Federal Government & Politics | Election 2021 FORUM POLL

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

(For some reason Acadians don't get or give this as much.)

Probably because Quebecois view Acadians as harmless and charming rubes and hicks rather than as the aforementioned vendus and traitors.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Probably because Quebecois view Acadians as harmless and charming rubes and hicks rather than as the aforementioned vendus and traitors.

It's sometimes one "part" that, and sometimes another "part" which is that they are noble survivors who have a unique and interesting culture.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Niki Ashton?

[JHikka]

Ashton's name is always parroted around but I don't think she's going to be any improvement over Singh or anyone else that could enter the fray. Non-starter.

[esquire]

Ashton is kind of like the NDP's Poilievre. Someone who has their place with the party's hardcore ranks but not really someone you want to trot out in public to sway swing voters. She'll run again I'm sure, but the NDP would be wise to steer clear.

That said, I'm sure there are some capable future leaders waiting in the wings of the NDP's ranks. The federal and provincial wings are big organizations and only a small handful of people have national profiles... they are hardly the only pool of candidates to draw from.

[O-tacular]

Speaking of Poilievre I heard his name amongst others mentioned on the news when discussing a possible replacement for O'Toole. I say go for it! The Cons will be unelectable.

[hipster duck]

The thing is that even if Niki Ashton became the leader of the NDP and Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the CPC, I think ridings and battle lines have become so hardened that we'd more or less see the same electoral map we did on Monday.

Some ridings would flip, but not because the electorate finds the leader or the platforms of a certain party so odious.

It's the Canadian version of how there are clear blue states, and clear red states, and no matter how bad the presidential candidate on either side, it boils down to a few swing states going +/- 2% on either side and tipping the electoral college.

Even if you're a fan of permanent Liberal minority governments basically formed by the GTA + Montreal, this doesn't bode well for our democracy.

[flar]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Speaking of Poilievre I heard his name amongst others mentioned on the news when discussing a possible replacement for O'Toole. I say go for it! The Cons will be unelectable.

Not worth the risk. Poilievre is worse than Kenney.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Speaking of Poilievre I heard his name amongst others mentioned on the news when discussing a possible replacement for O'Toole. I say go for it! The Cons will be unelectable.

Democrats said the same thing about Trump.

Honestly, if it is Poilievre against Freeland, I can see Poilievre actually winning.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Speaking of Poilievre I heard his name amongst others mentioned on the news when discussing a possible replacement for O'Toole. I say go for it! The Cons will be unelectable.

If the Cons are really going to turf O'Toole because he campaigned further towards the middle than the base liked, then there's no hope for the party. No far-right party will hold power in Canada for the foreseeable future.

To be honest, I did not like him much when he was chosen as the Con leader, but thought he was more palatable as a potential PM once he made his shift to the left.

Time for election reform that was promised to us a few elections ago (was it two, or was it three? I've lost track... ).

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Honestly, if it is Poilievre against Freeland, I can see Poilievre actually winning.

I agree. Freeland is vulnerable. She is essentially Canada's Hilliary Clinton.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Democrats said the same thing about Trump.

Honestly, if it is Poilievre against Freeland, I can see Poilievre actually winning.

That's a scary prospect. Ugh I hope not. I personally find O'Toole to be the most palatable CPC leader this generation but don't trust him further than I could throw him. That said, if he can sustain moving the party further to the centre it won't be a disaster if they do win after climate change policies and $10 / day childcare and child benefits have been further entrenched. Poilievre is a partisan wingnut who would probably undo tons of progress even if there were penalties attached out of ideological hatred. O'Toole at least seems to inhabit reality.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

That said, I'm sure there are some capable future leaders waiting in the wings of the NDP's ranks.

The best leaders aren't necessarily "in the NDP's ranks". For example, the guy who achieved the second best showing in the party's history was a Liberal minister...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

The thing is that even if Niki Ashton became the leader of the NDP and Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the CPC, I think ridings and battle lines have become so hardened that we'd more or less see the same electoral map we did on Monday.

Some ridings would flip, but not because the electorate finds the leader or the platforms of a certain party so odious.

It's the Canadian version of how there are clear blue states, and clear red states, and no matter how bad the presidential candidate on either side, it boils down to a few swing states going +/- 2% on either side and tipping the electoral college.

Even if you're a fan of permanent Liberal minority governments basically formed by the GTA + Montreal, this doesn't bode well for our democracy.

Very true. There are tons of stronghold ridings where the outcome is already set in stone, no matter how disliked the party leader is.

That said, I just realized the Libs' floor is lower than one'd think (Ignatieff) but then, that was one decade ago, and polarization is worse now. A potted plant would likely get at least 100 seats for the Natural Governing Party these days.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

Ashton is kind of like the NDP's Poilievre. Someone who has their place with the party's hardcore ranks but not really someone you want to trot out in public to sway swing voters. She'll run again I'm sure, but the NDP would be wise to steer clear.

Agreed, though I think the NDP has a much lower floor, and could be driven into oblivion by the wrong leader. By contrast, in the CPC, if they pick a nut as their leader, they'll still do well in the Prairies and rural areas. In some regions, they'll even do better with a nut at the helm than with a reasonable centrist. (See results for Scheer vs O'Toole.) I don't think that's true of the NDP.

It's not an existential threat for the CPC at all; if they choose a nut, they'll be stuck on the Opposition benches, but that's it.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by lio45

The best leaders aren't necessarily "in the NDP's ranks". For example, the guy who achieved the second best showing in the party's history was a Liberal minister...

Fair, as the provincial parties don't always line up squarely with federal ones. e.g. there could be future CPC stars in the BC Liberal Party, or as you point out, NDP stars in the Quebec Liberals.

But the point is that there people waiting in the wings to step up as future leaders (if not the actual party leader) that we don't know about. That's why I never put much stock in the "oh yeah, well if he/she leaves, who will replace them?" conversation whether it's about party leaders or sports coaches. There is always a next person up ready to take that step.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Time for election reform that was promised to us a few elections ago (was it two, or was it three? I've lost track... ).

Two elections ago. (I thought it was three for a second, I woke up with the vague feeling we'd had an election, but then I checked the composition of Parliament and decided it must have been a dream.)

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by esquire

Fair, as the provincial parties don't always line up squarely with federal ones. e.g. there could be future CPC stars in the BC Liberal Party, or as you point out, NDP stars in the Quebec Liberals.

But the point is that there people waiting in the wings to step up as future leaders (if not the actual party leader) that we don't know about. That's why I never put much stock in the "oh yeah, well if he/she leaves, who will replace them?" conversation whether it's about party leaders or sports coaches. There is always a next person up ready to take that step.

Adroitly or not.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by esquire

Fair, as the provincial parties don't always line up squarely with federal ones. e.g. there could be future CPC stars in the BC Liberal Party, or as you point out, NDP stars in the Quebec Liberals.

But the point is that there people waiting in the wings to step up as future leaders (if not the actual party leader) that we don't know about. That's why I never put much stock in the "oh yeah, well if he/she leaves, who will replace them?" conversation whether it's about party leaders or sports coaches. There is always a next person up ready to take that step.

That's a good point. People often limit themselves to looking for someone who already has a strong national profile (and if there's no such person at the moment, declare the search for a next leader to be hopeless), but there's tons of people who aren't known at all at the moment but who have potential.

Anyone can go from not known at all to being popular, if they have what it takes.

Jack Layton went from zero to landslide in a flash, in Quebec in 2011. He had no profile whatsoever before. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples.

Instead of people like Poilievre and Ashton, who have "national profiles" but are totally flawed as leaders, the parties would be better served picking a competent and likable person that has no profile at the moment (keywords: "at the moment"; that'll change).

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Adroitly or not.

Again a good point. "No problem if Elizabeth May leaves, someone'll inevitably show up as a replacement." You might lose two-thirds of your votes tho...