DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[TakeFive]

Breaking ground in February 2021


Courtesy MOA Architecture - Ryan Companies via Mile High CRE

https://milehighcre.com/new-age-in-place-community-coming-to-denver/

“The Acoya brand is focused on a premier living style through meaningful experiences that include cutting-edge, high quality programming,” said Rob Leinbach, principal, Cadence Living. “This is the third Class A community under the Acoya brand and our first outside of Arizona — we look forward to continued expansion in the years to come.”

In response to the increased demand for more senior living, Ryan Companies US, Inc. and Cadence Living are expanding the Acoya brand into Denver. Construction will begin soon on a 156,622-gross-square-foot, 137-unit, age-in-place community — the partnership’s third Acoya location and first community in Colorado.

"Near Cherry Creek" this will be high end. Their last project was at Troon in Scottsdale, a high end golf course community. Given that Starwood Capital Group was their equity partner I'd guess the same for this project.

[Ejjwheel]

For whatever reason I have access to this BusinessDen article. It is always nice to see parking lots utilized to improve the neighborhood, whether through infill or adaptive reuse of the space, in this case for a public flex space:

https://businessden.com/2020/12/22/rocki...-from-coors-field-for-public-gatherings/

[Ejjwheel]

The architect that designed the exterior of that Acoya development is also involved in several interesting developments around down, from the tech center to north denver to RINO. Here is one of their potential projects in River North:


https://www.moaarch.com/project/the-charlie-blake/

[ams5280]

Originally Posted by Ejjwheel

The architect that designed the exterior of that Acoya development is also involved in several interesting developments around down

Not all of MOA’s designs are keepers. Looking at their design for the Gates factory, I am reminded of how bad it could have been...

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Bet you've heard of Donald Shoup
or at least his work? In 2005 Shoup authored a book entitled "The High Cost of Free Parking" which basically asserts that it causes higher rents in order to compensate. It's a very popular talking point.

Santa Fe Yards calls for 1,000,000 SF of office space, and almost as much space dedicated to parking. You can’t deny that ‘free’ parking, which as everyone knows isn’t really free, is incorporated into the costs to the developer and passed onto tenants.

Shoup’s is definitely a critique of the car-centric development and planning that needs all that parking, and it really is a shame that the a hefty chunk of new square footage in TOD neighborhoods is parking. I don’t think you can call it a myth that parking is expensive and, when baked into costs of both tenant and developer, creates higher rents even if the market demands it.

Viewplanes: Party Pooper for Denser Development
Speaking of Santa Fe Yards, I got to thinking about how much of Denver’s land that’s zoned for tall buildings and in areas likely to redevelop are In viewplanes for parks surrounded by SFH. Maybe I’m late to the party, but Broadway Station, Cherry Creak, the Stadium District are zoned or set to be zoned for tall buildings when development is still limited by height restrictions. Think we could get Hilltop on board with carving out some of the Cranmer Park viewplane?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's parking-use report will hopefully trigger some new thinking both in public policy and in developer/financier expectations. Sometimes it's useful to have a study.

By "peak" time is it night? That's what counts with housing. If they really mean work hours, maybe referring to potential commuter use, that's another issue.

Peak time is typically measured AM and PM, 8-9AM and 5-6PM. I've done maybe half a dozen traffic studies and all have utilized those time frames.

[TakeFive]

Source


1055 19th St.


Photo courtesy of JLL via Mile High CRE


Greyhound Station block in downtown Denver sold to joint venture
Dec 28, 2020 By James Rodriguez – Reporter, Denver Business Journal

The Greyhound Station parcel — a full city block in downtown Denver that has been eyed by developers for years — sold Monday to a joint venture between Chicago-based Golub & Company and New York-based Rockefeller Group, the companies told Denver Business Journal.

The joint venture has yet to finalize its plans for the 2.5-acre site, but is envisioning a large-scale, Class A, mixed-use development. The parcel offers some of the most generous zoning in the city, allowing developers to go as high as 40 stories for residential, commercial, civic and entertainment uses.

Dave Smith and Laura Newman of Golub & Co.'s Denver office and Tom Weeks of Rockefeller Group led the acquisition on behalf of the buyers.

I suspect that this will move forward at COVID speed or very deliberately. They've yet to decide on an architect which would initiate the planning process.

I was curious about Rockefeller Group so I checked out their website. No Rockefeller's are left which wasn't a surprise. After reading "About" etc I still had a curiosity itch so checked out their Wikipedia page. As I suspected the company had sold and is now a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Estate Co. of Japan. Neither good or bad IMO.

My last guess is that both companies may be looking at this site as a "legacy" investment - for a long-term hold.

As previously mentioned this site had been under contract to Toronto-based developer First Gulf Corp.

But that was prior to the coronavirus pandemic. In the first week of July, local Golub & Co. leaders learned that First Gulf was no longer under contract, and immediately notified the JLL listing team of their interest in the property. By the end of the month, Golub & Co. was under contract for the site, with Rockefeller Group joining the deal later.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Ejjwheel

For whatever reason I have access to this BusinessDen article. It is always nice to see parking lots utilized to improve the neighborhood, whether through infill or adaptive reuse of the space...

You can be our designated BusinessDen ambassador. I still live off a Business Journal work-around I've had for a couple of years.

Originally Posted by Ejjwheel

The architect that designed the exterior of that Acoya development is also involved in several interesting developments around down, from the tech center to north denver to RINO.

For only your 8th post here, you're getting up to speed very nicely.

Originally Posted by ams5280

Shoup’s is definitely a critique of the car-centric development and planning that needs all that parking, and it really is a shame that the a hefty chunk of new square footage in TOD neighborhoods is parking. I don’t think you can call it a myth that parking is expensive and, when baked into costs of both tenant and developer, creates higher rents even if the market demands it.

I understand and fully agree that Shoup is a "critique of the car-centric development and planning that needs all that parking". Essentially, he's making an ideological and political argument worthy of debate. But I have no opinion either pro or con. I'm not interested in this political debate. My forte is really 1) making observations and 2) reading tea leaves.

Tenants are interesting creatures - Aren't we All?

One tenant may love the granite countertops; another the energy saving appliances; someone else loves the color scheme and Pete loves the specific location. There are many, many reasons why a specific tenant will make a specific choice. Gen Z prospects may only care about how nice the amenities are, especially the pool area so they can socialize. Just give him (or her) a place to sleep is enough.

You could survey a thousand tenants and never find one person that made decision or even cared what the developer's cost of garage space is, or granite countertops or anything else. Before you know it apartments become 5 years old or even older. Why would a tenant give two chits what the development cost? What's the rent?

From the developers POV they can wish in one hand... but they know what they'll get is what the market gives them. These software programs do all the thinking; they don't know the construction costs either.

If you want to influence developers then think like they do, speak their language

Trying to sell them something to developers that they aren't buying is a fool's errand. Suggest and try to explain why they are leaving profit on the table or why they are lowering their return on investment. Convince them that they don't need all that garage parking. One thing worth respecting is that developers are risking Million of $'s. They like to think they are making wise and profitable decisions but they also know that Mr. Market can sometimes be a fickle lady.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I'm glad that the Greyhound lot sold. A nice mixed use development there would be a good bridge between Arapahoe Square and the central business district

[rds70]

Originally Posted by BG918

I-25 & Belleview. I've also heard the long-awaited Kimpton Hotel will break ground around the same time at Chenango & Olive. So there will be three projects with tower cranes up in this small area soon.

Here is a rendering of the hotel - 190 rooms, 20 stories:

[TakeFive]

Population growth, 2019-2020

Slowest growth in 120 years, you say. I'm having trouble remembering back that far.

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2020/12/29/nation-population-slows-colorado-and-west.html

Population growth in the U.S. has slowed to its lowest level in at least 120 years, but Colorado and the West have continued to draw migrants from other parts of the country, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.

“These statistics paint a portrait of a nation that is experiencing unprecedented growth stagnation, even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit,” said Brookings Institute senior fellow William Frey in an analysis published last week. “The exceptionally low growth rate from 2019 to 2020 reflects the pandemic’s impact over part of that year.”

Never heard of "Datawrapper" but it's ; it's interactive too. Check it out!

States that have experienced negative growth YOY:

East of the Mississippi
the biggest losers are New York, Illinois and West Virginia. Louisiana and Mississippi also lost population.

West of the Mississippi
California, Alaska and Hawaii all lost population.

States that have experienced the most growth YOY:

On the rainy side of the Mississippi
Both South Carolina and Florida are above 1%. Below 1% includes North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia.

On the sunny side of the Mississippi
Idaho was the pacesetter and in descending order is Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Texas and Washington - all above 1%. Below 1% growth includes Montana, Colorado, So Dakota and Oregon.

Observations
Migration to Sunbelt states and Western states (except California) is continuing a multi-decade trend. Affordability and warmer climates both seem to be good draws. Washington, Oregon and Colorado benefit from being less expensive than California but worth paying a little more than other states.

[bulldurhamer]

12 story apartment building planned for 3300 Blake. 12,000 sq ft retail.

looks like it's going through permitting, but the site is no longer for lease and there's some kind of soil testing or something underway.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Exciting to see more density come to RiNo. What neighborhood are you all interested to see develop post-COVID?

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Exciting to see more density come to RiNo. What neighborhood are you all interested to see develop post-COVID?

River Mile is the most interesting of the proposed new downtown area developments, will be interesting to see that one develop even though it may mean the loss of Elitch's.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

River Mile is the most interesting of the proposed new downtown area developments, will be interesting to see that one develop even though it may mean the loss of Elitch's.

Agree, that has the potential to be the most transformational area over the next decade. This will be a major construction zone in the 2024-2030 timeframe.

I also see the 41st & Fox area seeing a boom of new development in the next few years along with the lots south of Central Park Station.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Exciting to see more density come to RiNo. What neighborhood are you all interested to see develop post-COVID?

The upper portion of Arapahoe Square. It feels like this area will end up being the residential core of downtown that will enable the city to continue to thrive after we lose about 10-20% of the downtown workforce to permanent remote work.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Yeah I imagine that the downtown office crowd will decrease but, even if half of the planned units in Arapahoe Square and GT are built, the residential population in the urban core will skyrocket.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The upper portion of Arapahoe Square. It feels like this area will end up being the residential core of downtown that will enable the city to continue to thrive after we lose about 10-20% of the downtown workforce to permanent remote work.

I agree. After it was rezoned, I imagined what it might look like decades from now and realized, with its location, it has the potential to become Denver's "West End" (Vancouver).

River Mile is exciting too, but I have a feeling it's a very long ways off. And I also have a sneaky feeling market forces will morph it into something more mid-risey and not so high-risey like those dreamy renderings we've all seen.

I was also excited about Next Stage (DPAC), but now I have a feeling it's an even longer ways off or perhaps even dead altogether. That would be a great skyeline extender, and it - along with some future iteration of Bell Tower - would partially fill in the gap between the CBD and River Mile skylines.

[TakeFive]

By Default

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The upper portion of Arapahoe Square. It feels like this area will end up being the residential core of downtown that will enable the city to continue to thrive after we lose about 10-20% of the downtown workforce to permanent remote work.

Most of Arapahoe Square will be residential by default; what else would even go there? Nobody is interested in building office space there; consider the changing footprint for office development over the last decade (outside of the CBD) from Platte St to parts of RiNo. I don't see anyone building new hotel space other than maybe for an adaptive reuse niche.

Dreams of the Past

We have in the past wished for some type of park space combined with retail but it's hard to see that happening now. Perhaps there's a chance for something like McGregor Square or Writer Square which would be totally private (which would include an ability to control homeless). If only there were a vibrant market for condos?

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

I was also excited about Next Stage (DPAC), but now I have a feeling it's an even longer ways off or perhaps even dead altogether. That would be a great skyeline extender, and it - along with some future iteration of Bell Tower - would partially fill in the gap between the CBD and River Mile skylines.

One site I plum forgot about.

I suspect that you're right about any near term potential. There's too much land or sites that are readily available for similar uses that are lower hanging fruit.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Most of Arapahoe Square will be residential by default; what else would even go there? Nobody is interested in building office space there; consider the changing footprint for office development over the last decade (outside of the CBD) from Platte St to parts of RiNo. I don't see anyone building new hotel space other than maybe for an adaptive reuse niche.

More homeless camps of course.


Oh, and weed dispensaries.

[bulldurhamer]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

More homeless camps of course.


Oh, and weed dispensaries.

i bet we can squeeze in a few yoga studios in there.