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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
There's a large difference between a few stopping through and say a doubling or tripling of traffic.
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Do you really think that if 10% of the 401's traffic (between the 416 and Kingston, not the Toronto part) moved to Hwy 7, its traffic would double or triple? In other words, Hwy 7 has between 6.7% and 10% the traffic as the 401? Don't forget that the 401 is only a 4 lane highway between the 416 and beyond Belleville, so it only has double the capacity of Hwy 7 (which has 2 lanes). The only way that would happen is if Hwy 7 is severely underutilized, in which case, the increase in traffic wouldn’t be a problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Your estimate is based on numerous assumptions:
1) That EVs will only have 10% fleet share.
2) That only EVs will move to Hwy 7.
3) The majority of traffic on the 401 is bound to/from Montreal.
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Close enough, though a better way to put number 3 is that a minority (i.e. less than half) of the traffic on the 401 is to/from Ottawa. I expect it is significantly less than half. Just look at how little traffic there is on the 416 south of Kemptville, and some of that traffic is bound for the US (or was before COVID). I would argue that the 416 is a better measure of traffic using the 401 from Ottawa to Toronto.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
I'd say that if EVs are only 10% fleet share by 2030, we've done poorly as a society. Even the "30 by 30" goal should result in a higher share.
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I did the math and if ZEV's comprise about 3% of new car sales today, and are projected to reach 10% by 2025 and 30% by 2030, that is a projection that sales will tipple every 5 years (for the time being at least), which is a growth rate of about 24.57%/year (the fifth root of 3 as a percent). If you assume that cars in Ontario last only last about 10 years (I suspect it is a bit higher than that), you can average the percentage of ZEVs sold over 10 years to figure out how many will be on the road. Doing the math, I came to a total of 13.5% of cars on the road being ZEVs in 2030, which is pretty close to my guesstimated 10%, though I will admit it is a bit off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Next, why would you assume that only EVs move to Hwy 7? If the route is as fantastic as you suggest, there should be more traffic moving there.
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It's mostly because people in ICE cars don't really pay much attention to fuel economy while driving. They just drive until the tank is close to empty and fill it up again and just consider the cost of gas a fixed expense without thinking about how they can save money by changing their behaviour.
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
After all, gas is more expensive to waste than electrons.
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That is very true when charging at home or using a public Level 2 charging. When using a DCFC, the cost to charge is much higher, so you want to minimize the number of times you use them, and take a slower, cheaper charge at your destination.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Lastly, the majority of 401 traffic, is mos definitely not Montreal bound. The majority of 401 traffic is still short or medium haul.
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Be they short, medium or long haul, the point remains, a small percentage are going to/from Ottawa, so Hwy 7 isn't an option for them as it would be a detour.
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
I think it's fair game to be frustrated when I think they are taking the lazy way out on policy.
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It is fair to be frustrated. If you consider grabbing low hanging fruit first lazy, then so be it.
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
This is simply reality. It's far more sellable to suggest $10k - 20k to install a handful of Level 2 chargers on a few spots that a handful of residents will use, than to argue for a project that would cost $5k a spot, that most residents won't see themselves using for a decade. You can see how that vote would go at the AGM. This is an example of where government funding could help. Maybe enable the infrastructure work to be done and the individual buyer only has to pay to wire up their spot to the breaker box.
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There are no easy solutions. While it may not seem fair, there is some logic in grabbing the low hanging fruit first. As interest and demand for EVs grows, more condo owners will want to buy them, and install home charging, making the per unit cost cheaper.
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
URL="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita"]Not at the rates we do[/URL]. They also drive substantially fewer kms than we do annually.
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I never said that they did. The shorter distances is, in part, because their big cities are closer together.
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Given how much the Kona costs, I sincerely hope the plan is to keep these things for a decade. The business case for BEVs at these prices is debatable. Even with the rebate. Especially since they don't need anything but a box with wheels for that job. That will change as more models come online. If only the Bolt was cheaper....
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Yet you seem to argue that the rebate isn't helpful?
Given the mileage they likely put on them in a year, I expect the cost savings in maintenance and fuel will be much higher than it is for an average person. Assuming they drive 100km a day (a low estimate IMHO),
using BC Hydro’s EV Calculator, they would save over $4500 a year in fuel costs alone (ignoring the reduced maintenance costs).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
They need smaller and substantially cheaper BEVs. The tech just isn't there yet and the automakers are sort of shafting North America. I am really skeptical that the business case for these really works at the moment.
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Actually the tech is there. Just have a look at the
2019 (and newer) Renault Zoe. It is a five-door subcompact electric car with a 395km WLTP range (WLTP is a bit more optimistic than EPA, so for comparison, the Kona has a 470km WLTP range). Unfortunately the car manufacturers tend to think that North Americans don’t want small cars, so they often aren’t sold here.
It will be interesting to see how the
Kandi K23 and K27 will do when they come to the US later this year (not sure if they are coming to Canada as well).