Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive
Question: Is rail transit a financial train wreck?
Answer: In many cities and urban areas it sure has been this year (and next year).
ICYMI, Laura Bliss, my favorite writer at CityLab has a recent update of the carnage in many cities (and props to Bloomberg for rescuing CityLab by bringing it into the Bloomberg family).
Sounds like this is mostly a NE urban story - or not?
Question: Is Phoenix living a charmed life?
Answer: Sort of...
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It's a good article, like most of what Laura Bliss writes. Nevertheless, I don't see the emphasis on rail transit suggested in your first sentence. It seems to suggest that transit of all modes is hurting.
To answer some of your questions, the problem seems to be especially bad in the Northeast and the Bay Area. If I were to speculate as to why, I'd suggest a few reasons:
1) Those regions locked down harder and longer than much of the nation's interior, resulting in much greater erosion of ridership in those coastal cities.
2) In those cities, there is more discretionary transit use by white collar workers who were able to shift to driving or working from home. In places like Phoenix, a larger fraction of riders are either so-called "essential workers" who have to be on site or transit-dependent passengers who can't shift to driving.
3) Back in the spring, when NYC was the place experiencing the worse of the pandemic, there was a lot of misguided blaming of the city's density and public transit. Now that the virus is spreading rapidly in places like the Dakotas, that seems pretty well disproved. Nevertheless, the perception of the subway as an unsafe space persists to this day.
Although I wouldn't go so far as to say Phoenix is charmed, it has fared much better than many other cities. Ridership fell about 50% at the height of the stay-at-home order. That's certainly not good, but it's nowhere near as bad as the numbers given for other cities in Bliss' piece. Thankfully, construction has continued on the South Central and Northwest Phase II extensions and has probably been less disruptive than it could have been due to less traffic on the streets.