The Great Canadian Transit Thread

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I assume (and hope) the potential Banff railway would not be a "Calgary" project, when it comes to funding?

It depends. CIB funding is not funding. Subsidy for rail usually comes out of national special pots - like HFR, subsidies for port work and port access.



Some money could be an "Alberta" project - competing with highway funding.



The main point is that is being ignored, all of this is 2027 or later pretty much. Even if projects are actually built earlier.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

It depends. CIB funding is not funding. Subsidy for rail usually comes out of national special pots - like HFR, subsidies for port work and port access.



Some money could be an "Alberta" project - competing with highway funding.



The main point is that is being ignored, all of this is 2027 or later pretty much. Even if projects are actually built earlier.

The Liberals were shut out of AB last election. I'll bet that money for the various projects for AB is coming.

[MalcolmTucker]

As much as people believe money is distributed subjectively between provinces, it largely isn't the case. If the CIB comes back and says Banff-Calgary-Airport rail is viable with a half billion dollar subsidy lets say, I think the three levels of government would split it.

[Hybrid247]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I also think given how much Stage 3 costs, there's a good argument to break it up. Build only till Fallowfield in Stage 3. Save the Kanata extension and the Barrhaven Transitway replacement for later. There's really no logical reason to tie a full Barrhaven LRT to a full Kanata extension. Those are local political considerations that the feds really shouldn't be bothered about.

Agreed, but I would say the city should pursue an extension to Terry Fox as well if that's the case. Not sure what the extra ridership would look like with a Terry fox extension, but I imagine it would be fairly inexpensive and easy to do. They could repackage Terry Fox and Fallowfield extensions as Stage 3 and the rest as Stage 4. Doing that would maybe be more realistic in terms of getting something funded and shovel ready by the time Stage 2 wraps up.

[J.OT13]

Some progress on the Gatineau Tram. They've narrowed down the route on the Gatineau side.

http://www.sto.ca/index.php?id=892&L=en

[hipster duck]

^No wonder they didn't get any Federal money. I thought they had completed an EA, but I guess they were still figuring out the general alignment.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

Agreed, but I would say the city should pursue an extension to Terry Fox as well if that's the case. Not sure what the extra ridership would look like with a Terry fox extension, but I imagine it would be fairly inexpensive and easy to do. They could repackage Terry Fox and Fallowfield extensions as Stage 3 and the rest as Stage 4. Doing that would maybe be more realistic in terms of getting something funded and shovel ready by the time Stage 2 wraps up.

Again. Don't see the case to tie a Barrhaven extension to a Kanata extension. They aren't related in any way that has to do with transit. They might be related due to local politics.

Also the costs are huge. Fallowfield is probably closer to $2B. Terry Fox is going to be a billion. Those aren't small numbers.

I personally can't see both being built at the same time. I think politics will decide which one gets prioritized. And it will be interesting to see which one wins out. Personally, I'm rooting for Fallowfield because of the VIA integration and because the redundancy with the Trillium Line, let's us plan for that upgrade. I think it will be much easier to sell a Fallowfield extension in the 2020s, as part of an integrated network.

I suspect any Kanata extension is going to be a massive undertaking in its own right going till Stittsville. And probably isn't happening in the 2020s.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

Regina and Saskatoon out here collecting bottles to pay for transit improvements.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Might have something to do with Regina blowing the bank on a massive bypass freeway for a small city, and now the same thing being planned for Saskatoon.

With BRT being built in London, and K/W having an LRT, yet Victoria and Halifax not even thinking about any real RT it makes me wonder what the best metric is for basing building RT. Hamilton showed that by cutting bus service, they can show there is a lack of need for RT.

Here is how I would do it:
1) CMAs over 1,000,000: grade separated, priority signaled,
2) CMAs between 500,000 and 1,000,000: reserved lanes/ROW, but may not have signal priority or be grade separated.
3) CMAs under 500,000, but over 200,000 BRT with reserved lanes.
4) CMAs under 200,000 Regular bus service with express/frequent service as needed.

This would help city and transit planners better design their transit such that it actually works well for the size of the city.

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

As much as people believe money is distributed subjectively between provinces, it largely isn't the case. If the CIB comes back and says Banff-Calgary-Airport rail is viable with a half billion dollar subsidy lets say, I think the three levels of government would split it.

Maybe.

a third a third a third is now often a tenth a quarter the rest

[MalcolmTucker]

^ For the Soviet Union, where the cities were largely either: blank slates devastated by way, or built with very similar principles and constraints metrics like that work. For Canada, the constraints we set for ourselves against mass expropriation or the reallocation of public space from cars to exclusive transit use, makes other solutions necessary.

[Hybrid247]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Again. Don't see the case to tie a Barrhaven extension to a Kanata extension. They aren't related in any way that has to do with transit. They might be related due to local politics.

Also the costs are huge. Fallowfield is probably closer to $2B. Terry Fox is going to be a billion. Those aren't small numbers.

I personally can't see both being built at the same time. I think politics will decide which one gets prioritized. And it will be interesting to see which one wins out. Personally, I'm rooting for Fallowfield because of the VIA integration and because the redundancy with the Trillium Line, let's us plan for that upgrade. I think it will be much easier to sell a Fallowfield extension in the 2020s, as part of an integrated network.

I suspect any Kanata extension is going to be a massive undertaking in its own right going till Stittsville. And probably isn't happening in the 2020s.

I agree that Stittsville and Barrhaven Town Centre probably aren't getting built until the early 2030s. I can't see the entirety of the $5B cost being funded until then. But ~$2.8B? ($710M for Terry Fox, $2B for Fallowfield + inflation). Maybe. It's still a big number, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities. Ford might feel compelled to promise funding as part of his next election campaign, and ideally it'd be a plan that brings service to two of his ridings instead of just one.

If I have any concerns it's with the feds, as the Gatineau LRT will probably take priority for federal dollars in the region. But the feds have also been on a transit funding spree so who knows. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

With BRT being built in London, and K/W having an LRT, yet Victoria and Halifax not even thinking about any real RT it makes me wonder what the best metric is for basing building RT.

Halifax has a rapid transit plan and bus-only lanes. The first BRT routes with limited stops and signal priority (MetroLink) started service around 2005.

I think the biggest issue with LRT in Halifax is there is no particularly good single route for it to follow. It's not surprising the transit planners went for a somewhat complicated system of 4 corridors plus ferries. I could see something like the green line becoming an LRT-like service one day.

Am I the only one who dislikes the trend away from surnames as place names and toward full names? Larry Uteck, John Savage, Ruth Goldbloom, etc.?


https://www.halifax.ca/transportation/halifax-transit/plans-reports


Source

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

I agree that Stittsville and Barrhaven Town Centre probably aren't getting built until the early 2030s. I can't see the entirety of the $5B cost being funded until then. But ~$2.8B? ($710M for Terry Fox, $2B for Fallowfield + inflation). Maybe. It's still a big number, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities. Ford might feel compelled to promise funding as part of his next election campaign, and ideally it'd be a plan that brings service to two of his ridings instead of just one.

If I have any concerns it's with the feds, as the Gatineau LRT will probably take priority for federal dollars in the region. But the feds have also been on a transit funding spree so who knows. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Yeah. But why would the federal Liberals play ball if they've already won in 2021? We're talking about the home ridings of Pierre Poilievre federally and Goldie Ghamarie provincially. I can't imagine the feds are all that eager to help them out. LOL. But integration with VIA may just be enough of a motivator to get Fallowfield done.

I just think ~$3B is a big ask on top of bridges and Gatineau LRT, for the 2020s. That's something like $6-8B in projects for a region of 1.4M over 8 years. Tough sell. I think a lot of that shifts right, beyond 2030.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

Halifax has a rapid transit plan and bus-only lanes. The first BRT routes with limited stops and signal priority (MetroLink) started service around 2005.

I think the biggest issue with LRT in Halifax is there is no particularly good single route for it to follow. It's not surprising the transit planners went for a somewhat complicated system of 4 corridors plus ferries. I could see something like the green line becoming an LRT-like service one day.

Yeah, much as I'd love to see LRT on Barrington, it's just not feasible. That said, I think the federal and provincial governments could do with some funding to help make the BRT better. Funding for better stop with shelters, bike storage, real time information systems, curb cut-outs, attractive paving and electric buses with Oppchargers at major stops. Halifax could actually be quite the medium city LRT showcase.

Originally Posted by someone123

Am I the only one who dislikes the trend away from surnames as place names and toward full names? Larry Uteck, John Savage, Ruth Goldbloom, etc.?

Depends. I kinda wish Pearson airport kept Lester's first name.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yeah. But why would the federal Liberals play ball if they've already won in 2021? We're talking about the home ridings of Pierre Poilievre federally and Goldie Ghamarie provincially. I can't imagine the feds are all that eager to help them out. LOL. But integration with VIA may just be enough of a motivator to get Fallowfield done.

I just think ~$3B is a big ask on top of bridges and Gatineau LRT, for the 2020s. That's something like $6-8B in projects for a region of 1.4M over 8 years. Tough sell. I think a lot of that shifts right, beyond 2030.

In my head, the bridges and the Gatineau Tram go hand in hand. I'm sure the Feds will go with Wellington surface however, for cost and the loop (which gives the system more capacity anyway).

The Kanata extension serves Liberal Karen McCrimmon's Kanata-Carleton riding. It was a new riding in 2018, but I could see it being a battle ground, so Eagleson or Terry Fox, just to say they got it there, is plausible.

I could see the Province and Feds get the Barrhaven extension to Fallowfield. Although they are on opposite political spectrums, they do work well together on certain issues.

[Truenorth00]

I think the big problem in Ottawa is that the mayor said Ottawa was fiscally tapped out after Stage 2. He wanted the province and feds to pick up 100% of Stage 3. That's gonna be really hard for those governments with their deficits in 2021. This is why I think there's going to be a lot of prioritization.

And I keep going back to this, but from the federal perspective, electrification is a substantial priority for their investment. They would rather delay the Barrhaven or Kanata extension by 5-10 years than delay the full electrification of OC Transpo's fleet. Regardless of who wins the coming Fall election, I expect accelerating the electrification of 20 000 transit buses and 50 000 school buses in the country will rocket up the priority chain. This incidentally also lines up with the feds industrial goals, since Canada has three domestic companies building electric buses and other companies (like BYD) also setting up here.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yeah. But why would the federal Liberals play ball if they've already won in 2021? We're talking about the home ridings of Pierre Poilievre federally and Goldie Ghamarie provincially. I can't imagine the feds are all that eager to help them out. LOL. But integration with VIA may just be enough of a motivator to get Fallowfield done.

I just think ~$3B is a big ask on top of bridges and Gatineau LRT, for the 2020s. That's something like $6-8B in projects for a region of 1.4M over 8 years. Tough sell. I think a lot of that shifts right, beyond 2030.

If people keep expecting more the funding has to go further and further into the future. There isn’t the capacity to build more - the construction industry is pretty close to capacity.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think the biggest issue with LRT in Halifax is there is no particularly good single route for it to follow. It's not surprising the transit planners went for a somewhat complicated system of 4 corridors plus ferries. I could see something like the green line becoming an LRT-like service one day.

Green Line up and down Robie seems like a pretty straightforward LRT line sometime in the future. Eventually.

Originally Posted by someone123

Am I the only one who dislikes the trend away from surnames as place names and toward full names? Larry Uteck, John Savage, Ruth Goldbloom, etc.?

An easy solution is to simply not name places and things after people.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think the big problem in Ottawa is that the mayor said Ottawa was fiscally tapped out after Stage 2. He wanted the province and feds to pick up 100% of Stage 3. That's gonna be really hard for those governments with their deficits in 2021. This is why I think there's going to be a lot of prioritization.

And I keep going back to this, but from the federal perspective, electrification is a substantial priority for their investment. They would rather delay the Barrhaven or Kanata extension by 5-10 years than delay the full electrification of OC Transpo's fleet. Regardless of who wins the coming Fall election, I expect accelerating the electrification of 20 000 transit buses and 50 000 school buses in the country will rocket up the priority chain. This incidentally also lines up with the feds industrial goals, since Canada has three domestic companies building electric buses and other companies (like BYD) also setting up here.

100% upper level funding has been pretty standard in many other cities. That's been the GTHA deal for years. That's what Quebec City is getting. Municipalities in the Montreal area aren't paying a dime for the REM (which has its own beast of a funding formula with CDPQ).

Ottawa wants in after paying more than a third for over a decade (mostly due to bad estimates).

If bus electrification takes priority, than the Feds should step-in and fund our proposed BRT lines with built-in charging equipment.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Depends. I kinda wish Pearson airport kept Lester's first name.

Pretty sure it's still there in the official name.