Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Bdawe

Ugh, all indications so far that battery-electric busses are simply not ready for prime time outside of maybe subtropical areas.

That could slowly be changing - Mercedes-Benz’s newest electric city bus uses solid-state batteries

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by Sheba

That could slowly be changing - Mercedes-Benz’s newest electric city bus uses solid-state batteries

Or Proterra

[mellowyellow]

Very interesting piece from North Shore News today: (https://www.nsnews.com/opinion/other-voi...-shore-to-where-the-action-is-1.24212705)

I'm not sure I agree with all of his comparisons, and whether Ambleside-Metrotown is a "corridor" so to speak.

I thought I was the only one that thought we should strike an agreement on having the Second Narrows Rail Bridge redone as rail+truck+transit, I suggested this on many platforms and I'm glad someone else thinks this is an option. I'm also glad he brought up the potential of adding the WCE station on the crossing vicinity (which would get support from Burnaby's mayor who wanted a north willingdon stop at one point).

I'm also unclear what counts as light rail compared to skytrain (in terms of capacity if it's like Canada Line haha), and whether the R2 RapidBus is already sufficient with dedicated lanes (for a good portion of the route).

I think it's more important to link Phibbs with Hastings line (to/from downtown) (hence my support for 5B2) and have it spur to Metrotown potentially, and have Phibbs serve as a transit hub for north shore with skytrain/lrt (aside from lonsdale).

People must remember it's not just north shore resident/job traffic but also it being a destination (tourism/hiking) and through traffic for the Sea-to-Sky corridor and ferries and Whistler/etc. Transitioning resident/worker traffic will ease volume to give way to through-traffic afterall. I'm glad the author touched on the shift-to-transit potential.

OTHER VOICES: Light rail transit the right way to connect the North Shore to where the action is
Stephan Nieweler / Contributing writer
SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 12:00 PM

The North Shore is ready for rapid transit now. This is the message my team has been delivering to business leaders, politicians and planners over the past two years, since our preliminary research findings uncovered superior development conditions compared to multibillion-dollar rapid transit corridors planned in Vancouver and Surrey.

Since then, we extended the scope of our initial study area (Ambleside to Capilano University) onwards to Metrotown as part of a new rapid transit corridor connecting the North Shore directly to the Expo Line, BCIT, Millennium Line, Hastings RapidBus and the West Coast Express (via a new PNE station).

Undoubtedly, over the past decade, there has been a significant negative slide in our quality of life and business competitiveness as the reliability of our transport system has faltered and buses were deemed the solution.

In light of well-placed density, a jobs/housing/amenities balance, and the millions of annual car trips to our mountain/canyon attractions, we feel that an efficient, integrated and affordable rail transit solution will deliver strong ridership and positive economic impacts for the North Shore and region.

My team’s recent work indicates favourable conditions in Burnaby as some of Western Canada’s tallest buildings have been developed in Brentwood and Metrotown, with plans for tens of thousands of additional jobs and housing units.

The growth of dense, suburban transit hubs along the Expo and Millennium Line will far exceed Vancouver’s development in the future – and the North Shore needs to be connected to the action.

Transit ridership is driven by jobs, housing and amenities within a five minute walk (400 m). Current population and employment within 400 metres of the Ambleside-Phibbs-Metrotown corridor totals 225,000 today, as compared to 100,000 in the proposed UBC subway corridor, and 50,000 in Surrey.

In the longer term, growth is much higher between Ambleside-Metrotown with 330,000 combined jobs and residents, as compared to 135,000 (UBC) and 80,000 (Surrey). Twenty per cent of long-term regional growth is slated for the North Shore and Burnaby, as opposed to 1.5% at UBC.

With only two routes across the harbour and 75% of current trips by car, there is a high potential for a significant shift to transit (unlike UBC) if a reliable rail link is established.

While I am pleased to see the recent BIRT study, I am concerned that SkyTrain is assumed and that the five shortlisted options are mostly focused on connecting Lonsdale with downtown, rather than including Ambleside-Phibbs.

The cost of a direct SkyTrain tunnel between downtown and Lonsdale would be enormous, as the length and/or depth of the harbour would cause major engineering challenges. At a cost of many billions of dollars, I do not believe that our leaders will pursue the tunnel options anytime soon, with some indicating it belongs in TransLink’s 2050 plan.

I believe we must bring rapid transit to the North Shore by the end of this decade.

We must agree on an integrated and innovative solution, including a route, technology and financing concept that will deliver good value for money.

It must bring significant benefits to users on Day 1, by connecting dense hubs in a time that is competitive with driving. From the Burnaby hubs, Coquitlam and Surrey would be reached in 20 minutes. The new PNE West Coast Express Station would offer direct connections to Maple Ridge in 30 minutes and downtown Vancouver in five minutes.

By adopting flexible light rail transit technology, the alignment could run on the surface (with signal priority) at a much lower cost (Canadian average $88 million/km) than elevated SkyTrain ($233 million/km in Surrey) or subway ($500 million/km on Broadway), while minimizing disruption to established neighbourhoods west of Lonsdale.

Where feasible (Lonsdale-PNE), elevated sections would maximize speed.

The establishment of partnerships with the federal government and CN Rail to replace the aging Second Narrows freight rail bridge would facilitate the development of a new bridge for freight rail, light rail and trucks (easing traffic on the Ironworkers Crossing), while leveraging multiple pools of funding from the public and private sector, and reducing the costliest part of any BIRT option to millions rather than billions.

With up to $10 billion being contemplated for rapid transit in Surrey and Vancouver this decade, we must ensure the North Shore is considered at the same time.

This will require immediate funding of around $2 million to develop a preferred concept within two years.

As a voter, I am watching to see who will commit to this – anything less will result in painful bus rides and clogged roads for decades to come.

Stephan Nieweler is a planning and transportation instructor, and doctoral candidate, in the department of geography at SFU. Prior to returning to academia, he was involved in the planning of rapid transit systems while based in the U.K., India, Toronto and at TransLink in Vancouver.

[jollyburger]

When you mention a five minute connection by West Coast Express from a PNE station to downtown Vancouver doesn't that instantly discredit any qualifications you have in regards to transit planning?

This whole idea that Ambleside to Metrotown as a corridor is ridiculous. You can't take two massive population centres then dump in some "village" and then tout the population and job numbers as reasoning for increased transit funding.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by mellowyellow

Very interesting piece from North Shore News today: (https://www.nsnews.com/opinion/other-voi...-shore-to-where-the-action-is-1.24212705)

I found the constant comparisons to the Broadway - UBC Skytrain to be amusing. 'Ooh that area won't grow much or shift many more riders to transit' while completely ignoring the new area planning or that the 99 is absolutely swamped.

Originally Posted by jollyburger

This whole idea that Ambleside to Metrotown as a corridor is ridiculous. You can't take two massive population centres then dump in some "village" and then tout the population and job numbers as reasoning for increased transit funding.

Yeah I'm with you on that. I have no issue with a transit crossing connecting Phibbs to Kootenay Loop and then down to Metrotown - after all the plan is to keep the Seabus so it's not like people won't be able to get from the North Shore to downtown Van. But trying to claim that Ambleside to Metrotown is a major corridor that needs some kind of rapid rail is silly.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by mellowyellow

Very interesting piece from North Shore News today: (https://www.nsnews.com/opinion/other-voi...-shore-to-where-the-action-is-1.24212705)

I'm not sure I agree with all of his comparisons, and whether Ambleside-Metrotown is a "corridor" so to speak.

I thought I was the only one that thought we should strike an agreement on having the Second Narrows Rail Bridge redone as rail+truck+transit, I suggested this on many platforms and I'm glad someone else thinks this is an option. I'm also glad he brought up the potential of adding the WCE station on the crossing vicinity (which would get support from Burnaby's mayor who wanted a north willingdon stop at one point).

I'm also unclear what counts as light rail compared to skytrain (in terms of capacity if it's like Canada Line haha), and whether the R2 RapidBus is already sufficient with dedicated lanes (for a good portion of the route).

I think it's more important to link Phibbs with Hastings line (to/from downtown) (hence my support for 5B2) and have it spur to Metrotown potentially, and have Phibbs serve as a transit hub for north shore with skytrain/lrt (aside from lonsdale).

People must remember it's not just north shore resident/job traffic but also it being a destination (tourism/hiking) and through traffic for the Sea-to-Sky corridor and ferries and Whistler/etc. Transitioning resident/worker traffic will ease volume to give way to through-traffic afterall. I'm glad the author touched on the shift-to-transit potential.

I know people are going to jump all over the LRT debate, but ignore that for now. I feel like every technology should be studied and the pros and cons of each weighed against cost savings/increases and regional vs local impacts.

But what I can't stand is comparing a corridor that stretches 22km across the the region and comparing it to much shorter lines.

It's not laid out in the article, but in linked paper, the UBC line and Surrey line they are comparing to aren't what you might think.

The UBC line mentioned is actually just Arbutus to UBC. The Surrey line, is the Newton-Guildford line.

So in the opinion piece he is comparing a 22km line with a 10 km line in Surrey (that's no longer happening) and a 7km extension to UBC.

More than half the 225,000 people close to the proposed NS corridor are NOT on the north shore. The study states there are just over 100,000 people/jobs in the catchment area on the North Shore. The line is 13 km long to cross the bridge (not counting their spur to Cap U which is included in the pop stats).

So this study counting 120,000 people who don't live or work on the North Shore to inflate the numbers. If anything, that's a signal that the Burnaby coridor should be studied, regardless if it goes to the North Shore or not.

But you can't justify the huge capital expense of crossing the Burrard inlet by counting people who won't ever benefit from a line crossing the Burrard inlet.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

So this study counting 120,000 people who don't live or work on the North Shore to inflate the numbers. If anything, that's a signal that the Burnaby coridor should be studied, regardless if it goes to the North Shore or not.

But you can't justify the huge capital expense of crossing the Burrard inlet by counting people who won't ever benefit from a line crossing the Burrard inlet.

Based on the growth projected in Metrotown/Brentwood/Lougheed there will be no shortage of transit proposals. But pretty much agreed it's a total red herring on what if any rapid transit should go out to the North Shore.

It's the exact same thing with trying to say 20% percentage growth but you never mention the base number. Sure you can say there's supposedly 20% growth on the North Shore but what miniscule number are you starting with?

2019:

The population of the North Shore grew by 1,450 people over the last year, a growth rate of 0.7 per cent.

https://www.nsnews.com/news/north-shore-...20their,755%20from%20the%20year%20before.

[xd_1771]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

I know people are going to jump all over the LRT debate, but ignore that for now...
...
...But you can't justify the huge capital expense of crossing the Burrard inlet by counting people who won't ever benefit from a line crossing the Burrard inlet.

So hm... this... "expert"... wow it actually interests me greatly that he's faculty within SFU's Department of Geography. But anyway,

This is a guy that wants the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain built like the Canada Line - with short platforms, short trains, and single-tracked termini.

This is a guy that wants the Broadway Subway redirected north (away from UBC) after reaching Broadway & Granville and terminated underneath Burrard and Georgia.

And if you thought that alignment wasn't silly enough, his "alternative 2" is to build Broadway Subway as a never-studied cut and cover subway line on 6th avenue, as far as only Granville Street, and because it is "only 3 blocks away".

In his "high impact plan" for the region, UBC is only worth an LRT, Fraser Highway is only worth an LRT that must also send all passengers north through Guildford before going to either Lougheed or Surrey City Centre, and the Expo Line should pursue an extension to King George Blvd and Highway 10 because the Skybridge is apparently a "choke point" (ok people, can we stop with the Skybridge is at capacity nonsense? The Skybridge is operating below its ultimate expansion capacity and it is mathematically possible to double its passenger throughput compared to today through the upgrades in the Expo Line Upgrade Strategy and a change of operations; ask me and I will gladly give you the math).

Don't even take my word for it, see for yourself.

Basically his entire concepts are based on numerous misconceptions and also the idea of completely ripping apart the current rapid transit proposals, which is not even necessary at this point because our proposals, though in some cases posing a higher relative capital cost, have very good business cases. In short, yes, he is that type.

And lastly, this is a guy that was specifically appealing to the District of North Vancouver (yes, that North Vancouver) so that they would adopt his proposals.

Is this not basically everything we need to know?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Digging further, this isn't the first time he's pitched this.

Digging ever further, he lives on the North Shore. At the risk of being a Karen, who wants to bet that he's describing a line that overlaps his own commute, which he's coincidentally decided is uniquely crowded and the most needy in the entire metro?

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

...More than half the 225,000 people close to the proposed NS corridor are NOT on the north shore....

That's what immediately came to mind for me too.

The other is - if he teaches at SFU why does he live on the North Shore?

[Tvisforme]

As others have mentioned, the proposal combines the North Shore with Burnaby to argue that there is a large enough growth potential to justify the idea. However, it ignores the reality that the North Shore is not forecast to grow even remotely like Burnaby and most other Metro municipalities. There's also not the desire on the part of the population to accept massive increases in density such as with Metrotown.

[libtard]

Originally Posted by libtard

I think a lot of people on this forum are trying to convince themselves and others that public transit levels are going to return to normal and there won’t be a fundamental shift any the public AWAY from public transit when they facts are staring them right in the face.

So are we ready to admit I was right and transit levels will never recover? And people actually said in this thread that we will soon be back to being squished onto buses like sardines. That will NEVER happen again

[jollyburger]

They can barely get any kind of transit let alone new roads (east-west) across the North Shore so I think they'll have time to figure that one out let alone funding it.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by libtard

So are we ready to admit I was right and transit levels will never recover? And people actually said in this thread that we will soon be back to being squished onto buses like sardines. That will NEVER happen again

If the virus is gone and ridership is still low, you're a prophet. If neither of those things are true, all of this is hot air.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by libtard

So are we ready to admit I was right and transit levels will never recover? And people actually said in this thread that we will soon be back to being squished onto buses like sardines. That will NEVER happen again

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

If the virus is gone and ridership is still low, you're a prophet. If neither of those things are true, all of this is hot air.

libtard, I also share your predictions about transit levels and city exodus's but I also agree with Migrant that we absolutely cannot call anything a fact until the virus is over. As of right now the lower transit riderships and work-from-home models are just trending really hard and are not indicative of a permanent change...yet.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by libtard

So are we ready to admit I was right and transit levels will never recover? And people actually said in this thread that we will soon be back to being squished onto buses like sardines. That will NEVER happen again

We will be blowing away ridership records when the Arbutus extension opens. Take that to the bank.

[Rico]

Service drives ridership so if we cut service it will be a self fulfilling prophecy. My prediction is it will take until Broadway opens before a complete recovery but after Broadway opens I think ridership will skyrocket

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by libtard

So are we ready to admit I was right and transit levels will never recover? And people actually said in this thread that we will soon be back to being squished onto buses like sardines. That will NEVER happen again

Just curious, in Feb/March how much toilet paper did you buy?

Did you see everyone else buying it, and a low supply on shelves, and think to yourself, this is it, I need to buy a lot now because it's never coming back? Did you go on Amazon and overpay for a bidet?

Did you buy all the meat in the supermarket? Did you stock up on soap?

Saying Transit ridership will never recover while the virus is still infecting people is a bit like seeing some empty shelves and going into panic.

Will there be an impact? Yes. Do we know what that impact is and how long it will last? No.

In fact, it could be good. Skytrain was getting too busy at the peak hour. Does Skytrain need to be at 110% capacity during peak hours to be viable? I don't think so.

What if people travel to work less frequently, or if can travel during a wider window (I fully expect the Vancouver fixation with office hours to die off in favor of shorter office core hours)?

Demand for transit will flatten a bit and maybe smooth out over a longer peak. Driving to work is still more expensive than transit, and if transit wasn't standing room only every day, people would still take it.

Also, new studies have been released showing that transit isn't a significant vector for spreading the virus.

https://www.apta.com/research-technical-...emic-global-research-and-best-practices/

This report is based on a comprehensive review of United States and global research regarding COVID-19 transmission and public transit, interviews with public health experts, and new analysis of various data sources. This September 2020 APTA commissioned study by Sam Schwartz details the following findings:

1- No direct correlation has been found between use of urban public transit and transmission of COVID-19

2- There will be long-term health consequences if people in large numbers switch from public transit to private cars.

3- An analysis of public transit ridership in multiple cities over the past three months shows no correlation with the rise or fall of local COVID-19 cases

4- Mask wearing has been shown to be effective at reducing person-to-person transmission

5- There are several possible explanations for the lack of correlation between the increase in public transit ridership and increasing COVID-19 cases

6- It appears that what you do at the end of a trip affects the probability of contracting the virus far more than the mode of travel.

Also, hopefully new EI benefits and sick day laws encourage people to stay at home when feeling any kind of illness, and more offices encourage it. Gone will be the era of someone having 2 sick days a year. Thus people won't feel obligated to travel to work while sick. That alone would make it feel a lot safer and bring people back.

And none of this is taking into account potential vaccines.

The memory of the Spanish Flu faded, and I think we forget things quicker now a days too.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

Also, new studies have been released showing that transit isn't a significant vector for spreading the virus.

I'm a huge transit advocate, but even I worry that messaging about the safety of transit during the pandemic may have more of a basis in trying to promote a desired policy outcome rather than being soundly based on science. We had similar messaging at the start of the pandemic with regard to masks due to the fear of a mask shortage, and look how that turned out.

It's well established that the basic formula for COVID transmission risk is:

distance x proximity

The closer you are to a contagious person, and the longer you're in that position, the higher the risk. Doubling the duration effectively doubles the risk.

If transit ridership was to return to pre-pandemic levels, I for one would be extremely averse to standing cheek to jowl with someone on the Skytrain for half an hour from Surrey to downtown, mask or no, regardless of how many studies tried to convince me that it was safe. Especially during the humid, moisture-laden days of winter.

I do believe that transit levels will recover, but not until the worst of the pandemic is behind us.

[Express691]

Wrong thread