually always condos, so now we have to tack on an HOA of $600-ish per month. With the HOA and mortgage insurance, now we’re well north of $2500 per month and I’m priced out.

Another thing we have to consider is that most of these precious few homes available are going to end up in a bidding war and sell for more than their listing price, and often to a cash buyer.

I have seen some places I can barely afford show up from time to time (I have my search limited to “Denver”) but they’re usually something like a tiny ranch house with bars on the windows in SW Denver or something out in the middle of nowhere like Green Valley Ranch.

You did mention SW Denver and Green Valley Ranch.

I know of this really special area in SE Denver; I had to update what today's prices are. Mature landscaping, generally quiet and nearby access to whatever you could need. The neighborhood runs along (east of) the High Line Canal Trail where you can walk for miles and miles. To the west of the High Line Canal Trail lies Cherry Creek Country Club.



There's two projects that are concrete structures (that you're familiar with) with shared HVAC creating monthly HOA dues of $527/mo in what's called Woodstream Falls. There's a 2 bd 2 ba 1138 Sq Ft unit under contract that was listed for $220,000. Woodstream Falls is a half block from the High Line Canal Trail.

There's a nicer complex called Dayton Green at 2525 So Dayton Way Denver, 80231. The HOA is 'only' $393/mo. These units are right along the High Line Canal Trail and a 2 bd 2ba 1200 Sq Ft unit is currently under contract with a listed price of $274,000. Dayton Green would be my preference. Here's an aerial view. Here's a few photos:

....

....

Both complexes are 'out-of-place' in that they were built in 1972 & 1973 while the rest of the neighborhood is newer nicer townhomes, condos and apartments with individual utility meters. The neighborhood is SW of Iliff and Parker Rd. Babi Yar Park is within the neighborhood and across the street is Sam's No 3 and other retail.

Dayton Green

Woodstream Falls

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I'm not so sure that the fact that COVID disproportionately kills the old explains why we haven't rallied together around defeating it. I think we live in an age where misinformation is easily spread and there are a million actors competing for every last second of the public's ever diminishing attention span. The fact that a novel pathogen is responsible for a million excess American deaths in under two years should be enough to cause a country to come together even if it spares the young. As a fit 32 year old, I've never been afraid of becoming seriously ill but I guess I can tolerate trivial inconveniences if that might save someone's grandpa or grandma.

You aren't saving someone's grandpa. This disease is more infectious than the common cold. There is no way to avoid it and everyone will eventually get it. One positive, we will probably reach herd immunity faster with Omicron and the infection rate is already peaking... KNOCK ON WOOD.

On to development news... the Greyhound Station is almost entirely demolished really changing the look of the area. I will snap a picture soon.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I debated bringing this up; decided to throw it out there


You did mention SW Denver and Green Valley Ranch.

I know of this really special area in SE Denver; I had to update what today's prices are. Mature landscaping, generally quiet and nearby access to whatever you could need. The neighborhood runs along (east of) the High Line Canal Trail where you can walk for miles and miles. To the west of the High Line Canal Trail lies Cherry Creek Country Club.



There's two projects that are concrete structures (that you're familiar with) with shared HVAC creating monthly HOA dues of $527/mo in what's called Woodstream Falls. There's a 2 bd 2 ba 1138 Sq Ft unit under contract that was listed for $220,000. Woodstream Falls is a half block from the High Line Canal Trail.

There's a nicer complex called Dayton Green at 2525 So Dayton Way Denver, 80231. The HOA is 'only' $393/mo. These units are right along the High Line Canal Trail and a 2 bd 2ba 1200 Sq Ft unit is currently under contract with a listed price of $274,000. Dayton Green would be my preference. Here's an aerial view. Here's a few photos:

....

....

Both complexes are 'out-of-place' in that they were built in 1972 & 1973 while the rest of the neighborhood is newer nicer townhomes, condos and apartments with individual utility meters. The neighborhood is SW of Iliff and Parker Rd. Babi Yar Park is within the neighborhood and across the street is Sam's No 3 and other retail.

Dayton Green

Woodstream Falls

I get that you are trying to project this image that if you just look hard enough, you can find affordable places in Denver.... But the reality is that for most people, things have gotten crazy.

My building in Denver listed a unit on Redfin less than a week ago for $420k. It's a 1-bed / 1-bath 786 sq ft condo in Jefferson Park. It's already under contract.....

I also read a stunning stat the other day about the metro area at large. At the time of the Marshall fire, which burned around 1,000 homes, there were only 1,900-2,000 real estate listings in the ENTIRE Denver metro area. Think about that for a minute, the amount of houses that just got destroyed in a fire are equal to half of ALL real estate listings available for purchase across the metro area at the moment.

I don't see how the affordability problem doesn't get worse before interest rates start cooling things off later this year.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

The US has 2,626 deaths per million due to COVID. Name me a country that has more deaths per Capita that's not either in Latin America or Eastern Europe. Canada has 832 deaths per million even with an older population. There are a myriad of factors that influence how many dead bodies each country has packed up but I don't think you can say that Canada has taken the virus less seriously than we have. Yet, if we had their death rate, almost 600,000 Americans that died of COVID would still be alive. Obviously, Omicron is hard to avoid but I'm speaking retrospectively as others here mentioned that a pandemic wasn't going on for much of the population as if there haven't been close to a million excess Americans death and some seem to think that our level of mortality was inevitable, even though our demographically-comparable Northern peer has less than a third of our death rate

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

The US has 2,626 deaths per million due to COVID. Name me a country that has more deaths per Capita that's not either in Latin America or Eastern Europe. Canada has 832 deaths per million even with an older population. There are a myriad of factors that influence how many dead bodies each country has packed up but I don't think you can say that Canada has taken the virus less seriously than we have. Yet, if we had their death rate, almost 600,000 Americans that died of COVID would still be alive. I don't want to detract from the focus of this forum but people really seem to lack perspective on how absurd of a human cost we have tolerated in this country. Our obnoxious death toll was preventable through people having a scintilla of civic responsibility. I'll gladly destroy any statements that attempt to argue to the contrary. There is a bunch of literature objectively demonstrating the utility of public health interventions.

Lets keep this board on topic. I don't want to see another round of insults start flying because everyone thinks they have a perfect understanding of the world. Ryan recently cleaned up the non-development drivel and what a joy it was to be free of the bickering. Agreed?

That being in said, I'd be happy to meet you in person assuming you live somewhere in central Denver, perhaps a brewery? We can have our little discussion there versus annoying everyone on this board.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Fair enough. Sorry I get worked up about this. Great news on Greyhound. Just waiting to see when Amacon breaks ground. Looks like they were resolving something with the fire department last week.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Also, someone posted something on Reddit about demo going on for a 12 story apartment near 33rd and Blake. I have not been able to find any renderings of the project but Harris Kocher Smith is on the engineering. They applied for a ROW vacation on 1/7/2022.

[TakeFive]

I'm don't disagree

Originally Posted by twister244

I get that you are trying to project this image that if you just look hard enough, you can find affordable places in Denver.... But the reality is that for most people, things have gotten crazy.

My post was intended specifically for Sam's benefit and curiosity.

I now see that to the north of Dayton Green, a couple of Wind Stream 2 bd 2 ba 1328 Sq Ft condos w/ attached two car garage sold last year for $350,000. That's a really nice complex with an HOA of $305/month.

To the south of Dayton Green are the Beaumont Place condos, similarly priced. To the south of this complex and west of Babi Yar Park are some patio homes built for the Jewish community.

So why is this area so reasonably priced? Simple if dumb. On the east side of Parker Rd is Cherry Creek School Dist. Across Iliff to the north is Cherry Creek School Dist. This area is like a carve-out part of Denver so it's in Denver Schools.

Wind Stream

....

Starting my new Gig today or tomorrow so my focus and time will change.

[TakeFive]

This is an excellent point

Originally Posted by twister244

I don't see how the affordability problem doesn't get worse before interest rates start cooling things off later this year.

I'd consider using some patience as time may be an advantage.

Yes, it's possible there's some last minute buying fearing rates will go (even) higher - before sales 'hit a wall.' The advantage of a little higher rate is that so long as one can qualify, then you can always refinance should rates come back down.

[Arapahoe]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Fair enough. Sorry I get worked up about this. Great news on Greyhound. Just waiting to see when Amacon breaks ground. Looks like they were resolving something with the fire department last week.

np, we all have our triggers lol. I'm serious about beers IRL, open invitation to anyone on this board who is interested. Thinking Woods Boss. (I go there anyway

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Arapahoe

np, we all have our triggers lol. I'm serious about beers IRL, open invitation to anyone on this board who is interested. Thinking Woods Boss. (I go there anyway

Everyone has triggers except the Fed. They're just sitting back in those big leather chairs all unoffended at inflation while sipping green tea and streaming the spotify spa playlist.

[Ich]

https://milehighcre.com/mass-equities-to-bring-mixed-use-development-to-rino/

Sounds like this project should break ground soon.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I debated bringing this up; decided to throw it out there


You did mention SW Denver and Green Valley Ranch.

I know of this really special area in SE Denver; I had to update what today's prices are. Mature landscaping, generally quiet and nearby access to whatever you could need. The neighborhood runs along (east of) the High Line Canal Trail where you can walk for miles and miles. To the west of the High Line Canal Trail lies Cherry Creek Country Club.



There's two projects that are concrete structures (that you're familiar with) with shared HVAC creating monthly HOA dues of $527/mo in what's called Woodstream Falls. There's a 2 bd 2 ba 1138 Sq Ft unit under contract that was listed for $220,000. Woodstream Falls is a half block from the High Line Canal Trail.

There's a nicer complex called Dayton Green at 2525 So Dayton Way Denver, 80231. The HOA is 'only' $393/mo. These units are right along the High Line Canal Trail and a 2 bd 2ba 1200 Sq Ft unit is currently under contract with a listed price of $274,000. Dayton Green would be my preference. Here's an aerial view. Here's a few photos:

....

....

Both complexes are 'out-of-place' in that they were built in 1972 & 1973 while the rest of the neighborhood is newer nicer townhomes, condos and apartments with individual utility meters. The neighborhood is SW of Iliff and Parker Rd. Babi Yar Park is within the neighborhood and across the street is Sam's No 3 and other retail.

Dayton Green

Woodstream Falls

I haven’t really looked at that area yet, but I may eventually have to give up on living in “the city” and seriously consider a place like Dayton Green. What turns me off is how far away it is. It’s a long, expensive uber ride away from the neighborhoods like Baker and Five Points where my social life is centered. It’s the suburbs. The Sam’s #3 you mention is in a suburban shopping center surrounded by a moat of parking. It’s right next to Burger King and across the street from Hooters. That’s seriously depressing.

I haven’t lived in a place like that since I was a kid. I don’t know how people enjoy living in such places TBH. (Their answer to that question is usually, “Wait until YOU have kids…”)

I’ve spent my whole adult life living in walkable neighborhoods. (And by walkable I don’t mean, it’s technically possible to walk because there’s a trail nearby, or there’s this one cool restaurant within walking distance. I think you what is meant by “walkable neighborhood.” If you don’t, ask Ken.) Moving back to the burbs, where I haven’t lived since the twelfth grade would be a dramatic lifestyle change for me. It’s not appealing to me at this point in my life.

I appreciate you taking the time to familiarize me with those housing options though. A quiet, concrete-frame unit surrounded by greenery is tempting in a weird way.

My original point wasn’t necessarily to 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 about my own struggles; I was making a larger point about the abrupt change in Denver’s housing market I’ve personally witnessed.

I’m doing pretty okay. I have an income that is far above the median in this town, and yet I’m finding it more and more difficult to afford to stay in my city - in neighborhoods I’ve called home going back 25 years. Well I know “professionals” with college degrees that make half what I make. A relative of mine is a speech therapist with a masters degree who makes 60k and that’s apparently pretty decent for her field. Could they afford to live in Jefferson Park? Congress Park? Berkeley?

The median income in Denver is about $40k. The median household income is about $68k. How much longer can most of today’s Denverites afford to remain Denverites? When “the city” becomes an enclave for the wealthy, where all the people who serve their drinks, teach their kids, and police their streets are commuting in from elsewhere because they can’t afford to live here, that’s a problem. At that point Denver is no longer Denver and we’ve lost our city.

Denver is racing in that direction and it’s a heartbreaking thing to witness.

[Agent Orange]

Living in a walkable, pre-war neighborhood in an American city with a good job market has become a true luxury. I own a smaller place in Park Hill (not the nice bungalow part) which is fine for now but has some issues as a long term residence. I've accepted the fact that when it's time to move on/upgrade, I will be leaving Denver proper, or the state altogether. Most of my friends, many of them working in tech making very good money and until recently avowed city people who rejected their cul-de-sac upbringing, have dispersed to the suburbs during Covid. As much as I prefer walkable historic neighborhoods, I also like being able to have money leftover after my mortgage for savings and eating out. (And that's not to touch the violent crime and drug epidemic issues that have also made cities less pleasant of late.) The millennial "return to the city" dream of the car-lite, streetcar suburb, local business supporting lifestyle is dead for all but the very upper middle class. We're all Outback driving, split-level owning, Big Box shopping suburbanites now. It was nice while it lasted though.

Not surprising that there's not enough urbanish neighborhoods to go around. We basically made them illegal around 80 years ago. Back then the metro area population was 13.8% of its present population and we have essentially not built any new truly walkable mixed use neighborhoods since then, densification of those historic neighborhoods is mostly illegal, and meanwhile our population has increased almost seven fold. Same picture in every other US city.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

Living in a walkable, pre-war neighborhood in an American city with a good job market has become a true luxury. I own a smaller place in Park Hill (not the nice bungalow part) which is fine for now but has some issues as a long term residence. I've accepted the fact that when it's time to move on/upgrade, I will be leaving Denver proper, or the state altogether. Most of my friends, many of them working in tech making very good money and until recently avowed city people who rejected their cul-de-sac upbringing, have dispersed to the suburbs during Covid. As much as I prefer walkable historic neighborhoods, I also like being able to have money leftover after my mortgage for savings and eating out. (And that's not to touch the violent crime and drug epidemic issues that have also made cities less pleasant of late.) The millennial "return to the city" dream of the car-lite, streetcar suburb, local business supporting lifestyle is dead for all but the very upper middle class. We're all Outback driving, split-level owning, Big Box shopping suburbanites now. It was nice while it lasted though.

Not surprising that there's not enough urbanish neighborhoods to go around. We basically made them illegal around 80 years ago. Back then the metro area population was 13.8% of its present population and we have essentially not built any new truly walkable mixed use neighborhoods since then, densification of those historic neighborhoods is mostly illegal, and meanwhile our population has increased almost seven fold. Same picture in every other US city.

I've heard this same story from others. We moved to Stapleton into a new house in 2005, so "got in early". Where our house is located is currently walkable and I can walk to something like 19 locally owned restaurants (The Stanley and Eastbridge town center) and groceries, etc., so it finally ended up more like promised back in 2005. Obviously it's not a historic neighborhood, but I'm reasonably close to urban Denver and downtown, so I'm happy. What I'm not happy with this that our home value has more than doubled since buying it and last year, most of my 5% pay increase was eaten up by more property tax!