Rapid Transit

[ZTrade]

Sounds like Local, Provincial and Private are all a go. All that's left is for Federal Gov to announce how much they're willing to put up.

If that amount is something low, Province might recommend BRT instead of LRT. Unless, Private offers to fork up more.

I don't know much about construction, but I would say earliest Fall 2021, most likely Spring 2022 start.

[davidcappi]

Even with an agreement in place tomorrow this thing won’t be rideable until at least 2027-8.

[ScreamingViking]

The original target was 2024, and the province pulled their funding almost a year ago (mid-December 2019)

If an agreement can be reached within the next few months, with a fast re-start of the project bid process with no substantial changes to the plan, we're looking at a year+ of delay, maybe two given that the bid period would be reset to start at the beginning. So perhaps 2025-26 is realistic?

Hopefully the companies that were planning to submit a proposal can just dust off their earlier work and update it for current unit costs... which will have probably gone up.

If there's opportunity to stage the opening we could see part of it operating sooner (e.g., what if Mac to downtown opens first; the yard next to the MIP would need to be in place as well).

[davidcappi]

Yeah I'm still going to bet on 27/28

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Originally Posted by davidcappi

Yeah I'm still going to bet on 27/28

I'll take that bet any day of the week. I was alive when Hamilton was in the running for a SkyTrain route. Forty years on and we're still waiting...

Apologies for being a jerk - can't help it.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by davidcappi

Yeah I'm still going to bet on 27/28

I'm still going to bet that no agreement happens, despite Uncle Dougie's sudden positivity and his friendliness with some of the fed ministers.

The earlier post was my rose-coloured glasses perspective.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

I'll take that bet any day of the week. I was alive when Hamilton was in the running for a SkyTrain route. Forty years on and we're still waiting...

Apologies for being a jerk - can't help it.

No apologies necessary. When it comes to big infrastructure projects in Hamilton, the sagas can be long and winding.

Take the RHVP for example. Nov 17 is the 13th anniversary of its opening. The Schpec-tater has a "flashback" about it.

The LRT plan, in its current form, is but an adolescent by comparison...

It’s the 13th anniversary of Hamilton’s highway of bad luck.

Although some might use harsher words to describe the Red Hill Valley Parkway, such as jinxed, cursed or botched.

But, call it what you want on this noteworthy birthday: The $245-million express route through east Hamilton — that officially opened on Nov. 17, 2007 — was one of the most contentious and exasperating public policy debates in local, living memory.

It took more than a half century of mind-numbing planning, polarizing debate and bend-over-backwards engineering to accommodate a slate of environmental, Indigenous, technical, economic and political considerations to finally build the north-south expressway.

Of course, when one considers other grand transit plans and visions, higher-order transit has been a loooooong wait... going back to the the fully-funded UTDC proposal of 1981, and I vaguely recall city planners floating with the idea of a subway through the city back in the 1960s when growth was still exploding.

[ZTrade]

If they decide to build the LRT in stages, where would phase 1 end? My guess would either be:

-Phase 1 ending at the round-a-bout (leaves 3 stops for phase 2) or
-Phase 1 ending at Gage Park (leaves 6 stops for phase 2). The bus coming from East Gate Square can continue as current Line 5 as alternative to LRT Route.

I predict the population growth around East Gate Square and planned urban expansion out to Winona will justify the extension of Phase 2 LRT. Question for the forum, why not extend the LRT to Confederation GO Station?

I think the best thing to do is build it all in one shot but I'm pro LRT for economic reasons. I believe building the LRT in phases will allow the early start of A Line. I think A Line BRT from the Waterfront to the Airport is more important than Gage Park/Round-a-bout to East Gate Square.

[LikeHamilton]

Originally Posted by ZTrade

If they decide to build the LRT in stages, where would phase 1 end? My guess would either be:

-Phase 1 ending at the round-a-bout (leaves 3 stops for phase 2) or
-Phase 1 ending at Gage Park (leaves 6 stops for phase 2). The bus coming from East Gate Square can continue as current Line 5 as alternative to LRT Route.

I predict the population growth around East Gate Square and planned urban expansion out to Winona will justify the extension of Phase 2 LRT. Question for the forum, why not extend the LRT to Confederation GO Station?

I think the best thing to do is build it all in one shot but I'm pro LRT for economic reasons. I believe building the LRT in phases will allow the early start of A Line. I think A Line BRT from the Waterfront to the Airport is more important than Gage Park/Round-a-bout to East Gate Square.

It will be built in parts not stages. This hole project is Stage 1. Stage 2 would be extending it eastward or westward or extending both ends. (We should be discussing that now and not discussing the first stage.) Stage 3 would be the A-line.

Stage one will be in parts. The new maintenance center, bridges and the track connection to the main line at MIP. That end of the main line so the cars can access the system. The section from Gage to the Delta because of the bridge going in for the CPR train line. Any sections that require extensive underground work would be a part. The last stage would be any parts that don't require a lot of underground work. I believe they should remove all roadways/right of ways immediately from the start so motorist can get used to the permanent removal of lanes.

In my opinion!

[ScreamingViking]

The comments of these stories are always entertaining...


Metrolinx will start demolishing Hamilton LRT properties on Thursday
The transit agency handed out the first 9 of 21 neighbourhood notices today

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/metrolinx-1.5824063

CBC News
Posted Dec 02, 2020

Metrolinx delivered notices to residents today about demolishing the first slate of 21 properties it's tearing down for Hamilton light-rail transit (LRT).

The transit agency informed neighbours of nine of the properties, the first of which will be demolished on Thursday.

Metrolinx purchased the properties for an LRT project that's been in the works since 2015. The project has been up in the air since last December, when the province cancelled it. Mayor Fred Eisenberger has said the provincial and federal governments are working with the city and the private sector now to revive the system, which would run alternately down King and Main streets from McMaster University to Eastgate Square.

But the project's fate is still unknown.

Spokesperson Matt Llewellyn says Metrolinx staff was hand delivering notices.

"We had promised the community we would keep them apprised, and that's what we're doing today," he said.

Here's a list of the planned demolitions:

Property: 1185, 1183, 1181, 1179, 1175, 1173 King St. E.
Start Date: Dec. 3, 2020.
Duration: Four weeks.

Property: 1207, 1205, 1201, 1199 King St. E.
Start Date: Dec. 17, 2020.
Duration: Five weeks.

Property: 1141, 1139, 1137 King St. E.
Start date: Jan. 5, 2021.
Duration: Three weeks.

Property: 1153 King Street E.
Start date: Jan. 5, 2021.
Duration: Two weeks.

Property: 1149 to 1151 Main St. E.
Start date: Jan. 11, 2021.
Duration: Three weeks.

Property: 951 to 953 King St. E.
Start date: Jan. 19, 2021.
Duration: Three weeks.

Property: 943, 935, 929 King St. E.
Start date: Feb. 4, 2021.
Duration: Five weeks.

Property: 658 to 660 King St. E.
Start date: Jan. 25, 2021.
Duration: Three weeks.

Property: 401 King St. E.
Start date: Jan. 25, 2021.
Duration: Two weeks.

[Innsertnamehere]

https://twitter.com/BenSpurr/status/1336022400639660041?s=20

At press conference moments ago, Premier Ford pledges "one way or the other we’re going to get the (Hamilton) LRT built." His government cancelled the project a year ago. Ford blames Liberal Leader and former transpo minister Steven Del Duca for being "dishonest" about costs.

[ChildishGavino]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

https://twitter.com/BenSpurr/status/1336022400639660041?s=20

"Dishonest about costs", eh? What about that 5,500,000,000$ price tag your government pulled out it's 🞵🞵🞵?

Ugh, It's nearly been a year, and it still gets me pissed. Build the 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 thing. I don't care how, we're already 2 years behind schedule & they haven't ripped up an inch of tarmac yet.

[ScreamingViking]

Cue another round of bickering amongst politicians...


Hamilton was misled on LRT costs, which have been steadily creeping upward: Lysyk
The PC government says Liberals weren't forthcoming, while Del Duca says Hamilton was singled out
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/hamilton-lrt-1.5831109

By Samantha Craggs
CBC News
Posted: Dec 07, 2020

A new auditor general report shows the cost of Hamilton light-trail transit (LRT) was creeping upward as far back as 2018, and that the provincial PC estimate of $5.5 billion when the project was cancelled in December actually wasn't far off.

Bonnie Lysyk said Monday that the then-Liberal Treasury Board approved $1.083 billion back in March 2018 to build the system, far more than the $823 million in construction costs it approved in 2016.

"The ministry was aware as early as 2016 that the total cost estimate for the Hamilton LRT would be higher than the $1 billion in capital costs that the province had publicly committed to funding in 2015, but it did not make this fact public," Lysyk said in her report.

The increased costs "were not public numbers," Lysyk told reporters at Queen's Park.

"When the government made the decision to cancel the Hamilton LRT, they had gotten new information based on what the costs were," she said.

"There was not a lot of understanding of the two prior estimates when that announcement was made."

The actual cost of Hamilton LRT — which may still happen — has been the source of confusion since last year.

Then-Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney announced the surprise cancellation a year ago, saying she'd told Mayor Fred Eisenberger a couple of months earlier that the costs had grown.

The $1 billion had only been to build the system. In her comments, Mulroney said the cost had ballooned to be five times as much, citing a $5.5 billion estimate she said came from a Turner and Townsend report. But that estimate also included 30 years of operations and maintenance costs.

The actual Turner and Townsend report, a copy of which CBC News obtained, showed the capital costs had increased to more like $2.32 billion, which includes escalation and contingency, and $818.8 million in operating, maintenance and life cycle costs — still short of $5.5 billion.

But Lysyk's report said the $5.5-billion estimate "was reasonable," and the city should already have been told about it.

"When these things happen, there needs to be clear and open discussions between levels of government so everyone knows who's going to pay for what and what it's going to cost," she said.

Mulroney told reporters that her government has been transparent about Hamilton LRT.

Under the Liberals, the increased cost "was never disclosed to other partners, nor was it disclosed to other partners involved in the operations and maintenance of Hamilton LRT," she said.

The report found the Treasury Board approved $3.659 billion for Hamilton LRT in 2018. The province is committed to spending $1 billion on Hamilton transit. So doesn't that mean Hamilton is losing out on $2.659 billion?

Mulroney said Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca should answer that question. "We have been true to our commitment of $1 billion."

Del Duca says the method for announcing Hamilton LRT was the same as for GO Regional Express Rail, Hurontario LRT and Finch LRT. But the province hasn't cancelled those.

"Doug Ford chose to proceed with those other projects, and chose to only single out the City of Hamilton and deliver a reckless and devastating cut to their transit needs," he said in an email.

Andrew Horwath, Ontario NDP leader and Hamilton Centre MPP, asked Lysyk earlier this year to investigate Hamilton LRT.

Del Duca, she said, "lives in a glass house, and has no room to be throwing stones."

The Liberals should have approved Hamilton LRT long before they did, she said. If that happened, she said, "then we wouldn't be in this pickle."

She sees the province's $1-billion offer as a downgrade from $3.659 billion now. She also wonders why other LRT projects with cost overruns weren't cancelled.

"It's pretty clear that governments have been playing games with Hamilton's LRT for a couple of years now."

The fate of Hamilton LRT should be clearer in the coming weeks.

After Mulroney cancelled it, she struck a task force to look at how $1 billion should be spent in Hamilton. That task force recommended rapid transit.

The provincial and federal governments are now in discussions with the private sector to try to make the project happen.

Metrolinx has already spent $162 million on the project.

[ChildishGavino]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

The fate of Hamilton LRT should be clearer in the coming weeks.

This is agony.

I do hope we have something substantial by the end of the year, am I crazy?

[Dr Awesomesauce]

I want LRT but not at any cost. If this is in fact a multi-billion dollar project, how could it possibly be worth the expense?

Hamilton's economy, such as it is, is not at risk of collapse due to unbearable traffic gridlock. We already have a functional, though imperfect, East-West express route. Its replacement with an LRT would likely result in an uptick in ridership along that corridor. But what's the significance of that? Is it really worth it?

$4,000,000,000 for a better version of the B Line - the argument for LRT has suddenly become a lot less compelling...

[ChildishGavino]

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

I want LRT but not at any cost. If this is in fact a multi-billion dollar project, how could it possibly be worth the expense?

Hamilton's economy, such as it is, is not at risk of collapse due to unbearable traffic gridlock. We already have a functional, though imperfect, East-West express route. Its replacement with an LRT would likely see an uptick in ridership along that corridor.

So, is it really worth it? $4B for a better version of the B Line? That's a lot of dough...

It's not meant to solve our traffic woes in the now, it's to prepare for when the HSR becomes even more unreliable than it already is. I can't tell you how many times I've internally cussed out a bus for mysteriously turning up 6 minutes late, or when a when some wheel chair'd group decides my commute to work's a lovely time for a group outing. That multi-minute delay for a single boarding passenger doesn't happen with a tram, because the platforms aren't just repurposed sidewalk, meaning they won't need the world's slowest ramp, and the smoother ride means the driver won't have to get out to strap in a single passenger so they can speed over shredded pavement. The LRT is much more of a complicated project than just an upgrade to the 10. It'll be responsible for investments into properties which have much more appealing & accessible with a stop nearby, and more.

It's not just an upgrade to 1 bus route, it's an investment in our entire lower city.

Don't forget, that money's going to ripping up the street, repairing whatever's underneath so they won't have to rip up the street again sometime soon to fix a burst pipe, and repave the entire surface with some tram tacks on top. Frankly, 4B$ for a cross-city, 14km line which will serve all (save 1) of the city's commercial destinations, we could be paying a lot more for a lot less. New York's 2nd Avenue Subway is costing them 2B$... per mile.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

I want LRT but not at any cost. If this is in fact a multi-billion dollar project, how could it possibly be worth the expense?

Hamilton's economy, such as it is, is not at risk of collapse due to unbearable traffic gridlock. We already have a functional, though imperfect, East-West express route. Its replacement with an LRT would likely result in an uptick in ridership along that corridor. But what's the significance of that? Is it really worth it?

$4,000,000,000 for a better version of the B Line - the argument for LRT has suddenly become a lot less compelling...

To add. This $5.5b price tag is actually closer to $1.3b capital cost then operating cost over 30 years added on, without any math into fares or increase in economic value.

Think how much potential Ottawa or Kenilworth have that is being squandered by idiot councillors, that would naturally expand and grow with multi level developments and new people with comfortable transit right on the door step of these streets. Think about the bustling vintage streets of Toronto, and imagine that here rather than run down vacant storefronts, and the LRT sounds a lot more compelling.

Anyone who questions the power of building good transit infrastructure, look at Waterloo.

I also have no idea where these costs are coming from. Both Ottawa and Waterloos LRT are cheaper per km, and Ottawas includes underground sections. How is Hamilton the most expensive LRT project per km in the country?

[ChildishGavino]

Originally Posted by TheRitsman

I also have no idea where these costs are coming from. Both Ottawa and Waterloos LRT are cheaper per km, and Ottawas includes underground sections. How is Hamilton the most expensive LRT project per km in the country?

Im still very sceptical of the government’s assessments as to what will cost how much, but I suspect the bridges could be responsible. Earlier today I was looking through plans for the LRT, and for certain spots on the route they posed a choice as to what would go where. One of the solutions to where the tracks would go on the Queenston road bridge over the Redhill, is to just build the tracks onto an additional part of the bridge, rather than disturb the precious traffic. Granted I don’t know how old these documents are, or if that anecdote matters at all. But what I do know is there will be an underpass at the TH&B spur where King meets Dunsmure, and the bridge over Cathedral Park, and the new maintenance facility, could be the culprits. Though, that doesn’t explain Waterloo’s much snakier and split-up route being cheaper...

[atnor]

When I worked at the city my coworker with intimate knowledge of underground infrastructure said the cost to relocate and upgrade everything would be $1billion+ alone. He and his group doubted LRT would ever be built.

LRT won’t happen without federal funding. I’m with Dr. Awesomesauce on this.

[ScreamingViking]

This is, to my knowledge, the only transit project in Canada that has ever been publicly described in terms of its full life-cycle cost. The capital cost to build a project has always been the one quoted in the news, mentioned at media events, at ribbon-cuttings, etc.

Same goes for any other government expenditure -- the initial cost is the key figure noted, not the full costs over the life of the project or program. Highways. Pipelines. Naval vessels. Social housing. Health care programs. On and on...

That is what people do not understand. And for this particular proposed expenditure it has not been explained that way on purpose, by politicians of all party stripes playing games.

Looking at the costs this way is no different than considering ALL of the costs people incur when buying a house. That $500,000 home in a great up-and-coming neighbourhood? Which may be considered a steal at its market price? Well it costs much more when you consider all the other expenses it entails after you move in... the financing, utilities, regular maintenance, periodic replacements and renos, etc. Same with an automobile, which ends up being a money sink because the resale value diminishes.

Doesn't mean these are not worth buying though.

There are benefits to that spending, over the life of the project or item purchased. The benefits rarely get mentioned. When economists examine expenditures, they are compared to the benefits across the life cycle of the project. And I'm not talking about the development impacts -- those tend to be noted in the transit sales pitch to the public, but they're actually not part of the conventional cost-benefit analysis that is supposed to factor into the decision making (Metrolinx and others have begun studying the "wider economic benefits" and impacts but they're not easy to estimate, and the approaches to measuring them remain largely academic to date). In this case it's about the benefits to the transportation network: efficiencies because travel across the network is now faster on average, capacity has improved, connectivity is better, there's a savings because some users switch from more expensive forms of transportation, network safety is enhanced, etc.

In the end this will be a political decision, whether it goes forward or gets put in a coffin and buried. But the playing with numbers is infuriating.