Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Taeolas]

I think the Greens can be pleased with the results. They held their ground, but they almost grabbed Freddy North, and almost had a surprise flip in Moncton Centre. The snafu with the Mount A students didn't seem to hurt them ultimately.

I'm a bit disappointed in the results overall, but it is what it is. And it's a fairly weak majority, even with the PA bolstering them so that should temper Higgs' plans a bit.

I guess Woodstock High School is going to need a new principal now, since he's now their MLA.

I do wonder if the next time the Liberals come into power (it is inevitable) they should bring in Ranked Choice voting. While it does weaken them, it will weaken the PC's a hell of a lot more; since the Liberal's side seems to tend to be more fractured party-wise than the PC side tends to be.

Looking at the results on CBC, even with the undeclared ones, all of the wins seem to be by significant margins, so there shouldn't be any ridings in dispute by the end.

[JonHiseler]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I think the Greens can be pleased with the results. They held their ground, but they almost grabbed Freddy North, and almost had a surprise flip in Moncton Centre. The snafu with the Mount A students didn't seem to hurt them ultimately.

I'm a bit disappointed in the results overall, but it is what it is. And it's a fairly weak majority, even with the PA bolstering them so that should temper Higgs' plans a bit.

I guess Woodstock High School is going to need a new principal now, since he's now their MLA.

I do wonder if the next time the Liberals come into power (it is inevitable) they should bring in Ranked Choice voting. While it does weaken them, it will weaken the PC's a hell of a lot more; since the Liberal's side seems to tend to be more fractured party-wise than the PC side tends to be.

Looking at the results on CBC, even with the undeclared ones, all of the wins seem to be by significant margins, so there shouldn't be any ridings in dispute by the end.

Greens did well for themselves. Perhaps a little disappointing for them to not pick up another seat in addition to the three they had, but continuing to gain support in Fredericton bodes well for their future.

[MonctonRad]

Lots of second place finishes for the GRN, the traditional parties (especially the LIB) had better take notice.

I am both surprised and not surprised that Kevin Vickers lost in Miramichi to Michelle Conroy of the PA. By all accounts she is a very popular and hard working MLA. The question now is whether he steps down as Liberal leader. I have a hunch he might.

I am pleased to see Meaghan Mitton retain Tantramar-Memramcook for the GRN. She's another hard working and competent MLA.

Overall, the Liberal vote in southern NB was very soft, with lots of third place and even fourth place results. Their province wide popular vote of 35.5% is only because of overwhelming wins in their traditional ridings in the north. The LIB need to broaden their base badly.............

[MonctonRad]

Vickers just announced his resignation.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I think the Greens can be pleased with the results. They held their ground, but they almost grabbed Freddy North, and almost had a surprise flip in Moncton Centre. The snafu with the Mount A students didn't seem to hurt them ultimately.

I disgree. I think they will be disappointed not to pick up Fredericton-North and to have had a better showing in Restigouche West. Really looking forward to the poll-by-poll results of that riding. Overall I think the Greens were looking to be king-makers in a PC minority and instead have to ride along for four years of PC majority. Not the greatest result they could have had.

Liberals finishing fourth in some southern NB ridings should be signalling big warning signs for them. The party doesn't seem to really know what it stands for or represents at this time, and it really seems like the Greens are supplanting them on social issues at the moment. I'm not sure where the next Liberal leader will come from but they will have to be young and motivated and socially liberal if they're to stand any chance whatsoever in the next election. The Liberal vote as it stands in 2020 is purely Francophone and nothing else.

Overall, to me, this election is about the Liberal urban vote shifting to Green, allowing PC vote splits in key urban ridings to come through (Freddy North, SJ Harbour, Moncton South).

Looking forward, this may be our last election with these current riding boundaries, and the ridings in the future will only become more urban and more focused on urban issues as the province centralizes. This certainly bodes well for a party like the Greens and bodes poorly currently for the Liberals who rely on the rural Francophone vote which will likely lose a riding in time for 2024.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Outside of the 3 ridings the Greens won, they finished 2nd in 13 other ridings. That has to be a win for them. If the Higgs majority doesn’t end up being favourable for the green voters, I can see them making big gains like the Greens did in PEI.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

Outside of the 3 ridings the Greens won, they finished 2nd in 13 other ridings. That has to be a win for them.

Sounds like the GRN is just one small electoral leap from being Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

[Feneant]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Sounds like the GRN is just one small electoral leap from being Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

I hope they get their chance, I didn't like how the liberals ran their campaign where I heard nothing but constant attack ads against Higgs. Even last night when it was clear they were losing they were still dripping with fake positivism. Robert Gauvin was the only one I heard talking who made a lick of sense so maybe with Vickers gone he should throw his hat into the ring to try and bring common sense back to the liberals. I remember prior to the Gallant years I always voted liberal but they've lost their way and at this point I'd never consider giving them my vote.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I think it was both a good and bad night for the Green party. A modest increase in vote share, but placing 2nd in a bunch of ridings. It also has to be very disappointing for them to have performed so poorly in Fredericton North. That should have been a Green pickup, or at the very least a close race. It was neither.

[Taeolas]

Well, they did lead Freddy North for 8 out of 10 polls IIRC. Seeing the poll breakdown results of Freddy North will certainly be interesting. They ultimately fell ~770 votes short, but looking at the bigger picture, that was still one of the closer races of the nights.

Looking at the CBC results, it was the 4th closest race of the night:

Closest races:
1. Carleton-Victoria by 391 (PC to Lib)
2. Memramcook-Tantramar by 523 (Green to Lib)
3. Moncton Centre 723 (Lib to Green; PC were another 83 votes behind Green)
4. Fredericton North by 762 (PC to Green)
5. Moncton East 766 (PC to Lib)
6. Moncton South by 768 (PC to Lib)
7. Miramichi Bay-Neguac by 810 (Lib to PC)
8. Saint John Harbour by 957 (PC to Green, Lib was 17 votes behind Green)

Where I don't mention the third place on those close races, the 3rd place candidate wasn't really that close.

I think it could be argued that vote splitting probably gave SJ Harbor to the PCs, and almost gave Moncton Centre to the PCs.

Carleton-Victoria was just a damn close race, with the PA and Green candidates not really being a factor. (they got 610 and 372 votes respectively, even NDP only got 113)

[Marty_Mcfly]

Strange that even the closest races weren't what most people would consider "close". Carleton-Victoria being the closest race still had a vote share differential of over 5%. I thought there'd be more squeakers, with someone winning by only 2-3% at most. I thought that would be the case for the Greens in Freddy North, but the last 2 polls which reported for them were brutal.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Strange that even the closest races weren't what most people would consider "close". Carleton-Victoria being the closest race still had a vote share differential of over 5%. I thought there'd be more squeakers, with someone winning by only 2-3% at most. I thought that would be the case for the Greens in Freddy North, but the last 2 polls which reported for them were brutal.

I think the lack of squeakers is due to the collapse of the People's Alliance support. It united the right and let the PCs jump ahead vs the split left/centre vote.

Which is why I think it's time the Liberals took realistic action in support of Rank Choice voting (granted Ranked is my preference). As I said earlier (I think), the split left and centre votes are not going away. While the NDP is dead in NB, the Green have stepped up in their place and aren't going anywhere. So while the right tends to always have a united front, the Liberals are always fighting a split vote. Which means they only tend to get into power lately when the Right screws up enough to fracture as well. (or screws up so bad the Liberals get the ABC vote)

Some voting method other than FPTP won't quite guarantee the Libs power all the time (a good thing) but it could lead to more minorities with parties they can work better with in general.

It could also lead to the Right breaking up a bit, leading to some more variety on the right side of the spectrum, including possibly some parts that might be able to work with the centre parties easier.

[MonctonRad]

And this is the reason why I would never support a ranked ballot option, or any form of PR for that matter. A ranked ballot would lead to a perpetual institutionalized Liberal government for the province (and all the corruption, stagnation, obstinacy, institutional paralysis and entitlement that entails). Other forms of PR would lead to perpetual minorities and coalitions, and all the ongoing political instability and paralysis that entails.

The current system works pretty well. It allows the bums to get thrown out every 4-12 years, while allowing for fresh ideas and temporary political stability in the meantime.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And this is the reason why I would never support a ranked ballot option, or any form of PR for that matter. A ranked ballot would lead to a perpetual institutionalized Liberal government for the province (and all the corruption, stagnation, obstinacy, institutional paralysis and entitlement that entails). Other forms of PR would lead to perpetual minorities and coalitions, and all the ongoing political instability and paralysis that entails.

The current system works pretty well. It allows the bums to get thrown out every 4-12 years, while allowing for fresh ideas and temporary political stability in the meantime.

I mean I understand that a conservative voter would never support electoral reform but if we are going down this path of discourse a lengthy PC majority is likely to do very little on climate change, very little or next to nothing for LGBTQ+ rights, womens rights or improve health care access. I guess we can revisit in 4 years and see how they made out. I have low expectations.

Do you feel confident there isn't any corruption in a party led by a lifetime Irving Executive in a province that is dominated by Irvings?

Personally I'd be fascinated to see a coalition between the PCs NDP & Greens where vulnerable populations get more of a voice, climate action can be taken immediately and PC's could play the fiscal conversative role & help on infrastructure. I also support their ideas on tourism tax credits and wouldnt mind seeing those continue.

The liberal party needs a total rebuild after this one. I've seen speculation MP Wayne Long might throw his name into the hat for the leadership race.

[JonHiseler]

Originally Posted by lirette

The liberal party needs a total rebuild after this one. I've seen speculation MP Wayne Long might throw his name into the hat for the leadership race.

I wonder if Rene Ephestion will run for the leadership again

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JonHiseler

I wonder if Rene Ephestion will run for the leadership again

If the Liberals want to avoid being typecast as a rump northern francophone party, then their next leader must be an Anglophone from the south. Rob McKee from Moncton would be a good choice. Wayne Long from Saint John would likely be popular too.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If the Liberals want to avoid being typecast as a rump northern francophone party, then their next leader must be an Anglophone from the south. Rob McKee from Moncton would be a good choice. Wayne Long from Saint John would likely be popular too.

How about someone bilingual from one of the big cities?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

How about someone bilingual from one of the big cities?

Rob McKee would fit the bill.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lirette

Do you feel confident there isn't any corruption in a party led by a lifetime Irving Executive in a province that is dominated by Irvings?

Political corruption is not the domain of any one political party. Of course conservative governments can become corrupt.

The longer that any one government remains in power, the more likely it becomes that they feel entitled to this power, and with this sense of entitlement comes arrogance and corruption. Some of the worst corruption occurs in socialist states in eastern Europe.

A ranked ballot will result in institutional Liberal governance because the Liberals are the most centrist party, and are most likely to be most peoples second choice on the ranked ballot. The Liberals would therefore almost always win in every election, would become complacent and entitled, and ultimately corrupt. Just as bad as the corruption would be self satisfaction, laziness, and inertia.

Things need to be shaken up every so often, and fresh air needs to be directed into the halls of power. We need an electoral system where fear keeps everyone on their toes. A standard FPTP model accomplishes this admirably.

BTW, I am no fan of ideological politics. The best system is when you have two dominant parties, just slightly to the left and the right of centre, so that when the bums on one side are tossed to the curb, the new management coming in will not do anything so drastic to really upset the applecart. Ideology belongs with the smaller fringe third parties, who generally will act as the conscience of the legislature most of the time, with occasional access to the levers of power in minority government situations.

[Bishop2047]

I would like somthing other than FPTP and I understand that many would think this would lead to a Lib dynasty, but all democratic governments are cyclical. People vote Lib or Con most often because they don't want the alternative to take their riding/the balance of power, not necessarily because they are the party that they most align with.

Minority governments IMO are ideal, the issue is when partisan Bologna gets in the way of actual progress. The fear that party-x will get credit for some genuine good choices so party-y kills the initiative is a real problem. Perhaps if it was understood that it was impossible (or nearly impossible) for a party to form majority it would create more real cooperation.