Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Antigonish

It isn't simply one or the other though, it's both.

Supply cannot meet demand because demand is skewed due to unsustainably high immigration, foreign buyers, and empty homes. You eliminate this plus reduce ridiculous red tape/regulations and make development more affordable and improvements will be felt pretty quickly.

The other problem is our financial system as a whole but I guess that is a whole other discussion in of itself.

BC has implemented policy to mitigate foreign buyers and empty homes, and it did little, and saying our immigration levels are unsustainable is indefensibly wrong - there is no logical basis for that statement.

So it is primarily one (supply) and not the other.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by milomilo

BC has implemented policy to mitigate foreign buyers and empty homes, and it did little, and saying our immigration levels are unsustainable is indefensibly wrong - there is no logical basis for that statement.

So it is primarily one (supply) and not the other.

What do you mean there's no logical basis for that statement?

How many current Canadians are underhoused, or homeless? Thousands.

Pretty easy argument to make from here - if we cant look after our own already, why would we be bringing in additional people to a sub optimal housing situation?

I don't think we should be curbing immigration, but to think think there is no logical basis is a heck of a stretch.

Look at covid - no immigration, rents have fallen country wide. That's certainly a positive for thousands of Canadians.

I'm a first gen immigrant, and forever grateful for the opportunity to be in this country, but the ridiculous pretending around here that immigration also doesn't come with a mountain of negatives is silly.

There are trade offs and as a nation we should have an educated conversation about it, like any other topic.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by rofina

What do you mean there's no logical basis for that statement?

How many current Canadians are underhoused, or homeless? Thousands.

Pretty easy argument to make from here - if we cant look after our own already, why would we be bringing in additional people to a sub optimal housing situation?

I don't think we should be curbing immigration, but to think think there is no logical basis is a heck of a stretch.

Look at covid - no immigration, rents have fallen country wide. That's certainly a positive for thousands of Canadians.

I'm a first gen immigrant, and forever grateful for the opportunity to be in this country, but the ridiculous pretending around here that immigration also doesn't come with a mountain of negatives is silly.

There are trade offs and as a nation we should have an educated conversation about it, like any other topic.

So we should be giving free housing to the homeless? Keep building until it's all taken care of?

You're the one who's moved out of Vancouver due to the cost of living right?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

So we should be giving free housing to the homeless? Keep building until it's all taken care of?

You're the one who's moved out of Vancouver due to the cost of living right?

And yet the argument for market housing is we should keep building until it's all taken care of...

This isn't 1910 or even 1970, tech and AI is going to eliminate a lot of entry level non-skilled jobs. We just need to figure out how to tax it. Importing a lot of unskilled, young labour is a recipe for future unrest. How many unskilled young men will self-driving trucks eliminate the need for? How far away is that, ten years?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And yet the argument for market housing is we should keep building until it's all taken care of...

This isn't 1910 or even 1970, tech and AI is going to eliminate a lot of entry level non-skilled jobs. We just need to figure out how to tax it. Importing a lot of unskilled, young labour is a recipe for future unrest. How many unskilled young men will self-driving trucks eliminate the need for? How far away is that, ten years?

Getting off your anti-immigrant rant for a minute, how is more supply not required? We've cut off foreign buyers and empty house hoarders with excessive taxes (and more recently, COVID). Prices and rents are still extremely high.

Vacancy rates are extremely low. If there are no jobs, people will stop showing up. I'd worry about that problem if we ever see it.

A natural solution to high prices is more available product. The law of supply and demand...

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by rofina

What do you mean there's no logical basis for that statement?

How many current Canadians are underhoused, or homeless? Thousands.

Pretty easy argument to make from here - if we cant look after our own already, why would we be bringing in additional people to a sub optimal housing situation?

I don't think we should be curbing immigration, but to think think there is no logical basis is a heck of a stretch.

Look at covid - no immigration, rents have fallen country wide. That's certainly a positive for thousands of Canadians.

I'm a first gen immigrant, and forever grateful for the opportunity to be in this country, but the ridiculous pretending around here that immigration also doesn't come with a mountain of negatives is silly.

There are trade offs and as a nation we should have an educated conversation about it, like any other topic.

Canada is an enormous country with barely anyone in it. We have had periods in our history where we have had higher levels of immigration on an absolute basis, let alone as a % of the population. To claim that Canada cannot sustain immigration at levels lower than it has in the past, when we have so much empty land and an abundance of resources is a completely indefensible statement.

If Vancouver can't build enough houses for its population, that's Vancouver's problem, not Canada's.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

A natural solution to high prices is more available product. The law of supply and demand...

whatnext has repeatedly denied the existence of the relationship of supply, demand and price, in a number of contexts. I doubt you'll have any luck convincing him now.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Canada is an enormous country with barely anyone in it. We have had periods in our history where we have had higher levels of immigration on an absolute basis, let alone as a % of the population. To claim that Canada cannot sustain immigration at levels lower than it has in the past, when we have so much empty land and an abundance of resources is a completely indefensible statement.

If Vancouver can't build enough houses for its population, that's Vancouver's problem, not Canada's.

The "barely anyone in it" parts tend to be the parts few people want to live in. Good luck radically upping the population of Flin Flon.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by milomilo

whatnext has repeatedly denied the existence of the relationship of supply, demand and price, in a number of contexts. I doubt you'll have any luck convincing him now.

Let's turn your argument around - if we restricted the supply of cheap imported labour, Canadian companies would have to start paying Canadians more thus ending our stagnant wage problem.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Let's turn your argument around - if we restricted the supply of cheap imported labour, Canadian companies would have to start paying Canadians more thus ending our stagnant wage problem.

Our we outsource to other countries and import goods and services from outside Canada.

India, the Philippines, etc. would benefit by outsourcing that work into those regions. Canada benefits when the work is done here in Canada.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Let's turn your argument around - if we restricted the supply of cheap imported labour, Canadian companies would have to start paying Canadians more thus ending our stagnant wage problem.

If it worked like this then the US would be far poorer than Canada, and the Canada of today would be poorer of the Canada of yesterday, before we let millions of people come in.

It doesn't work like that though. More people mean a larger economy.

Originally Posted by whatnext

The "barely anyone in it" parts tend to be the parts few people want to live in. Good luck radically upping the population of Flin Flon.

Vancouver is a desirable place where lots of people want to live. That's great, it should be celebrated! It does surprise me that people still want to move there despite its astronomical costs, but they still do and the only thing that's going to change that is house prices going up even further, or otherwise making the city less desirable.

Instead of doing that, you could do more to house the people that arrive, by building more houses for the people that do want to come.

I do think trying to direct immigration to some less expensive cities has some merit though. It's a wasted opportunity though for Vancouver if they are denied the economic growth that comes with greater population.

[ssiguy]

The foreign buyers tax is not productive because 20% for people laundering their their ill gotten gains or buying it with a suitcase full of money is simply the cost of doing business. Many also get around this by creating numbered companies overnight and then go on a home-buying spree. In BC there are THOUSANDS of home that the government admits they have absolutely no idea who owns them.

Only a complete ban on foreign ownership and companies will help ease the crisis. In short, bring back housing to what it was originally purposed for..........housing people.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The foreign buyers tax is not productive because 20% for people laundering their their ill gotten gains or buying it with a suitcase full of money is simply the cost of doing business.

The foreign buyer and empty home taxes have loopholes you can drive a truck through. Permanent residents do not count as foreign and it's possible for multiple family members to declare different primary residences, e.g. 2 residences for a legally separated couple. Then there are businesses and those capital gains exemptions.

I'm not saying these holes are bad in that everybody uses them in a nefarious way but in practice I doubt it's that challenging to structure property ownership in a way that avoids these taxes, even for many who spend little time in Canada and weren't born here, and are basically the group Canadians complain about, rightly or wrongly, when they talk about foreign buyers.

Meng Wanzhou (arrested in 2018 and still no decision) has her modest $5M mansion and her nicer $13M mansion. I wonder how much property her well-connected family owns in Canada and what kind of taxes they pay on the properties or would pay if they were sold for a gain.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

So we should be giving free housing to the homeless? Keep building until it's all taken care of?

In essence, yes. I think the provincial and municipal governments should prioritize this issue. Draw redlines, fund enough housing to take care of the problem, and begin proper accounting on the figures. Its egregious that we have something like 60% homeless from outside the City and Province. I understand freedom of movement - but at some point its not Vancouver's problem to be paying for the countries homeless.

From here there's two approaches; as per above seek federal funding to house the countries homeless in BC. Or, make it unappealing to be homeless in Vancouver. Since the second approach is less likely to lead to positive outcomes I would like to see approach one taken.

Its also not normal or ok to have something like 3500 hundred individuals ruin the public realm for the other 2 million. Just because they have problems that require assistance, assistance we should all pay to provide, it doesn't mean they have a free bill to commit crime and chaos. We can, and have to do better.

You're the one who's moved out of Vancouver due to the cost of living right?

Leaving Vancouver, but not because of cost of living, I was fortunate to buy early, make good money, double down into more RE and rest is history. All my local RE has been sold between 2018-2020.

I'm leaving the City because the confluence of factors is making it an unappealing place to live. I spent 22 years here and built two business, I just cant deal with the direction its headed. I think it has a rough decade ahead. I'm not willing to invest more of my life for a City that I think is making horrendous decisions.

I can certainly accept that many wont share that view, and that's perfectly ok, we all vote with our feet and our dollars.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Canada is an enormous country with barely anyone in it. We have had periods in our history where we have had higher levels of immigration on an absolute basis, let alone as a % of the population. To claim that Canada cannot sustain immigration at levels lower than it has in the past, when we have so much empty land and an abundance of resources is a completely indefensible statement.

If Vancouver can't build enough houses for its population, that's Vancouver's problem, not Canada's.

I'm starting to understand who you are as a person.

Everything you say makes sense and sounds great in theory, until you look at reality.

The trope that Canada is a giant uninhabited country is pretty useless when you realize the nature of life in this country.

Its like 95% unserviced wilderness owned by the state. You cant build on it, you cant buy it, you cant start townships, you cant do anything.

The other 5% of land mass is all the cities where 99% of the population lives.

The paradigm we need to operate in is that of reality, the reality is if immigrants are coming they're moving to mostly Toronto, then Vancouver, and then spread among the other big cities.

That's the reality on which you need to base decisions on.

[CityTech]

It makes we wonder if we should start up a large scale development project in the boonies. Build new villages and towns. Something like the historic kibbutz movement in Israel.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by CityTech

It makes we wonder if we should start up a large scale development project in the boonies. Build new villages and towns. Something like the historic kibbutz movement in Israel.

There's no doubt about it.

Decentralization makes so much sense in this country. A lot of these smaller towns and cities could be well thought out with modern technology and a much keener look to sustainable self sufficient infrastructure and modern knowledge of sustainability and future proofing.

Wind, solar, hydro, independent, decentralized and enough to support local growth. Linked by rapid transit corridors.

That would create an economic boom that would last generations.

Then you can double or triple immigration quotas.

But to cram 1.2 million new Canadians into cities that are hovering near 0% vacancy for literally years is irresponsible and frankly cruel to everyone involved.

No excuse after COVID - no one can bring up funding as in issue, this spending would actually have a nearly guaranteed return on investment.

[casper]

Originally Posted by rofina

I'm starting to understand who you are as a person.

Everything you say makes sense and sounds great in theory, until you look at reality.

The trope that Canada is a giant uninhabited country is pretty useless when you realize the nature of life in this country.

Its like 95% unserviced wilderness owned by the state. You cant build on it, you cant buy it, you cant start townships, you cant do anything.

The other 5% of land mass is all the cities where 99% of the population lives.

The paradigm we need to operate in is that of reality, the reality is if immigrants are coming they're moving to mostly Toronto, then Vancouver, and then spread among the other big cities.

That's the reality on which you need to base decisions on.

You can apply to lease or buy crown land. So it is available. The issue is who is interested in procuring it.

[SpongeG]

some articles of interest

What the Chinese scapegoaters didn’t know about Metro Vancouver’s housing boom or crisis

https://www.straight.com/news/what-chine...-metro-vancouvers-housing-boom-or-crisis

Even Foreign Real Estate Buyers Are Dumping Vancouver For The Suburbs

https://betterdwelling.com/even-foreign-real-estate-buyers-are-dumping-vancouver-for-the-suburbs/#_

Nova Scotia sees boom in out-of-province buyers snagging homes sight unseen

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scot...ying-sight-unseen-housing-boom-1.5946827

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by rofina

I'm starting to understand who you are as a person.

Everything you say makes sense and sounds great in theory, until you look at reality.

The trope that Canada is a giant uninhabited country is pretty useless when you realize the nature of life in this country.

Its like 95% unserviced wilderness owned by the state. You cant build on it, you cant buy it, you cant start townships, you cant do anything.

The other 5% of land mass is all the cities where 99% of the population lives.

The paradigm we need to operate in is that of reality, the reality is if immigrants are coming they're moving to mostly Toronto, then Vancouver, and then spread among the other big cities.

That's the reality on which you need to base decisions on.

It's not true that the majority of the country is land you can't build on, the opposite in fact.

But even if it was true, the better policy to locking the doors and putting an end to growth is to reduce policy that restricts development. It should be easy, we just need to want to do it.