CHICAGO | General Discussions

[thegoatman]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

I've been keeping track of the amount of units proposed and U/C in Fulton Market from 2020-2021, thank to this map from a fellow forumer: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...638113428&z=14

In just the past 2 years, for the census region bounded by Halsted, Madison, Ashland, and Kinzie, there have been 7,027 units. Assuming a household size of 1.5 ppl, this would be about 10,540 new residents. Even if there was a 50% slowdown in residential proposals over next 8 years, that would be 14,054 additional units on top of the existing 7,027. At the end of the decade, this would translate to over 31,000 new residents, with a density of almost 75,000 ppsm, by the end of the decade! For comparison, that's on par with the average density of Manhattan.

Do note, the downtown rental supply is still low while demand is high, and as Fulton St Co. have pointed out investors are hungry for Fulton Market. The area could honestly exceed this rough estimate by the end of the decade. Fulton Market could

Crazy Chicago could have a neighborhood as dense as the ones in Manhattan. Great to see.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Crazy Chicago could have a neighborhood as dense as the ones in Manhattan. Great to see.

I mean, there already are pockets that are as dense as Manhattan already..

* The area of South Loop between Roosevelt, 14th, Wabash, and the Metra tracks near LSD is now 131,932 ppsm as of the 2020 Census.

* Streeterville between Michigan, LSD, Ohio, and the River is about 95,000 ppsm as of the 2020 Census. Perhaps next Census it'll be over 100,000 ppsm

* For Gold Coast, the Census Tract between Division, State, Dearborn, and Chicago Ave is over 105K ppsm as of the 2020 census. The tract next to that between Chicago, Division, Wells, and Dearborn is about 76K ppsm too and there's room for growth there too in the next decade.

The tract between Chicago Ave, the river, State, and Dearborn was nearly 84K ppsm as of the 2020 Census. This includes One Chicago which just opened up a few months ago. So if we say the 812 (or so) units would be 90% occupied at 1.5 people per unit, then that alone would push the density over 100K ppsm for that.

* Near Printers Row in South Loop between Harrison, Wells, Roosevelt, and Clark is over 72,000 ppsm. This actually includes the land next to Roosevelt Collection on the river, so it's possible that it's over 80,000 or 90,000 ppsm already even with Dearborn Station nearby. This isn't even including the newly opened Imprint building there and very close by is Riverline, where there's multiple buildings now and probably not all counted in the 2020 Census and especially one with over 400 units U/C right now.

This will probably be over 100K ppsm pretty soon.

[Briguy]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Crazy Chicago could have a neighborhood as dense as the ones in Manhattan. Great to see.

Parts of e lake view and Gold Coast are over 100,000ppsm

[thegoatman]

Originally Posted by Briguy

Parts of e lake view and Gold Coast are over 100,000ppsm

Lakeview has too many single family homes, no way any of it has Manhattan density. Same with gold coast. Although gold coast has some high rises.

[thegoatman]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I mean, there already are pockets that are as dense as Manhattan already..

* The area of South Loop between Roosevelt, 14th, Wabash, and the Metra tracks near LSD is now 131,932 ppsm as of the 2020 Census.

* Streeterville between Michigan, LSD, Ohio, and the River is about 95,000 ppsm as of the 2020 Census. Perhaps next Census it'll be over 100,000 ppsm

* For Gold Coast, the Census Tract between Division, State, Dearborn, and Chicago Ave is over 105K ppsm as of the 2020 census. The tract next to that between Chicago, Division, Wells, and Dearborn is about 76K ppsm too and there's room for growth there too in the next decade.

The tract between Chicago Ave, the river, State, and Dearborn was nearly 84K ppsm as of the 2020 Census. This includes One Chicago which just opened up a few months ago. So if we say the 812 (or so) units would be 90% occupied at 1.5 people per unit, then that alone would push the density over 100K ppsm for that.

* Near Printers Row in South Loop between Harrison, Wells, Roosevelt, and Clark is over 72,000 ppsm. This actually includes the land next to Roosevelt Collection on the river, so it's possible that it's over 80,000 or 90,000 ppsm already even with Dearborn Station nearby. This isn't even including the newly opened Imprint building there and very close by is Riverline, where there's multiple buildings now and probably not all counted in the 2020 Census and especially one with over 400 units U/C right now.

This will probably be over 100K ppsm pretty soon.

Where is Wicker Park at? So many multi developments in that neighborhood. Reminds me of Williamsburg in Brooklyn.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Lakeview has too many single family homes, no way any of it has Manhattan density. Same with gold coast. Although gold coast has some high rises.

Literally the densest true census tract in the entire city is in Gold Coast. I already detailed that in the post before. There are large parts of Lakeview East over 80,000 ppsm right now. Your view of LV is small if you think it's just a bunch of SFH. The eastern part is pretty dense.

[Briguy]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Lakeview has too many single family homes, no way any of it has Manhattan density. Same with gold coast. Although gold coast has some high rises.

Yeah that’s why I said parts. Lake view east of Broadway north of diversey and south of Addison is probably very close to 100k
Possibly edge water too east of Broadway.

[ardecila]

I believe that's based on 2010 data... the "Manhattan density" will likely show up on the 2030 census. It's crazy that Fulton Market will go from being the lowest density to the highest in just 20 years.

Side note, I wish there were a middle scale between census tract and community area to sort the data. A lot of the community areas don't always line up with hard edges in the city - like Near West Side that straddles both sides of the Eisenhower - so it's not enough resolution to see growth areas. But census tracts are too small so you just get a patchwork effect and noise.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Hopefully it will look cool in 10 years...a lot of tech boom fuel right now - 2 West Loop companies got $100M+ new funding each in the last 2 days. With the fact that residential can occur north of Lake St now...and all the proposals, it'll be crazy to see this area in 10 years.

Tech people are not what I have in mind when I think of vibrancy. Sorry...

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Tech people are not what I have in mind when I think of vibrancy. Sorry...

That's because what your idea of tech and who works in the field is out of date. This type of thing is also new in Chicago. If you look at NYC today in various parts and look at some of the newer trendy/luxury stuff, a good portion has been born out of its tech boom there.

It's fine though - eventually you'll see your idea of this is a bit far behind the times.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by marothisu

That's because what your idea of tech and who works in the field is out of date. This type of thing is also new in Chicago. If you look at NYC today in various parts and look at some of the newer trendy/luxury stuff, a good portion has been born out of its tech boom there.

It's fine though - eventually you'll see your idea of this is a bit far behind the times.

My buddy who works for Salesforce as a developer and his girlfriend who works in sales at SAP spend more money on going out to high end restaurants and bars than anyone I know.

[harryc]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Tech people are not what I have in mind when I think of vibrancy. Sorry...

Hey somebody's got to keep Rossi's in business.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Where is Wicker Park at? So many multi developments in that neighborhood. Reminds me of Williamsburg in Brooklyn.

It's not as dense as you're thinking - between Division, North, Ashland, and Hoyne it's 25,950 ppsm

Now, we were talking about Lakeview before...The area of Lakeview East between Diversey, Broadway, Addison, and LSD has a density of 82,985 ppsm for 26,102 people. That is 3.2X denser than Wicker Park. That area of LVE is on par with some areas of Williamsburg today in terms of density and greater than other parts. Wicker Park density wise at least in the area detailed above is more on par with some of the densest parts of Staten Island.

Also in Edgewater between Thorndale, Sheridan (right south of main part of Loyola campus), Broadway, and the lake is 73,548 ppsm.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I mean, there already are pockets that are as dense as Manhattan already..

* The area of South Loop between Roosevelt, 14th, Wabash, and the Metra tracks near LSD is now 131,932 ppsm as of the 2020 Census.

* Streeterville between Michigan, LSD, Ohio, and the River is about 95,000 ppsm as of the 2020 Census. Perhaps next Census it'll be over 100,000 ppsm

* For Gold Coast, the Census Tract between Division, State, Dearborn, and Chicago Ave is over 105K ppsm as of the 2020 census. The tract next to that between Chicago, Division, Wells, and Dearborn is about 76K ppsm too and there's room for growth there too in the next decade.

The tract between Chicago Ave, the river, State, and Dearborn was nearly 84K ppsm as of the 2020 Census. This includes One Chicago which just opened up a few months ago. So if we say the 812 (or so) units would be 90% occupied at 1.5 people per unit, then that alone would push the density over 100K ppsm for that.

* Near Printers Row in South Loop between Harrison, Wells, Roosevelt, and Clark is over 72,000 ppsm. This actually includes the land next to Roosevelt Collection on the river, so it's possible that it's over 80,000 or 90,000 ppsm already even with Dearborn Station nearby. This isn't even including the newly opened Imprint building there and very close by is Riverline, where there's multiple buildings now and probably not all counted in the 2020 Census and especially one with over 400 units U/C right now.

This will probably be over 100K ppsm pretty soon.

It's seems pretty disingenuous to compare density of Manhattan to anywhere in Chicago. Manhattan is essentially an island of 3M people crammed into like 25 sq miles. On daily basis, only 1 in 3 people on the island are residence, I can't imagine anywhere in Chicago (especially the south loop) with density numbers like that.

Even Williamsburg and East Lakeview doesn't pass the sniff test for me. I haven't been to Williamsburg since covid, but I can't think of anything in East Lakeview like the area around Bedford Ave Subway.
I actually find the Southport Corridor to be more vibrant than Broadway in East Lakeview, despite the obviously scaled back built environment.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

It's seems pretty disingenuous to compare density of Manhattan to anywhere in Chicago. Manhattan is essentially an island of 3M people crammed into like 25 sq miles. On daily basis, only 1 in 3 people on the island are residence, I can't imagine anywhere in Chicago (especially the south loop) with density numbers like that.

Even Williamsburg and East Lakeview doesn't pass the sniff test for me. I haven't been to Williamsburg since covid, but I can't think of anything in East Lakeview like the area around Bedford Ave Subway.
I actually find the Southport Corridor to be more vibrant than Broadway in East Lakeview, despite the obviously scaled back built environment.

I'm not sure why the word "pocket" would evoke such a large response apart from implying something that was completely not said.

We are talking about residential density too, not vibrancy. They're related but separate things. It's a simple formula - numbers of residents divided by the land area in square miles.

Now with that that being said, that POCKET (small) of South Loop I detailed with over 130K ppsm is completely a Manhattan density level. 3 years ago where we lived in Upper West Side had a nearly identical density. But again, it's a pocket, it's small. I never said there's big areas like this. That much is obvious if you know the boundaries.

Regarding Williamsburg. Sure you haven't been there in awhile. I have. We lived 2.5 miles from there for the 3 previous years up until the end of September. I didn't just pull numbers out of my ass. Officially via the 2020 US Census, that part of Williamsburg by Census Tract ranges from 50k ppsm to 90K ppsm which is exactly in line with the official 2020 Census densities for the section of LVE that I half painstakingly calculated with 58 Census Blocks to get its actual true density.

Now whether an area has more visitors hanging out there and how the built environment is/makes one feel is another story, which is what you are talking about and you alone because that's not wholly the same thing as the simple calculation of people(residents) per square mile. But via the 2020 US Census no they're actually pretty similar in terms of residential density between Williamsburg and LVE east of Broadway.

[the urban politician]

If a "pocket" of the South Loop has such high residential density, then grocers and bodegas obviously haven't gotten the message yet. Trader Joe's and Jewel still have surface parking

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

If a "pocket" of the South Loop has such high residential density, then grocers and bodegas obviously haven't gotten the message yet. Trader Joe's and Jewel still have surface parking

It's because there's multiple towers that which were only completed in the last small handful of years (or even newer) but have been leased up pretty well. That area though today feels quite a bit denser than it was even 5 years ago, though. From a downtown perspective this might be the densest pocket now or maybe top 3 (there might be a smaller section of Streeterville which is slightly denser IIRC).

https://www.google.com/maps/@41.8644...7i16384!8i8192

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

It's because there's multiple towers that which were only completed in the last small handful of years (or even newer) but have been leased up pretty well. That area though today feels quite a bit denser than it was even 5 years ago, though. From a downtown perspective this might be the densest pocket now or maybe top 3 (there might be a smaller section of Streeterville which is slightly denser IIRC).

https://www.google.com/maps/@41.8644...7i16384!8i8192

At what point is an area so small that it doesn't matter? What you linked is like 15 buildings in 2 linear blocks, i'd wager almost every large city with residential highrises has something similar to that. If you go east or west of that block, the residential density drops significantly.

Again, my point is that comparing density to Manhattan is disingenuous because:
1. the density isn't including all of the people in the neighborhood
2. the area is so tiny that it is basically meaningless

This isn't a better or worse scenario, as I much prefer the scale/pace of Chicago overall, but it just isn't all that meaningful.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

If a "pocket" of the South Loop has such high residential density, then grocers and bodegas obviously haven't gotten the message yet. Trader Joe's and Jewel still have surface parking

Jewel is behind the times for sure, but Trader Joe's sees equal numbers of walk-ins vs drivers. The drivers are people like me that live a few miles away from South Loop, but it's still the closest TJ's location.

With Jewel having two other locations on Roosevelt (at Canal and Ashland) I wonder if they will look to redevelop this site at some point. I assume there is some CRE landlord in the mix as well.

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by harryc

Hey somebody's got to keep Rossi's in business.

Hey, I resemble that remark!

. . .