California High Speed Rail Thread

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

For all of CAHSR's flaws, I'm not sure Texas HSR is being run much better.

The Texas line won't be transformative. It's going to be an alternative to flying or driving between Point A and Point B and nothing more. Its one midpoint station won't be in a town center.

The failed Ohio HSR plan from the early 1980s was a bigger project than what Texas Central is planning right now. The Ohio line was going to serve the downtowns of each of the 3C's cities, and use extensive viaducts and at least one major tunnel to do so. Hard to believe, but in 1980, Dallas and Houston had only recently surpassed Cleveland and Cincinnati in size.

[craigs]

Someone mentioned the Palmdale to Los Angeles corridor, and I just traveled most of that today by car. It is challenging terrain, to say the least, and unlike anything that engineers of a HSR railroad between Dallas and Houston will ever need to worry about. The relevant differences in terrain should have been one of those numerated items, because it is certainly salient to the discussion.

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The Texas line won't be transformative. It's going to be an alternative to flying or driving between Point A and Point B and nothing more. Its one midpoint station won't be in a town center.

The failed Ohio HSR plan from the early 1980s was a bigger project than what Texas Central is planning right now. The Ohio line was going to serve the downtowns of each of the 3C's cities, and use extensive viaducts and at least one major tunnel to do so. Hard to believe, but in 1980, Dallas and Houston had only recently surpassed Cleveland and Cincinnati in size.

The "transformative" part of Texas HSR has nothing to do with the physical construction or design of the HSR line. The idea is to show that the private sector could construct transportation infrastructure if that evil government would just get out of the way, and build it faster, cheaper, and without taxpayer funds.

What we've ended up with is a project that is:

-moving slower than CAHSR (Texas Central founded 2008 with zero track laid vs CAHSR started in 2008 with 119 miles under construction)

-just as expensive per mile (~$30B for 240 miles vs ~69-99B for 520 miles)

-requires taxpayer funds to get started (~$12B, although Texas Central says it will pay this back eventually. Interestingly this is almost the same as CAHSR's current funding minus cap and trade*)

*~$12.4B: $9B from Prop 1A, $2.5B from ARRA, and ~0.9B from HUD.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

the project needs a $12 billion dollar loan from the federal government

That does, indeed, make Texas Central not privately financed.

[SFBruin]

To me, the Texas and CA projects have each done the opposite things well.

CA has done a good job of securing funding and beginning construction. Texas has done a good job of hiring outside expertise.

I feel like the outcome of this is that there is going to be a lot of whining in CA, but it will get done (in 2040), and the Texas project won't get finished, but not much money will have been spent.

[arkitect13]

Ultimately i think brightline has the best chances of really setting the standards for hsr in the U.S. They have the most success, but we have yet to see there L.A to vegas line, if its anything like there Florida lines it should turn out pretty well.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by arkitect13

Ultimately i think brightline has the best chances of really setting the standards for hsr in the U.S. They have the most success, but we have yet to see there L.A to vegas line, if its anything like there Florida lines it should turn out pretty well.

^Brightline Florida involves no major bridges or tunnels, has single-track sections, and isn't electrified. Presently, its max speed is 79mph. It has killed over 40 people.

The Las Vegas line will have no entrance into Los Angeles until the mid-2030s at the earliest, and possibly the 2040s.

[Busy Bee]

I'm extremely hopeful for the Brightline West project though I'm less than pleased that they have apparently downgraded the level of infrastructure since the EIS was completed when it was still called DesertXpress. Time will tell if they build it right, let alone build it at all. As for Brightline Florida, it shouldn't be part of this discussion... people talk about it like hyperloop, like the free market gift from god, like that obnoxious railclub youtube guy... but its apples and oranges. Don't get me wrong, for what it is I think theyre doing a good job and I like watching those update videos on the nitty gritty details, but it's not high speed rail. It's not even clear if they are building it to the specifications required for electrification and top speeds higher than 120mph. The curve radii alone says no. Whether the segment between Tampa and Orlando along I-4 is built with HSR conversion in mind I do not know.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

they have apparently downgraded the level of infrastructure since the EIS was completed when it was still called DesertXpress.

And allow me to reiterate that I don't expect California to welcome the Las Vegas project on a red carpet because a big-time HSR connection between Las Vegas and LA Union Station will encourage more moves by LA companies to low-tax Nevada.

[caligrad]

^^^ Not necessarily if you're basing it off of the commute. The commute oddly will still be between 2-3 hours and that's not including giving yourself 30 mins each way to arrive early to the station. Throw in drunk/hungover tourists. No one will be excited about a commute to Vegas with rowdy and happy tourists and no one will be happy on the way home with drunk/hungover ones either, especially not at a 2-3 hour travel time.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I'm extremely hopeful for the Brightline West project though I'm less than pleased that they have apparently downgraded the level of infrastructure since the EIS was completed when it was still called DesertXpress. Time will tell if they build it right, let alone build it at all. As for Brightline Florida, it shouldn't be part of this discussion... people talk about it like hyperloop, like the free market gift from god, like that obnoxious railclub youtube guy... but its apples and oranges. Don't get me wrong, for what it is I think theyre doing a good job and I like watching those update videos on the nitty gritty details, but it's not high speed rail. It's not even clear if they are building it to the specifications required for electrification and top speeds higher than 120mph. The curve radii alone says no. Whether the segment between Tampa and Orlando along I-4 is built with HSR conversion in mind I do not know.

Brightline in Florida has bought 125 mph maximum speed trainsets that should last in service 25 to 30 years before needing replacement. I do not think they ever wish to run trains faster than that. They do not need to.
Tampa to Orlando by I-4 is 84 miles, here's the relative elapse times per average speeds....
84 miles / 60 mph average speeds = 84 minutes
84 miles / 80 mph average speeds = 63 minutes
84 miles / 100 mph average speeds = 50 minutes
84 miles / 120 mph average speeds = 42 minutes
And assuming HSR trains were bought and used on this segment
84 miles / 140 mph average speeds = 36 minutes
84 miles / 160 mph average speeds = 31.5 minutes
84 miles / 180 mph average speeds = 28 minutes
As the trains go faster, did you note how the difference in time savings per 20 mph increase speeds dropped. What is the sweet spot for elapse time for most passengers? Then consider the major destination on this extension will be Disney World, just 17 miles away from Orlando's Airport.
17 miles / 60 mph average speeds = 17 minutes
17 miles /120 mph average speeds = 8.5 minutes
17 miles / 180 mph average speeds = 5 minutes, 40 seconds

IMHO, I do not see the need for that market for trains going faster than 125 mph....

LA to LV is an entirely different matter because the distance between the major destinations is far greater than 84 or 17 miles.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by caligrad

^^^ Not necessarily if you're basing it off of the commute. The commute oddly will still be between 2-3 hours and that's not including giving yourself 30 mins each way to arrive early to the station. Throw in drunk/hungover tourists. No one will be excited about a commute to Vegas with rowdy and happy tourists and no one will be happy on the way home with drunk/hungover ones either, especially not at a 2-3 hour travel time.

I didn't mean to suggest that people would commute daily. I am asserting that the appearance of a 90-minute train ride to Los Angeles leaving the strip every 20 minutes will make the decision to move to Las Vegas more likely for many people and many companies.

Changes to media technology and communications has already cost Hollywood some of its dominance. Cloud-based editing is now a thing, which has raised the potential of secondary production cities like tiny Knoxville, TN, which has been a post-production center since TNN/CNN started in Atlanta in the 1980s.

Atlanta, of course, has been a major film and TV production center for over 30 years, and a new studio complex was just announced this week in Nashville. These new studios are nearly immune to industry union labor rules. Not sure why one hasn't been built yet in Las Vegas but that day is coming.

[numble]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

And allow me to reiterate that I don't expect California to welcome the Las Vegas project on a red carpet because a big-time HSR connection between Las Vegas and LA Union Station will encourage more moves by LA companies to low-tax Nevada.

California already gave Brightline the ability to raise $4.2 billion in tax-exempt bonds to pay for the project, more than Nevada gave to the project.
https://hsrail.org/blog/xpresswest%E2%80%99s-200-mph-line-las-vegas-socal-track-break-ground-soon

And most of the ROW is owned by California, which has already signed the lease agreement to lease it to Brightline. https://www.vvng.com/caltrans-and-xpress...-for-high-speed-rail-service-along-i-15/

[Busy Bee]

In the back of my mind I keep reserving the possibility that the CHSRA understands that once Phase 1 of CHSR and Brightline West are both in operation, the LA-LV Brightline may very well be operated by and essentially part of CHSR. I'm not familiar with whether any interstate legaleez would prevent this or not. It's for this reason that I really don't want to see Brightline West build the LV line to a lesser spec that would limit the efficiencies of future operations. According to the petition or whatever they call this agreement they've made with the FRA and Caltrans allowing them to amend the original DesertXpress alignment agreements that could see shifting to the median in some sections as well as, if you can beleive it, single tracking. This should worry anyone following this project (as close as they can with the limited info coming out). There is a real risk that Brightline is trying to build this thing TOO cheap and they may very well be shooting themselves in the foot. This notion of median running without altering Caltrans interstate curve radii is a red flag that they may be entertaining running these trains much slower than advertised. They also are planning on even fewer tunnels and cuts then in the original EIS which means the grade %'s are going to get even more extreme. The last thing anyone should want to see is this thing built to a less-than global standard HSR spec.

[plutonicpanda]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

It bothers me tremendously that essentially top-notch marketing materials like these fan videos are not being produced by the Authority to maintain and further sell the public on a political commitment to the project, but instead produced by a random enthusiast doing it for no other reason but their passion and interest for little to no money outside of peripheral Patreon contributions. Why the CHSRA hasn't hired John is beyond me.

Furthermore, the CHSR project isn't like a HS2 or a new TGV line scheme where you produce a video showing how pre-existing rail service will be drastically improved by a HSR bypass. Essenitally for all intents and purposes the California project doesn't have a pre-existing service its improving upon. The existing Amtrak services are not only subpar in most ways, it's not a reality that most citizens can relate to as something they are familiar with and therefore something they can see will be dramatically improved by HSR implementation. In the case of California, this isn't "an improvement" this is a paradigm shift or at least has the potential to be. From day one the Authority should have been producing marketing materials that didn't just show 2.5 seconds of a scene with a train and a tunnel in the desert or speeding through the Fresno trench, thats fine an all, but what they should be doing is showing the average Californian how the system can be used. Show the transition between sitting in freeway traffic or hours behind the wheel through the central valley, fighting parking in cities, etc etc. Show instead a rider leaving their front door, catching a short bus ride or having a friend drop them at the front door of an ultramodern HSR station. Show them using a laptop or playing cards or talking with friends/family or even snoozing while the suckers over on the highway are falling asleep at the wheel LOL. Show them arrival in the center of town, in several cities, walking just a few hundred feet to their destination or catching public transportation or an easy pre-coordinated rideshare to a more suburban destination. There's so many things the CHSRA shoudl and could be doing to keep the public engaged and "on board" with the promise of this project. Instead most of their videos, other than the animations 10+ years old and un-updated, seem to be random flyovers of routes no longer in contention or about ironworkers and how many jobs have been created. That's fine, I'm just not sure if that's enough to keep the public excited about the big picture potential of the project and how it could transform how Californians travel.

You'd think with the budget they could afford it. Their current press just consists of a few pictures and text updates though that is better than I can say for projects that happen in Oklahoma and Texas.

I don't see how Amtrak is a serious form of transportation between LA and SF. Just use a plane, car, or Greyhound. The train is only fun if you have time to blow and want a nice cruise. I still haven't taken Amtrak along the coast yet except south to San Diego.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by electricron

IMHO, I do not see the need for that market for trains going faster than 125 mph....

California will have trains faster than that, so Florida needs to shut that system down till they get on our level. Texas too.
Sound familiar?

LA to LV is an entirely different matter because the distance between the major destinations is far greater than 84 or 17 miles.

Florida is too slow.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by plutonicpanda

Just use a plane, car, or Greyhound. The train is only fun if you have time to blow and want a nice cruise.

There is a litany of private bus operators that provide service between San Francisco and Los Angeles. These include Megabus, Bolt Bus, and many others.

They were an actually viable way to get between the two metros, as long as you didn't mind having your back hurt for a day or so at your destination.

I don't know how these businesses have fared during the, ya know, disease and all, but, assuming we get out of that, they were an at least decent option.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

There is a litany of private bus operators that provide service between San Francisco and Los Angeles. These include Megabus, Bolt Bus, and many others.

They were an actually viable way to get between the two metros, as long as you didn't mind having your back hurt for a day or so at your destination.

I don't know how these businesses have fared during the, ya know, disease and all, but, assuming we get out of that, they were an at least decent option.

I gave up on the Bakersfield Amtrak bus after traveling through one of those storms that produced mudslides in LA. The driver kept on having to take detours and just ended up in flooded/muddy surface streets.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by TWAK

I gave up on the Bakersfield Amtrak bus after traveling through one of those storms that produced mudslides in LA. The driver kept on having to take detours and just ended up in flooded/muddy surface streets.

That never happened to me.

My bus did once run out of gas, though. The driver literally said, "dammit", and then we all had to get off in the Valley somewhere.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

That never happened to me.

My bus did once run out of gas, though. The driver literally said, "dammit", and then we all had to get off in the Valley somewhere.

Oh boy do I got a story as far as the bus goes...and it basically ends up with me telling everybody to get off the bus.
The driver was compromised, either health, or lack of training, nerves, mechanical error, or something. I just don't know, because he did not respond to my commands or questions. Basically the driver could not turn the bus so he kept on hitting the curve...on a bridge. It was freaking everybody out and I had to do something, so I told everybody to get off the bus and I was lecturing him until the cops showed up. He passed the DUI test but they didn't let him drive the bus again so we had another bus pick us up.