The US Census Bureau thread

[edale]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Fix boundaries. The worst cases are Pittsburgh and Buffalo and they interrupted their decades decline now. Detroit and Cleveland with ups and downs and St. Louis only one negative.

Those are not MSA figures. Perhaps CSA?

Here is how Ohio's MSAs look after the 2020 census:

1) Cincinnati: 2,256,884 +119,217
2) Columbus: 2,138,926 +236,952
3) Cleveland: 2,088,251 +11,011 (the MSA grew again in 2020 after losing in 2010)
4) Dayton: 814,049 +14,817
5) Akron: 702,219 -981
6) Toledo: 646,604 -4,825
7) Youngstown: 541,243 -24,530
8) Canton: 401,574 -2,848

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Edit: Nice work by Yuri. Using his numbers:

Pittsburgh: -14.4%
Buffalo: -13.5%
Cleveland: -8.0%
Detroit: -0.6%

Thank you, ChiSox! Ironically, Detroit and Cleveland city proper seem to have suffered more than Pittsburgh or Buffalo, or at least that's the general impression.

On the other hand, their metropolitan areas held on quite well. Detroit, for instance, peaked only in 2000 and keeping the pace, might surpassed it within few years.

Originally Posted by Handro

I'm a tiny bit surprised by Baltimore's continued decline in light of DC's continued growth. Is it possible that sometime soon DC's growth+housing costs could start to benefit Baltimore? I'm not really familiar with the mid-Atlantic region.

If I remember correctly, before the 2010 Census numbers being released, there were talks Baltimore might had grown in that decade and once more they've disappointed, missing the whole US urban boom from the past 20 years. It's a shame.

[ChiSoxRox]

Another sign of how well this Census was for cities, is that this is the first Census in 70 years to have all of the top five, let alone top 25, grow.

Highest ranked city to decline in each census:

1950 - #37 Jersey City
1960 - #1 NYC
1970 - #2 Chicago
1980 - #1 NYC
1990 - #3 Chicago
2000 - #5 Philadelphia
2010 - #3 Chicago
2020 - #27 Detroit

[C.]

Looking forward to this update: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population_density

city,density per/mile in 2010
Guttenberg 57,116.0
Union City 51,810.1
Hoboken 39,066.4
New York City 27,016.3

[C.]

Just for fun...

Population Densities (per sq/mile) for select cities

2010
Hoboken 39,066.4
New York City 27,016.3
San Francisco 17,246.4
Jersey City 16,093.7


2020
Hoboken 47,202.3
New York City 29,095.1
Jersey City 19,601.1
San Francisco 18,718.5

[craigs]

I started tallying Census tracts with 20,000+ ppsm in Los Angeles County. I started local, and here's what I've got so far:

Combined population living in Census tracts of 20,000+ ppsm in Los Angeles County:

• San Fernando Valley: 210,908

That includes two such tracts in nearby Sunland-Tujunga.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

On the other hand, Flint crashed well below the 100k mark. In the next few days I'll compile a similar list for any cities ever over 50k.

Highland Park, MI has to be among the "leaders".

Highland Park had 53k residents in 1930. In 2020, it has 8,900 residents.

And both Flint, MI and Saginaw, MI had a larger population in 1910.

[Steely Dan]

These usual suspects will also be up there:

East St. Louis:
1950 - 82,366
2020 - 18,469
-77.6%


Gary:
1960 - 178,320
2020 - 69,093
-61.3%

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Camelback

Ah Ok, so it seems Cincy bottomed out and is on the rebound now, or at least we hope so.

Also, yeah, I'm confused how (metro) Phoenix seemed to come in lower than what was expected given what's going on, on the ground all over the Valley.

My guess is that Phoenix's growth has accelerated during the later part of the decade, so its growth in the last 3-5 years is much probably higher than the previous five years. I read somewhere that it had the highest inbound migration of all metro areas in 2020. I think its growth acceleration mirrors its housing cost acceleration - earlier in the decade the Northwest cities of Seattle and Portland had the highest price increases, but in the last 2-3 years Phoenix has had the highest increases (along with Las Vegas). I would not be surprised if Phoenix and Las Vegas have the higher growth rates than Dallas and Houston during the next decade.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Highland Park, MI has to be among the "leaders".

Highland Park had 53k residents in 1930. In 2020, it has 8,900 residents.

And both Flint, MI and Saginaw, MI had a larger population in 1910.

I found the list I made with the 2015 estimates. The top 6 went Highland Park, Johnstown, PA, East St. Louis, McKeesport, PA, Detroit, St. Louis.

Two pages later in that thread were constant area MSA calculations. For over 500k: Scranton, Youngstown, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland. However. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is growing again, so Youngstown might have fallen below it.

[proghousehead]

Originally Posted by C.

Just for fun...

Population Densities (per sq/mile) for select cities

2010
Hoboken 39,066.4
New York City 27,016.3
San Francisco 17,246.4
Jersey City 16,093.7


2020
Hoboken 47,202.3
New York City 29,095.1
Jersey City 19,601.1
San Francisco 18,718.5

Man is NYC an outlier. To maintain 29k/sq mile for a consistent 302 square miles is insane. Further impressive that this total
Includes Staten Island, which although being the “suburban” part of the city, has a density on par with LA. Truly anomalous in the country.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by proghousehead

Man is NYC an outlier. To maintain 29k/sq mile for a consistent 302 square miles is insane. Further impressive that this total
Includes Staten Island, which although being the “suburban” part of the city, has a density on par with LA. Truly anomalous in the country.

You could replace Staten Island with San Francisco, and SF would still be the sparsest borough!

[the urban politician]

Another city that I’m wondering about is Milwaukee.

After almost breaking even for 2010 I was hoping it would turn around, but it continued to lose population.

It’s doing far better than a Detroit or St Louis, but it does continue to trickle down decade by decade.

This despite a pretty nice urban environment with minimal decay compared to other Midwest cities, a fairly healthy downtown, moderate gentrification, new developments, its lakefront location, and of course proximity to Chicago.

When will Milwaukee start bouncing back?

[the urban politician]

Congratulations, Steely Dan!

Schaumburg climbed from 74,227 in 2010 to:

78,723

That’s a dandy 6% growth rate.

Woohoo!!!

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Another city that I’m wondering about is Milwaukee.

After almost breaking even for 2010 I was hoping it would turn around, but it continued to lose population.

It’s doing far better than a Detroit or St Louis, but it does continue to trickle down decade by decade.

This despite a pretty nice urban environment with minimal decay compared to other Midwest cities, a fairly healthy downtown, moderate gentrification, new developments, its lakefront location, and of course proximity to Chicago.

When will Milwaukee start bouncing back?

its not helped by the juggernaut which is dane county, WI.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Another city that I’m wondering about is Milwaukee.

After almost breaking even for 2010 I was hoping it would turn around, but it continued to lose population.

It’s doing far better than a Detroit or St Louis, but it does continue to trickle down decade by decade.

This despite a pretty nice urban environment with minimal decay compared to other Midwest cities, a fairly healthy downtown, moderate gentrification, new developments, its lakefront location, and of course proximity to Chicago.

When will Milwaukee start bouncing back?

Here's the Milwaukee census tract change map:



The deep blues on the northwest side of the city are 20% and even 30% declines from 2010. Those are the Harambee and North Division neighborhoods, which are overwhelmingly African American.

So it seems that while Chicago's black flight is closer to stabilizing than in past decades, Milwaukee is seeing the brunt of it.

[Steely Dan]

^ Also some significant, though slower, declines in the predominately Latino census tracts of the SW side. Probably not helped by the overall slowdown of immigration from Mexico.

And it looks like core Waukesha had it's own little "Aurora" episode.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

So Detroit is not showing a consistent, steady slowdown in its shrinkage.

Except it literally is, you just don't pay attention. These last few years of estimates showed a consistent slowing in loss and were within a margin of error. 2018 onward could easily have had small growth but we will never really know because the losses from the early decade clouds all of it.

There's no way this isn't a significant undercount. There are 280,000 residential households paying electricity bills in the city, census only counted 254,000. Even if a portion of those are home renovations or in some way unoccupied you're still looking at probably tens of thousands not counted.

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by C.

Just for fun...

Population Densities (per sq/mile) for select cities

2010
Hoboken 39,066.4
New York City 27,016.3
San Francisco 17,246.4
Jersey City 16,093.7


2020
Hoboken 47,202.3
New York City 29,095.1
Jersey City 19,601.1
San Francisco 18,718.5

What's the top 20 for 2020?

[craigs]

I'm tallying up Census tracts with population densities of 20,000+ ppsm in Los Angeles County. Right now, I've got the Valley, West Side, Hollywood, Downtown, South Central, Gateway cities, the South Bay, and Long Beach. This is tedious shit! I may wait to do more until tomorrow.

Anyway, so far:

Combined population living in Census tracts with population densities of 20,000+ ppsm in Los Angeles County (still in progress): 1,510,057

Solid!