Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[esquire]

Ooof.

[someone123]

Aside from the housing disaster I suspect the chart shows how there was too much stimulus in the pandemic. Note the upward blip around 2020 in disposable income. They should have tried to keep it steady. That's debt now.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by rofina

This is a painful chart to look at

Depends

[rofina]

Originally Posted by lio45

Depends

Lol - I hear you there.

But at a certain point this will go past profit and into pitchfork territory.

I think its best for pretty well most of us that pitchfork territory is avoided.

[SignalHillHiker]

Previous owner of my house was kind enough to send me some pictures from when she bought it She made a lot of changes.

Two bonus things: the hardwood is relatively new (2009; it was carpet on plywood before that) and the back deck is very new (2013).

This first one was taken after she put hardwood throughout the house (it was teal carpet) but before she did anything to the kitchen.



Same view when she was done:



Same view now:



*****

When she first bought it:



Now:



*****

When she first bought it:



Now:



*****

After she did the hardwood, but before the rest:



After she was done:



Now:



******

When she had it:



Now:



******

When she had it:



Now:

[le calmar]

^ Good job with that house! Although now it’s the second time I notice it and can’t unsee it lol. Your “mirror frame” with a flag in it is asymmetrical. Perhaps you could center the flag so that the gap on the left side is not too visible and mirrors the right side?

[SignalHillHiker]

There’s even a stain on it I noticed (flag is years old). I’m just going to replace the flag when I get around to it. And pin it in properly. Currently it’s duct tape and cardboard and the wall behind it is kind of holding it together lmao I just wanted some way to get it up other than hanging it on the wall. I’m 40 now ffs lol

Edit: Ordered. That one is 60” but I hauled it as hard as I could to stretch to cover the 64” hole lol. Next one is 70” so will be great haha.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

There’s even a stain on it I noticed (flag is years old). I’m just going to replace the flag when I get around to it. And pin it in properly. Currently it’s duct tape and cardboard and the wall behind it is kind of holding it together lmao I just wanted some way to get it up other than hanging it on the wall. I’m 40 now ffs lol

Edit: Ordered. That one is 60” but I hauled it as hard as I could to stretch to cover the 64” hole lol. Next one is 70” so will be great haha.

I really like that as a way to display a flag that isn't two thumbtacks, college dorm style. I'm going to steal that for my bar/office corner I'm assembling.

[Al Ski]

Originally Posted by someone123

Aside from the housing disaster I suspect the chart shows how there was too much stimulus in the pandemic. Note the upward blip around 2020 in disposable income. They should have tried to keep it steady. That's debt now.

While I realize that we would wouldn't want the average person to have too much disposable income - god forbid that might happen.. obvious socialism at work!

Perhaps the trillions of 'emergency' liquidity we've pumped into the billionaires since they caused the financial crisis 15 years ago..

When they were all found 'not guilty', cashed their bonuses and were encouraged to 'carry on', as if nothing had happened..

Call me crazy but.. there may be link there somewhere..

Someone should look into that!

[Al Ski]

Originally Posted by rofina

Lol - I hear you there.

But at a certain point this will go past profit and into pitchfork territory.

I think its best for pretty well most of us that pitchfork territory is avoided.

The small time spec/flippers - especially the ones who brag on the internet - don't worry about them, they'll be destroyed.

The pitchforks will be out for the true villains, and they'd better hope that they treated their guards well in the Before Time!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Al Ski

The small time spec/flippers - especially the ones who brag on the internet - don't worry about them, they'll be destroyed.

Entirely depends when you bought. In my case real estate values could go down by up to 80%, and rents back to what they were 10 years ago, and I'd still be perfectly fine.

But yeah, I agree that anyone paying current prices in order to build a rental portfolio of million-dollar cookie-cutter new houses in Welland, Ontario and aiming for long-term performance with it is taking a big risk, and probably not betting on the best horse.

[whatnext]

This story didn't get much coverage when it came out on CTV national last week but it shows how crime is intertwined with Canada's real estate market:

Drug and money laundering investigation 'Operation Mad Money' has links to GTA real estate, documents show
Jon Woodward
Published Saturday, January 8, 2022

A drug and money laundering investigation called "Operation Mad Money—which stretched from Toronto to British Columbia to China—has shown links between illegal marijuana sales and Toronto’s booming real estate market, CTV News Toronto has learned.

The investigation, led by the Calgary Police Service, is part of an attempt to seize millions in what authorities allege are drug profits that ended up in money service businesses in the Greater Toronto Area, who passed them along to people trying to buy homes.

And it could be the tip of the iceberg, says one retired Royal Canadian Mounted Police officer and money laundering expert. In an interview, Garry Clement says Ontario should follow in the footsteps of B.C. and call a public inquiry to assess how big an impact laundered money has in the property market.

“We know that this is going on, we know money is coming into the province. All you do is look at the number of condos that are sitting vacant,” Clement said.

“Canada really needs to sit down and realize we are still a very weak link. This case demonstrates that we have a long way to go."

The investigation started with a Calgary police officer buying marijuana from websites called BudExpressNow and Cheapweed, a motion filed in Ontario Superior Court says.

Court documents claim the sites didn’t have a licence to sell, and an investigation showed they did more than $3 million in business through multiple feeder accounts...

...In Ontario, authorities claim in documents filed in Superior Court that the alleged profits of the operation ended up in the control of Toronto-area money service businesses, which authorities say sent money in Canada to Chinese nationals interested in buying Toronto real estate.

In exchange, the Chinese nationals repaid the money in China, the documents say, pointing out that this is a way to circumvent currency controls in China that prevent money from easily being withdrawn from that country...

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/drug-and-mone...gta-real-estate-documents-show-1.5732868

[whatnext]

US inflation numbers out today an astounding 7%, the highest since 1982. How long can the Bank of Canada ignore these pressures and fail to raise interest rates?

U.S. Inflation Hits 39-Year High of 7%, Sets Stage for Fed Hike

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by whatnext

US inflation numbers out today an astounding 7%, the highest since 1982. How long can the Bank of Canada ignore these pressures and fail to raise interest rates?

U.S. Inflation Hits 39-Year High of 7%, Sets Stage for Fed Hike

Canada's inflation rate is roughly half right now. They have more room to maneuver than the US.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Canada's inflation rate is roughly half right now. They have more room to maneuver than the US.

If you think those figures are accurate I guess....

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If you think those figures are accurate I guess....

But you take the US information at face value? Pick a lane.

[Wigs]

I'd generally trust numbers from Canada over the US, we're 9-10x smaller in population and data scientists seem to get treated with more respect...

...unless it's a situation where the government in power tries to do away with the long form census and the head guy at StatCan that felt compelled to resign a number of years back.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If you think those figures are accurate I guess....

why wouldn't they be? Please, elaborate on how you have better access to data than friggen Statistics Canada. They have literally teams of people measuring inflation.

And sure as heck don't give me some anecdote about how chicken has increased by more than 4% this year.

Also - it's important to remember that inflation is measured as an average of all Canadians - many experience higher inflation and many experience lower depending on consumer habits, income levels, etc. If you are a meat-eating renter hoping to enter the housing market in the next 12 months who drives 50,000km a year, yea, your inflation might be a bit higher than someone who only eats veggies, has owned their home for years, and walks to work. With inflation racking up higher this year, the acute ends of this spread are feeling it a lot more than normal. Doesn't mean the average is wrong.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

But you take the US information at face value? Pick a lane.

"I believe the numbers that fit my narrative, is whatnext's MO"

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

But you take the US information at face value? Pick a lane.

Here you go. First, the official rate isn't "half the USA's" second the methodology is questioned by reliable sources.

Why Canada’s inflation rate is likely much higher than reported
MATT LUNDY ECONOMICS REPORTER
PUBLISHED DECEMBER 16, 2021

Canada’s annual inflation rate hit 4.7 per cent in November, the highest increase since 1991. A prominent voice on Bay Street thinks the actual inflation rate is much higher.

After Wednesday’s inflation report, Derek Holt published a scathing critique of Statistics Canada, the agency that produces the numbers. Mr. Holt, the head of capital market economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, wrote that investors are getting “fake data on what’s really going on with Canadian inflation.”

The true rate? It’s likely around 6 per cent, Mr. Holt said – closing most of the gap with the U.S., where inflation jumped to a near 40-year high of 6.8 per cent.

His argument centres on a key omission in Canada’s report: used cars. Statscan doesn’t track prices for used vehicles, a major source of inflationary pressure over the COVID-19 pandemic.....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business...ate-is-likely-much-higher-than-reported/


Canada’s food inflation figures are wrong, critics say — mainly because just three grocers supply the data
Statistics Canada partners with just three chains to collect data on food inflation rates, and due to ‘corporate confidentiality,’ you can’t know who they are.
By Paul Webster Special to the Star
Sat., Oct. 23, 2021

Every week, Melanie Morrison gathers data on the prices charged by Canadian grocers for tens of thousands of products.

But these days, Morrison, who runs a company based in Saskatoon called BetterCart Analytics, is mostly interested in the price of just three of them: evaporated milk, peanut butter and plain old butter.

Based on the data she’s collected on these three products, Morrison is convinced that Statistics Canada’s efforts to track food price inflation data may require a big rethink.

Poor data collection on food prices means Canadians may be finding it much harder to put food on the table than the federal government is acknowledging, after all.

Take the federal agency’s own findings, Morrison said. In September 2019, Canadians paid an average of $2.82 for 500 grams of peanut butter, according to Statistics Canada.

In September 2020, that price had dropped to $2.69. And by September 2021, it was back at $2.82.

“I don’t see this in my data,” said Morrison. “We see a range from $3.39 to $5.59 in the current price. And at the highest, we see up to $9.99.”...

https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/10...use-the-big-grocers-supply-the-data.html