DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[rds70]

Some other recent Concept Plan submittals to the City:

The City rezoned this property at 17th and Newton adjacent to Sloan's Lake in 2019:

The project consists of three buildings within the PUD-g-21 zone district. Building 1 is a 16-story, market-rate residential tower structure with a 4-story parking structure contained within. There are 218 dwelling units and 332 parking spaces along with 5,355 sf of ground level retail in Building 1. Building 2 is a 4-story, affordable housing multi-dwelling unit building. There are 157 dwelling units in Building 2. Building 3 is a 5-story, stand alone parking garage with 317 parking spaces to serve Building 2 and the existing adjacent Sloan's Lake Medical Building.

This one is near the Evans light rail station and a block off of Broadway - 1900 S. Acoma:

A 9-story and 5-story building with 268 dwelling units, 15,000 SF ground floor commercial, and 263 parking spaces.

Another Golden Triangle proposal - 1158 Delaware:

12-story Multifamily apartment building with 168 units and 126 parking spaces

720 Grant:

8-story, 111 unit apartment building with 84 parking spaces

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Thanks for the updates! I wonder how many total planned units there are in Golden Triangle. For me, that is one neighborhood that I am interested to watch as we hopefully start to navigate our way out of this pandemic and associated recession

[BG918]

Originally Posted by rds70

This one is near the Evans light rail station and a block off of Broadway - 1900 S. Acoma:

Looks like this will be called "The Oso" and is being developed by Palisade Partners. Same developer as 720 Grant and The Rossonian hotel renovation.

https://www.milenderwhite.com/our-work/the-oso/

[BG918]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Thanks for the updates! I wonder how many total planned units there are in Golden Triangle. For me, that is one neighborhood that I am interested to watch as we hopefully start to navigate our way out of this pandemic and associated recession

Lennar alone is currently building 300 units at 10th & Acoma with another 427 units planned at 11th & Bannock (Evans School) and 389 units planned at 10th & Bannock. So a total of 1,116 units just by Lennar.

Greystar added 301 units in Parq on Speer and has 324 units planned in "Parq II" next to it at 10th & Bannock. So 625 units for Greystar.

Mill Creek Residential has Modera Golden Triangle planned for 11th & Bannock (RMPBS) with 323 units.

Eviva Cherokee opened in 2018 and added 274 units.

Legacy on Speer opened in 2019 and added 324 units.

Summit Capital Venture Group is planning 168 units at 12th & Delaware

So that's 899 units completed in the last three years and another 1,931 planned or under construction. Unfortunately none of these are for-sale condos though there have been some new for-sale townhomes built around 10th & Acoma. I could see a couple taller condo towers popping up with the new zoning.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Thanks for the updates! I wonder how many total planned units there are in Golden Triangle. For me, that is one neighborhood that I am interested to watch as we hopefully start to navigate our way out of this pandemic and associated recession

Sure doesn't feel like there was a recession, moreso just a government induced depression for a few unlucky industries and all of the people who rely on those industries for their livelihoods. It's amazing how quickly we seem to have adapted to a wildly different lifestyle and economy (that's good news). The fact that so much development continues moving forward and good jobs continue being created shows how resilient our economy was and generally is in this country. While it's a tale of two stories, knowledge continues to be power and specialization continues to be wealth. That said, as someone who takes lease-up risk and holds my breath each time units come online, the flow is totally unpredictable now. Some weeks gobs of units fly off the shelves (leases) and other weeks it's winter bird watching in the arctic, which is a significant change from pre-pandemic and even from early pandemic months when leasing was still strong. Not necessarily much worse, but a bit slower, much less predictable, and a little tiny bit worse.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I'm not sure that your characterization of the economic circumstances is really accurate as it assumes that but for the government-imposed health restrictions, there would not be deleterious economic consequences from a widely-circulating virus that has killed half a million Americans.

I think the fact that Sweden suffered comparable economic damage to its locked down Nordic neighbors is one line of evidence against your point. More locally, relatively open states like Florida are experiencing unemployment levels at rates comparable to the national average. Sure, some of the lockdowns in the Spring of 2020 were draconian and caused some economic harm that would have been prevented by our current understanding of the virus. However, we were in the fog of war and between China, the WHO, and the least truthful presidential administration in American history, we were not necessarily set up for success.

Long story short: the virus is the fundamental agent of our economic hardship and, while certain sectors that lend themselves to remote work have fared well, I'm not aware of any national or state economy with widespread disease that has avoided significant economic harm.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

It is also worth noting that we have engaged in 3 trillion dollars worth of fiscal support, which has honestly been the difference between our current situation and economic armageddon. Contrast that Keynesian approach with the more Laissez-faire/Austrian school in Texas where private markets are left to decide whether their balance sheet has enough room for winterizing critical infrastructure. I agree with the vast majority of what you have to say, laniroj, but I just wanted to provide a friendly contrasting opinion regarding the economy.

[TakeFive]

It's also All That Whiplash

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Long story short: the virus is the fundamental agent of our economic hardship and, while certain sectors that lend themselves to remote work have fared well, I'm not aware of any national or state economy with widespread disease that has avoided significant economic harm.

Good points.

A lot of the damage has been papered over from $Trilions in Stimulus. Let's hope that the pending American Rescue Plan by the Dems is the last bridge to normalcy.

Markets are getting nervous; markets are getting whiplashed.

The 10-year T-Bill has been steadily climbing higher. From an average of .75 of one percent last year to now close to 1.3%. While this is still historically low it's not far from doubling over last year.

Axios has an interesting piece on the soaring global debt; that could add to bond market jitters (and interest rates).

OTOH, Diana Olick/CNBC reports that the cost of lumber has doubled over the last three months. Rising interest rates will impact the re-sale housing market the most but it's rising costs of lumber (and other things) that will scare home builders. Ooch!

GM has had to shut down vehicle production due to a lack of semiconductor chips (one of many examples). It appears that fabricators dialed back their expectations from the Pandemic but sales ended up much higher than projected. Hopefully supply chains catch up over time but sooner than later.

Unfortunately, my Perfect Storm is still getting worse.



Source

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by rds70

I posted this Concept Plan review in November:



The 20 story tower will include 150 condo units. The 18 story tower will include 304 apartments. Approximately 20,000 square feet of ground floor retail.

Here are a few renderings:

Wow I can't believe Fox Island is already seeing towers. And to think someone wanted to build a Home Depot on this site (or adjacent) a year ago. This project reminds me a lot of Country Club Towers, but more urban. These units will also have some of the best views in all of Denver.

If Fox Island goes 20 stories, River Mile and National Western get underway, Sun Valley is finished, and Golden Triangle, RiNo and Sloans Lake are fully built-out - all of those things begin to connect around downtown. We're starting to see bigger and bigger projects blanket the city. I think Sunnyside might have a ton of upside left, a la Berkeley 10 years ago.

[rds70]

Modera Golden Triangle - 323 units, 8 stories, construction start 3rd quarter 2021:

[rds70]

A final rendering of the 14 story Hyatt Centric Denver:

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

If Fox Island goes 20 stories, River Mile and National Western get underway, Sun Valley is finished, and Golden Triangle, RiNo and Sloans Lake are fully built-out - all of those things begin to connect around downtown. We're starting to see bigger and bigger projects blanket the city. I think Sunnyside might have a ton of upside left, a la Berkeley 10 years ago.

This reminded me of Ken's old post. (10 years old now? Good God I am getting old.)

https://denverinfill.com/2010/11/cbd-sprawl.html

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I'm honestly not that upset with the scaled down version of Modera Golden Triangle. I just hope the materials are decent.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

This reminded me of Ken's old post. (10 years old now? Good God I am getting old.)

https://denverinfill.com/2010/11/cbd-sprawl.html

I stated writing for DenverInfill March 2011, so coming up on 10 years as well. My how time flies.

[TakeFive]

The Travels of Mill Creek Residential Around Denver

Mill Creek was an 'Early-mover' in Denver; both they and Allied Res landed about the same time and place and built comparable projects.

Mill Creek's Denver story starts in 2012 with a project called The Douglas and DenverInfill was all over it with their New Project post when it was still referred to as 2300 Walnut to the Final Update.

The Douglas Apartments - 2300 Walnut St


DenverInfill

The Douglas was sold by Mill Creek in October of 2014. Their next project was The Casey and again DenverInfill has the Final Update.

Note: all images below (unless otherwise noted) are courtesy of Mill Creek via Apartment Finders

The Casey Apartments -2100 Delgany St


Image courtesy Windsor Communities via Apartment Finders

Mill Creek sold The Casey in April 2016. Next up is Post River North which opened in Fall of 2017.

Post River North Apartments - 1859 28th St



At this point:
Mill Creek changed up their strategy. Rather than seeking larger sites to build ~300 units, they shifted to finding niche sites in appealing neighborhoods to fit their "Modera" brand apartments.
Next up is Modera Observatory Park which opened in January, 2018

Modera Observatory Park - 1910 S Josephine St



Next up is the Modera River North Apartments which opened in August, 2018.

Modera River North Apartments - 2850 Blake St




Modera Cap Hill - 1200 Grant St




Modera LoHi - 2555 16th St



The last project currently under construction and opening Summer of 2021...

Modera Modera West Wash Park - 400 North Grant Street


Image courtesy of Mill Creek via MultifamilyBiz

[BG918]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Sure doesn't feel like there was a recession, moreso just a government induced depression for a few unlucky industries and all of the people who rely on those industries for their livelihoods. It's amazing how quickly we seem to have adapted to a wildly different lifestyle and economy (that's good news). The fact that so much development continues moving forward and good jobs continue being created shows how resilient our economy was and generally is in this country. While it's a tale of two stories, knowledge continues to be power and specialization continues to be wealth. That said, as someone who takes lease-up risk and holds my breath each time units come online, the flow is totally unpredictable now. Some weeks gobs of units fly off the shelves (leases) and other weeks it's winter bird watching in the arctic, which is a significant change from pre-pandemic and even from early pandemic months when leasing was still strong. Not necessarily much worse, but a bit slower, much less predictable, and a little tiny bit worse.

I work in the construction and development industry in Denver. We had no slowdown last year and had higher volume and profits last year than 2019. This year looks to be even better. So yes it all depends on your industry - the pandemic and recession has targeted some while seemingly not affecting others.

[TakeFive]

Side Pocket Topics

Being fascinated by (some) demographic info there's a few new 'releases' worth noting.

Leaving Denver? Here are the top destinations for transplants from the Mile High City
Feb 19, 2021 Rob Powell - Stacker via KDVR31

The top four destinations are within the state.

• 1. Colorado Springs - 2. Boulder - 3. Greeley - 4. Fort Collins - 12. Grand Junction

Top Fifteen out-of-state destinations:

• 5. Phoenix - 6. Seattle - 7. Los Angeles - 8. Houston - 9. Dallas
• 10. Washington DC - 11. Las Vegas - 13. Chicago - 15. San Diego - 16. New York
• 17. Austin - 18. Tampa - 19. San Francisco - 20. Minneapolis - 21. Kansas City

Job migration and the continuing exodus out of California

Note: This was posted in the Austin Business Journal but it's worth looking at the bigger picture so I've selectively edited

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...-in-the-bay-area-exodus-show-strong.html

Research presented by the Bay Area Council Economic Institute shows Central Texas and several other cities are welcoming key white-collar jobs at a notable pace while cities such as San Francisco wave good-bye to them by the thousands. “We had been digging for some time for evidence of this shift from high-priced metro areas to what we’re calling ‘new tech hubs.’

2020 data shows:

... when it comes to the growth of information, finance and professional services jobs... according to the Economic Institute, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Following Austin, Boise saw job growth for those sectors of 2.9%; Dallas, 2.8%; Seattle, 2.3%; Denver, 1.7%; Nashville, 1.2%; San Diego, 0.8%; and Sacramento, 0.1%.

Both San Francisco and San Jose saw jobs decline 2.6% in the information, finance and professional services sectors. At the bottom of the list were Chicago, down 3.9%; Los Angeles, down 6.2% and New York in last place with a 7% decline.

One surprise in the chart was the rather poor showing by Salt Lake City and Miami, two cities that have grabbed national headlines for their success in attracting companies to move or expand in their regions. Miami saw a 2.7% decline in the number of jobs in information, finance and professional services while Salt Lake City saw a 3.9% decline.

Some people tend to hyperventilate over this stuff but the Bay Area has long been an incubator for the rest of the country. Plus, California did have record tax revenue last year.

How's 'peer city' Seattle doing?

Seattle's core apartment market is 'brutal' for landlords
Feb 16, 2021 By Marc Stiles – Senior Staff Writer, Puget Sound Business Journal

Net demand for apartments in Seattle and Shoreline tumbled in 2020 by nearly 7,900 units, according to new data... Unlike a dozen years ago, when the recession tamped down the supply of new units, King and Snohomish counties have a total of 20,000 new units coming this year and next. These are units in lease up or under construction, not proposed...

Year over year in September, rents declined 9.5% in Seattle and Shoreline. For landlords, it's especially bleak in the the core of the city — downtown, Capitol Hill and Pioneer Square. "Rents are down by about 15% in the core, and then they're offering two months' free rent. That's another 17%, so call it 30%. It's brutal what's going on," O'Connor said.

I also read where Boeing is downsizing their Washington footprint but there's apparently instant demand for taking over their real estate.

Good news for the future of our country

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2021/01/26/samsung-austin-stands-out-for-plant.html

Samsung is reportedly looking to make an investment of up to $17 billion in its next U.S. facility, with eyes on Austin, Phoenix and upstate New York as possible sites, according to national news reports.

With automation continuing I'd expect to see manufacturing or fabrication growing within our borders. Access to lower cost power is one key along with a need for fewer workers.

The Bad News for Texas
is that they've haven't yet figured out how to run a reliable electrical grid.
CNN does the fact-checking.

[jhwk]

Originally Posted by BG918

I work in the construction and development industry in Denver. We had no slowdown last year and had higher volume and profits last year than 2019. This year looks to be even better. So yes it all depends on your industry - the pandemic and recession has targeted some while seemingly not affecting others.

Hmm. I am on the design side and our backlog situation is a little uncomfortable. We stayed busy with projects already in the pipeline all year but had a slow winter season. Things have started to pick up in February.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by jhwk

Hmm. I am on the design side and our backlog situation is a little uncomfortable. We stayed busy with projects already in the pipeline all year but had a slow winter season. Things have started to pick up in February.

I should note most of our projects are multi family. We do have somewhat of a gap with new starts this summer but even that has started to fill up. We have also been hiring the entire time and can’t find enough qualified workers.

[spr8364]

Originally Posted by jhwk

Hmm. I am on the design side and our backlog situation is a little uncomfortable. We stayed busy with projects already in the pipeline all year but had a slow winter season. Things have started to pick up in February.

I also am on the design side and our work slowed considerably. We specialize in exercise gyms, and most of our potential projects simply stopped.