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Originally Posted by GoTrans
In 2011 there were only 3 trains a day in each direction between Ottawa and Toronto. In 1998 there were 4, but the overnight train, the Cavalier was cancelled.
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Let me correct this statement for you:
In 2011 there were only 3 5 trains a day in each direction between Ottawa and Toronto. In 1998 1988 there were 4, but the overnight train, the Cavalier, was cancelled replaced by a 4th day train.
Here is the full evolution since CP abandoned the Toronto-Ottawa/Montreal corridor east of Havelock:
- As of February 1966: 3 trains per day (2 day + 1 night)
- As of October 1984: 4 trains per day (3 day + 1 night)
- As of October 1988: 4 trains per day (night train replaced by 4th day train)
- As of January 1990: 3 trains per day
- As of January 1992: 4 trains per day
- As of September 1996: 5 trains per day
- As of January 2012: 6 trains per day
- As of December 2012: 7 trains per day
- As of October 2014: 8 trains per day
- As of October 2016: 9 trains per day
- As of November 2017: 10 trains per day
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When you speak of nostalgia, it is the posters who don't think anything should be done to change change the service of Canadian.
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At least if you are a railway company, every major change in your network incurs substantial costs. Therefore, you need to have a clear idea of what exactly is the problem you are trying to fix and what are the desirable results you can realistically expect. Nobody knows how the Canadian will recover from the current pandemic, but if it returns to recovering close to its variable (direct) costs, I don't see the urgency for dramatic changes, just like I don't see any chance of unlocking any of the lofty benefits you and @swimmer_spe keep dreaming up...
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Why wouldn't you want to change the routing as a minimum in order to attract more riders. Route it through Thunder Bay and through Regina and then to Saskatoon. This is change that would add more riders and improve on time performance and would probably reduce travel time due to fewer delays.
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I'm afraid that as long as you insist on ignoring the limited nature of VIA's fleet, funding, mandate and infrastructure access, you will never understand this.
Nevertheless, I will still try to provide some reasons for the benefit of everyone else:
Some pre-requisites for re-routing the Canadian between Wannup Junction (Northern end of the DRZ between Parry Sound and Sudbury) and Winnipeg- CP has to grant infrastructure access
- CP has to inspect the rail infrastructure to determine whether it's safe for passenger operations
- The federal government has to approve whatever capital funding CP requests in order to restore track quality and capacity to grant VIA track access
- The federal government has to either cancel Capreol-Winnipeg from VIA's mandate or to approve the operating funding required to run a separate (remote) Capreol-Winnipeg service (just like VIA did between 1981 and 1990)
Just to provide a price estimate for that Capreol-Winnipeg service.
In 1988, VIA's operating deficit for this route was $12.4 million [1] or $23.9 million in 2019 values [2]. Even if we subtract the operating subsidy of the Sudbury-White River run (if we assume that it would be obviated by re-routing the Canadian over the same tracks), this subsidy need only decreases by $3.7 million to still just over $20 million. To put things into perspective: the combined annual train revenues of Toronto-Niagara Falls, the Ocean and all Remote services was $19.94 million
in 2019 [3]. Do you really believe that the stations between Sudbury and Winnipeg can collectively generate more revenues than all these services
combined?
[1]54,101 passengers * $229.10 subsidy per passenger
[2]54,101 passengers * $229.10 subsidy per passenger * 1.9263
[3]$1.488 million + $12.829 million + $5.623 million
Some pre-requisites for re-routing the Canadian between Portage-la-Prairie and Saskatoon- CP has to grant infrastructure access (for Portage-la-Prairie to Regina)
- LMR has to grant infrastructure access (for Regina to Davidson)
- CN has to grant infrastructure access (for Davidson to Saskatoon)
- All three host railroads have to inspect their rail infrastructure to determine whether it's safe for passenger operations
- The federal government has to approve whatever capital funding any of the three host railroads requests in order to restore track quality and capacity to grant VIA track access
Again, I've extrapolated
in a separate thread the potential extra ridership and incremental operating costs from replacing the Canadian's existing stops in Melville, Rivers and Watrous through new stops in Brandon and Regina, which yielded an net increase by 1766 riders and $1.2 million in operating costs, which means that you would need an average fare of $660 paid by each of these riders, just to offset the higher operating costs resulting from the detour. If you don't like these figures, come back with a refined methodology to show me where I'm wrong...
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Even though CP has torn up much of its double track between Thunder Bay and Winnipeg it is still blessed with plenty of long sidings and multiple double track sections unlike CN. CN only has 1 section of double track 9 miles long on the north route and only has 10 sidings over 10,000 ft between Winnipeg and Capreol over a distance of 931 miles. That means there is a siding approximately every 85 miles that can handle so called over length trains. How can you expect a passenger train to run on time when there are this much potential for delays?
VIA routes trains more in line with the traditional railways, that being either CN or CP but little switching between railway companies in-between except on share trackage in the Fraser Canyon and between Parry Sound and Sudbury. Let's take the routes that make sense.
We need to service remote areas with a different format so they they continue to have access to large centres.
I would like to know how you can call this fantasy. This will not solve all the problems but it would be an improvement operationally and financially. This is not rocket science.
In the longer term, it still makes more sense to add regional trains in the west, make the frequency at least 6 trains per week in each direction and scrap the Canadian. The Canadian is only a name, history and a myth and is useless as it is now. I wish the supporters of the Canadian would accept this reality. Even Via Rail says it is not sustainable.
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Bla bla bla, life as an armchair analyst is easy if you can just cherry-pick whichever facts are convenient to your claim and don't have to back up any of these lofty and hopelessly optimistic claims...!
TLDR: 1) It helps to actually look into timetables before making uninformed guesses, 2) Re-routing the Canadian via Thunder Bay rather than Sioux Lookout may increase VIA's operating subsidy need by $20 million and 3) re-routing the Canadian via Regina rather than Melville may not even recover the incremental operating costs from increasing the train mileage