2021 Newfoundland Election - Campaign Day 2 - Districts to Watch
In the absence of any credible, top-quality national polling data, we're sort of just sitting here trying to figure out how things will swing on February 13th. There's no doubt in my mind that the Liberals are likely the front runners in this election, and are squarely in majority territory right now, but with only suspect regional polling from MQO and Narrative (formerly CRA), which were off the mark in 2019, and really off the mark in 2015, it's hard to take a stab, at this moment, if the gap between the Liberals and PCs is small enough to make this election competitive.
Even in the absence of polling information, we can easily pinpoint several districts which will be key to victory on election night to both the Liberals and the PCs. Many of these districts were also "key" districts to the 2019 election.
Bonavista
A mere 45 vote difference catapulted Craig Pardy and the PCs to victory in this district in 2019. As it was the last swing district to finish reporting its polls on election night, it was also the nail in the coffin to any hopes of an election-night Liberal majority government. With a margin of victory that razor thin, all eyes should be on Bonavista come election night. For the Liberals, it's a district they need to flip on the path to a majority, and for the PCs it's a district they need to improve their numbers in if they have any hope of forming government. The real question is: will people vote out a MHA who has only held office for 1.5 years? That's a question that will come up time and time again in Eastern/Central NL.
The Path to Victory in 2019: PC candidate Craig Pardy defeated incumbent Liberal Neil King by 0.9%. Pardy did this by winning the majority of polls in the smaller, northern communities, while keeping margins close in larger population centres (Bonavista/Catalina).
Burin-Grand Bank
With Liberal incumbent Carol Anne Haley not seeking re-election, the popular former staffer of Judy Foote is no longer the face of the Liberal party in this district. Likewise, the PCs will not be running former MP/MHA and star candidate Bill Matthews this election cycle. So what do we have? Liberals are running with Paul Pike, mayor of St. Lawrence, while the PCs are running Fred Dodge, former radio personality. So basically we have a blank slate election in a district which was decided by just 177 votes in 2019. This is a critical hold for the Liberals if they're looking for a majority government. If the PCs have any hope of forming government, this should be the first district they look to flip. Can St. Lawrence mayor Paul Pike flip St. Lawrence, which overwhelmingly voted PC in 2019?
The Path to Victory in 2019: Liberal incumbent Carol Anne Haley defeated PC candidate Bill Matthews by 3.2%. She achieved this by winning numerous polls on the southern Burin Peninsula, along with the larger centers of Grand Bank and Fortune, compared to Bill Matthews winning the larger centers of Burin, St. Lawrence, and smaller communities around the Marystown area.
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
Perhaps the most shocking result from 2019 happened in this district, when cabinet minister Al Hawkins lost to the PC candidate Chris Tibbs by a comfortable margin of 349 votes. Polling during the 2019 election cycle indicated that the governing Liberals were in trouble in Central NL, and while election night results were not as dire as predicted, the residents of GFW-B swung hard. The town of Grand Falls-Windsor is essentially the majority of the voter-base for this district, of which incumbent Chris Tibbs is a resident. The Liberals have nominated Deborah Ball for this district, though I can not find much information regarding their background. None the less, as is the same with the other two districts, this is a key flip for the Liberals and a key hold for the PCs.
The Path to Victory in 2019: PCs Chris Tibbs defeated Liberal incumbent Al Hawkins by 6.3%. He achieved this victory by winning virtually all but two of the polls in the major population centre of Grand Falls-Windsor.
Labrador West
All eyes on Lab West this election after an insane finish in 2019 where the NDP candidate Jordan Brown defeated Liberal incumbent Graham Letto by just two votes. It's clearly evident here how important this district is for the Liberals, where a measly 3 votes was the difference between a minority and majority government. While we know the NDP won't be forming government next month, they would certainly like to keep the seats they currently have (or possibly expand). Their two urban St. John's seats are extremely safe, however Labrador West could be shaky. For the Liberals, they need to make this an easy flip; leaving a district like Lab West off the board while trying to make gains elsewhere is a lost opportunity.
The Path to Victory in 2019: NDPs Jordan Brown defeated Liberal incumbent Graham Letto by 0.06%. Wins at the polls in Labrador City and Wabush were basically evenly split.
Placentia-St. Mary's
This district weighed very heavy on my mind back in 2019, with the controversy surrounding Liberal MHA Sherri Gambin-Walsh, and lets just say things have not improved for her in the last 1.5 years. In the last election, Gambin-Walsh had relative easy competition, however this time around the PCs have nominated Calvin Manning, brother of the ever popular Fabian Manning, to try and dethrone the Liberals. Name recognition goes a long way in Newfoundland politics, and Manning is as big as they come. The Liberals can't afford to lose any current seats they hold in the HOA, which makes this a must-win for them. Expect this one to be much closer than it was in the last election.
The Path to Victory in 2019: Liberal incumbent Sherri Gambin-Walsh defeated PC candidate Hilda Whelan by 8.9%. She did so by winning all but one of the polls in the Placentia-Dunville area, along with numerous smaller communities on the southern part of the Avalon Peninsula.
Placentia West-Bellevue
PW-B was essentially the district which best represented the 2019 election in my eyes. A district which I initially passed off as an easy Liberal hold, but one where PC momentum progressively built throughout the campaign, leading up to an election night victory for PC candidate Jeff Dwyer over Liberal incumbent Mark Browne. While Dwyer may be quite popular, the Liberals have nominated Marystown mayor Sam Synard as their candidate for this election. While Sam has had mostly poor results during his previous runs for provincial/federal office, with Marystown being the largest population centre in the district, being able to flip the town, which overwhelmingly voted Conservative in both the provincial and federal elections, could very well win him the district. This will be the race to watch come election night.
The Path to Victory in 2019: PC candidate Jeff Dwyer defeated Liberal incumbent Mark Browne by 11.5%. He achieved this by winning all but one polls in Marystown, the largest population centre, along with all but 3 polls on the Burin Peninsula.
Other districts to watch:
Mount Scio: This district is likely the NDPs best chance at a gain, as they are runing Sheliagh O'Leary there. She's a highly polarizing candidate, but does give them the best chance at sniffing victory there.
Windsor Lake: If the Liberals really are doing as well as MQO/Narrative think, then look for this district to flip Liberal, meaning that PC leader Ches Crosbie would lose his seat.
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