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  #2141  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 10:23 PM
Flaneur89 Flaneur89 is offline
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Originally Posted by allovertown View Post
Actually, dining in restaurants has an very significant correlation with covid spread.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/health/restaurant-dining-covid-19-cdc-study-wellness/index.html

If you're eating, you can't wear a mask. And eating and talking without a mask, indoors, amongst strangers is exactly what should not be happening right now

This a terrible situation for those in the restaurant industry, but our city has an obligation to keep its citizens safe. Unfortunately, because the city can't borrow money to provide relief to the businesses and workers that will be harmed economically by these orders this becomes an even worse situation.

Federal government really needs to step up and provide some relief but unfortunately they've been MIA for the past half a year or so.
The draconian measures of the lockdown seem unusual and unwarranted. It seems similar to what was done earlier this year when we were without wide scale testing, therapeutics and a potential vaccine. According to the Wall St Journal, “Vaccinations could start in December, if the shot is authorized. Yet initial supplies will be very limited. Moderna says it expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship by the end of the year, enough supply of the two-dose shot for 10 million people.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com...ything-else-you-need-to-know-11605548631

The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
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  #2142  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 10:43 PM
el don el don is offline
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Originally Posted by Flaneur89 View Post
The draconian measures of the lockdown seem unusual and unwarranted. It seems similar to what was done earlier this year when we were without wide scale testing, therapeutics and a potential vaccine. According to the Wall St Journal, “Vaccinations could start in December, if the shot is authorized. Yet initial supplies will be very limited. Moderna says it expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship by the end of the year, enough supply of the two-dose shot for 10 million people.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com...ything-else-you-need-to-know-11605548631

The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
Ha good luck getting people to understand this. The second order effects of these lockdowns will be felt for decades throughout all parts of society. Don't you dare bring up an actuarial life table and compare it to the IFR of the same age groups...
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  #2143  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 12:19 AM
Ritz48 Ritz48 is offline
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Originally Posted by Flaneur89 View Post
The draconian measures of the lockdown seem unusual and unwarranted. It seems similar to what was done earlier this year when we were without wide scale testing, therapeutics and a potential vaccine. According to the Wall St Journal, “Vaccinations could start in December, if the shot is authorized. Yet initial supplies will be very limited. Moderna says it expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship by the end of the year, enough supply of the two-dose shot for 10 million people.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com...ything-else-you-need-to-know-11605548631

The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
Sadly, half our community refuses to do the most basic things. Wear masks in public and do not congregate indoors. When you invite people over to watch the Eagles or have a big Thanksgiving with people you don't know there is likely spread. Statistically, if you invite 10 people to your home for Thanksgiving given the amount of spread there is a 50% chance 1 person will be infected. The closing of restaurants is in part theatre. I own a Children's Dance Studio and we have been forced to close 8 months now.
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  #2144  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 12:20 AM
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EastSideHBG EastSideHBG is offline
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There would be so much more buy in with these lockdowns if the government actually helped people with OUR money. Some of the outrage and resistance we are seeing is because only certain industries are being targeted, mostly small businesses, and it's, "Sorry, you are on your own here, hopefully you were prepared." It's extremely unfair and people won't forget this. Which leads me to:

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Originally Posted by Flaneur89 View Post
The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
My feelings also. Cities can be a tough sell (especially Philly, particularly because of the taxes) and when goofy stuff like this happens it makes it even tougher for the long-term.
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  #2145  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 1:27 AM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by Flaneur89 View Post
The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
Even if 2 million doses were ready in December, which they won't be, do you think those 2 million doses just magically get injected into people's arms?

It will take 6 months to get a meaningful number of people vaccinated. And it would require government coordination, which we've seen none of from this administration.

Not to mention 2 million doses is not even 1/150th of the population of this country.
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  #2146  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 6:03 AM
allovertown allovertown is offline
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Originally Posted by Flaneur89 View Post
The draconian measures of the lockdown seem unusual and unwarranted. It seems similar to what was done earlier this year when we were without wide scale testing, therapeutics and a potential vaccine. According to the Wall St Journal, “Vaccinations could start in December, if the shot is authorized. Yet initial supplies will be very limited. Moderna says it expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship by the end of the year, enough supply of the two-dose shot for 10 million people.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com...ything-else-you-need-to-know-11605548631

The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
You can see how useful widescale testing and therapeutics are as the Covid cases skyrocket right off the map and area hospitals once again approach capacity. These things are only helpful to an extent and only when used when in conjunction with responsible behavior like wearing a mask, an incredibly simple thing to do that people all over the world are doing, but too many here can't be bothered to do.

The vaccines are very promising and despite a lot of fears to the contrary, seem likely to provide significant protection for years to come, meaning people who stay up to date on their covid vaccines should have little to fear in short order and things should start to get back to (mostly) normal. But this is all the more reason to get things under control right now. To spiral out of control and needlessly harm millions when the end is finally in sight is beyond senseless.

All people like you want to look at are the deaths, but the long term health problems that are plaguing covid survivors, even young previously healthy people is extremely troubling. The idea that the worst economic impact to come out of this pandemic is going to be due to forced closures of restaurants for a few months is honestly absurd when you measure it against the economic impact of millions of people with lifelong health problems.

It's an airborne respiratory pandemic that is currently spiraling out of control in our region. It's not the time for indoor dining. If you don't understand that, I don't know what to tell you.
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  #2147  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 6:13 AM
City Wide City Wide is offline
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Ha good luck getting people to understand this. The second order effects of these lockdowns will be felt for decades throughout all parts of society. Don't you dare bring up an actuarial life table and compare it to the IFR of the same age groups...
Care to explain? I might be missing something here, but the big change in these new regs seem to be the complete shut down of restaurants. The 5 people per 1K sq.ft. in retail would be hard to enforce. I don't want to down play the very real effect that this closing is going to have on the restaurant and the hotel/travel industry, but I don't see that being something felt for decades. On the other side of the Covid coin is 250K dead and many millions rendered seriously ill, many with long lasting effects. I think sticking our collective head in the sand has been proved to be ineffective.

BTW, we seem to be in the middle of a building boom, which speaks well for the Cities future.
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  #2148  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 2:41 PM
iamrobk iamrobk is offline
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All I have to say about the new restrictions is that the consensus among my friends is that they aren't changing anything that we were planning to do... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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  #2149  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 3:13 PM
Skintreesnail Skintreesnail is offline
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I get people's frustration with all of this and it makes me sad to see businesses close, especially small business which is responsible for a lot of the vitality in this city, and cities in general, but I don't know what the answer is outside of these restrictions. The virus is deadly and life-altering, and we've already seen that if you give people an inch they'll take a mile. I'd like to just leave everything up to the individual to do the right thing, but I don't see it as realistic. This as been made so political that we need the guidance and objectivity that science brings. I mean we need that in a non-political scenario, but in spades now. It's gotten to the point where my own parents, who have plenty of health problems, don't wear masks or socially distance themselves out of spite and the miss-guided notion that "herd immunity" is the solution to everything. It makes me so frustrated, not only with them, but with the politicians that turned this into the clusterf!ck that it is. I mean, they might die simply over politics. To me, that's insane. Maybe if we had a more timely reaction at the start, that everyone got on board with following the guidelines from our health officials, then maybe we wouldn't need to have the lockdowns, or at least as severe as they are. But there's no use in musing over might-have-beens when we're here in the present. We need to deal with it somehow and to me the loss of business, while painful, is preferable to the loss of life.
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  #2150  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 3:30 PM
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PhilliesPhan PhilliesPhan is offline
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Originally Posted by Flaneur89 View Post
The draconian measures of the lockdown seem unusual and unwarranted. It seems similar to what was done earlier this year when we were without wide scale testing, therapeutics and a potential vaccine. According to the Wall St Journal, “Vaccinations could start in December, if the shot is authorized. Yet initial supplies will be very limited. Moderna says it expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship by the end of the year, enough supply of the two-dose shot for 10 million people.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com...ything-else-you-need-to-know-11605548631

The present lockdown in Philly was an unnecessarily extreme reaction and will have a potentially long term impact given the already fragile state of the city. One could be a pollyanna and say everything will turn out fine but history shows economics and the vitality of cities are much more delicate than we’d like to think. I find it troubling that some condone the lockdowns while at the same time are so confident that societies will quickly rebound without long term profound consequences - Or not to at least consider this forum may be crickets in a few years time.
I don't understand the point of blaming the city when this is a federal issue. COVID has been, and continues to be, a nationwide issue propagated by a lack of leadership coming out of Washington, D.C. Instead of trying to play off the significance of the virus, our elected "leaders" could have been busy working towards ensuring that those affected (individuals and small, locally-owned businesses) by shutdowns would be properly taken care of. If other first-world nations can get this done, why can't we? Instead, someone who I won't mention by name would rather let bills sit on his desk while continuously attempting to lowball the American people.

The city is simply being more proactive than the country as a whole, when, in reality, the country should be implementing similar measures. Our federal government--one that we pay a lot of taxes towards--has failed us more than too many people realize.
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  #2151  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 3:54 PM
thoughtcriminal thoughtcriminal is offline
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A meme I saw on social media earlier:
If the first lockdowns worked, why are we doing them again?
If the first lockdowns didn't work, why are we doing them again?
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  #2152  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 4:19 PM
Skintreesnail Skintreesnail is offline
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A meme I saw on social media earlier:
If the first lockdowns worked, why are we doing them again?
If the first lockdowns didn't work, why are we doing them again?
to me, this shows that they did work:
https://public.tableau.com/views/Covid-19-SiteStory/WebFinal?:embed=y&:embed_code_version=3&:loadOrderID=0&isplay_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link

and we always knew there would be another wave in the fall and lockdown coming. There probably will be several more until the vaccine usage is wide spread.
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  #2153  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 4:21 PM
Boku Boku is online now
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Originally Posted by thoughtcriminal View Post
A meme I saw on social media earlier:
If the first lockdowns worked, why are we doing them again?
If the first lockdowns didn't work, why are we doing them again?
They did work, to some extent. Don't you remember "flattening the curve"? The curve flattened, and it bought some time. The problem is we just used that time to do...what?
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  #2154  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 4:31 PM
el don el don is offline
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Originally Posted by City Wide View Post
Care to explain? I might be missing something here, but the big change in these new regs seem to be the complete shut down of restaurants. The 5 people per 1K sq.ft. in retail would be hard to enforce. I don't want to down play the very real effect that this closing is going to have on the restaurant and the hotel/travel industry, but I don't see that being something felt for decades. On the other side of the Covid coin is 250K dead and many millions rendered seriously ill, many with long lasting effects. I think sticking our collective head in the sand has been proved to be ineffective.

BTW, we seem to be in the middle of a building boom, which speaks well for the Cities future.
Gladly

Locally summers already covered Septa. We all know once they start cutting service it takes decades to bring it back, if ever. Anybody want to talk about the increased violent crime in pretty much every major city?

Poverty/Starvation
https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/n...nable-development-goals-report-2020.html

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-ap-...al-news-5cbee9693c52728a3808f4e7b4965cbd

Tuberculosis

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguar...00-surge-in-tb-deaths-as-medics-diverted

Increased Child Labor

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes...children-school-education-labor.amp.html

Increased Suicides, Overdoses, and Domestic Abuse

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go....se-covid-coming-true/story%3fid=73836752

School Closures

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2772834

Excerpt from this one, "These findings suggest that the decision to close US public primary schools in the early months of 2020 may be associated with a decrease in life expectancy for US children."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yah...penn-wharton-budget-model-125743955.html
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  #2155  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 5:47 PM
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summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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As demand for lab space rises, Philadelphia-area developers step up to meet the growth

Quote:
The growth in Philadelphia's life sciences industry is driving the need for more lab space, and developers are shifting their focus to meet the demand.
Full article behind paywall below. Who can read it? Anything new?
https://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia...space-on-the-rise-throughout-region.html

Last edited by summersm343; Nov 19, 2020 at 3:32 PM.
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  #2156  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 6:11 PM
allovertown allovertown is offline
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Originally Posted by Skintreesnail View Post
I get people's frustration with all of this and it makes me sad to see businesses close, especially small business which is responsible for a lot of the vitality in this city, and cities in general, but I don't know what the answer is outside of these restrictions. The virus is deadly and life-altering, and we've already seen that if you give people an inch they'll take a mile. I'd like to just leave everything up to the individual to do the right thing, but I don't see it as realistic. This as been made so political that we need the guidance and objectivity that science brings. I mean we need that in a non-political scenario, but in spades now. It's gotten to the point where my own parents, who have plenty of health problems, don't wear masks or socially distance themselves out of spite and the miss-guided notion that "herd immunity" is the solution to everything. It makes me so frustrated, not only with them, but with the politicians that turned this into the clusterf!ck that it is. I mean, they might die simply over politics. To me, that's insane. Maybe if we had a more timely reaction at the start, that everyone got on board with following the guidelines from our health officials, then maybe we wouldn't need to have the lockdowns, or at least as severe as they are. But there's no use in musing over might-have-beens when we're here in the present. We need to deal with it somehow and to me the loss of business, while painful, is preferable to the loss of life.
I'm really sorry about your parents. That's a really difficult situation. I hope they get through this ok.

Fortunately no one especially close to me is like that but that type of thinking runs rampant in my wife's extended family. And unfortunately this does not seem to be a disease with karma in mind. My wife's great aunt and uncle both died from covid. Despite the fact that as far as we know, they were largely following best practices for dealing with covid. But they did allow their children and grandchildren to visit them, one of whom gave them covid. The craziest part is even after the deaths of their parents, none of them seem to have changed their behavior. This pandemic has really exposed what has clearly become a pandemic of stupidity in this country.


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Originally Posted by Boku View Post
They did work, to some extent. Don't you remember "flattening the curve"? The curve flattened, and it bought some time. The problem is we just used that time to do...what?
Exactly. If not for the earlier lockdown we'd be in much worse place today. And the earlier lockdown was effective even with plenty of people disregarding it and acting like —. If people took it seriously the first time and didn't act like selfish — in the interim we might not need another lockdown now.

Though as easy as it is to get annoyed with the selfish behavior of individuals, i reserve most of my anger for our failed government that knee capped these lockdown measures by not providing the necessary support to allow most people to actually follow the health guidelines. Their failure is truly incredible when you compare it to how other wealthy nations around the world responded.

Some here are listing negative outcomes from the lockdown as though the way to respond to these negative outcomes is to not lockdown and needlessly kill people. The answer to dealing with the issues that lockdowns cause is to provide people with the support they need to get through the lockdowns... Not just give up and let covid kill millions.
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  #2157  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 7:19 PM
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Knight Hospitaller Knight Hospitaller is offline
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They did work, to some extent. Don't you remember "flattening the curve"? The curve flattened, and it bought some time. The problem is we just used that time to do...what?
I dunno, develop two 95% effective vaccines maybe?
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  #2158  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 7:26 PM
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Knight Hospitaller Knight Hospitaller is offline
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This is getting far afield, but I'll just observe that viruses spread. It's what they do. Anything that we do is messing around the edges at best. The necessary cost-benefit analysis is seriously skewed if we think otherwise. We live in the wrong universe if risk aversion is our primary motivation.
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  #2159  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 7:32 PM
Skintreesnail Skintreesnail is offline
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This is getting far afield, but I'll just observe that viruses spread. It's what they do. Anything that we do is messing around the edges at best. The necessary cost-benefit analysis is seriously skewed if we think otherwise. We live in the wrong universe if risk aversion is our primary motivation.
sure, we live in a pretty chaotic universe, but this is something that we can at least mitigate some of the risk. I mean if I live in a house in the woods and there's a wildfire is headed my way, do I shrug and say "life's risky"? No, I'm going to try and mitigate some of the risk by removing myself from the path of the fire.
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  #2160  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2020, 7:41 PM
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Knight Hospitaller Knight Hospitaller is offline
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Originally Posted by Skintreesnail View Post
sure, we live in a pretty chaotic universe, but this is something that we can at least mitigate some of the risk. I mean if I live in a house in the woods and there's a wildfire is headed my way, do I shrug and say "life's risky"? No, I'm going to try and mitigate some of the risk by removing myself from the path of the fire.
Probably more reasonable than shutting everything down, but ultimately unlikely to succeed. Assuming the usefulness of lockdowns as a delaying tactic, which is not clear, we now have more effective treatment protocols and therapeutics, such that the death rate (knock on wood) appears to be much lower as a percentage of cases. With an apparently successful vaccine program, we've definitely arrived at the point of diminishing returns for such draconian measures. For quite a stretch there have been fewer COVID deaths than traffic fatalities. Every life is irreplaceable and precious, but by the standard being employed by local authorities, we should shut down the highways.
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