DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

I bet your representative would get on board if the eventual developer agrees to a requirement that 90% of the residents come from the elyria swansea neighborhood and be housed for free -- she had some similar proposal for a re-zoning request in RiNo.

And the remaining 10% a multistory penthouse for her gf.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

Are newcomers really the biggest offenders, though? Most of the NIMBYs I encounter begin every sentence with "I've lived in Denver for 🞵🞵 years..." Implying that they somehow have absorbed more rights over the years than everyone else and haven't been suckling on the housing shortage teat at the expense of everyone else.

For me, in my plethora of community 'engagement' meetings, yes it's mostly newcomers. There are some of the old guard, but they are a small minority.

[The Dirt]

Interesting. Which neighborhood is this, if you don't mind me asking.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

I assume that was to me and my ranting. I'm curious about what kind of data you want -

An academic paper that relates regulation like density and zoning restrictions to higher costs? https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20536/w20536.pdf
OR maybe this one: https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.32.1.3

How about a really damning one, the number of new housing starts by state https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ (click on Annual History by State by Structure)
So you can see how there was less housing built in Colorado last year than there was in 1983. There were roughly half the people here then. That's a problem.

And what could be the source of this problem and the inspiration for my ranting? Maybe groups like https://www.facebook.com/NoHighrises/ who fought against 5 story apartments 2 miles from downtown? The Lakewood residents that were so angry about housing for the homeless possibly being built on a huge empty field that it sparked a move to pass legislation that restricts construction city-wide? The Denver city council members that will cry about how expensive it is here, but happily fight rezoning for housing and not offer other solutions? (not building anything, anywhere, ever is not a solution)

I guess I don't have a smoking 🞵🞵🞵 to blame Denver's housing problems on land-rich people fighting for their views and "stability", so feel free to write it off as sweeping, data-less generalizations!

I really freakin love it when facts go ZING! Thank You Moji for providing these easily obtainable facts that 'smart' people don't care to recognize.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

Interesting. Which neighborhood is this, if you don't mind me asking.

Every neighborhood I've attempted a variance, rezone, board of adjustment, liquor license, etc. Downtown, Golden Triangle, Baker, SW Denver neighborhoods, West Denver Neighborhoods, LAKEWOOD, and other suburbs. The talking points are nearly identical, the personalities and socio-demographic profiles identical, the color of the skin and the age of the person giving the feedback - all identical. It is a broken record and for any of you who aren't in the biz, folks pursue 5-10 projects before they get 1. All of this time and effort includes honest community engagement and it's the same damn conversation and result every single time.

Either elected officials stop making careers out of politics and/or have the wisdom and thick skin to stop listening to the over 50 fear and doom shouting or the over 50 crowd stops attending and controlling neighborhood groups and HOA's. If neither of these things happen, housing will be unaffordable in Denver, Colorado, and all of America. It's not completely the fault of old people - young people choose not to be involved when they absolutely can be and turn the tide. It's a typical millennial hypocrisy - I believe in something and it needs to change I just don't want to be the tip of the spear of change and I'll wait for others to do it. Boomers always took the bull by the horns and said, in a TakeFive music video post, "I did it, I did it my way".

[The Dirt]

I guess I thought you were saying that the newcomers were Millennials, not Boomers. I'm also pretty frustrated with my non-housing Millennial friends who are completely unengaged.

[TakeFive]

New Urbanism? What and Where is it?

Props to John Aguilar with the Denver Post for his June 6th well-done piece on housing


Photo credit Hyoung Chang, The Denver Post

From the front porch of his newly built ranch house in Aurora’s Painted Prairie neighborhood, Michael Kearns can see a wide array of homes — duplexes, single-family, townhomes.

It’s a departure, as Kearns sees it, from “the cul-de-sacs, the row after row of garage doors out front,” that has typified suburban development over the last few decades. Having moved to Painted Prairie from a home in Denver’s Central Park with his wife and daughter in November, he calls his new neighborhood “a porch community where everyone sits out front.”

“It doesn’t feel like a suburb to us.”

Where is this new urban/suburban village?

Things are going to be denser, more urban, more self-contained. And the region’s new homes are largely headed east, to available land. “Where do we have the capacity to grow?” said John Covert, regional director for real estate analytics firm Zonda.

Painted Prairie is... 17 miles from downtown Denver, just south of the giant Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center and perched on windswept land that hugs the metro area’s E-470 beltway. Like other communities rising out of the ground nearby — with grandiose names like Montaine, Harmony, Sky Ranch, Aurora Highlands and Horizon Uptown — it’s a glimpse of where Denver’s suburbs are headed.

Who wants to move to Painted Prairie?

She said she likes the “vibe” of Painted Prairie, which is racially diverse and “welcoming.”

Micayla Miller and her husband moved here in September from Denver’s Green Valley Ranch neighborhood, where they got tired of sharing a driveway with their neighbor. The Millers’ new home is located across the street from Painted Prairie’s main gathering spot, High Prairie Park with its community garden and dog run. “When my kid is older, I want to be out on the porch with a glass of wine watching her in the park,” the 27-year-old Miller said as she monitored her sleeping seven-month-old daughter via video on her phone.

[TakeFive]

Source

With Respect to the East Colfax Area Plan

In the works at Community Planning and Development for over three years, the plan covers the neighborhoods along East Colfax from Colorado Boulevard to Yosemite Street, including South Park Hill, Hale, Montclair and East Colfax.

My recall could be better but if IIRC aren't most of these areas filled with nice modest middle-class BRICK homes? They could be starter homes for some, nice family homes for many and also empty-nester homes for others.

What If
the land along 14th Avenue were zoned for fourplexes and the land along 13th Avenue were zoned for row homes-townhomes?

The most critical shortage seems to be in opportunities to buy single family homes. Row homes/townhomes are sufficient for checking that box while fourplexes which could be either condo's or apartments could also make a nice density upgrade. Show the neighbors a plan like this (that they can envision) and I'll bet you'd get a lot of support.

Originally Posted by The Dirt

I guess I thought you were saying that the newcomers were Millennials, not Boomers. I'm also pretty frustrated with my non-housing Millennial friends who are completely unengaged.

I suspect that laniroj had a 'senior moment' - Just sayin'

Speaking of Golden (not the Triangle)
they do allow for for tearing down affordable frame-built homes to be replaced with "missing-middle" nice shiny fourplexes.

bunt... - Looks like I won the 1st round.

[Cementglow]

.

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I really freakin love it when facts go ZING! Thank You Moji for providing these easily obtainable facts that 'smart' people don't care to recognize.

wait, you were really impressed with his "really damning" point about housing starts being way down last year, the same year of a global pandemic that crippled the world?

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

wait, you were really impressed with his "really damning" point about housing starts being way down last year, the same year of a global pandemic that crippled the world?

This 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 clearly didn't look at the data.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

New Urbanism? What and Where is it?

If you have never heard of it, Prospect in Longmont is the single best example of 'new urbansm' in Colorado IMO. It's what suburban development should look like. Unfortunately, we have no planning/zoning tools in place to widely accommodate development like this and it would take an enormous zoning lift to accomplish something like Prospect in most suburban areas. As such, developers don't pursue this type of development because of the time/risk aspect, but they would if it was allowed by code because people would buy/rent this type of stuff in droves and pay a hefty premium for it.

Check it out next time you're back here.

http://www.prospectnewtown.com/

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

wait, you were really impressed with his "really damning" point about housing starts being way down last year, the same year of a global pandemic that crippled the world?

No. I was impressed that someone other than myself equated our housing crisis with the FACT that we produce the same number of pure housing units today with double the population as we did in 1975 with half the population. If those numbers don't make sense to you, I can't help you understand. I have been saying this for a decade, but nobody ever listens (or doesn't want to because facts aren't convenient for narratives).

[SirLucasTheGreat]

This is big.
Pepsi puts 30-acre RiNo property on the market
https://businessden.com/2021/07/07/pepsi...et/#newsletter%23newsletter%23newsletter

[Ich]

Originally Posted by laniroj

If you have never heard of it, Prospect in Longmont is the single best example of 'new urbansm' in Colorado IMO. It's what suburban development should look like. Unfortunately, we have no planning/zoning tools in place to widely accommodate development like this and it would take an enormous zoning lift to accomplish something like Prospect in most suburban areas. As such, developers don't pursue this type of development because of the time/risk aspect, but they would if it was allowed by code because people would buy/rent this type of stuff in droves and pay a hefty premium for it.

Check it out next time you're back here.

http://www.prospectnewtown.com/

I also think Ridge Gate is a great example. I doubt I’ll ever move to the burbs but this would probably be one of the only ones if I did.


https://ridgegate.com/

[mhays]

I wonder if Pepsi (or its bottlers) is getting rid of sites like that as a policy. Its Seattle parallel in the Rainier Valley (albeit a much smaller site) is also on the market apparently.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by laniroj

No. I was impressed that someone other than myself equated our housing crisis with the FACT that we produce the same number of pure housing units today with double the population as we did in 1975 with half the population. If those numbers don't make sense to you, I can't help you understand. I have been saying this for a decade, but nobody ever listens (or doesn't want to because facts aren't convenient for narratives).

Over the decades real estate has been notoriously cyclical
While part and parcel with the whole economy, real estate led the charge.

The 1970's - were Peak FHA efficiency.

Per the era, land was readily available and cheap. Entry-level home neighborhoods were all the rage. If you wanted to buy a home then just skip lunch and use your lunch money as a down payment. No Biggie; if you were a working stiff for Pepsi Bottling Co you could afford the payments for both home and car.

Good guess that 1975 was the Peak. Then Jimmy Carter got elected and the fun of hyperinflation arrived. (Not his fault unless you are a Republican, then ofc it was his fault). Try buying and selling homes when interest rates are in the mid/high-teens. Ya think the numbers were down a little? (hehe)

The 1980's

Here we go loopty loo
Here we go loopty li
Here we go loopty loo
All on a Saturday night

Especially in Denver the 1980's went from Oil & Gas Boom of the 1st have of the decade to the O&G Bust of the 2nd have of the '80's. There were neighborhoods where it seemed nobody lived there; especially in Aurora which made the stupid mistake of allowing All That Density. Back then 'affordable homes' were a euphemism for 'undesirables.'

The 2010's

Following the Great Recession, land was neither readily available and definitely not cheap. Lenders were understandably finicky and the Power Players had no interest in building homes for the "unwashed masses." Instead they built upscale homes or homes for the upper crust. Now you wonder why there's a shortage of affordable homes?

Without context; without understanding what happened and why, statistics are mostly worthless, especially since they're so easy to "cherry pick."

[TakeFive]

Talk about Whiplash

Originally Posted by bulldurhamer

wait, you were really impressed with his "really damning" point about housing starts being way down last year, the same year of a global pandemic that crippled the world?

The 1st half of 2020 saw everybody sitting on their thumbs. Then the 'animal spirits' were awakened and everybody wanted to buy a single family home. Problem was inventory was wanting partly since builders had nearly shut down during the 1st part of the year.

Definitely Cool

Originally Posted by laniroj

If you have never heard of it, Prospect in Longmont is the single best example of 'new urbansm' in Colorado IMO. ]

Talk about well-planned development

Originally Posted by Ich

I also think Ridge Gate is a great example. I doubt I’ll ever move to the burbs but this would probably be one of the only ones if I did.

https://ridgegate.com/

With a long-term vision this was set up to be developed over decades. How often does that happen - at the land owner/developer level?

Originally Posted by mhays

I wonder if Pepsi (or its bottlers) is getting rid of sites like that as a policy. Its Seattle parallel in the Rainier Valley (albeit a much smaller site) is also on the market apparently.

Manufacturing has had its own high-tech revolution. In this case with RiNo land values exploding it was an easy 'strategical' move. Noteworthy was their choice of newer niche industrial area that is logistically (centrally) well located as apposed to being way 'out there.'

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

[SIZE="3"]T
Manufacturing has had its own high-tech revolution. In this case with RiNo land values exploding it was an easy 'strategical' move. Noteworthy was their choice of newer niche industrial area that is logistically (centrally) well located as apposed to being way 'out there.'

Pepsi hasn’t publicly announced the location of a new bottling facility.

[TakeFive]

Thanks for the clarification

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Pepsi hasn’t publicly announced the location of a new bottling facility.

After reading this part

Last summer, PepsiCo announced that it had signed a lease for a 283,500-square-foot built-to-suit building with Pecos Logistics Park, the industrial park being developed by Denver-based Westfield Co. at the corner of 56th Avenue and Pecos Street in Adams County

I must have stopped reading before the next sentence...

Carner told the Denver Post at the time that space would not replace Pepsi’s bottling plant in RiNo.