There are currently about 1.2 million jobs in Chicago. Although this is about the same as in the mid-1970s, there’s been a
huge change in the types of jobs and where they are. This is shown in the following tables:
All city jobs
Mfg Services Other Total
1972 435,000 277,000 598,000 1,310,000
2010 65,000 583,000 363,000 1,011,000
2019 64,000 729,000 411,000 1,214,000
Downtown jobs
Mfg Services Other Total
1972 95,000 130,000 275,000 500,000
2010 6,000 302,000 171,000 479,000
2019 9,000 403,000 208,000 620,000
Comments:
1. The numbers above and many of my comments come from two websites:
• the Illinois Department of Employment Security’s yearly “Where Workers Work” reports, and
• August 9, 2019 article by Ed Zotti titled “Where the jobs are in Chicago: downtown, and that’s a good thing”.
2. Manufacturing jobs in Chicago went from 435,000 in 1972 to 65,000 in 2010; a drop of 370,000. At that point they
bottomed out and have been flat since. This, plus the beginning of the recovery from the great recession, set the stage
for strong job growth over the next nine years.
3. Service jobs have steadily grown from 277,000 (21% of total city jobs) in 1972 to 729,000 (61% of city jobs) in 2019.
Growth in downtown service jobs has been especially strong. The largest categories of service jobs are
• Professional, scientific and technical services (legal, technology, etc.),
• Accommodations and food services (hotels and restaurants), and
• Health care and social assistance.
4. From 2010 to 2019, downtown jobs grew at a rate of 15,643 per year. Over the long term, this pace is not likely to
continue - but it’s easy to imagine a 10,000 per year average. In other words, 300,000 new downtown jobs over the next
30 years. That’s a lot of jobs.
5. There’s a common perception (misperception) that jobs created downtown don’t benefit low-income people and
neighborhoods. People think that most downtown jobs require and “advanced degree”. People (e.g., aldermen) say that
downtown’s booming but the neighborhoods are being left behind.
It’s true that high-paying downtown jobs generally require a college degree. But lots of downtown jobs pay less and
don’t require a college degree. These jobs range from dishwashers, hotel housekeepers and hospital orderlies to
receptionists, accounts payable clerks and junior accountants.
And people with downtown jobs, whether they’re high-paid, low-paid or in between, go home and spend their paychecks
in the neighborhoods where they live. Which supports business and creates more neighborhood jobs. So the best way
to boost impoverished neighborhoods is to help people who live in them get jobs downtown.
The City is moving the Park District headquarters to Brighton Park on the southwest side. As I understand it, this is at
least partly to create jobs in the neighborhood. I don’t know if this is a good decision or not, but how many jobs will be
created? 50? 100? These numbers are insignificant in the overall picture.
As an alternative, what I’d propose is to say that if someone’s unemployed and lives in an impoverished neighborhood
and they get a job downtown, the city will give them a free CTA pass for a year. Pick a couple aldermen who like the idea
and try it as an experiment. Once a month, the person brings his pay stub into the alderman’s office and gets a CTA pass
for the next month.
6. Chicago’s transportation infrastructure is completely inadequate to handle an additional 300,000 people commuting
downtown every day. This should be obvious to anyone who’s on the Kennedy or the Eisenhower during rush hour. Or
takes the Red, Brown or Blue line. But if you need more evidence, click on these links:
• article in Forbes dated Feb 11, 2019, which lists the Kennedy and the Eisenhower expressways as the second
and third most congested highways in the country.
• CTA’s System-wide Capacity Study, updated in February 2019.
• Sun-Times article dated March 8, 2021, titled “Chicago traffic ranked third worst in the country”.
7. The City needs a long term transportation plan to deal with this. This plan should address:
• How much office space will be needed for 300 thousand new employees over the next 30 years, and where in
the CBD can/should this be built,
• How will all these people get to their jobs and what transit upgrades are needed to accommodate this, and
• How this will be paid for.
Los Angeles plans to spend $80 billion over the next 30 years to upgrade its mass transit system. What they did was draft
a series of plans and then asked the voters to approve tax increases dedicated to funding them. The latest plan was
voted on in November 2016 and approved by 71% of the voters.
Also see LA’s “How to Pass a Mega Transportation Measure”
Last November, the people of Austin Texas voted to raise taxes to pay the city’s share of a $7.1 billion transit plan,
including a subway through downtown.
What Los Angeles and Austin have shown is that people are willing to approve tax increases if they’re dedicated to
paying for specific transportation improvements.
Chicago says it’s a “world class city” but it can’t put together a transit plan that’s half as good as Austin’s. Chicago
struggles to pay for a new Green line station at Damen. This is pathetic.
8. Under the “no little plans” philosophy, what I’d like to see is a 30 year transportation plan to spend $60 billion. I see a
plan as involving the following projects:
Phase 1: Projects that can be completed over the next 10 to 15 years. These are from a very good list that Ardecila
posted a couple months ago.
• Red Line extension to 130th St.
• Congress Branch rebuild.
• Metra railcar replacement.
• CREATE projects. Including the Kinzie flyover.
• Eisenhower rebuild. Central – Mannheim.
• North Lake Shore Drive.
Phase 2: Projects that could be completed in years 5 thru 25.
Two new subways thru the Loop. One, a north-south subway under Canal St that would be built in connection with a
complete rebuild of Union Station. The second, an east-west subway from the United Center to Michigan Ave. I have
more specific ideas re each of these and maybe I’ll put them in another post.
Phase 3: Projects that would not be started until sometime after year 15.
9. Once a plan is approved, the City Department of Planning and Development should be given the task of evaluating and
rating all new development proposals against the plan. This evaluation would encourage large developments near
existing and planned transit lines and discourage or prohibit new office development away from transit. Proposals like
Lincoln Yards should absolutely be prohibited.
All necessary rights-of-way must be preserved to permit build-out over the next 30 years.
10. Paying for this
Assuming the feds pay for half, that leaves $30 billion for the State and City. And I assume the State and City will each pay half of this.
The State’s $15 billion share
Gov Pritzker just announced a $20.7 billion six-year infrastructure plan. He says that this will be paid for with revenue
increases that were approved two years ago (including increases in gas tax and the cost of vehicle registration) plus the
closing of certain tax loopholes. So it seems fair to think that the state can find $15 billion over 30 years for Chicago.
My argument for allocating more of the state’s budget to Chicago is this: Areas of the state that are growing need to
spend more money on infrastructure than areas that aren’t growing. And downtown Chicago is the only large area of the
state that’s growing.
The City’s $15 billion share
For the City’s share, I assume it will need to increase taxes by $500 million per year.
So what the City should do RIGHT NOW is draft a plan that explains how good things will be if voters approve a tax
increase and how bad things will be if they don’t. And then put it on the 2022 ballot. I’d even hire the person who
managed the Measure M ballot initiative in LA.
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