DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[The Dirt]

Luckily, now that group living passed, Denver's version of Portland's RIP (Residential Infill Project) will kick off this summer. Unluckily, this will likely be a 3 year process. The hope is that all SU (single family zoning), an unfortunate vestige of redlining and race-based zoning, is eliminated. I'd love to see SU, TU, and even RH zoning removed and replaced with at least MU-3. This will allow for the form in our so-called form based zoning to take a bigger role.

[TakeFive]

Speaking of Tennyson Street - Scroll Up

Conundrum meets Perfect Storm

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

Hey so can anyone riddle me how Denver's home prices are up 18% YoY alongside one of the highest unemployment rates in the country? Has covid made the unemployment numbers irrelevant since everyone moving to Denver is coming in from a white collar job in NYC and SF and thus aren't counted in Colorado's unemployment numbers? Whats going on?!!

Things we know

• The Apartment market is on the soft side. While rents are generally flat YoY, the more recent trend in rents is downward. The typical incentive being offered is 3 weeks free rent.
• The market for condo sales in central Denver is on the slow side.
• Millennials are now age 25 to 38
• According to Realtor.com:

  The median listing price of land in Denver is $482700.

"Money in my pocket" - Who's got it?

• Millennials - many have now been in Denver 5 years or more; their incomes have grown as have their savings
• Tech Bros - With Denver's tech footprint growing you have more people making more money up and down the food chain.
• Don't discount the Stock Market. It's been on a roll of ever higher highs and many millennials have become investors. Chances are, so are their parents

Conundrum Whiplash
When Covid hit nobody wanted to either sell or buy a home. Ninety days later, everybody that didn't already own decided they wanted to buy (only) a Single Family Home. To a lesser degree builders suffered from the same whiplash. Talk about a Perfect Storm.

Building moratoriums
are not a real issue; apartment projects are not what's needed. It's finding single-family or townhome land since that's where the demand is.

Up-zoning
is not the biggest issue. If you think the costs of construction are high... try penciling the costs of redevelopment. If affordable is what you seek, good luck.

Builders are not building enough new homes, even for those who are willing to drive. I suspect it's coming but new developments take time to get going.

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Speaking of Tennyson Street - Scroll Up

Building moratoriums
are not a real issue; apartment projects are not what's needed. It's finding single-family or townhome land since that's where the demand is.

Up-zoning
is not the biggest issue. If you think the costs of construction are high... try penciling the costs of redevelopment. If affordable is what you seek, good luck.

Builders are not building enough new homes, even for those who are willing to drive. I suspect it's coming but new developments take time to get going.

What do you propose as an alternative?

[jhwk]

RTD board meeting is happening right now - Polis has entered the discussion and made it clear that it is the B-line or nothing for RTD’s future plans as long as he is governor.

It sounds like at least some of the RTD board is supportive of paying for a new engineering study. I think it is important that if a new study is done, the decision to use DMU technology and 30 minute frequency is revisited. Electrification and 15-minute frequency is needed.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

What do you propose as an alternative?

Aurora.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by jhwk

RTD board meeting is happening right now - Polis has entered the discussion and made it clear that it is the B-line or nothing for RTD’s future plans as long as he is governor.

It sounds like at least some of the RTD board is supportive of paying for a new engineering study. I think it is important that if a new study is done, the decision to use DMU technology and 30 minute frequency is revisited. Electrification and 15-minute frequency is needed.

Best news for future automated- and electric- single occupant vehicles all week. By the time the Boulder contingent lifts their stranglehold on RTD, there will no longer be any need or desire for RTD regional rail.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

IT does not get talked about enough but the Flatiron Flyer is a fairly large reason why the Northwest rail extension does not make much sense. I would love to see the rail system built but the Flatiron Flyer is a more convenient service. It is faster and goes to more desirable locations. The B Line would not service the CU campus or Pearl St. in Boulder, as opposed to the Flatiron Flyer. If we could build rail at costs comparable to Europe or Asia, then great but that is not the scenario that we find ourselves in.

[Utah_Dave]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Waste Not, Want Not


There are also creatively good ways of handling helicopter money.

Voila
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/congressional-dems-ask-ducey-to-explain-use-of-covid-19-cash1

Off topic - but company required payments for the unemployment insurance fund is where Arizona has a Big competitive advantage over Colorado. AZ is rated 13th (Texas is rated 18th) most favorable to businesses while Colorado is rated 40th. See cool map HERE.

BTW, I recently drove AZ's new Diverging Diamond Interchange. I see where CDOT built one of these in the metro area with the McCaslin Bridge over U.S. 36 at the Louisville-Superior exit. It was really weird at first. As I drove the interchange from all directions I began to get a feel and why it made sense, why they build these gems.

Sorry to interrupt but I do enjoy reading other mountain west forums and I had to comment on the diverging triangle intersection. We have several of these intersections along the Wasatch front and I’m not a fan overall of their use. I think the single point intersection is probably the most versatile intersection, particularly when you have additional stop light controlled intersection close to the major intersection in question. The biggest failure of this type of intersection is in the SLC area where the 201 freeway on the west side of the valley interacts with bangeter highway. If you look it up on a map you will see there is a frontage road that bulges south to create a little distance from the diverging Diamond but it’s still way to close and that new intersection and its constantly backed up, particularly before Covid reduced traffic congestion in the area. The single point intersection would be far superior here. There are some situations I may use it depending on which way the heavy traffic flows but this intersection is too cute.

Just thought I would share with a group of people who might care more then most! Lol

[TakeFive]

Use a shotgun approach (No, we're not talking Ozark on Netflix)

Originally Posted by The Dirt

What do you propose as an alternative?

I have to believe that condos bigger than a matchbox and/or townhomes could be popular if included in the various mixed-use developments.

Examples:

Gates/Broadway Station:

Texas-based Endeavor Real Estate Group and Denver-based Legend Partners have unveiled the name and initial plans for a huge transit-oriented, mixed-use development at Denver’s Broadway Station that will pay homage to the recently-demolished Gates Rubber Factory

This was scheduled to break ground a year ago.

Denver’s Elyria-Swansea getting 700-home development

The new development will include affordable housing and a venue

On Monday night, the Denver City Council approved a rezoning that would allow one of the neighborhood’s first major development proposals. A husband-and-wife development team wants to build about 700 homes and other features on a former call-center site at 2535 East 40th Ave.

That article is from May 7, 2019; what's going on with this project.

This property was purchased in July of 2018


Photo courtesy Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite

What’s new at Loretto Heights?

Westside submitted a rezoning application on Jan. 25, which will be heard by the city’s planning board in March. If the board OKs the application, it will set in a motion a process Westside hopes will conclude with Denver City Council approving the rezoning in May.

SUN VALLEY ECODISTRICT MASTER PLAN


Image courtesy Shears Adkins Rockmore

Stadium District Master Plan


City of Denver

TAVA Waters


Image courtesy Koelbel and Company

New Townhome Community to Break Ground at TAVA Waters
January 27, 2021

Pre-sales began today for Prelude at TAVA Waters, Koelbel and Company‘s new townhome community on the site of TAVA Waters, formerly the iconic Breakers Resort Property.

Prelude at TAVA Waters will feature three distinct floorplans ranging in size from 1,200 to 2,100 square feet, and offering two and three bedrooms... Pricing starts at $465,000.

Old CDOT headquarters turned to rubble, new residential and retail development planned
Posted Jul 02, 2019, what's going on with this project?


Source

TOD
Up-zone the land adjacent to Yale Station; most of the initial re-zoning should be in Unincorporated Arapahoe County. Tremendous potential at this station.

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Aurora.

I guess we could go there next if you're really dying to know?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Utah_Dave

Sorry to interrupt but I do enjoy reading other mountain west forums and I had to comment on the diverging triangle intersection. We have several of these intersections along the Wasatch front and I’m not a fan overall of their use. I think the single point intersection is probably the most versatile intersection, particularly when you have additional stop light controlled intersection close to the major intersection in question. The biggest failure of this type of intersection is in the SLC area where the 201 freeway on the west side of the valley interacts with bangeter highway. If you look it up on a map you will see there is a frontage road that bulges south to create a little distance from the diverging Diamond but it’s still way to close and that new intersection and its constantly backed up, particularly before Covid reduced traffic congestion in the area. The single point intersection would be far superior here. There are some situations I may use it depending on which way the heavy traffic flows but this intersection is too cute.

Just thought I would share with a group of people who might care more then most! Lol

I think I found it. I'll take your word for it.

The DDI I'm referring to is a busy cross street (Happy Valley Rd) intersection with I-17. A dozen years ago they put in a Roundabout which was bizarro. That said a lot of growth has occurred since then with most of the density on the east side with a lot more growth ahead. There is a frontage road on the east side. No question the DDI is waaaay better than that Roundabout.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jhwk

RTD board meeting is happening right now - Polis has entered the discussion and made it clear that it is the B-line or nothing for RTD’s future plans as long as he is governor.

It sounds like at least some of the RTD board is supportive of paying for a new engineering study. I think it is important that if a new study is done, the decision to use DMU technology and 30 minute frequency is revisited. Electrification and 15-minute frequency is needed.

So go from a bronze-plated boondoogle to a gold-plated boondoogle? Great.

I think that Polis needs to have the B-Line hung around his neck sot that when RTD further cuts urban bus routes to pay for this little vanity project he can take ownership of the implicit discrimination against black and brown folks so that white folks can have their choo-choo.

Man, f**k Boulder. If there was ever a city in Colorado that needed a low-level nuke to clear out the offal it's that collection of sanctimonious righteousness. This is the Boulder municipal utility push all over again.


*Now Longmont is getting the shaft on the NW Line (as are all the folks who were supposed to get additional bus service as part of FasTracks, but that's not talked about anymore)... I do feel like something should be done on that front, but really it should be coupled with a push for Front Range Rail.

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Aurora.

This makes more sense than anything he's posted. Funny how long winded he is yet, when asked a direct question, can't when make a bit of sense. Probably dementia.

PS: As someone who's from Boulder, I also say fuck Boulder and their choo choo. (I love choo choos)

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

This makes more sense than anything he's posted. Funny how long winded he is yet, when asked a direct question, can't when make a bit of sense. Probably dementia.

'My dementia' is just one of those things that comes and goes. When it comes, I just go sit in a chair and mumble for awhile. When it goes, I grab my 'thinking cap' and 'get to work.'

Let me clarify what you are saying since I'm a terrible mind reader. Since you are responding to bunt are you actually saying that it is Aurora that is best positioned to solve Denver's housing costs problem? If so, I'd agree this makes a lot of sense.

Originally Posted by jhwk

It sounds like at least some of the RTD board is supportive of paying for a new engineering study. I think it is important that if a new study is done, the decision to use DMU technology and 30 minute frequency is revisited. Electrification and 15-minute frequency is needed.

In order to use EMU's along with having nice frequency would require RTD to have their own Right-of-Way, which is a Fine Idea (that I have previously suggested).

But if RTD needs to rent time/space on Burlington-Northern's tracks then that dog won't hunt.

Originally Posted by wong21fr

So go from a bronze-plated boondoogle to a gold-plated boondoogle? Great.

I think that Polis needs to have the B-Line hung around his neck sot that when RTD further cuts urban bus routes to pay for this little vanity project he can take ownership of the implicit discrimination against black and brown folks so that white folks can have their choo-choo.

I had been thinking that Polis was just playing softball by wanting to show the home-towners he was thinking of them. But it looks like he actually wants to play hardball.

The biggest problem with the B Line were costs. First and foremost it was the projected high costs that Burlington-Northern wanted to share their tracks with RTD. Now if RTD were to be gifted the Right-of-Way to build the B Line that would be HUGE. Since we're talking about Boulder County (primarily) let the esteemed Governor take responsibility for finding/acquiring the needed Right-of-Way.

The next challenge would be whether the ridership projections would be enough to secure coveted FTA grants. If not then RTD would be building the B Line wholly on their own dime.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

IT does not get talked about enough but the Flatiron Flyer is a fairly large reason why the Northwest rail extension does not make much sense. I would love to see the rail system built but the Flatiron Flyer is a more convenient service. It is faster and goes to more desirable locations. The B Line would not service the CU campus or Pearl St. in Boulder, as opposed to the Flatiron Flyer. If we could build rail at costs comparable to Europe or Asia, then great but that is not the scenario that we find ourselves in.

I'm just as upset with Boulder as the next person but I take a different approach. The Flatiron Flyer is great and serves a market need, but BRT doesn't spur the kinds of investment that make a difference. Yes, Boulder is terrible and won't allow growth where jobs are - that is wrong. BUT it is what it is and we have to deal with it. If we had a train to Boulder (and Longmont) it would help concentrate development along the rail corridor but only IF RTD forces local municipalities to upzone along the line. Buses don't attract hundreds of millions of investment dollars, trains do.

To service Boulder, RTD should just buy Pat Broe's entire rail company - it'd be cheaper than building new rail and they could utilize his existing network(s) which already cash flow. RTD and Polis should also force Boulder to upzone if they want the train - dangle the carrot in front of them and force them to contribute to the solution of the massive problem they've single handedly created - then after they pass an upzone, let's elect a republican government who takes the train away from them!

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

To service Boulder, RTD should just buy Pat Broe's entire rail company - it'd be cheaper than building new rail and they could utilize his existing network(s) which already cash flow. RTD and Polis should also force Boulder to upzone if they want the train - dangle the carrot in front of them and force them to contribute to the solution of the massive problem they've single handedly created - then after they pass an upzone, let's elect a republican government who takes the train away from them!

I assume you're referring to OmniTrax's GWR, which doesn't go anywhere close to Boulder- it terminates at Longmont. It might be useful for a portion of the Front Range Rail route, but you're still going to have to deal with BNSF to the north and UP/BNSF to the south of Denver.

[TakeFive]

Per Nathaniel Minor/CPR

https://www.cpr.org/2021/02/10/after-polis-arm-twist-rtd-looks-to-restart-boulder-rail-project/

RTD has about $120 million in a FasTracks-dedicated savings account that could cover the cost of the new studies. But unless a new revenue stream appears — and Polis did not offer one — or costs fall significantly, it’s not clear how RTD could afford construction. The agency is facing significant long-term financial challenges.

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by jhwk

RTD board meeting is happening right now - Polis has entered the discussion and made it clear that it is the B-line or nothing for RTD’s future plans as long as he is governor.

It sounds like at least some of the RTD board is supportive of paying for a new engineering study. I think it is important that if a new study is done, the decision to use DMU technology and 30 minute frequency is revisited. Electrification and 15-minute frequency is needed.

I just want to note how breathtaking that is. Waste billions on a train nobody will use or I will end you.

I would actually be more reasonable if I was a dictator who said east-central Denver subway (which would at least have high ridership and help mitigate growth pressures) or I will end you.

Of course, I'm completely harmless and would never end anybody or anything, but apparently Polis would! He knows exactly what he is doing by making this his biggest issue right as RTD enters its own official financial crisis. This is going down exactly as I suggested, and now just sit back and watch $2-3 billion magically materialize out of thin air. It will probably be mostly public debt because no P3 actually wants to operate a 35-mile rail line to an upscale open space preserve.

If this amount of money is going to magically materialize, the Boulder train is the least bang for our buck while central core subway and airport expansion might be tied as the highest bang for our buck (at that scale).

[BG918]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Aurora.

Look at the map of Aurora. There is literally an area the size of DIA south of the airport and east of E-470 to near Watkins that could house hundreds of thousands of people. Build another dozen Green Valley Ranches. It won't solve the housing affordability issue plaguing the Denver metro but it would put a serious dent in it.

[twister244]

The problem with the B line situation is that it was voted in during the 2004 FastTracks vote. So, on one hand, the voters in along the line, and in Boulder/Longmont have a case for why the train should be completed as they were assured it would happen.

But.... You can also argue they are being completely selfish in the process. They could easily instead compromise for the construction of a dedicated "BRT" lane along US-36 to serve the FF, making it a true BRT. Boulderites want their choo choo, but anytime you ask one of them how often they would actually use it, their eyes begin to gloss over. They could also try to work with planners to re-route the planned route so it hits campus and downtown instead, making it far more useful.

What's really lost is the justification for this train is even worse now than it was pre-pandemic. Before the crap hit the fan, I was taking the bus to Boulder every day to go to our office. Even if the pandemic ended tomorrow, I would only go up there a couple days a week at best because I can work remotely long term now. Do Wed/Fri up in the office, and the rest of the week at a WeWork here in Denver where I am closer to my gym and home. That's the worst part of this, and I don't think Boulder realizes this yet. They rely so much on people hauling ass to/from there everyday, spending money after work at local restaurants/bars, etc. Who is going to want to endure that grueling rat race everyday just to look at the flat irons and maybe grab a cocktail on Pearl Street?

It will be interesting to see how Boulder adapts to this after things open back up, but I sense a permanent change they aren't ready for yet.

[TakeFive]

Prelude

Originally Posted by twister244

Supply..... We just aren't building housing fast enough here. This is anecdotal, in the Jefferson Park and Sloan's Lake area, but the amount of land available to build more "slot" homes and townhomes is quickly dwindling in these areas. My immediate neighborhood in Jefferson Park doesn't have much room left.... I mentioned Jefferson Park and Sloan's lake (south of 20th, north of Colfax). As soon as you get north of 20th and west of Federal, nothing has changed as those houses can't be touched.

I can recall Cirrus with his take making a comparison to Row Houses using Philadelphia as an example. He had a great talent for adding photo links.

There are comparable sites west of Sheridan that come fairly close. Koelbel and Company has also come close with their townhome developments.

With Sloan's Lake and Jeff Park we ended up with more of a mish-mash although as you point out some of it is attractive. I'm okay with "north of 20th and west of Federal" staying much the same. TCR has built a couple of their apartment projects in the area so there's that. I have also suggested that (2-3) blocks closer to Sheridan could be up-zoned.