Public Disorder & the Decline of Vancouver's Livability

[connect2source]

Michael Shellenberger describes these woke politics in his soon-to-be-released book San Fransicko and how they've destroyed west coast cities, I listened to a podcast with him today and he includes Vancouver on the list. Here's a quote from a reviewer :

"San Fransicko is a lucid lesson in how self-serving ideological fads yank progressivism into a ditch, creating misery in the name of enlightenment. Shellenberger shows us one of the keys to running a city: knowing the difference between virtue signaling and getting results." - John McWhorter, linguist, writer for The Atlantic and The New York Times, and associate professor of English and comparative literature at Columbia University

Should be a good lesson for Vancouver and provides some hope and a path forward.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Klazu

Damn, that's some straight talk - good! While a character, he is 100% correct here. It is ridiculous that authorities are afraid of a Twitter storm that is nothing to go by. Twitter is a sinking echo chamber and has never been a public forum, let alone now that you have to register to even read it. I give Twitter fools 0% weight in anything, regardless of topic.

I'm glad that some people with names and reputations are finally echoing the sentiment of us mere plebs.

What confuses is me is the offense some people take when we say the City has gone to sh*t; I take no joy in this. I complain about it because I don't want it to be sh*t.

We need to clean up our act, but for that to happen we need people to stop pretending like things are not devolving rapidly and that everyone is a victim in the DTES.

Plenty of criminals that need to be locked up. And a whole ton of people that need legitimate support.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by connect2source

Michael Shellenberger describes these woke politics in his soon-to-be-released book San Fransicko and how they've destroyed west coast cities, I listened to a podcast with him today and he includes Vancouver on the list. Here's a quote from a reviewer :

"San Fransicko is a lucid lesson in how self-serving ideological fads yank progressivism into a ditch, creating misery in the name of enlightenment. Shellenberger shows us one of the keys to running a city: knowing the difference between virtue signaling and getting results." - John McWhorter, linguist, writer for The Atlantic and The New York Times, and associate professor of English and comparative literature at Columbia University

Should be a good lesson for Vancouver and provides some hope and a path forward.

Whos podcast was he on, if you don't mind sharing?

Thanks!

[rofina]

Vancouver vandalism the 'worst ever seen' by West End shopowner

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news...he-worst-ever-seen-by-west-end-shopowner

John Clerides has run a wine shop on Davie Street in Vancouver’s West End since 1977, but says he has never before seen the level of crime in the area as what has been taking place in recent months, during which thieves smashed his store window and stole his delivery e-bike.

This is what so many of us have been saying for a good 2-3 years. The City is out of control. Call it what it is. If you cant admit you have a problem you cant solve it.

“And some of (the incidents) are just pure crime,” he said. “There’s real crime out there and we can’t hide from it. Sometimes you have to attack it.”

This is once again the nuance some of us have been trying to communicate. There is clearly a large group of people that needs medical and mental health help, likely on a permanent basis. That's fact.

But there is also a large criminal contingent that's taking advantage of the chaos in the DTES. Jail these people. Take them off the streets. This isn't rocket science, I think most capable adults can tell the difference between someone who is in need of help and someone who is a career criminal.

Vancouver police spokesman Sgt. Steve Addison said providing statistics about crime trends in some areas isn’t always accurate because vandalism without theft is classified as mischief, such as turning over a mailbox.

Crime has been reclassified. Its easy to say that crime is going down when shoplifting is no longer a crime. Glad to hear this being reported on finally, years later.

Plus, he said police know such crimes are underreported because “people are telling us (that) everyday.”

And the final puzzle piece for all the statistics loving folk here; once again, now even the police concede that crime stats are low because people have given up on reporting.

This too is something that I have posted, and similarly called a conspiracy theorist because backwards lookin stats say otherwise. A lot of stats always thrown around to tell us that what we see and smell daily isn't true.

All of you advocating for the current approach and staunchly defending it; you have immeasurable human suffering on your hands and I hope you lose sleep over it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by rofina

And the final puzzle piece for all the statistics loving folk here; once again, now even the police concede that crime stats are low because people have given up on reporting.

This is the problem though. Without reporting, it's all anecdotes. How are you going to convince people otherwise?

[Alex Mackinnon]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

This is the problem though. Without reporting, it's all anecdotes. How are you going to convince people otherwise?

It's not hard even with inaccurate stats. I used to have maybe one incident a year that I'd report. I had like 8-10 reportable incidents since the pandemic started. I reported maybe the first 5 post-pandemic without so much as a email response from the VPD system. After those, well it's freaking pointless so I stopped.

You don't need statistics when your windows get rattled by propane explosions, or regularly catch people trying to rob you to know a place is getting worse.

I gave up and moved to Mount Pleasant. Because screw getting robbed, having my car broken into, having my motorcycle get tagged, having people case my house, etc. I had some other changes in my life, but I wasn't about to convince my partner to move into a neighbourhood where she feels unsafe when I felt increasingly unsafe.

You don't need stats to see how screwed up Chinatown and the DTES is getting. It's plainly visible. Just go on streetview, Google added a feature a year-or-two ago where you can go through historical photo sets. It's really obvious when you look at it. Most areas have from about 2007 forwards.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

This is the problem though. Without reporting, it's all anecdotes. How are you going to convince people otherwise?

I don't mean to be flippant and not just directed at you specifically; but open your eyes.

This is not a niche issue, anyone who lives Downtown, works Downtown, spends time Downtown would literally have to be blind to not see the unbelievable deterioration in the public realm over the last 8 years or so.

Further, as I have stated personally here, if any of the folks who are so quick to rapid fire stats and proclaim "all is well!" actually took the time to get personally involved on the civic/community level they would know that folks have been so desperate for so long that the non reporting issue started years ago.

This is what I find so upsetting here. I really wish the 1984 references weren't so played out, but its true, were constantly being told "all is well look at the stats" and being asked to ignore the very reality our own eyes see outside our door steps.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by rofina

[SIZE="3"]And the final puzzle piece for all the statistics loving folk here; once again, now even the police concede that crime stats are low because people have given up on reporting.

This too is something that I have posted, and similarly called a conspiracy theorist because backwards lookin stats say otherwise. A lot of stats always thrown around to tell us that what we see and smell daily isn't true.

I honestly don't understand. I understand that people feel like there's a massive crimewave in downtown Vancouver, and I also understand that people are under-reporting crimes, and that this has been building gradually for some time.

But how do you explain the extreme drop over a two month period between February and April of 2020? Like, as people "get used" to crimes and stop reporting them, if that was the actual cause of the stats showing what they currently do, then the stats would gradually be going down over time, wouldn't they? They wouldn't have a massive and sudden drop like that. People in the downtown core all of a sudden decided to stop reporting crimes all at the same time?

I'm not saying "ah just look at the stats", I'm saying "explain the stats in a way that makes sense", because "people underreport crimes" doesn't make sense as a way of explaining the apparent dichotomy between the statistics and the anecdotes.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

I honestly don't understand. I understand that people feel like there's a massive crimewave in downtown Vancouver, and I also understand that people are under-reporting crimes, and that this has been building gradually for some time.

But how do you explain the extreme drop over a two month period between February and April of 2020? Like, as people "get used" to crimes and stop reporting them, if that was the actual cause of the stats showing what they currently do, then the stats would gradually be going down over time, wouldn't they? They wouldn't have a massive and sudden drop like that. People in the downtown core all of a sudden decided to stop reporting crimes all at the same time?

I'm not saying "ah just look at the stats", I'm saying "explain the stats in a way that makes sense", because "people underreport crimes" doesn't make sense as a way of explaining the apparent dichotomy between the statistics and the anecdotes.

Explain why there was no big drop on that chart under Vehicle Accident stats after march 2020 when there was a huge drop in cars on the road.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Explain why there was no big drop on that chart under Vehicle Accident stats after march 2020 when there was a huge drop in cars on the road.

Weren't there stories in mid 2020 about how with fewer cars on the road, people were starting to drive more recklessly?

[Prometheus]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

But how do you explain the extreme drop over a two month period between February and April of 2020?

This is what the VPD had to say about crime and its statistics during the first six months of 2020:


Crime significantly up in several Vancouver neighbourhoods: VPD


Property and violent crime were significantly up in several Vancouver neighbourhoods between January and June, the Vancouver police reported Thursday.

Deputy Chief Const. Howard Chow says that during the pandemic the number of commercial break-and-enters rose, especially in Chinatown, the West End, Yaletown and Strathcona. During the first six months of this year, the number of break-ins to businesses and other commercial properties was up 47.9 per cent in Vancouver from the same period last year.

“Although Vancouver residents did their best to stay home and stop the spread of COVID, VPD officers could not do the same as crime continued,” Chow said during a news conference in Vancouver on Thursday. “We know that many of these break-ins happened because businesses were closed and unstaffed for several weeks. Chronic property offenders saw this as a golden opportunity.”

Although commercial break-and-enters were up, overall property crime was down by 12.9 per cent because of a significant decrease in auto theft as a result of fewer cars being parked on the streets, Chow said.

Violent crime increased by 5.2 per cent driven by an increase in the number of serious assaults, said Chow.

“I’m so concerned about the increase in violence and serious crimes and street disorder in some of the neighbourhoods like Strathcona, Yaletown, Chinatown and the West End,” he said.
In the downtown area to the end of July, thefts had gone up 36 per cent, calls for weapons were up 11 per cent and, in Yaletown, commercial break-and-enters spiked 58 per cent.

Assaults were up 16 per cent and, in Strathcona, where a tent city has grown to hundreds of tents in the park, weapons calls were up 50 per cent.

In Chinatown, violent crime was up 17 per cent and commercial break-ins were up 60 per cent compared with this period last year.

“Sometimes statistics don’t always show the whole picture because people don’t always call police,” said Chow, who added that the Vancouver police has added more police officers to patrol the areas that have been hardest hit by crime.

Chow added there has been an uptick in the number of guns seized, both replica and real ones, including a loaded rifle that was found in a bag in an alley in Strathcona.

He said, in Yaletown, police have been called out 450 times to the areas of the hotels where homeless people were given shelter because of the pandemic. Chow said that compares with 45 calls in Yaletown during the same period.

“This is contributing to our increase in crime stats,” he said.

Source: https://vancouversun.com/news/crime-significantly-up-in-several-vancouver-neighbourhoods-vpd

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Explain why there was no big drop on that chart under Vehicle Accident stats after march 2020 when there was a huge drop in cars on the road.

So you can't explain it, instead you have to resort to whataboutism.

[Skook]

Originally Posted by rofina

Whos podcast was he on, if you don't mind sharing?

Thanks!

Shellenberger was on Rogan. Makes a solid case that the 'housing first' approach we've been using in Vancouver has been a disaster everywhere.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by connect2source

Michael Shellenberger describes these woke politics in his soon-to-be-released book San Fransicko and how they've destroyed west coast cities, I listened to a podcast with him today and he includes Vancouver on the list. Here's a quote from a reviewer :

"San Fransicko is a lucid lesson in how self-serving ideological fads yank progressivism into a ditch, creating misery in the name of enlightenment. Shellenberger shows us one of the keys to running a city: knowing the difference between virtue signaling and getting results." - John McWhorter, linguist, writer for The Atlantic and The New York Times, and associate professor of English and comparative literature at Columbia University

Should be a good lesson for Vancouver and provides some hope and a path forward.

Was watching some clips of that on YouTube, very interesting stuff, I want to hear the whole podcast.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by connect2source

Michael Shellenberger describes these woke politics in his soon-to-be-released book San Fransicko and how they've destroyed west coast cities, I listened to a podcast with him today and he includes Vancouver on the list.

yeah, i don't think it's that easy

There are many contributors to the problem. The horrors of childhood trauma and poverty, mental illness and chronic drug abuse surely add to the likelihood that someone lives on the streets. But Nan Roman, president of the National Alliance to End Homelessness, says the primary cause of the crisis is simple: Housing has gotten way too scarce and expensive.

A few years ago, a team of economists at Zillow found that once cities cross a threshold where the typical resident must spend more than a third of their income on housing, homelessness begins to spike rapidly. When incomes don't keep pace with the cost of rent, a cascade effect ripples through the housing market: High-income folks start renting places that middle-income folks used to rent, middle-income people start renting places that low-income folks used to rent, and low-income folks are left scrambling.

Homelessness wasn't always this bad. "In the 1970s, there was an adequate supply of affordable units for every low-income household that needed one — and we really didn't have homelessness," Roman says.

By the 1980s, homelessness emerged as a chronic issue. There were many factors, including the federal government deciding to slash the budget for affordable housing. By then the California state government had significantly cut taxes and gutted social programs, including for state-funded mental institutions, resulting in thousands of people with mental illnesses and other difficulties struggling to make it on their own.

Yet the core reason for the crisis boils down to supply and demand for housing. As regions like the San Francisco Bay Area became magnets for highly paid professionals in the computer-driven economy, they failed to build enough new units to keep up with demand.

....

What's different than, say, New York?

Booming cities in other states have arguably done a better job than San Francisco and Los Angeles by at least providing a bandage for the gushing wound. New York City, for example, has a "right to shelter" and a sprawling shelter system that helps people sleep indoors every night. New York City has a rate of homelessness similar to San Francisco and LA, but it has a different character.

As of January 2020, 72% of homeless Californians were unsheltered. Compare that to New York state, where only 5% are unsheltered. The result is a city where homelessness, while still troubling, is also less in-your-face. Warmer weather on the West Coast, which may alter thinking about the cruelty of allowing people to sleep outdoors, could play a role in the difference, but New York has a "right to shelter" because of a 1979 court decision that interpreted the state constitution to give New Yorkers this right.

Instead of building a big system of shelters, California's cities have taken a more lackadaisical approach that the UC San Diego sociologist Neil Gong calls "tolerant containment" — basically shoeing the unhoused to certain neighborhoods of squalor such as San Francisco's Tenderloin or Los Angeles' Skid Row, and then selectively prosecuting them for living on the streets.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/...fronting-californias-homelessness-crisis

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by rofina

I don't mean to be flippant and not just directed at you specifically; but open your eyes.

This is not a niche issue, anyone who lives Downtown, works Downtown, spends time Downtown would literally have to be blind to not see the unbelievable deterioration in the public realm over the last 8 years or so.

I live near Olympic Village and visit downtown on a semi-regular basis. I do find it difficult to separate fact from social media panic on this issue.

Are things bad? yes.

Are they getting worse? unclear.

I think there is some historical bias in pretending that say, 10 years ago, things were great. There has always been a homeless problem, a drug problem.

I have dealt with numerous security issues with my building management and other local buildings in the area. It's been very steady over the past ~5 years. Not better, not worse.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Explain why there was no big drop on that chart under Vehicle Accident stats after march 2020 when there was a huge drop in cars on the road.

Why did we all get ICBC rebates then?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Prometheus

This is what the VPD had to say about crime and its statistics during the first six months of 2020:

And here's their stats for 2019-2020, massively down everywhere:

https://vpd.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/district-2020-year-end.pdf

Check their stats site for whatever other metrics you like.

Personally, I think crime was down just because there was so much less human interaction during 2020, which leads to all kinds of "misunderstandings" and whatever else might lead to crime. People were in their homes, less targets for B&E and theft.

That said, I don't think the situation is improving at all, and there's obviously a big problem to deal with.

I guess we'll see what the majority thinks in about a year when we have another civic election.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I have dealt with numerous security issues with my building management and other local buildings in the area. It's been very steady over the past ~5 years. Not better, not worse.

Yes, I manage a business downtown and while there were a few times during the pandemic that I felt like things were getting worse, that has levelled off. We basically have one individual who accounts for 95% of our problems.

[Changing City]

@MIPS

Here's an interesting one the CBC posted. Seems these problems aren't just in the big city.

Kamloops restaurant forced to close due to vandalism in neighbourhood

Cynthia Li co-owned a fairly successful restaurant in Kamloops, B.C., for about seven years, but it has been closed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

And though she wanted to reopen Sunmei Fusion Cuisine and Bubble Tea restaurant on 413 Tranquille Road when restrictions were lifted earlier this year, she said she ultimately decided not to because of continuing vandalism and street crimes in Kamloops' North Shore neighbourhood.

"This happened and happened again, and it's just very discouraging [for us] to continue," Li told CBC's Jenifer Norwell in front of her shuttered restaurant.

"It's at the front of the restaurant right now — some leftover food, and there's a table and umbrella. There [are] chairs and a lot of clothes," she said. "Just a mess. A lot of garbage."

Derelict buildings in Kamloops shopping district frustrate business association
Li said she believes people seeking help from The Loop Community Resource Centre next door, who are living with homelessness, are behind the vandalism and loitering, which have been issues troubling other businesses in the North Shore.

She said she appreciates The Loop for its work but wishes it didn't disrupt her business.

"It's a good thing that they help the homeless people, but I guess [they] need to be organized," she said.

"Maybe the city can do something to help the homeless people," she added. "They need a place to stay ... instead of staying at the front of our restaurant or our business."