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View Poll Results: Would you support an EU-like merger between UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand?
Yes 108 53.73%
No 76 37.81%
Don't know 17 8.46%
Voters: 201. You may not vote on this poll

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  #641  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 1:02 AM
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Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
In my travels, I get the distinct sense of distant relations who don't see each other often. You make a little small chat, but other than sharing genetics, you're not really family.

The Aussies and Kiwis have their thing. The Brits and Europe. Us and the Americans. Admittedly, if there's a centre to this whole thing, it's probably the US. Which would be anathema to the whole exercise, if we're being honest.
Though I have to admit that, in my experience (and I've been there), Canadians and the people down under do tend to get along splendidly well when they do get together.

It's almost like that old friend that you haven't seen for years and then when you meet up it feels like you see each other every week, and you'd never lost touch.
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  #642  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 1:03 AM
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I find that Russia and China are overrated. Russia's economy is a little bit smaller than Canada's. China has about 17.5% of the world economy and population. The US was in the 40% of world GDP range in 1960, with no other country being remotely close.
I found it weird that you used a data point from 60 years ago so I googled share of world GDP by country for 2017 and it gave me US 24% and China 15%.
     
     
  #643  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 1:06 AM
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Sure, it's not entirely analogous, but relevant none-the-less. The point I was trying to make is that, at the end of the day, treatment of refugees isn't all that different amongst world-leading democracies and it's but a drop in the bucket when it comes to weighing the overall benefits/drawbacks of a trade, FoM, and security bloc. I would disagree that that alone makes Canada "incompatible" with Australia. Would it be an area of concern? Possibly, yeah, but it's not the deal-breaker you're making it out to be.
Correct. There is a woke view that seems to suggest that immigration, refugee and diversity issues are the makers-or-breakers these days but that's not even close to being true.

We're really, really good friends with lots of countries who treat people like 🞵🞵🞵🞵.

Just sayin'.
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  #644  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 1:12 AM
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I found it weird that you used a data point from 60 years ago so I googled share of world GDP by country for 2017 and it gave me US 24% and China 15%.
The point is that the world today is nothing like it was post-WWII when the US was very dominant (and on a kind of ideological and geographical collision course with the USSR in a way that no major countries are today), yet the way people talk about world politics seems slow to change. I am not trying to pull a fast one on people by comparing the US share of GDP in 1960 to the Chinese share today.
     
     
  #645  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 1:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Hybrid247 View Post
In all fairness, I don't think it's fair to say he can't have valid viewpoint on the matter simply because he doesn't live in Canada.

Biguc is a Canadian who lives in Germany AFAIK. I think he might be originally from BC.

I am generally of the view that anyone is welcome to comment on here, and so even if he weren't from Canada originally, his views would still be OK to share. But of course he couldn't talk in terms of "us".
He tried to make it seem like he wasn't Canadian when he incessantly complains about Colonialism. I too welcome opnions from all, how ever it does seem weird he is so hell bent putting down Australia. Sure there are thing we can all work on but most western Europe countries have colonial history. Shall we start dishing 🞵🞵🞵🞵 out about Germany?The whole thing is getting redundant

Ok so people don't like CANZUK i get it, But must we keep cherry picking and bringing up the flaws our freinds might have? Should our friends turn their back on Canada for selling arms to Saudis who in turn use them to terrorize Yemen? How would Australians and Kiwis feel when they find out about the thousands or murdered and missing aboriginal woman? That crime rate on the prariries is comparable to America and we have a much worse homelesnnes problem than the other CANZUK nations? If we are going to 🞵🞵🞵🞵 on Australia I think the rest of the world should also turn their back on Canada for these disastrous things taking place here.
     
     
  #646  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 2:50 AM
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Originally Posted by casper View Post
This is all about Canada being able to protect it interests in an evolving world. The friction we currently have with China is an example in point. Alignment between Canada and the US exist in most but not all cases. This gives us options.
Precisely.

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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I'd argue that the US is still the only legit tier 1 country in that regard. They can project force around the world in a way that no other country can really match.
I agree. China is definitely closing the gap, but the US remains in a league of its own. In another 2-3 decades, though? We could be looking at a very different global power dynamic with the way things are going.
     
     
  #647  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 6:07 AM
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Though I have to admit that, in my experience (and I've been there), Canadians and the people down under do tend to get along splendidly well when they do get together.

It's almost like that old friend that you haven't seen for years and then when you meet up it feels like you see each other every week, and you'd never lost touch.
Maybe its because we're (my office mates) all representatives of our military environments that we already have much in common. But it seems that us Canadians/Brits/Aussies and Kiwi's just naturally gravitate together much more than we do with the Americans.
     
     
  #648  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 8:42 PM
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Precisely.



I agree. China is definitely closing the gap, but the US remains in a league of its own. In another 2-3 decades, though? We could be looking at a very different global power dynamic with the way things are going.
I think we have basically hit peak China. Their demographic problems will catch up to them quickly. Europe, Russia, Japan will be in a similar boat.

I think the US could go either way. They have huge structural problems, but they also have a dynamism nobody else can match.

Interesting to see if any African countries are able to make the leap. Huge potential but terrible governance.
     
     
  #649  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 8:47 PM
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I think we have basically hit peak China. Their demographic problems will catch up to them quickly. Europe, Russia, Japan will be in a similar boat.
Aside from demographics they now have higher labour costs relative to some other roughly comparable countries and they are hitting diminishing returns from urbanization and importing practices (and IP) from western countries. That is what was responsible for most of their rise, not population growth.

We have seen a few countries converge on developed status but no big ones have catapulted past other wealthy countries.
     
     
  #650  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 9:37 PM
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Interesting article that covers a lot of the talking points we've been discussing:

Quote:
Why the Anglosphere sees eye to eye on China

A group of English-speaking nations is taking a more confrontational approach to Beijing

As a general rule, it is a good idea to be wary of people who bang on about the “Anglosphere”. In Britain, it is an idea that has a strong whiff of imperial and second world war nostalgia about it. The notion harks back to Winston Churchill, who wrote a four-volume History of the English-speaking Peoples.

Now, however, the idea of an Anglosphere is taking on an unexpected contemporary relevance. The trigger is the increasingly assertive behaviour of China, which is bringing together a group of English-speaking countries, all of whom have adopted more confrontational policies towards Beijing. 

The Trump administration started a trade war with China and ramped up naval operations in the Pacific. A willingness to confront Beijing is clearly going to persist, in modified form, during Joe Biden’s administration. The new US president has promised “extreme competition” with China. The first phone call between Antony Blinken, US secretary of state and Yang Jiechi, his Chinese counterpart, was spiky.

However, some of America’s European allies are very wary of what they fear will be a new cold war with China. The EU shocked Biden’s team by signing a new investment deal with Beijing — ignoring pleas for consultation with the US. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, went out of her way in a recent speech to warn against anti-China sentiment dividing the world into blocs. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, has made similar statements.

By contrast, the US is getting more support from the UK, Australia and Canada. These nations have all seen their relations with Beijing deteriorate sharply over the past couple of years. As a result, they are more inclined to take the American view that a rising China is a threat that must be countered.

Australian hawkishness is partly a product of the close links between the security establishments of Washington and Canberra. But it is also a result of China’s imposition of trade sanctions in response to 14 Australian “sins”, identified by China, which included Canberra calling for an international inquiry into the origins of Covid-19. 

Canada’s arrest of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei, in response to a US extradition request, sparked fury in Beijing. Shortly afterwards, two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China and accused of spying. They have essentially been held hostage ever since. Relations between Canada and China are in their worst state since diplomatic ties were restored 50 years ago.

Britain’s view of China has also been transformed over the past year. China’s crackdown in Hong Kong caused an outcry in political circles. The UK has offered a path to citizenship to potentially millions of Hong Kong residents — a move denounced in Beijing. Each week seems to bring a fresh downturn in UK-China relations. The British media regulator has just banned CGTN, the Chinese broadcaster, on the grounds that it is ultimately controlled by the Communist party. China has denounced the BBC for broadcasting allegations of systematic 🞵🞵🞵🞵 in Uighur detention camps. Relations may chill further this year when the British dispatch an aircraft carrier to the Pacific, where it will take part in exercises with the US Navy.

The Chinese government has noticed this emerging Anglosphere. When the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK issued a joint statement about Hong Kong, China’s official response was ferocious. These countries form the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing group, which prompted Zhao Lijian, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, to comment: “No matter if they have five eyes or 10 eyes, if they dare to harm China’s sovereignty . . . they should beware of their eyes being poked and blinded.”

British officials point out that the Five Eyes is not an alliance — its remit does not go beyond intelligence. But there is now discussion of giving the group a more overtly political edge by adding a sixth pair of eyes. Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, has suggested Japan might be invited to join. Many China-watchers in Washington are keen on this suggestion, although the US intelligence community is sceptical.

Japan is not the only Asian nation being courted by the Anglosphere. India is also central to strategic thinking in Washington, London and Canberra — as indicated by the increasing vogue for the term “Indo-Pacific” in all three capitals. The US renamed its Pacific military command the “Indo-Pacific” command in 2018. The Indo-Pacific is also likely to be heavily emphasised in Britain’s new national security strategy, which will be published soon. 

New Delhi has always guarded its foreign policy autonomy. As an emerging superpower it has no intention of being used by Washington, let alone London. 

On the other hand, in what is likely to be seen as a historic blunder, China killed Indian troops in a clash in the Himalayas last June. India’s attitude to China has since hardened considerably — with Delhi pushing through controls on Chinese investments and technology. Technological co-operation is one area where India and the Anglosphere are likely to work together. India is already part of “the Quad”, which brings together the US, Australia, Japan and India for naval exercises

As the US seeks allies willing to push back against China, the Anglosphere plus the big Asian democracies looks like the most promising combination.

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Kind of ironic that Angela Merkel, who is essentially the de facto leader of the largest bloc in the world (EU), is warning against the formation of other blocs.
     
     
  #651  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 9:55 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
I think we have basically hit peak China. Their demographic problems will catch up to them quickly. Europe, Russia, Japan will be in a similar boat.
I don't think they've peaked per se, but they're days of immense economic growth seem to be coming to an end. I would bet on more modest growth going forward as they continue to transition from an industrial economy to a service one.

I haven't given much thought to their demographic situation tbh. I presume you're saying their slowing population growth and aging population are a problem? If so, automation will likely offset some of those issues going forward, as we are starting to see in Japan.

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Interesting to see if any African countries are able to make the leap. Huge potential but terrible governance.
I've been keeping a close eye on Africa as well. Eastern African states seem well positioned to make a leap, especially Ethiopia. Barring a conflict with Egypt over the damming of the Nile, Ethiopia's stabilizing governance and fast-growing economy will likely propel it a top-tier African economy.
     
     
  #652  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 6:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Hybrid247 View Post
I don't think they've peaked per se, but they're days of immense economic growth seem to be coming to an end. I would bet on more modest growth going forward as they continue to transition from an industrial economy to a service one.

I haven't given much thought to their demographic situation tbh. I presume you're saying their slowing population growth and aging population are a problem? If so, automation will likely offset some of those issues going forward, as we are starting to see in Japan.



I've been keeping a close eye on Africa as well. Eastern African states seem well positioned to make a leap, especially Ethiopia. Barring a conflict with Egypt over the damming of the Nile, Ethiopia's stabilizing governance and fast-growing economy will likely propel it a top-tier African economy.
China has been investing and providing aid in Africa.

I think the EU has a warmer relationship with China in general than the US or CANZUK nations. Portugal is the interesting player in all of this When Hong Kong and Macao went back to China, Portugal and China lefts things on fairly positive terms. Recently when it came to the entire issue over 5G, despite pressure from the US, Portugal was open to technology from China.
     
     
  #653  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Hybrid247 View Post
I don't think they've peaked per se, but they're days of immense economic growth seem to be coming to an end. I would bet on more modest growth going forward as they continue to transition from an industrial economy to a service one.

I haven't given much thought to their demographic situation tbh. I presume you're saying their slowing population growth and aging population are a problem? If so, automation will likely offset some of those issues going forward, as we are starting to see in Japan.
If you're automating manufacturing what is the comparative advantage of doing it in China? Their comparative advantage has been a plentiful and cheap labour force.

A good summary of China's demographic problem is here. (You can scroll backwards and forwards in time).

https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/

The one child policy in place until 2015 and the large number of missing women is creating an inverted population pyramid. While this has happened in other countries (notably Japan) it happened when the economy is was at more advanced stage and a pension and elderly care system was well developed. China is getting old before it gets rich (in per capita terms). This will put significant pressure on the labour force and a significant cost burden to care for the elderly.
     
     
  #654  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 10:50 AM
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Very true about the population structure, but it is equally true that China cannot reasonably entertain thoughts of population growth at 1.4 billion -- it's ludicrous, and would be tantamount to accepting the idea that national populations must expand for perpetuity on a finite planet.

Beijing is doubtlessly aware of this, of course, so...I guess I am wondering whether China will achieve the civilizational milestone of finding a way out of this absurd situation where we rightly bemoan our impact on the ecosystem while simultaneously regarding every population situation save expansion as some sort of disaster.
     
     
  #655  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by kool maudit View Post
Very true about the population structure, but it is equally true that China cannot reasonably entertain thoughts of population growth at 1.4 billion -- it's ludicrous, and would be tantamount to accepting the idea that national populations must expand for perpetuity on a finite planet.

Beijing is doubtlessly aware of this, of course, so...I guess I am wondering whether China will achieve the civilizational milestone of finding a way out of this absurd situation where we rightly bemoan our impact on the ecosystem while simultaneously regarding every population situation save expansion as some sort of disaster.
This conundrum will probably occupy a fair portion of the 21st century. We've built a fair portion of our economies as population-based Ponzi schemes, so how that unravels is a real question mark. I may just live long enough to get stuck with that bill.

The concept of China emulating India and having projections of sailing clean past the 2 billion mark on a planet of finite resources seems absurd. I look at India and think 'there's a huge liability', not 'this is good for the future'. I wonder if China can pull of a Estonia/Latvia - have the population shrink but wealth increase per capita. Seems to be about the least terrible option.

As much as the Statistics thread would bemoan the loss of a potential Okotoks of millions, I wonder if stuffing more Canadians in a relatively cold, energy-intensive land is actually the best policy.
     
     
  #656  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by kool maudit View Post
Very true about the population structure, but it is equally true that China cannot reasonably entertain thoughts of population growth at 1.4 billion -- it's ludicrous, and would be tantamount to accepting the idea that national populations must expand for perpetuity on a finite planet.

Beijing is doubtlessly aware of this, of course, so...I guess I am wondering whether China will achieve the civilizational milestone of finding a way out of this absurd situation where we rightly bemoan our impact on the ecosystem while simultaneously regarding every population situation save expansion as some sort of disaster.
I don't think the challenge is necessarily the population decline, it is the speed of it and the lack of preparation. China is going to lose 400 million people in the last 65 years of the century. By 2055 there will be roughly twice as many 60-65 year-olds as there are 0-5 year-olds.

Whether one child was a good idea or not, they should have pulled it back much earlier than they did and had a more gradual population decline.
     
     
  #657  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 11:46 AM
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The concept of China emulating India and having projections of sailing clean past the 2 billion mark on a planet of finite resources seems absurd. I look at India and think 'there's a huge liability', not 'this is good for the future'. I wonder if China can pull of a Estonia/Latvia - have the population shrink but wealth increase per capita. Seems to be about the least terrible option.
India's population is expected to peak around 2060 at about 1.6B, even without aggressive population control. Population growth usually falls on its own with urbanization and female education.
     
     
  #658  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 1:44 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
If you're automating manufacturing what is the comparative advantage of doing it in China? Their comparative advantage has been a plentiful and cheap labour force.

A good summary of China's demographic problem is here. (You can scroll backwards and forwards in time).

https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/

The one child policy in place until 2015 and the large number of missing women is creating an inverted population pyramid. While this has happened in other countries (notably Japan) it happened when the economy is was at more advanced stage and a pension and elderly care system was well developed. China is getting old before it gets rich (in per capita terms). This will put significant pressure on the labour force and a significant cost burden to care for the elderly.
Engineers in china know manufacturing engineering. There was an interview I saw with the CEO of Apple from two-three years ago. He was asked why manufacture the iPhone in China instead of the US. His answer was there are cheaper places to go than China. But the issue with most places, including the US is the lack of infrastructure and skilled engineers who know to build items to high tolerances on a mass production scale. On the infrastructure side it is the supply chain. You pick the correct city for electronics and within a short drive is distribution or other factories doing most of the parts you need.

As for care for the elderly. I don't know how this will work out in Chinese culture. Many of the people living in major cities in China are from rural China and retire back into a rural setting. The economics will be quite different than Canada.
     
     
  #659  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 2:36 PM
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  #660  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2021, 3:38 PM
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Engineers in china know manufacturing engineering. There was an interview I saw with the CEO of Apple from two-three years ago. He was asked why manufacture the iPhone in China instead of the US. His answer was there are cheaper places to go than China. But the issue with most places, including the US is the lack of infrastructure and skilled engineers who know to build items to high tolerances on a mass production scale. On the infrastructure side it is the supply chain. You pick the correct city for electronics and within a short drive is distribution or other factories doing most of the parts you need.

As for care for the elderly. I don't know how this will work out in Chinese culture. Many of the people living in major cities in China are from rural China and retire back into a rural setting. The economics will be quite different than Canada.
That might work for the “mingong” migrant workers (although I am not sure how after 40+ years how practical it will be to go back to ancestral villages, if it even exists). For people who have residence permits in cities they will need to retire there.

I believe Tim Cook was referring specifically to tooling engineers, who presumably will be subject to the same demographic pressures.
     
     
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