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  #3921  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2020, 9:23 PM
accord1999 accord1999 is offline
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Given how badly the Green Line has been bungled by the City, I won't shed a tear if Green Line (now at Version 3) gets canceled. Perhaps it's time the City learned to live within the $5B budget it does have, rather than still fixated at trying to build something that will cost $9B or more to meet the original purpose of the Green Line.

Seeing the financial difficulties facing Honolulu and Hawaii with the disastrous Honolulu Rail Transit, canceling the current Green Line will probably turn out to be a blessing in the long run.
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  #3922  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2020, 7:59 PM
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This song has been floating around my head as a kind of theme for the Green Line and my hope that they “don’t cross the river” until they can do the north segment properly (i.e. NOT as a surface running streetcar on Center St.).

https://youtu.be/79V-hj6rIFA
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  #3923  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2020, 9:20 PM
Corndogger Corndogger is offline
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Originally Posted by craner View Post
This song has been floating around my head as a kind of theme for the Green Line and my hope that they “don’t cross the river” until they can do the north segment properly (i.e. NOT as a surface running streetcar on Center St.).

https://youtu.be/79V-hj6rIFA
I think the north segment is a large part of the reason why the province wants to hold off on things until after the municipal election next October. The Green Line was initially sold to them as a major transportation project and now it seems the north segment is anything but. They also factor in the new realities. Apparently Toronto is doing some big rethinks of transit projects and I think NYC is as well. I'd rather see the money go to fixing and expanding Deerfoot and other major roads. There's no sign people are going to stop driving and plenty of indications that vehicle use will increase.
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  #3924  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2020, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Corndogger View Post
plenty of indications that vehicle use will increase.
Citation needed.
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  #3925  
Old Posted Dec 10, 2020, 11:18 PM
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I cannot help but wonder if a bruised ego, going back to city council days, has been a factor in this decision made seemingly only by Ric MacIvor
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  #3926  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2020, 12:27 AM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Citation needed.
You shall receive none.
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  #3927  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2020, 7:06 AM
Corndogger Corndogger is offline
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Citation needed.
I suppose you'll come back and claim that I need to provide a Calgary-specific citation. My response will be prove Calgary is different than anywhere else and while you're at it, explain why you think decreased transit usage won't lead to more vehicle usage? It's not like people are never going to leave home.

Post-pandemic gridlock? Public transport users expected to shift to driving cars

25 August 2020

Fewer people will use public transport and instead use cars in post-pandemic Melbourne, a new report by Monash University shows.
  • Public transport usage will return in Melbourne but to only 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels, a new report by the Monash Public Transport Research Group shows.
  • Car driving and congestion will increase as a result.
  • Safety on public transport still presents a concern for commuters. However, fears of contracting the virus and a lack of social distancing on board buses, trains and trams, will lead to a rise in car use.
  • One in five commuters are less likely to travel into the Melbourne CBD once restrictions ease.

Fewer people will use public transport and instead use cars, causing more congestion, once COVID-19 restrictions ease in Melbourne, preliminary findings of a new report by the Monash Public Transport Research Group show.

Source: https://www.monash.edu/news/articles/pos...tion%20will%20increase%20as%20a%20result.

Driving, flying expected to spike after COVID-19 pandemic

Written by Teresa Bergen on November 12, 2020

Researchers were most alarmed by the fact that respondents in all 25 countries plan to drive more post-pandemic. Brazilians showed the most marked planned increase, with 62% saying yes to more driving and only 12% planning to drive less. South Africa was right behind, with 60% yay and 12% nay. More than 40% of Australians and Americans planned to spend more time behind the wheel, with only 10% anticipating leaving their cars in park more often.

Source: https://inhabitat.com/driving-flying-expected-to-spike-after-covid-19-pandemic/

Car sales rise and car-share companies boom as pandemic upends transportation

About 44% of consumers under 35 surveyed by the consultant firm Capgeminiare are planning to stop using ride-hailing services for health reasons and 13% plan to permanently shift to a personal car as a primary means of transportation, even after the pandemic ends.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2...19-coronavirus-uber-zipcar?ref=hvper.com

How consumers’ behavior in car buying and mobility is changing amid COVID-19

September 22, 2020 | Survey

Mobility
  • 52% (vs. 58% in July) of respondents travel less than before COVID-19
  • Post-COVID-19, consumers are likely to return to pre-COVID-19 habits; walking, biking, and micro-mobility might potentially become more popular
  • Shift from airplane and train to private vehicle for intercity travelling clearly visible across all regions
  • A third of consumers value constant access to a private vehicle more than before COVID-19, esp. amongst younger consumers

Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functi...ying-and-mobility-changes-amid-covid-19#

Pandemic Forcing Changes Across Transportation Industry
Not only is change coming, no one's certain what it'll cost.

by Joseph Szczesny | Dec 9, 2020

...

A new group of younger buyers are entering the market, he added. Many of them used public transit but are now searching out used cars or even new forms of ownership, he said. But the survey by his firm also found they are more likely to be interested in an electric vehicle, a trend mirrored by the rising sales of EVs in Europe, Simlett said.

...

But Ford’s surveys also found, even though people are working from home, 17% indicated they use their vehicles for work and 26% said it is a place to relax during the pandemic. Many respondents noted that some of their best conversations take place in a car, according to Ford’s Futures study, which is now in its ninth year, Connelly said.

Simlett noted that despite commuter traffic being down, sales of commercial vehicles are on the rise.

“We are going to still be talking about how we really using our automobile a lot more,” she predicted. “A year from now, we’re going to still be talking about how we are really using our automobiles a lot more.”

Source: https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/12/pandemic-forcing-changes-across-transportation-industry/

A lot of Boston commuters expect to start driving after the pandemic, survey says

A return to normal could also mean the return of Boston’s grueling traffic congestion.

By Adam Vaccaro Globe Staff,Updated November 26, 2020, 6:55 p.m.

Coronavirus vaccines may be on the horizon, bolstering prospects that daily life will return to normal sometime in 2021 — and with it, the region’s grueling pre-pandemic traffic congestion.

A new survey conducted by the city of Boston and the business group A Better City suggests that many commuters are planning to take to the roads when they eventually return to Boston’s busiest commercial centers. About 38 percent said they plan to drive alone to work once the crisis is over, compared to about 23 percent who drove before the pandemic.

Meanwhile, just over half of regular subway riders plan to return to public transit, from 29.2 percent of overall commuters to 16.4 percent. Buses and commuter trains would see declines in returning riders, too, according to the survey.


Source: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/26/m...tart-driving-after-pandemic-survey-says/
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  #3928  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2020, 2:48 PM
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I expected as much, but that doesn't mean we should give up on transit and embrace car-culture 2.0. We're still facing a climate emergency. Before you point to electric cars, we're not there yet. The majority are still gasoline and it will continue to be that way for at least another decade. And congestion will only get worse even with electric or automated cars. Roads remain less economical as they require more maintenance, take up more space and provide far less capacity.
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  #3929  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2020, 6:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Corndogger View Post
I suppose you'll come back and claim that I need to provide a Calgary-specific citation. My response will be prove Calgary is different than anywhere else and while you're at it, explain why you think decreased transit usage won't lead to more vehicle usage? It's not like people are never going to leave home.
It's not a gotcha comment I made. I'm not trying to trap you into anything. I've seen the polls. I've been to webinars on the subject. The simple and obvious answer is that in the near future (1-5 years) there will be a significant shift in modal use in Transportation. The estimates range from a 10-40% shift away from all communal forms of transportation to SOV (single occupant vehicles) modes. Whether that is car sharing or buying personal vehicles, expect that to happen for sure.

The other obvious answer is that no one can predict that this is a permanent change or not. Looking back at other travel changing events in the past, the likely result is a short term change but a long term return to the same trajectory transportation was seeing before the pandemic. To pretend that what we've seen in the last 10 months is a blueprint for the next 20 years is short-sighted.
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  #3930  
Old Posted Dec 11, 2020, 9:51 PM
Corndogger Corndogger is offline
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Originally Posted by Mazrim View Post
It's not a gotcha comment I made. I'm not trying to trap you into anything. I've seen the polls. I've been to webinars on the subject. The simple and obvious answer is that in the near future (1-5 years) there will be a significant shift in modal use in Transportation. The estimates range from a 10-40% shift away from all communal forms of transportation to SOV (single occupant vehicles) modes. Whether that is car sharing or buying personal vehicles, expect that to happen for sure.

The other obvious answer is that no one can predict that this is a permanent change or not. Looking back at other travel changing events in the past, the likely result is a short term change but a long term return to the same trajectory transportation was seeing before the pandemic. To pretend that what we've seen in the last 10 months is a blueprint for the next 20 years is short-sighted.
Yes, no one knows for sure what will happen but major events often lead to permanent change. There are plenty of studies showing that demand for office space will drop significantly, people will work more from home, people are moving to larger homes in the suburbs, etc. This is a societal-changing pandemic whose impacts will felt for decades. People are not going to forget about this and go back to their old ways. It will be like the depression where people who lived through that time tended to be very conservative with their money for the rest of their lives even if they became quite rich after the depression had ended. I also think people are going to value their freedoms a lot more than they did before the pandemic. Owning a car will become more important to a lot more people.

Going back to the Green Line, pandemic or not this project still has serious issues that need to be addressed. The current "plan" is a disaster and not worth investing $5.5+ billion in. If they're going to build something they should build the S.E. leg all the way to Seton or even further south. Hold off on the north segment until a plan to put it underground until at least McKnight can be implemented.
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  #3931  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2020, 5:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Corndogger View Post
I think the north segment is a large part of the reason why the province wants to hold off on things until after the municipal election next October. The Green Line was initially sold to them as a major transportation project and now it seems the north segment is anything but. They also factor in the new realities. Apparently Toronto is doing some big rethinks Tof transit projects and I think NYC is as well. I'd rather see the money go to fixing and expanding Deerfoot and other major roads. There's no sign people are going to stop driving and plenty of indications that vehicle use will increase.
$5B would indeed go a long way to upgrade the city’s road network and would get my vote (if we had a vote on such things).
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  #3932  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2020, 8:27 PM
YYCguys YYCguys is offline
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$5B would indeed go a long way to upgrade the city’s road network and would get my vote (if we had a vote on such things).
The provincial and federal portions of the funding would likely get yanked if the project doesn’t proceed (or is substantially changed), so it wouldn’t really be $5B. The city’s portion is $1.5B so what road projects would fit within that funding and would be best value for money?
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  #3933  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2020, 9:24 PM
Corndogger Corndogger is offline
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The provincial and federal portions of the funding would likely get yanked if the project doesn’t proceed (or is substantially changed), so it wouldn’t really be $5B. The city’s portion is $1.5B so what road projects would fit within that funding and would be best value for money?
I think the province would have no problem switching their share of the funding over to road projects. I wouldn't be surprised if the feds did the same. They've done it before and are doing it now in other locations.
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  #3934  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 4:02 AM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by Corndogger View Post
Yes, no one knows for sure what will happen but major events often lead to permanent change. There are plenty of studies showing that demand for office space will drop significantly, people will work more from home, people are moving to larger homes in the suburbs, etc. This is a societal-changing pandemic whose impacts will felt for decades. People are not going to forget about this and go back to their old ways. It will be like the depression where people who lived through that time tended to be very conservative with their money for the rest of their lives even if they became quite rich after the depression had ended. I also think people are going to value their freedoms a lot more than they did before the pandemic. Owning a car will become more important to a lot more people.

Going back to the Green Line, pandemic or not this project still has serious issues that need to be addressed. The current "plan" is a disaster and not worth investing $5.5+ billion in. If they're going to build something they should build the S.E. leg all the way to Seton or even further south. Hold off on the north segment until a plan to put it underground until at least McKnight can be implemented.
As always, this immediately falls down due to a faulty premise. If the Green Line isn't necessary because of claimed permanent changes to the city due to the pandemic (already based on poor reasoning and kneejerk assessment, but let's keep it going), then it does not follow that we need increased road infrastructure, to do what? Handle all the increased driving because people are working from home, apparently?

I agree with you though about building all the way to the SE.
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  #3935  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 5:44 AM
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Originally Posted by YYCguys View Post
The provincial and federal portions of the funding would likely get yanked if the project doesn’t proceed (or is substantially changed), so it wouldn’t really be $5B. The city’s portion is $1.5B so what road projects would fit within that funding and would be best value for money?
I agree we would never get $3.5B from the Province & Feds for roads - I was just pie-in-the-sky dreaming if we did.
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  #3936  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 3:34 PM
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I agree with you though about building all the way to the SE.
Same here. Build the SE portion until you have enough money to underground the NC portion of the line.

The sad thing is that this probably delays the LRT connection to the airport indefinitely (or more indefinitely?). I can't see the city building a spur from downtown to the airport.
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  #3937  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 3:54 PM
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Same here. Build the SE portion until you have enough money to underground the NC portion of the line.
The question is whether there will ever be enough money in one pot ever again to do that in one stage. There are many transit projects with capital costs in the hundred+ million dollar range that will be clamoring for money,

Quote:
The sad thing is that this probably delays the LRT connection to the airport indefinitely (or more indefinitely?). I can't see the city building a spur from downtown to the airport.
I would assume that it will almost certainly come from the NE line first, regardless of where the Green Line goes. The RouteAhead project prioritization rated that higher than the segment coming from the west. It's also a $750M competitor for future funding.

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=147365

And I find it laughable that the RouteAhead will consider the merits of the Airport connector coming from a hypothetical Green Line North but refuse to discuss possible Green Line North segments or their priority even though they were supposed to have done it years ago.
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  #3938  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 4:30 PM
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The sad thing is that this probably delays the LRT connection to the airport indefinitely (or more indefinitely?). I can't see the city building a spur from downtown to the airport.
The idea the CIB has (Airport-Banff heavy rail) is a billion times better than the city's plan, so I see anything that impedes the city developing their option as a good thing.
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  #3939  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 4:37 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is online now
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The idea the CIB has (Airport-Banff heavy rail) is a billion times better than the city's plan, so I see anything that impedes the city developing their option as a good thing.
I think both are good in their own way.
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  #3940  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2020, 6:08 PM
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I think both are good in their own way.
There's room for both, serving different purposes. But if I had to pick one it would be the heavy rail link.

I know airport rail links are a "nice to have" and their value overstated but the city's plan of a people mover where you then have to transfer to our bargain basement LRTs? That's trash, no one arriving in Calgary wants that, they'll just take a cab. But a proper train to downtown (and Banff) actually would be an attractive proposition to a visitor.

The city plan would be good for workers and as a cross city link. But seeing as we'll not be getting the Green Line north for decades, if ever, the whole idea kinda falls apart.
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