Population projections for London

[jammer139]

Two years worth of roads being dug up (Dundas, King, Talbot, York) have closed and driven away many business downtown. Hopefully we have that in the rear view mirror going forward but sadly I suspect not. Increased residential density will bring back some business but only if there is stability around the road network infrastructure. Never ending road closures drives people away.

[Spoofy]

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[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Blitz

It's so tiring how you bash the other small cities in the region even though every city in this region (including London) has been struggling economically for a while now. You hold onto tired stereotypes from the '80s and '90s since you haven't even lived here in 30 years. Just because a city has a more industrial heritage, that does not make it cringeworthy. The character of the urban neighbourhoods in Windsor and Hamilton blow away anything you see in London. It's a matter of perspective. Unlike you, I have actually lived in downtown London for the past 10 years. It has changed a lot just during that period (and not for the better) and it has changed even more since you last lived here.

Contrary to popular belief, I actually kind of like Windsor and Hamilton. They have real downtowns, history, nice neighbourhoods, and a cool gritty kind of urban vibe. It's Kitchener I really can't stand which has always struck me as a suburban wasteland with no character and just a bunch of bland cities tied together by an expressway.

Reality and perception, however, are 2 very different things and all the cities I mentioned suffer from varying degrees of a bad reputation whether it's fair or not. Old stereotypes die hard. It's much like how Easterners tend to view Calgary as yahoo redneck Cowtown or Edmonton as boring Edmonotone. or Vancouver as home to the pot smoking Hippies when in reality it's now quite a staid and sterile kind of place.

[tyeman200]

Originally Posted by Blitz

It's so tiring how you bash the other small cities in the region even though every city in this region (including London) has been struggling economically for a while now. You hold onto tired stereotypes from the '80s and '90s since you haven't even lived here in 30 years. Just because a city has a more industrial heritage, that does not make it cringeworthy. The character of the urban neighbourhoods in Windsor and Hamilton blow away anything you see in London. It's a matter of perspective. Unlike you, I have actually lived in downtown London for the past 10 years. It has changed a lot just during that period (and not for the better) and it has changed even more since you last lived here.

Agreed. Whenever I ask people about London, most of them cringe. Or a lot of people always leave London. It's too conservatitve of a ckty IMO, no one wants progress and everyone thinks you have to adhere to them (IE. the whole stupid thing with Airbnb and having restrictions, thats just dumb) or they go out and complain. & Council will listen to all these whiners before facts and logic, which is why we don't have LRT or a decent BRT system once its done. We can't even get highrises around Victoria Park, you have people complaining about it too. The only way this city will start to get my respect is when they step up for once and make decisions that will actually make a positive impact for the city, and not listening to every citizen who complains because they don't like change.

[ssiguy]

Amazing how one month can make such a difference.

With the economy collapsing and immigration coming to a screeching halt, all projections are off. Once booming London will be lucky to see population growth of 0.3% per annum starting this quarter. Many cities in Canada will have population decline.

With no immigration, a rising death rate due to the virus, and people naturally having fewer kids during times of economic crisis, Canada could see a year-over-tear population decline for the first time in her history.

[jammer139]

A significant amount of London's recent pop growth is attributable to migration from other regions notably the GTA. Most immigrants locate in the GTA and Vancouver historically and that number will definitely take a hit with the current health crisis.

[ssiguy]

That's true about London but as the GTA population growth comes to a screeching halt and real estate prices begin to fall and then plunge, the possibility of "cashing out" and moving to other areas like London is far less appealing.

[jammer139]

2021 Census prep is well under way.


https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/consultation/index-eng.cfm


Given the above avg pop growth London and area has seen in last few years it would not be surprising to see London jump from 384K to 410K. Other parts of Middlesex should also see jumps. I think the trends in counties like Huron, Bruce for stagnant flat population growth have continued.


Looking forward to seeing the numbers when they are released post census.

[ssiguy]

^^^^^ If you look up the Census Metro estimates released Jan/20, follow the links to break down the numbers further. The population estimates are broken down into economic regions, divisions, and subdivisions {ie London economic region, Middlesex County, City of London}. It has the populations of every city & town in the country updated and posted by year.

As of July 1 2019, the CMA of London had 545,000 of which the City had 426,000.......it's already blown way past your 410,000 forecast and now a year later is probably at about 435,000.

[jammer139]

That would imply over 50,000 new residents in London in 5 years. an avg of 10,000 per year.


Would be unprecedented in London's history if the estimates hold up. The census will tell the tale and provide hard numbers.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

^^^^^ If you look up the Census Metro estimates released Jan/20, follow the links to break down the numbers further. The population estimates are broken down into economic regions, divisions, and subdivisions {ie London economic region, Middlesex County, City of London}. It has the populations of every city & town in the country updated and posted by year.

As of July 1 2019, the CMA of London had 545,000 of which the City had 426,000.......it's already blown way past your 410,000 forecast and now a year later is probably at about 435,000.

[ssiguy]

Yes, London is growing faster now than in a generation. One has to remember thou that stats released from any census doesn't include the presumed level of about 3% under count.

[jammer139]

Would be a shock to many Londoners to hear that the city has added more people then the entire City of St Thomas in the last 5 years. Imagine everyone who lives in St Thomas relocating to London in just 5 years. Folks wouldn't believe it.

[K85]

[jammer139]

Middlesex County also looking at population growth and planning impacts. LFP article - https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/robu...nty-will-bring-housing-challenges-report

[ssiguy]

Middlesex county will continue to grow quickly and the county has not planned for it. The road system is the same as it was 30 years ago. They have introduced a very rudimentary local bus service but is of little practical use.

Middlesex needs to improve it's highways especially Glendon to 402 and create a viable transit connection system to London and ditto for St.Thomas and Ingersol. Strathroy is now one of the largest towns/cities in Canada without any form of municipal transit service.

[MolsonExport]

Anyone care to speculate for the long-range population forecast? Say, by 2050 (when I will be 81 years old)? 700K in and around London, maybe? Still no rapid transit?

[ssiguy]

700,000 for the metro by 2050 is way off base.

Greater London is already at 560,000 and one of Canada's fastest growing cities. Even if the population growth rates falls significantly down to 1% that would still take the metro well over 800,000. The 3 counties of Middlesex, Elgin, and Oxford which are basically London commuter sheds already have 720,000 and at 1% in 30 years they will be close to 1.1 million.

[Djeffery]

I think we will have rapid transit, but whether it goes beyond what is currently approved, I have no idea. I think the city will be arguing about whether to expand BRT to what our recent plans included, or whether to convert the existing (by then) BRT to LRT.

Of course, the location of our new NHL arena is going to play a big role in that discussion too lol.

[MolsonExport]

^parked right above the new underground LRT station at the forks.

[Djeffery]

I think they will just build the arena on stilts over top of the forks instead of that stupid lookout bridge they talked about lol.