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Originally Posted by left of center
For us to "screw" up in this way would be a nearly impossible stroke of luck, lol. The city could start turning the tides on population loss and its reputation, but for hundreds of thousands of people to start moving in to the point where we lose all the "grit" on the south and west sides would literally take many decades, if ever.
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Pretty much. NYC added a lot of people since 2010, overall and so much construction yet the majority of the grit still remains whether it's in Brooklyn, Queens, or The Bronx. It would literally take some epic China-level growth in some cities that was previously seen to get to the level of all that being erased. Fat chance of that happening in the US right now anywhere.
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Originally Posted by jtown,man
Holy shit. Terrible time to move here.
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I don't think this is a "Chicago thing" and more of a "terrible time to move anywhere right before a pandemic" for a good 90% of the country to be frank.
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I just wish they could get crime under control, if that were to happen (even reaching 2004 levels), I could see myself living here forever.
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I think you mean 2014, which was the lowest level in crime totals in Chicago since 1965. In any case, I think what most people need to realize is that violent crime in much of the US has been on the rise for the last 8-10 months. Chicago has work to do, and so do so many other places right now, as you'll see below.
Here's what I predict will happen: Chicago will actually end up with fewer homicides than last year. Why? Most years, violent crime spikes in the summer for a variety of reasons but one of the reasons is because school is out. Some of the biggest victims in Chicago of shooting deaths are under 18 - and in normal years this had kind of "delayed" some of this and then spike in the summer. During the pandemic, schools are essentially closed in person. I hope I am right in this, but I think everyone will get to the end of the year and say "wait a minute...but it was trending upward." My guess is that it will just continue at some steady streak. Maybe in the fall it will decline if in person class is back on.
Current or semi current homicide rates among various US cities right now
- Juarez, Mexico: 34.22 per 100K (just for fun here...which is barely higher than Jackson, MS)
- Jackson, MS: 32.37 per 100K people
- St. Louis: 24.29 per 100K
- Baltimore: 20.22 per 100K
- Birmingham, AL: 20.06 per 100K
- Shreveport, LA: 17.1 per 100K
- Memphis: 16.9 per 100K
- Columbus, GA: 15.97 per 100K
- Detroit: 14.18 per 100K
- New Orleans: 14.1 per 100K
- Baton Rouge, LA: 14.08 per 100K (as of 3/5)
- Philadelphia: 12.5 per 100K
- Buffalo: 11.75 per 100K
- Oakland: 11.55 per 100K
- Kansas City: 11.51 per 100K
- Little Rock, AR: 11.15 per 100K
- Indianapolis: 10.84 per 100K
- Cleveland: 10.76 per 100K (* As of April 10 - probably a bit higher now)
- Akron, OH: 10.61 per 100K
- Milwaukee: 10.51 per 100K
- Richmond, VA: 10.42 per 100K
- Washington DC: 10.34 per 100K
- Atlanta: 10.26 per 100K
- Louisville: 9.88 per 100K
- Hartford, CT: 9.83 per 100K
- Bakersfield, CA: 9.11 per 100K
- Albuquerque: 8.56 per 100K
- Pittsburgh: 8.33 per 100K
- Columbus, OH: 8.24 per 100K
- Rochester, NY: 8.24 per 100K
- Chicago: 7.61 per 100K (as of 5/11)
- Cincinnati: 7.57 per 100K
- Norfolk, VA: 7.42 per 100K
- Toledo, OH: 6.91 per 100K
- Knoxville, TN: 6.4 per 100K
- Houston: 6.28 per 100K
- Minneapolis: 6.28 per 100K
- Greensboro, NC: 6.07 per 100K
- Nashville: 5.97 per 100K
- St. Petersburg, FL: 5.74 per 100K
- Dallas: 5.73 per 100K
- Fresno, CA: 5.66 per 100K
- Ft. Wayne, IN: 5.55 per 100K
- Durham, NC: 5.1 per 100K
- Lexington, KY: 4.95 per 100K
- Portland: 4.75 per 100K
- Wichita: 4.62 per 100K
- Newark, NJ: 4.61 per 100K
- Jacksonville: 4.5 per 100K
- Oklahoma City: 4.47 per 100K
- Providence, RI: 4.45 per 100K
- Charlotte: 4.06 per 100K
- Denver: 3.99 per 100K
- St. Paul, MN: 3.9 per 100K
- Stockton, CA: 3.86 per 100K
- Winston-Salem, NC: 3.65 per 100K
- Ft. Worth, TX: 3.52 per 100K
- The Bronx, NYC*: 3.24 per 100K
- Los Angeles: 3.24 per 100K
- Colorado Springs: 3.17 per 100K
- Sacramento: 3.15 per 100K
- Austin: 3.06 per 100K
- Las Vegas: 2.52 per 100K
- Anchorage: 2.43 per 100K
- Boston: 1.88 per 100K
- NYC: 1.88 per 100K
- Brooklyn, NYC*: 1.84 per 100K
- San Jose: 1.76 per 100K
- Omaha: 1.71 per 100K
- San Francisco: 1.7 per 100K
- Manhattan, NYC*: 1.66 per 100K
- Seattle: 1.48 per 100K
- Queens, NYC*: 1.29 per 100K
- Staten Island, NYC*: 1.26 per 100K
- Virginia Beach: 0.89 per 100K
- Toronto: 0.84 per 100K
- Oahu (i.e. all of Honolulu and more): 0.40 per 100K
I don't have a good reading on numbers from places like San Antonio, Phoenix, San Diego, Vancouver, etc.
Now onto various geographic chunks of the city..
Area 1: Downtown area (Near South, North, West, and the Loop), Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Lincoln Square, Uptown, Edgewater, Rogers Park, West Ridge, Edison Park, Norwood Park, Jefferson Park, Forest Glen, North Park, Albany Park, Portage Park, Irving Park, Dunning, Montclare, Belmont Cragin, Hermosa, Avondale, Logan Square, West Town, Lower West Side, O'Hare
Total population (2019) = 1,416,845 ==> Nearly the same size as San Diego, and larger than Dallas.
Total homicides thru 5/11 = 17
Homicide rate = 1.2 per 100K ==> Lower than Seattle, Boston, NYC, San Jose, etc. Also lower than every borough in NYC including Manhattan at not a ton lower population.
Area 2: Austin, Humboldt Park, West Garfield Park, East Garfield Park, South Lawndale, North Lawndale
Total population (2019) = 288,676 ==> About the same size as Orlando or Pittsburgh
Total homicides thru 5/11 = 66
Homicide rate = 22.86 per 100K ==> Very high, but still lower than St. Louis and Jackson, MS. Slightly higher than all of Baltimore.
Area 3: Englewood, West Englewood, Greater Grand Crossing, Chatham, Auburn Gresham, South Shore, Roseland, West Pullman, Washington Heights, Chicago Lawn, Avalon Park, Burnside, Calumet Heights
Total Population (2019) = 378,367 ==> About the same as Cleveland, OH
Total homicides thru 5/11 = 87
Homicide rate = 22.99 per 100K ==> Very high, but still lower than St. Louis and Jackson, MS. Slightly higher than all of Baltimore.
Area 4: Bridgeport, McKinley Park, Brighton Park, New City, Gage Park, West Elsdon, Clearing, West Lawn, Ashburn, Archer Heights, Garfield Ridge, Armour Square
Total population (2019) = 354,674 ==> About the same as Honolulu city.
Total homicides thru 5/11 = 11
Homicide rate = 3.1 per 100K ==> Almost the same as Austin, and a little lower than Los Angeles.
This is how crazy skewed things are. You have 2 geographic areas of the city with a combined population of 667,043 people, where 153 homicides have occurred. That's 75% of all of the city's homicides occurring in 2 geographic areas where only 25% of the entire city lives. It had a combined rate of 22.94 per 100K which is still lower than St. Louis and Jackson, MS in rate this year and just slightly higher than Baltimore, with almost the same population as Detroit. Literally the 2 "worst" homicide areas of Chicago combined has almost the same rate as Baltimore (including its lower crime areas) and yet still lower than St. Louis and Jackson, MS. The homicide rate where the other 75% of the city lives? 2.52 per 100K. That is lower than Austin and the same as Las Vegas.
And then on the other side of the city, you have a big area of over 1.4 million people, which is larger than Dallas and nearly the same population as San Diego, with one of the lowest homicide rates of any area in the US so far this year. Lower than Boston, NYC, San Francisco, San Jose, etc. and lower than Manhattan.
Then along the I-55 corridor basically you have another geographic area about equal in population to Honolulu, with a lower homicide rate than Austin and Los Angeles so far this year.
Just imagine if just one of those 2 very high areas got a major reduction in violent crime.
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Honestly, I think it's just another stupid little story to get the far-right nuts' panties in a huge bunch. More like the central and southern Illinois republicans, not so much the suburban ones. Haha
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