DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Just trying to help laniroj calm down

It was called "Project Charlie Brown"

Colorado Economic Development Commission members voted without opposition on Thursday to offer as much as $24.8 million in job-growth incentive tax credits to the unnamed company... is looking to create a central campus to house some of those functions and, most importantly, to be home to four different business units now located elsewhere in the U.S.

Medtronic's plans for 42-acre campus in Lafayette approved by City Council
Mar 3, 2021 By James Rodriguez – Reporter, Denver Business Journal

Lafayette City Council voted Tuesday evening to approve Medtronic's plans to build a major campus on a 42-acre site at the northeast corner of U.S. Highway 287 and Dillon Road, where the biotechnology giant said it will consolidate many of its Boulder County-based employees while expanding its local presence with up to 1,000 new, high-paying jobs.

Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) is partnering with Ryan Companies to develop and build the campus. At full buildout, the campus will total just under 600,000 square feet and include new office, training and research and development space. It's projected to house more than 2,000 employees, with three connected five-story buildings and a three-story parking structure.

BTW, Ryan Companies has a BIG presence in Phoenix but since their headquarters is in Minneapolis, MN, they have no-doubt worked with Medtronic - whose U.S. headquarters is in Minnesota - before on their facilities construction.

Louisville's loss was Lafayette's gain. laniroj was (of course) totally right about Louisville's stupidity in losing a gem of moderate mixed-use density.

It's a Go


Source

City Council approved on Monday new building guidelines for a patch of grass and dirt at 4700 E. Evans Ave., next to I-25, that allows a mix of homes, businesses and offices. But the only thing currently planned for the space is a Carvana used-car dealership with an 80-foot parking tower that the company markets as a “vending machine” for vehicles.

[wong21fr]

Missed it. Flew out to North Dakota on the 15th to train up to deploy to Iraq for a bit of that event. They had just dug out of the epic blizzard they had a week or so prior and the snow was still 3 or 4 feet high but everything was open. Flew back at the end of March and the snow was mostly gone by then.

Then the deployment was delayed for a year so missed out on the initial invasion portion of the war as well, though I did get there as the insurgency exploded.

2000’s. Good times all around.

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I assume you knew this site was 'for sale' since August 2019 by RE/MAX NORTHWEST for $3.3 million and is now UNDER CONTRACT.

Sounds like Condos? (Here's to sketchy millennial bros)

I truly fail to understand what calling "millennial bros" sketchy has to do with anything about anything.

Are you just now finding out that international investors are involved in Denver real estate?

[Ich]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

I truly fail to understand what calling "millennial bros" sketchy has to do with anything about anything.

Are you just now finding out that international investors are involved in Denver real estate?

He was referencing an earlier post by another user who called them some sketchy millennial bro investor lol

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by twister244

So, was anyone here in Denver for the 2003 blizzard? The models coming out today are leaning hard into Denver getting potentially over 2 feet of snow this weekend.......

I bring this up as I have been in Denver since 2015 and know how historic that storm was.

It is one of the best memories of my life. I was living in Cap Hill at the time. My friends and I decided to play a game of tackle football on the basketball courts of Morey Middle School. On our way there a random group of complete strangers launched a snowball ambush against us and we ended up in an epic snowball fight. We invited them along to our coed football game which slowly grew into a major neighborhood event. Everyone who walked by would stop to laugh at our antics, and of course some of them would ask to join and the event would grow. Of course alcohol and weed were involved. We eventually termed it “blizzard drinking.” There was a crowd that gathered just to watch and drink. One guy brought a boom box and blasted 99.5 The Mountain (which was a much different, and much better station back then.) At one point the DJ played I Want You / She’s So Heavy by the Beatles - which I was shocked to hear on the FM radio because that’s not one that ever gets radio play. For a couple minutes while that song was playing the snowfall stopped and everyone stopped playing football and listened. Then the snow started pouring down again and the football resumed.

When it started getting dark, a bunch of us trounced over to Streets of London - which we were all shocked to find was open - and the party resumed.

On the last night of the blizzard we somehow ended up at that hippie bar on Colfax and Emerson (which I believe still exists and still has the same name). When we walked in it was oddly quiet and everyone was staring at the TV. Apparently the United States had just started bombing the hell out of Iraq. It felt like the whole blizzard/party ended in that instant. The next day we would have to go back to work and re-enter the real world, which was now much more uncertain.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

On the last night of the blizzard we somehow ended up at that hippie bar on Colfax and Emerson (which I believe still exists and still has the same name). When we walked in it was oddly quiet and everyone was staring at the TV. Apparently the United States had just started bombing the hell out of Iraq. It felt like the whole blizzard/party ended in that instant. The next day we would have to go back to work and re-enter the real world, which was now much more uncertain.

Yeah I remember the Iraq war started during that snowstorm. I was up in the mountains during the whole thing and remember seeing cars completely buried in snow that were stuck on the highway.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

2000’s. Good times all around.

Funny thing is, I actually do look back fondly on that time. As shitty as the 2001-2010 period was, we still somehow managed to make the last decade so much worse.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

• Video Link

Thanks for sharing, great nostalgic video. I was one of the poor (nay, dumb) bastards stranded on I-25 in transit from C Springs back to Denver when everything shut down. Sheltered in Monument where it seemed like 10 feet of snow. What a day, what a storm!

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Louisville's loss was Lafayette's gain. laniroj was (of course) totally right about Louisville's stupidity in losing a gem of moderate mixed-use density.

AND the Medtronic development could have been psuedo TOD with close access to HWY 36. Instead it's up north in the boonies at a vehicle dependent location. I just hope Lafayette continues to provide a mix of low and high density housing for all these jobs - they've done a pretty good job of allowing moderately dense and even some fairly high density housing. The thought in Colorado that we can bring all these great jobs to our State but not produce corresponding housing units for them is asinine. We spend how many tens of millions (hundreds?) in job incentives every year to attract new companies with new jobs? Meanwhile the State offers a $10 million annual housing credit in totality and maybe $20-$30 million through trickle down state funding - comical.

[DenvertoLA]

during the 2003 blizzard I had just gone back to school from being off track (back when DCS had a year round system) and then they closed school for a week!

What a great time

[TakeFive]

A little housing humor for your pre-storm prep

Does anyone recall any of my statistics rants?

Denver Home Prices Overvalued, Report Says
JULY 9, 2020 By Michael Roberts - Westword

But a new report contends that metro home prices are seriously overvalued and predicts that they'll decline nearly 10 percent by the spring of 2021.

That's among the takeaways in the latest analysis from California-based CoreLogic. While the study's authors acknowledge that Denver home prices are still on the rise overall, they expect that to reverse in a big way over the coming months.

Soaring home prices are starting to alarm policymakers
03/08/2021 By Katy O'Donnell - Politico

The last time the U.S. saw such skyrocketing home prices, the ensuing crash brought down the global economy.

Meanwhile, a glut of millennials — the largest generational cohort in the country consisting of those born from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s — is reaching the prime age for buying first homes, and regional data suggests the pandemic spurred plenty of them to pick up stakes and head for the suburbs.

It's interesting how easily 'numbers jockeys' can be misled; how easily it is to use statistics to mislead - whether intentionally or not. It's obvious too many people that have become statistics obsessed have never taken 'my course' on "How to read the Tea Leaves" or my assertion that "Context is Everything."

Thank You for Your Service

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Missed it. Flew out to North Dakota on the 15th to train up to deploy to Iraq for a bit of that event. They had just dug out of the epic blizzard they had a week or so prior and the snow was still 3 or 4 feet high but everything was open. Flew back at the end of March and the snow was mostly gone by then.

Then the deployment was delayed for a year so missed out on the initial invasion portion of the war as well, though I did get there as the insurgency exploded.

2000’s. Good times all around.

This is the first time I became aware of your having this experience in your background.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by Ich

He was referencing an earlier post by another user who called them some sketchy millennial bro investor lol

The plan is for a bunch of 4 bed/4bath, 900 square foot and 5 bed/5bath, 1,100 square foot apartments according to BusinessDen. I am utterly intrigued. Must be some hostel/dorm style living thing.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

The plan is for a bunch of 4 bedroom, 900 square foot and 5 bedroom, 1,100 square foot apartments according to BusinessDen. I am utterly intrigued.

A touch of London for Denver? What's not to like? I thought that, at the least, it might be good to know London better?

A Renter’s Life in London: The Inside Scoop
By Claire Bock - Apartment Therapy

Here is an American ex-pat’s perspective on London neighborhoods.

Islington

• Lots of Georgian style houses and smaller apartment buildings. There is a mix of families and young professionals.

Shoreditch

• Types of Rentals: Lofts and new build flats filled with hipsters, artists, and city bankers.
• Known For: Nightlife and street art all built around several streets making up the famous Shoreditch triangle.

Borough and Southwark

• Types of Rentals: New builds and lofts mixed with homes built post WWII.
• Known For: A haven for foodies with Borough Market and Maltby Street Market

Image credit: Chris Seddon via Apartment Therapy


Image credit: Pablo via Apartment Therapy


Image credit: Nick Hawkes via Apartment Therapy

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

5 bed/5bath, 1,100 square foot

Is that a typo? 200 sf per bedroom/bathroom is a small hotel room, with what, a 100 sf shared kitchen. Would love to see that floor plan.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

[SIZE="3"]

Soaring home prices are starting to alarm policymakers
03/08/2021 By Katy O'Donnell - Politico
.

This shouldn't be news to anyone, its been the same old story since 2015/16.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

This shouldn't be news to anyone, its been the same old story since 2015/16.

I think you're going to see prices level off a bit this upcoming year (one would hope) given the rising mortgage rates and bond yields. We need it..... Denver can't sustain this rise in prices.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

This shouldn't be news to anyone, its been the same old story since 2015/16.

Yes, basically that's true.

But there is little to no corollary between now and 2005/2006. That was a unique period of 'fake' demand driven by a fraudulent tsunami of NINJA loans supported by a derivative based greedy Wall Street which resulted in excessive supply.

Today, the demand is real and the supply has been constrained.

Originally Posted by twister244

I think you're going to see prices level off a bit this upcoming year (one would hope) given the rising mortgage rates and bond yields. We need it..... Denver can't sustain this rise in prices.

I hope you're right - that we get by with an 'adjustment.'

I'm getting nervous that we may be closer to a 'tipping' point. When the bond markets get jittery then so do I.

I suspect the Dems may get smacked from a couple of directions that will surprise and leave them babbling. I wouldn't be shocked if in 2022 the country takes an even harder turn towards the Right (not a good thing).

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by twister244

I think you're going to see prices level off a bit this upcoming year (one would hope) given the rising mortgage rates and bond yields. We need it..... Denver can't sustain this rise in prices.

Generational housing shortage of all types. I'll say it til I'm blue in the face. We produce roughly half as much housing units as a percentage of overall population as we did 50 years ago - HALF AS MUCH - at a cost that is (depending on your market across the country) between 4x and 8x more expensive as a multiple of median income than when Boomers or the Silent Generation bought their first homes (skilled trades shortage, zoning restrictions, and reduced sprawl all feed into this).

Until the statistics (which are not manipulated even though TakeFive thinks they are) meaningfully change, housing prices will not drastically move downward. This is a generational issue and until significantly more housing is built, we are le screwed. We are double le screwed because skilled trades quite literally won't have the capacity to produce significantly more housing for another generation. Tell your kids college isn't necessary and that will help solve the problem, no joke.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

The plan is for a bunch of 4 bed/4bath, 900 square foot and 5 bed/5bath, 1,100 square foot apartments according to BusinessDen. I am utterly intrigued. Must be some hostel/dorm style living thing.

That is a big ass hostel. Call me intrigued as well on what a unit floor plan would look like.

[TakeFive]

Allow me to present the most notorious, historical example.

Originally Posted by laniroj

Until the statistics (which are not manipulated even though TakeFive thinks they are)

2004 - 2006 were the good ole Go Go Days. At the time Loan Officers had an interesting tool in their toolbox. It's called a "stethoscope." First thing they did was check to make sure people had a heartbeat; then they checked their pulse. If they could pass this test then they too 'qualified' to buy a house. Eh, don't worry about the numbers; we'll see to it they look just fine.

They were affectionately called NINJA loans. What could possibly go wrong with a "No Income verification; No Asset verification" loans? What's so bad with a 'few liar loans' being put in the mix?

What about the banks; the mortgage bankers?
Eh, Bankers love a good party as much as anyone. Besides, within 90 days they would sell their loans to Wall Street.

What about Wall Street?
You mean the Greedy Crowd? Wall Street took all these loans; they shaked (sic) them and they baked them until they looked so good they got high Credit Ratings from the Credit Ratings agencies.

What about the Credit Ratings Agencies?
This highly regarded and conservative group (when you boil it down) are a bunch of numbers crunchers. Plus most of the loans were guaranteed by the government.

What about the Government's role?
The quasi government agencies tasked with guarantying loans relied on a system that had worked for a long, long time. Plus the numbers were all there.

Back to Wall Street
Blessed with high ratings and government guarantees these loans were packaged into what was called Mortgage-Backed Securities and sold all over the world.

Can't leave out the tech-bros
What made all this dance so nicely like a good country waltz were the computer programs designed to analyze tons of data and to timely (cough, cough) track the "performance" of loans. Everything was going marvelously. Thanks to an ever accelerating market the few who fell behind were able to easily sell out from under if need be to the next sucker. Dime-store investors not only flipped houses, in many case they merely flipped their contracts to buy.

Why couldn't anybody figure this bubbling mess out?
Because we were in the midst of a growing bubble and until it popped what was not to like? Seems a bit quaint now but it used to be referred to as GIGO or garbage in - garbage out. But didn't anybody look under the covers to see what was there? Nope; too much money being made to care plus - see above.

I was blessed
I had the good fortune of stumbling upon a blog called Calculated Risk where an industry veteran (and his sidekick) explained how the housing market was a growing mountain of poop.

Do you also believe that nobody ever cooks the books; nobody ever embezzles money; no Nigerians ever try to scam people?