Good signs for LRT as Transpo nears financial crossroad with unpredictable ridership
Jon Willing, Ottawa Citizen
Publishing date: Sep 16, 2020 • Last Updated 19 hours ago • 4 minute read
The LRT system might be on track for an unprecedented period of stability with transit officials on Wednesday describing headway on the list of repairs, but there’s deep uncertainty on the horizon for OC Transpo as cooler months approach and loyal customers remain housebound because of the pandemic.
Transit commissioners received mostly good news about the state of the Confederation Line after general manager John Manconi opened a meeting saying “we have collectively made significant progress” fixing the $2.1-billion LRT system with a heightened level of commitment from the Rideau Transit Group (RTG) and affiliate Rideau Transit Maintenance (RTM).
RTG, which is still operating under a notice of contract default issued by the city in March, must have 15 trains on the line for peak-hour LRT service and the company has managed to maintain that level of service since Sept. 8.
When comparing the scheduled kilometres against the actual kilometres travelled by trains, September service so far had been operating over 98 per cent, which is exactly where Transpo wants to see it. One hundred per cent would be ideal, but Transpo knows high-90s is realistic.
Manconi said he hasn’t had to rip into the new management of RTG and RTM, signalling a turning point in the relationship between the city and the rail contractors. According to Manconi, there have been no disagreements over RTG’s maintenance priorities or the amount of resources.
Still, Manconi has contracted more expert consultants to weigh in on the progress of RTG’s remediation plan. He’s sending the bill to RTG.
Transpo’s director of operations, Troy Charter, described how RTG has improved the train brakes, overhead catenary system, train traction power, train doors, train auxiliary power supply and the train heating and cooling system.
LRT needs to win credibility in the winter. The period between last January and March saw the worst operations, with performance rates hitting as low as 88 per cent in January, largely attributed to vehicle power problems.
Charter said RTG is installing natural gas-powered heaters on track switches in three areas east of Tremblay Station where many of the switch problems happened last winter. In the west end, RTG is upgrading the electric heaters on track switches. The switches control train movements on the tracks and the heaters clear the snow and ice.
The stabilization of the LRT system brings financial implications for RTG, the city and fare-paying customers.
For RTG, it means the company is eligible to receive maintenance payments for meeting contracted service levels.
And for the city, it means considering if there will be an increase to 2020 fares, which city council has frozen because of the LRT problems.
Manconi said it’s premature to talk about a fare increase in 2020, but as the year winds down and the city attempts to lock in as much revenue certainty as possible, the transit prices will become a point of debate. A full calendar year without a previously planned 2.5-per-cent fare increase puts double the pressure on the 2021 budget, which in normal times would likely call for another modest increase.
The city’s budget process for the upcoming year usually begins in November.
Early indications suggest transit service won’t be trimmed to save money, even though ridership at the end of August was 33 per cent of what it usually would be at that time of year.
There’s no telling how many more transit riders will return as employers implement, or reduce, work-from-home regimes.
”We’re not bringing forward cuts as part of the (2021) budget,” Manconi said.
Coun. Riley Brockington pushed Manconi to have a financial plan to protect taxpayers, even if it means installing fewer rolls of toilet paper in washrooms.
The chair of the transit commission, Coun. Allan Hubley, dismissed Brockington’s musings about toilet paper savings during a post-meeting press conference, saying “we’re not into the weeds like that right now.”
Hubley said he’ll be looking for “flexibility” in the transit budget so Transpo can make adjustments if necessary.
Coun. Theresa Kavanagh wondered about the prospect of dipping further into the tax base to fund public transit, but it’s a major policy decision that would need to happen at city council. Transpo is currently funded half by transit fares and half by property taxes.
If the city doesn’t want to jack up fares or property taxes, and if Transpo doesn’t want to reduce service, the only way the agency will have money to maintain the same level of operations is if the upper governments send huge amounts of money.
The federal and provincial governments have done that for 2020, committing billions to help public transit agencies backfill their operational deficits because of COVID-19.
City management doesn’t know, however, if the other governments are prepared to backstop transit agencies for 2021 and beyond.
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