Federal Government & Politics | Election 2021 FORUM POLL - Page 16

Acajack · #**301** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 3:59 AM**

Ruth Ellen Brosseau leading in Berthier-Maskinongé by about 500 votes.

MonctonRad · #**302** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:01 AM**

On the brighter side.

1) - JT is constrained by another minority government, curbing his baser impulses.
2) - Moncton still gets it's new $700M federal fisheries and oceans research facility, and it's new $400M federal prison hospital.

Win-win...........

Acajack · #**303** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:01 AM**

Though it's also said that in most ridings you had 2000+ mail-in ballots sent out, so any riding with leads even significantly smaller than that may still be up for grabs.

JHikka · #**304** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:03 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

It can be spun either way for both parties. Meanwhile, Trudeau will be PM with a new mandate to govern, even if it involves a bit more haggling with the NDP and the Bloc, than he would have liked.

Trudeau can push LPC mandate pretty hard if he wants to - nobody has any ability to force an election any time soon.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Once the dust settles, it will be interesting to see how many seats the PPC cost the Conservatives. I’m guessing at least 10 or 12.

Just looking quickly...

Kanata-Carleton
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener South - Hespeler
Cambridge
Niagara Centre
Nipissing-Timiskaming
Nickel Belt
Sudbury...

That's assuming all PPC votes go to CPC, though, which isn't really the case.

Acajack · #**305** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:05 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamincan

Rosemary Barton: "Liberals leading in +3, that is encouraging... ugh... that *would* be encouraging..."

CBC's tracker is good: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2021/results/

I just turned to the CBC coverage for one of the only times this evening.

She was almost choking up talking about Monsef losing her riding. Seriously.

Emotionally saying stuff like "let's not forget she spent most of the early part of the campaign working on the Afghanistan file, trying to get people out safely..."

Then she was at a loss for words for a few seconds, and then said awkwardly "Anyway..." before moving on to one of her guests.

Holy cow.

kwoldtimer · #**306** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:07 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ruth Ellen Brosseau leading in Berthier-Maskinongé by about 500 votes.

Where did she fly off to this campaign?

O-tacular · #**307** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:07 AM**

Conservative pundit on Global is already whining about the carbon tax and reconnecting with the base. It’s like they never want to be elected again.

Acajack · #**308** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:11 AM**

007 sums up this election quite nicely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksfi8CAbRoI

caveat.doctor · #**309** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:12 AM**

Overall not a surprising result given the polling leading up to voting day. Glad that the programmes that finally got underway in the tail end of the last term look like they might actually now happen (e.g. national child care, VIA HFR).

Wish there was a bit more of a rebuke to the Liberals for the unnecessary election (would have preferred $600M spent on pretty much anything else) and the negative turn at the end (end of Sunny Ways); and more of a positive reinforcement for this initial shift back to the centre for the Conservatives.

CBC just went over about 6 ridings in ON where the margin of Liberal win over a Conservative (some incumbents) could have been made up by the votes for the PPC. I don't think that lends well to sustain this centrist shift in the Conservatives. Coupled with the increasingly negative campaigning, I think the election will have only continued the trend towards polarisation overall.

Also I think it's dodgy for the national broadcaster to have called the election when there were so many people still queued up to vote in Toronto and elsewhere. Would have expected a bit more "in the public interest" on the part of the CBC. Rosemarie Barton did her best to remind people still waiting "don't leave now, your vote is still important... to determine how strong of a mandate the Liberals will have". I guess it's no different from how the West has always been with the time zones, but still seems a bit inappropriate.

whatnext · #**310** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:14 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ruth Ellen Brosseau leading in Berthier-Maskinongé by about 500 votes.

Even more interesting Kevin Vuong, the Liberal candidate in Spadina-Fort York who was punted due that 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 assault charge (dropped) is winning the riding!

Nouvellecosse · #**311** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:15 AM**

How many more results can we have like this where the CPC matches or wins the popular vote while decisively losing before they start supporting some form of proportional representation? I mean sure, they'd never win another majority, but a this rate even a narrow minority seems like a challenge.

SkeggsEggs · #**312** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:19 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

How many more results can we have like this where the CPC matches or wins the popular vote while decisively losing before they start supporting some form of proportional representation? I mean sure, they'd never win another majority, but a this rate even a narrow minority seems like a challenge.

Under PR they would be outnumbered forever by the LPC and NDP. Not to mention the potential of a regional western party.

Under FPTP they only need 1 election where the LPC support is in the dumps to achieve a small majority and get through a lot of legislation.

The potential upsides of FPTP are too great to pass up for them.

flar · #**313** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:20 AM**

CPC obviously needs to expand their appeal in the GTA, as O'Toole tried. A lot of people would support a pragmatic (ie not ideological) and fiscally conservative party that stays out of social and cultural issues. Let the PPC have the right wing.

lrt's friend · #**314** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think it is remarkable that the CPC is still outpolling the LPC by 1.8%, despite the fact that the PPC accumulated 5.2% of the vote share.

The PPC vote share is inflated by anti-vaxxers, which is purely situational. Assuming the pandemic is over the next time around (God willing), some of these votes will migrate back to the CPC.

The Liberals are in trouble.

No they aren't. The PPC vote is mostly in already Conservative ridings.

Truenorth00 · #**315** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:25 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

How many more results can we have like this where the CPC matches or wins the popular vote while decisively losing before they start supporting some form of proportional representation? I mean sure, they'd never win another majority, but a this rate even a narrow minority seems like a challenge.

Will never happen. Quite a few of them would genuinely prefer to break up Canada first. See the founders of the Bloc and the Maverick Party. A long tradition of, "I'm going to take my ball and go home," when they don't get their way. These are folks for whom offering a climate plan was like pulling teeth. Any change in voting is going to go over like a lead balloon.

flar · #**316** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:25 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ruth Ellen Brosseau leading in Berthier-Maskinongé by about 500 votes.

She was a promising MP, I was a bit sad she lost in 2019, hope she wins this time

Loco101 · #**317** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:27 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think it is remarkable that the CPC is still outpolling the LPC by 1.8%, despite the fact that the PPC accumulated 5.2% of the vote share.

The PPC vote share is inflated by anti-vaxxers, which is purely situational. Assuming the pandemic is over the next time around (God willing), some of these votes will migrate back to the CPC.

The Liberals are in trouble.

Quite a bit of the PPC vote came from the NDP in some areas including where I live. Some likely came from previous Green supporters as well. But it was anti-vaxxers who really boosted the PPC this time.

Truenorth00 · #**318** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:29 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by flar

CPC obviously needs to expand their appeal in the GTA, as O'Toole tried. A lot of people would support a pragmatic (ie not ideological) and fiscally conservative party that stays out of social and cultural issues. Let the PPC have the right wing.

Suburbanites and women. That's the demographic gaps stopping them from winning power. O'Toole was sort of trying with both. But his own caucus cut him off at the knees with that abortion vote on women. And then he literally turned every suburban soccer mom against him demurring on vaccine mandates and 🞵🞵🞵 control.

Nouvellecosse · #**319** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:32 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loco101

Quite a bit of the PPC vote came from the NDP in some areas including where I live. Some likely came from previous Green supporters as well. But it was anti-vaxxers who really boosted the PPC this time.

Hmm, that's quite an interesting transition. The NDP and Greens are the only fed or provincial parties I've ever voted for, yet somehow it never occurred to me to consider the PPC.

Acajack · #**320** Posted **Sep 21, 2021, 4:34 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

How many more results can we have like this where the CPC matches or wins the popular vote while decisively losing before they start supporting some form of proportional representation? I mean sure, they'd never win another majority, but a this rate even a narrow minority seems like a challenge.

I also keep asking myself if a voting system that repeatedly denies government to the party with the most votes will be sustainable in the future, but perhaps the other posters have a point.