Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas
So with all of this housing demand and construction, what are we anticipating for SLC's population in the 2020 census? 205k? 210k? 215k?
For context, the 2010 census has it at 186,440 and the 2019 estimate was 200,567 (from Wikipedia). It seems like the housing boom has been a relatively recent phenomenon in SLC proper, so I'm curious what the official numbers in 2020 will be.
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I think that the estimates have been off for the last 10 years. I think it was 2016 or 2017 that had SLC losing population. It was only around 500 or so but I just don't think that was correct with the massive amount of apartments that have been added.
SLC has had a vacancy rate of less than 5% for apartments over most of the decade even after adding so many units.
I think that SLC will be around 210K. I could see it going higher but no higher than 220K. I don't see the number coming in less than 205K though.
This topic has had me doing some digging to try to figure out what the official number would be.
According to estimates, SLC gained
4,400 new residents between 2010 and 2014. It also estimated that SLC would be at roughly 220K by 2030.
Between 2014 and 2017 SLC had issued permits for
5,912 apartments
In 2018, it was estimated that Downtown would roughly double the number of number of housing units going from 5,200 to
around 10,000
For 2018 to 2019, SLC had
3,845 multifamily units permitted to be built in 2019 an increase of 476% over its previous 814 units in 2018.
All told, I think there has been roughly 10,000 units built since 2014. Using the estimate of 2.1 people per apartment, this would be 21,000 people added since 2014. With an estimate of 190K at 2014, adding 21,000 people would put SLC over 210K.
What is amazing though, in looking back, the last 4 years have seen dramatic increases in permits for housing in the City. The growth has increased every year and projects are coming faster than ever before.
The part that should stand out is that all this growth is due to increasing density rather than sprawl.
As the trend looks to continue, I think the 2030 population may exceed 235K. It is also possible that the downtown units could push closer to 20,000 by 2030. This would be roughly doubling again from the estimated 2020 number.