BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

They could yes, but we haven't seen any proof of that, secondly in 2017 turnout was up more so than anyone switched sides, theres little proof that the BC Liberal votes actually went down (they received more votes than 2013 actually). More evidence is a higher turnout of young people going green and NDP allowed for a once in a blue moon perfect storm.

Theres no evidence green voters this time are going Liberal, in fact theres more evidence they are going to the NDP as polling is showing a good 30% of greens pulling to the NDP. This should be unsurprising as Andrew Weaver gave Horgan his approval and endorsement.

I'm completely open to being wrong, but I think the Green Party was Andrew Weaver. He was a sensible, steady voice. I'm not sure how well they do under new leadership. I'm inclined to think most who voted Green would now turn to NDP over Liberals.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I have a sinking gut feeling the ndp will lose this election.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I have a sinking gut feeling the ndp will lose this election.

Why is that? What’s the plot twist?

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Why is that? What’s the plot twist?

The lead really is that large to begin with, the nDP has reached a polling ceiling of around 49%. The only direction the ndp can go from here is down and the libs can only go up. The result is that the BC Libs could lose the popular vote by as much as 4 percent and still win more seats.

I remember the disaster that was 2013's election, I guess i'm still scarred from that.

[Metro-One]

I love people here acting as if BC politics = American politics.

The BC Libs are centre right and the NDP are centre left. So essentially both are centre governments. Given the platforms of both I’m actually okay with either winning a majority. Both have aspects I prefer and don’t prefer.

The only thing I don’t want is another coalition with the Greens. They do start to become a fringe party IMO (same as the BC conservatives, but they arrant as prevalent... yet).

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

I love people here acting as if BC politics = American politics.

The BC Libs are centre right and the NDP are centre left. So essentially both are centre governments. Given the platforms of both I’m actually okay with either winning a majority. Both have aspects I prefer and don’t prefer.

The only thing I don’t want is another coalition with the Greens. They do start to become a fringe party IMO (same as the BC conservatives, but they arrant as prevalent... yet).

The experience is very different for people who are not in a position of privilege, speak for yourself, my family was devastated by the BC Liberals, I was thrown into foster care at the very time they made such critical cuts. They kept the minimum wage to an abysmally low level, allowed money laundering to occur unabated, and continued to allow via policies of cruelty, the extreme impoverishment of the disabled. As far as i'm concerned the BC Liberal;s might as well be the devil based on how they treated my family.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

The lead really is that large to begin with, the nDP has reached a polling ceiling of around 49%. The only direction the ndp can go from here is down and the libs can only go up. The result is that the BC Libs could lose the popular vote by as much as 4 percent and still win more seats.

I remember the disaster that was 2013's election, I guess i'm still scarred from that.

It would depend on vote distribution; the Liberal's have their votes more distributed across rural regions, while the NDP is more concentrated on the Island and the Lower Mainland. Depending on how some of the suburb ridings go, it could swing between the NDP and the Liberals.

[zahav]

I don't know if the Libs will win this, I am surprised how some on here think the NDP is losing, they seem to be in the lead to me. For the first time, I wouldn't be mad if the NDP won. I have always been interested in politics but more so economics, and so was a BC Lib supporter always. They had been in power since I was in grade 11 (do the math lol), but I remember the early 2000s NDP were such a disaster, and the Liberals really changed the course of the province tremendously, and it never really had a slow down other than the global 2008-09, and we still did relatively better than most places. And the province went from a last place standing to near the top the entire time they were in. I am not saying they are perfect, not at all. But you can see why people kept voting them in.

So in 2017 I had no idea what an NDP gvt. would look like, other than the fear of going to the bottom of the pack again. But it didn't happen, and they seem to have a good grip on things, and the province has been doing well still. Granted I am not on the same page with them on everything still, but I am in a different voting state of mind now than 2017, when I was so disspointed when NDP won. I am on the fence who I will vote for now (unheard of before!!), but if the NDP won I'd be fine.

HOWEVER... some good NDP MLAs aren't running anymore ie. Carole James. If they appoint a crappy Minster of Finance, that could be bad. Or another cabinet department. It would be like 1991, when Mike Harcourt came in and the province was good through the early 90s. But then years of revolving door leaders, more scandals, business unfriendliness, etc. That's when it got bad. I hope Horgan doesn't get in that position, it would be bad for us all

[rofina]

Originally Posted by zahav

I don't know if the Libs will win this, I am surprised how some on here think the NDP is losing, they seem to be in the lead to me. For the first time, I wouldn't be mad if the NDP won. I have always been interested in politics but more so economics, and so was a BC Lib supporter always. They had been in power since I was in grade 11 (do the math lol), but I remember the early 2000s NDP were such a disaster, and the Liberals really changed the course of the province tremendously, and it never really had a slow down other than the global 2008-09, and we still did relatively better than most places. And the province went from a last place standing to near the top the entire time they were in. I am not saying they are perfect, not at all. But you can see why people kept voting them in.

So in 2017 I had no idea what an NDP gvt. would look like, other than the fear of going to the bottom of the pack again. But it didn't happen, and they seem to have a good grip on things, and the province has been doing well still. Granted I am not on the same page with them on everything still, but I am in a different voting state of mind now than 2017, when I was so disspointed when NDP won. I am on the fence who I will vote for now (unheard of before!!), but if the NDP won I'd be fine.

HOWEVER... some good NDP MLAs aren't running anymore ie. Carole James. If they appoint a crappy Minster of Finance, that could be bad. Or another cabinet department. It would be like 1991, when Mike Harcourt came in and the province was good through the early 90s. But then years of revolving door leaders, more scandals, business unfriendliness, etc. That's when it got bad. I hope Horgan doesn't get in that position, it would be bad for us all

The Liberals under Christy turned so pro-business and anti-human that it made it easy to vote NDP in 2017. That was my first time voting NDP.

Profit is awesome. I like governments that make me money through favorable laws/rules. But I see there is a limit to this line of thinking. I don't want feast or famine, I would like a little more equality out there to allow people some breathing room.

However, I do hope the NDP steers away a bit from woke politics, I'm not a fan of some of the social justice parts of the party.

All that behind - they still have my vote as of today. Even if its voting against my self interests - and that says a lot about my distrust for the Liberals.

[zahav]

Yes well said. I certainly am far more comfortable with their viewpoints now than I used to be (odd, they say people get more conservative as they age, but I am going a bit opposite). The Liberal direction doesn't feel the same as they were in the Campbell years. Even in the debate, either Furstenau or Horgan said (can't remember which) "the Liberals abandoned all environmental positions in 2011". I was taken aback they made such a pointed comment, basically saying after Campbell left, the party went down. I wish Jody Wilson Raybould would take over the BC Liberals, but I don't think now's the time to do it

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by zahav

Yes well said. I certainly am far more comfortable with their viewpoints now than I used to be (odd, they say people get more conservative as they age, but I am going a bit opposite). The Liberal direction doesn't feel the same as they were in the Campbell years. Even in the debate, either Furstenau or Horgan said (can't remember which) "the Liberals abandoned all environmental positions in 2011". I was taken aback they made such a pointed comment, basically saying after Campbell left, the party went down. I wish Jody Wilson Raybould would take over the BC Liberals, but I don't think now's the time to do it

Jody Wilson Raybould - interesting. I could see alot of people supporting her. I would probably support her if she ran for BC Lib leadership.

but seeing we have a BC Liberal Majority on the horizon it will be a while now for her.

Go Wilky Go!

[WarrenC12]

Last leadership race, Michael Lee and Diane Watts were both top potential candidates, and Wilkinson squeezed through as everybody's 2nd choice on their preferential balloting system.

I think it shows what a failure that is. Watts or Lee would make great leaders and probably be giving Horgan a run for his money.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

Jody Wilson Raybould - interesting. I could see alot of people supporting her. I would probably support her if she ran for BC Lib leadership.

but seeing we have a BC Liberal Majority on the horizon it will be a while now for her.

Go Wilky Go!

You are delusional, NDP has a 14 point lead in today's poll and the BC Liberals are only at 33% in the polls.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

Jody Wilson Raybould - interesting. I could see alot of people supporting her. I would probably support her if she ran for BC Lib leadership.

but seeing we have a BC Liberal Majority on the horizon it will be a while now for her.

Go Wilky Go!

I think she would more closely align with the Provincial NDP than with the Liberals. IMHO, she would not do well with the BC Liberals

[rofina]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

Jody Wilson Raybould - interesting. I could see alot of people supporting her. I would probably support her if she ran for BC Lib leadership.

but seeing we have a BC Liberal Majority on the horizon it will be a while now for her.

Go Wilky Go!

I admire your positivity. I don't see them forming government, and certainly not a majority one.

However, that would be a win for me. None of the guilt of voting Liberal, and all the benefits. Much more favorable party for my situation.

[theman23]

Still haven't received my mail in ballot.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by theman23

Still haven't received my mail in ballot.

Might have to vote in the advanced polls, a lot of mail in ballots won't make it in time, either vote in the advance polls or wait until your ballot arrives and drop it off at a polling place

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Might have to vote in the advanced polls, a lot of mail in ballots won't make it in time, either vote in the advance polls or wait until your ballot arrives and drop it off at a polling place

I probably wont vote at all, in that case. None of the parties are particularly appealing to me. I dislike the NDP for deciding to call an election now, but probably not enough for me to want them out of power.

[WarrenC12]

Elections BC recommends mailing in your ballot by Oct 17th to ensure it's there in time. But yes you can drop off at any district electoral office until election day. Most are open every day, if not 24/7 drop boxes.

[whatnext]

BC Liberal candidate for Chilliwack-Kent, Laurie Throness, resigns:

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/10/15/...rom-caucus-after-controversial-comments/