DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[AlSmithee]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Johnny Barber who started the Colfax Museum. Not sure if he landed a new space or not, but he's still around.

http://www.colfaxavenue.org/p/colfax-museum.html

Sounds like just the guy who might be interested. If only it wasn't so huge.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

The Current also got a head start on Watershed, WTC and T3 (T3 "broke ground" before the pandemic but no work has happened). Not sure how much of the prepandemic planned office space will actually happen in RiNo. The one proposed office building in Golden Triangle is converting to residential due to uncertainties in the office market.

DBJ has a nice piece about The Current.

Schnitzer West purchased the land for the project — roughly 34,250 square feet — for a combined $6.16 million in March 2019... But jurisdictional infrastructure work needed to be completed before the project could break ground, delaying the construction start to April 2021, a representative of Schnitzer West said in an email. The pandemic was not the reason for the delay, the representative said.

I can recall Schnitzer back before they were Schnitzer West. From their website, it appears - like Golub (Chi) - they like to partner on projects.

Schnitzer West and Craft Companies LLC, a Denver-based real estate firm, are development partners on the project, known as "The Current, River North."

The last project I recall Schnitzer doing was the Civica Cherry Creek building; it's a nice enough Cherry Creek-looking building but the nicest part might just be the backdrop.



Image courtesy Schnitzer West

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Brighton Blvd has its own hype including The Source, The Mission Ballroom etc. I've yet to see the master plan, but I believe that Golub's intentions in RiNo are for a mixed-use people place that would include retail.

A chunk of RiNo about the size of 10 football fields just got rezoned to make way for a development that’ll include housing
May 24, 2021 By Esteban L. Hernandez - Denverite

Denver City Council has approved a rezoning request for a block of land in the RiNo Art District in Five Points, opening the way for developers to build some 1,000 housing units and commercial spaces on roughly 13 acres, or nearly 10 football fields.

Courtesy of the city's planning office via Denverite

The developers, locally-based Formativ and Chicago-based Golub & Co., want to build between 1,000 to 1,400 housing units, and include between 1.25 million to 1.5 million square feet of commercial space.

The zoning approved Monday would still allow mixed-use buildings, but increase maximum heights to 250 feet at 2650 Arkins Ct. and allow some buildings among the four parcels to rise up to 110, 150 and 200 feet, with the lower heights closer to the river and the taller heights allowed more in the center of the development.

"Council also approved a development agreement between the city and the landowners"

The agreement — passed by the same 12-1 tally — includes a “voluntary” commitment from developers to provide affordable housing, ensuring 15 percent of all units built are affordable housing.

Still haven't seen the masterplan which sounds delicious but this is a Big Step.

[Ndj]

Good ol' Candi voting against more housing despite housing availability being her #1 issue. Got to give her credit for being consistent.

[TakeFive]

Yes, this is a Big Deal

(or is it?)

More companies are embracing work from home. Downtown spending and CRE could suffer
May 25, 2021 By Andy Medici – Senior Reporter Business Journal

More companies are embracing work-from-home options for the long term, and the trend threatens to limit spending in downtowns and urban areas, particularly in the nation's largest cities.

The new analysis of the impact of long-term remote work after the pandemic and its potential impact on cities comes from the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, which found the post-pandemic work-from-home shift will lower spending on meals, entertainment, personal services and shopping, cutting spending in major cities by 5% to 10% of overall pre-pandemic spending.

What's the Big Deal?

It’s a big deal, according to Steven Davis, an economist and a professor at the University of Chicago who is one of the paper's authors. The trend could have multimillion-dollar implications for commercial real estate, labor market trends, city government budgets and the culinary sector, among others.

“Commercial property values will probably decline for office buildings but even more so for retail space. That means lower property tax revenues and lower sales tax revenues."

Dangling Carrots And Wielding Sticks: Employers Aim To Accelerate 'Slow Drip' Return To Office
May 23, 2021 Jarred Schenke, Bisnow Atlanta

At Crocker Partners' 11M SF of offices across the Southeast, occupancy has stubbornly hovered around 25% over the past six months.

But as vaccination rates have risen and restrictions have lifted, its offices are more like 35% filled this month, Managing Partner Angelo Bianco said, a disappointingly low number for this point in the year.

What's the diagnosis?

“Right now, it's a slow drip,” said Gensler Senior Associate Erin Greer, a co-director of the design firm's workplace studio. “There's that push and pull between traditionalists, if you will, who think you can put the genie back in the bottle.”

As of the middle of May, occupancy at office buildings in the nation's 10 largest metro areas was just below 28%, according to Kastle Systems, which operates entry control systems in commercial buildings.

Office occupancy in Austin, Houston and Dallas was over 40%, while the Northeast and California were still hovering in the teens, but the overall average has crawled up from the low 20% range since January, Kastle General Manager Adam Joseph said.

What about nicer, newer office buildings?

“The nicer the building it is, the less traffic that is going into those buildings,” Joseph said. “Our experience has been, at least in most markets, despite progress and better education about Covid, it's been slower.”

Prior to the pandemic, Kastle door swipes averaged between 50% and 70% of employees daily, which is considered full occupancy...

What do you expect at this point?

Going forward, the peak occupancy could top out at around 50% as companies adopt a permanent flex schedule for employees, he said.

“I think the baseline will evolve,” Joseph said. “I think usage of office space is going to change and the expectation that employees are there 9-to-5 on a daily basis is going to change.”

Note: - These are about 'turnstile' numbers and not the percentage of leased space and watching trends for the balance of this year will be critical.

[gopokes21]

Downtown is quickly coming back to life as we speak. I'm not worried one bit. The weather this week has been gorgeous and the sidewalks have been packed.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Especially in LoDo. Really excited for that area

[TakeFive]

Defining Denver among its Peer Cities - Part One

Peer Cities

Peer cities are cities that are experiencing similar trends or challenges.

This is a fun definition but I use criteria based more on demographics that generally (but not entirely) focus on cities West of the Mississippi starting with common, credible databases.

Peer Cities based on MSA population
Note: City specific population comparisons are too squirrely due to geographic size differences. Figures are rounded, mostly up.

1. Seattle - 4.0 million
2. Minneapolis - 3.7 million
3. San Diego - 3.3 million
4. Tampa - 3.2 million
5. Denver - 3.0 million
6. Charlotte - 2.6 million
7. Orlando - 2.6 million
8. Portland - 2.5 million
9. Austin - 2.2 million

Peer Cities bases on Real GDP

1. Minneapolis - $264 million
2. Phoenix - $255 million
3. San Diego - $245 million
4. Denver - $215 million
5. Charlotte - $170 million
6. Portland - $165 million
7. Tampa - $159 million
8. Austin - $147 million

Cities (MSA) with similar population growth since 2010

1. Dallas - 19%
2. Phoenix - 18%
3. Seattle - 15.7%
4. Tampa - 15%
5. Denver - 16.6%
6. Charlotte - 17.5%
7. Las Vegas - 16%
8. Nashville - 17.5%

Note: Austin is on it's own list of one with a whopping growth of 30% since 2010.

NEXT: An interpretive look at other data and criteria for thinking of Peer Cities.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

Downtown is quickly coming back to life as we speak. I'm not worried one bit. The weather this week has been gorgeous and the sidewalks have been packed.

I think cores of larger cities will survive just fine. People who live/work in these areas aren't going to suddenly leave. I started working out of WeWork on Platte St back in February because I needed to be around people again.

Boulder on the other hand? I think they are screwed hardcore. Anyone who knows that commute to work in Boulder has no desire to go back to working from there more than a day or two out of the week. Our company has an office there, but I think only one person actually lives in Boulder. Even if I was in Colorado when our office opens back up, I would go up there... Maybe once or twice a week - At best. No one wants to do that rat race up 36 into Boulder if they don't have to.

[i4isoar]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Defining Denver among its Peer Cities - Part One

Peer Cities

This is a fun definition but I use criteria based more on demographics that generally (but not entirely) focus on cities West of the Mississippi starting with common, credible databases.

Nice work! Thanks for compiling all of this data - it definitely puts a lot of things into perspective, and I look forward to the second part. In the meantime, your list inspired me to do something similar, but this time comparing Denver with its peer cities in terms of skyscraper size.

Denver and Its Peer Cities: Tallest and Largest Skyscrapers

Seattle: Columbia Center

• Height: 933ft / 284m
• No. of Floors: 76
• Floorspace: 1.54M sqft / 143,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1985

Dallas: Bank of America Plaza

• Height: 921ft / 281m
• No. of Floors: 74
• Floorspace: 1.84M sqft / 171,300 sqm
• Year Completed: 1985

Charlotte: Bank of America Corporate Center

• Height: 871ft / 265m
• No. of Floors: 60
• Floorspace: 1.4M sqft / 130,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1992

Minneapolis: IDS Center

• Height: 792ft / 241m
• No. of Floors: 57
• Floorspace: 1.505M sqft / 140,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1972

Denver (1): Republic Plaza

• Height: 717ft / 219m
• No. of Floors: 56
• Floorspace: 1.85M sqft / 172,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1984

Denver (2): 1801 California St.

• Height: 709ft / 216m
• No. of Floors: 53
• Floorspace: 1.9M sqft / 177,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1983

Denver (3): The Cash Register

• Height: 698ft / 213m
• No. of Floors: 52
• Floorspace: 1.2M sqft / 111,500 sqm
• Year Completed: 1983

Austin: The Independent

• Height: 690ft / 210m
• No. of Floors: 58
• Floorspace: 950,000 sqft / 88,300 sqm
• Year Completed: 2019

Las Vegas: The Palazzo

• Height: 642ft / 196m
• No. of Floors: 53
• Floorspace: 6.9M sqft / 646,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 2007

Denver (4): Four Seasons Hotel

• Height: 641ft / 195m
• No. of Floors: 45
• Floorspace: 766,000 sqft / 71,200 sqm
• Year Completed: 2010

Nashville: AT&T Building

• Height: 617ft / 188m
• No. of Floors: 33
• Floorspace: 690,000 sqft / 64,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1994

Denver (5): 1144 15th St.

• Height: 617ft / 188m
• No. of Floors: 40
• Floorspace: 671,000 sqft / 62,300 sqm
• Year Completed: 2018

Tampa: 100 North Tampa St.

• Height: 579ft / 176m
• No. of Floors: 42
• Floorspace: 552,000 sqft / 51,300 sqm
• Year Completed: 1992

Portland: Wells Fargo Center

• Height: 546ft / 166m
• No. of Floors: 41
• Floorspace: 568,000 sqft / 52,800 sqm
• Year Completed: 1972

San Diego: One America Plaza

• Height: 500ft / 152m
• No. of Floors: 34
• Floorspace: 623,000 sqft / 57,900 sqm
• Year Completed: 1991

Phoenix: Chase Tower

• Height: 483ft / 147m
• No. of Floors: 40
• Floorspace: 668,000 sqft / 62,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1972

Orlando: SunTrust Center

• Height: 441ft / 134m
• No. of Floors: 35
• Floorspace: 655,000 sqft / 60,800 sqm
• Year Completed: 1988

Salt Lake City: Wells Fargo Center

• Height: 422ft / 129m
• No. of Floors: 24
• Floorspace: 570,000 sqft / 53,000 sqm
• Year Completed: 1998

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Seattle - 4.0 million
Minneapolis - 3.7 million
San Diego - 3.3 million
Tampa - 3.2 million
Denver - 3.0 million
Charlotte - 2.6 million
Orlando - 2.6 million
Portland - 2.5 million
Austin - 2.2 million

Boy stats are fun.. I can't argue with the data I guess.. But I'll just say that Cale Makar and I are peers because we're both 5'11"

Would it be a troll to say a city can't be a peer of another if they don't have the equivalent complement of professional sports teams? That would actually erase most (I'd probably leave Portland on the list for reasons I can't verbalize) of the cities that make my eyebrows raise.

Maybe the equivalent complement of major cultural attractions (how fun would defining those be!!)? That one brings back San Diego, in my tiny head.. and I'm not sure what it does to Portland/Minneapolis/Austin.

Not trying to hate on Orlando or Tampa or any other cities.. I love it here in central FL. But damn.

[DenvertoLA]

Originally Posted by i4isoar

Nice work! Thanks for compiling all of this data - it definitely puts a lot of things into perspective, and I look forward to the second part. In the meantime, your list inspired me to do something similar, but this time comparing Denver with its peer cities in terms of skyscraper size.

Denver and Its Peer Cities: Tallest and Largest Skyscrapers


San Diego: One America Plaza

• Height: 500ft / 152m
• No. of Floors: 34
• Floorspace: 623,000 sqft / 57,900 sqm
• Year Completed: 1991

San Diego has a height limit of 500 ft because the airport is right by downtown. Living here has definitely opened my eyes to the benefits of having height limits.

I use to just see the negative, especially since Denver's height limits are based on viewing fields of the mountains...

[coolmandan03]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

I use to just see the negative, especially since Denver's height limits are based on viewing fields of the mountains...

Plenty (most) of Denver doesn't have height limits though...

[The Dirt]

And the reason why the top 3 towers in Denver are roughly the same height is because of the old Stapleton Airport height limits imposed by the FAA. City skyscraper heights mean absolutely bupkis. All of the 4-23 story infill in and around downtown in the last 10 years has done far more to make downtown feel like a real place than 3 modernist towers from the early 80s surrounded by useless plazas and parking garages.

[DenvertoLA]

Originally Posted by coolmandan03

Plenty (most) of Denver doesn't have height limits though...

What?? Coors Field has view plane protections, the capital I think does. the FAR ratio is effectively a height limit. 16th street mall has one I think.

But then again, it's been a bit since I've lived there. I'd love to be wrong.

[coolmandan03]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

What?? Coors Field has view plane protections, the capital I think does. the FAR ratio is effectively a height limit. 16th street mall has one I think.

But then again, it's been a bit since I've lived there. I'd love to be wrong.

Most of those viewplanes are pretty tiny

Here's Coors Field View Plane

And here's the state Capitol.

Those are the only two closest to downtown. And just because it's a view plane doesn't mean it's some big limit - the larger the viewplane, the less limiting the heights are. For instance, Cheeseman Park View Plane (which ends at Broadway) has an elevation limit of 5,383+77' feet, which is about 210+ height feet along Broadway... When people start demanding 20+ floors along Broadway we can revisit this code... but that's certainly not the current limiting factor when most construction is designed as a 5/1. I would love to see a developer challenge the view plane limits... but I have not heard that as the case.

[CONative]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

San Diego has a height limit of 500 ft because the airport is right by downtown. Living here has definitely opened my eyes to the benefits of having height limits.

I use to just see the negative, especially since Denver's height limits are based on viewing fields of the mountains...

Denver also had a height limit because of its airport -- until 1995. It couldn't be more than a certain elevation (or around 700 feet in downtown Denver). This is why those 3 towers are all close to 700 feet.

[i4isoar]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

San Diego has a height limit of 500 ft because the airport is right by downtown. Living here has definitely opened my eyes to the benefits of having height limits.

I use to just see the negative, especially since Denver's height limits are based on viewing fields of the mountains...

Just curious, as I've never been to San Diego before, but what are some of the positives of having height limits? (Other than, of course, allowing the airport to be located conveniently close to downtown). I've heard good things about San Diego from friends who've been there and would like to visit one day.

Originally Posted by The Dirt

And the reason why the top 3 towers in Denver are roughly the same height is because of the old Stapleton Airport height limits imposed by the FAA. City skyscraper heights mean absolutely bupkis. All of the 4-23 story infill in and around downtown in the last 10 years has done far more to make downtown feel like a real place than 3 modernist towers from the early 80s surrounded by useless plazas and parking garages.

I'm not necessarily saying that skyscraper height is a measure of the worth of a city, its quality of life, etc. After all, I'd rather live in Denver than Cleveland, Charlotte, or Chicago. I compiled this list mainly because I thought it would be a fun exercise, and I also learned some interesting and surprising facts along the way (such as, for example, that The Palazzo in Vegas is even larger than The Pentagon).

That being said, however, I wouldn't mind it if Denver got a "new tallest" as it hasn't gotten one since even before I was born.

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by i4isoar

...I compiled this list mainly because I thought it would be a fun exercise, and I also learned some interesting and surprising facts along the way...

I did too! Because I know there are a lot of complaints about Denver not getting a new tallest and how old the Republic Plaza is, but after looking over this list and checking on a few other US cities, almost every major American city's tallest building was constructed more than 20 years ago.

Even in Seattle, where there has been so much construction and growth, most of the tallest buildings in the city were built in the 80s and 90s. And Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston are in a similar position to Denver, with endless construction but the 10+ tallest buildings dominated by towers built before the turn of the century. The cities that have gotten decent high infill were either growing exponentially or underbuilt for their size.

I bet the next 10 years here will be much the same - a lot of people are moving to permanently working from home and the vulture capitalists that fund a lot of large US corporations don't see the profit margin in HQ development and real estate ownership as high enough, so the likelihood of us getting a new tallest office building is pretty low. MAYBE if someone actually finds funding for their crazy mixed-use hotel or condo supertall and it isn't just another set of coked-fueled napkin-back scribblings we'll see something...

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

...I bet the next 10 years here will be much the same - a lot of people are moving to permanently working from home and the vulture capitalists that fund a lot of large US corporations don't see the profit margin in HQ development and real estate ownership as high enough, so the likelihood of us getting a new tallest office building is pretty low...

You make an interesting point about why new tallest's aren't happening. I hypothesize that companies (like Amazon) could build a new tallest in every city but choose not to because it's not worth their time. Development is time intensive and these companies are already talent constrained (ie they could make MORE money if they could find more talent, but that's hard to do). Long story short, it's easier for them to make a whole lot more money running their business than building real estate on the side. A tower is a billion dollars+...that's a couple weeks of cash flow at some of these huge monoliths that print cheddar - it's not worth their time. PLUS, I'm sure they are so dialed into EPS that they choose to lease vs own because they can keep all of that expense off balance sheet and squeeze out a few more pennies per share each quarter that way...they're not vultures for nothin'!